芬兰经济研究所-寻找即将到来的供应链惊喜：白俄罗斯、俄罗斯和乌克兰的世界出口市场份额（英）-2022.3-16正式版.pdf
Muistio | Brief | 10729.3.2022Jyrki Ali-YrkkETLA Economic Researchjyrki.ali-yrkkoetla.fiJohannes HirvonenETLA Economic Researchjohannes.hirvonenetla.fiPetri RouvinenVTT Technical Research Centre of Finlandpetri.rouvinenvtt.fiSuggested citation:Ali-Yrkk, Jyrki, Hirvonen, Johannes & Rouvinen, Petri (29.3.2022). “In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine”. ETLA Brief No 107. https:/pub.etla.fi/ETLA-Muistio-Brief-107.pdfAbstractThis brief considers the world export market shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine across over five thou-sand commodities (the full dataset is provided online at the same web address as this brief). The aim is to provide a tool for gauging where supply chain disrup-tions might emerge next.Earlier discussion regarding the international trade presence of the three countries has largely revolved around crude oil and natural gas. While they also prominently appear in our analysis, foodstuffs and fertilizers (and the materials thereof) appear to be even more important. With the La Nia weather pat-tern affecting North American crops in the same time window, a global food catastrophe after the coming autumn, if not sooner, seems imminent.The three countries account for about 70% of sunflow-er oil exports globally. Their corresponding share for colza and rape oils, popular substitutes for sunflow-er oil, is over 25%. There are also several narrow and globally minor categories in which the three countries have huge markets shares and in which they might cause disruptions in specific supply chains; examples include specific types of fish and other seafoods.Finland is highly exposed to the consequences of the war (it should be noted, however, that the role of do-mestic provision in is not considered in this brief). For example, practically all of Finlands nickel imports come from Russia, as do a significant share of meth-anol, sawn wood, and crude oil.In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprisesthe world export market shares of belarus, russia and ukraine2ETLA Muistio | ETLA Brief | No 107Miss tuotteissa toimitusketjujen hiri-mahdollisuuksia voi ilmet? Ukrainan, Venjn ja Valko-Venjn maailmankaupan vientimarkkinaosuudetTss muistiossa analysoidaan, millainen rooli Ukrainal-la, Venjll ja Valko-Venjll on eri tuotteissa ja mate-riaaleissa. Tarkastelu tehdn hyvin yksityiskohtaisella tasolla perustuen tuhansiin eri tuotteisiin ja tuoteryh-miin. Tarkoitus on lyt mahdollisia tuotteita tai mate-riaaleja, joissa ilmenevt saatavuusongelmat voivat jat-kossa aiheuttaa hiriit toimitusketjuihin.Hienojakoinen analyysi paljastaa, ett ljyn ja maa-kaasun lisksi nill kolmella maalla on suuria globaa-leja markkinaosuuksia koskien muun muassa ruokien ainesosia, lannoitteita ja niiden raaka-aineita. Niden saatavuusongelmien vakavuus riippuu osittain siit, mis-s mrin korvaavia tuotteita ja raaka-aineita on saata-vissa. Havaitsemme, ett samaiset maat ovat usein kes-keisi mys lhinn korvaavissa tuotteissa.Tulokset osoittavat, ett Suomen tuonnin kannalta eri-tyisesti Venj on monissa raaka-aineissa ja materiaa-leissa keskeinen. Raaka-ljyn ja maakaasun ohella nik-keli, puuta ja metanolia tuotiin paljon Venjlt. Lisksi Venj oli merkittv tuontimaa esimerkiksi lannoittei-den raaka-aineissa (mm. urea, kalium ja fosfori). On kui-tenkin syyt huomata, ett kauppatilastoja hydyntv analyysimme ei huomioi kotimaista tarjontaa.Sek Ukrainan sota ett koronakriisi ovat tuoneet esiin globaaleihin toimitusketjuihin liittyvt riskit. Vaikka n-m ketjut ovat toimineet hyvin useamman vuosikymme-nen, nyt niihin sisltyvt epvarmuudet ovat realisoitu-neet. Tmn takia sek yritysten ett kansantalouden nkkulmista on tunnistettava kriittisi tuoteryhmi, jotka voisivat aiheuttaa merkittvi yhteiskunnallisia hiriit.TiivistelmPh.D. Jyrki Ali-Yrkk is a Research Director at Etla Economic Research and CEO of Etlatieto Oy.M.Sc. Johannes Hirvonen is a Researcher at Etla Economic Research.Ph.D. Petri Rouvinen is Professor of Practice at VTT.KTT Jyrki Ali-Yrkk on Elinkeinoelmn tutkimus- laitoksen tutkimusjohtaja ja Etlatieto Oy:n toimitus-johtaja.KTM Johannes Hirvonen on Elinkeinoelmn tutki-muslaitoksen tutkija.Ph.D. Petri Rouvinen on VTT:n tyelmprofessori.Acknowledgements: This brief has been written as a part of Etlas Company Resilience in the Era of Globaliza-tion research project, funded by Business Finland. Financial support from Business Finland is gratefully acknowledged.Kiitokset: Muistio on tehty osana isompaa Business Finlandin rahoittamaa Etlan hanketta Company Resili-ence in the Era of Globalization. Kiitmme Business Fin-landia hankkeen rahoituksesta.Key words: Ukraine, Russia, Economy, Exports, Dependency, Imports, Trade, WarAvainsanat: Ukraina, Venj, Talous, Tuonti, Vienti, Riippuvuus, Kauppa, SotaJEL: F14, F1, F51, F523In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine1 Background The most important aspect of Russias offensive warfare in Ukraine is the humanitarian one tens of millions of lives have been unnecessarily disrupted, shattered or lost. While all economic aspects are far secondary to the hu-manitarian one, in this brief we concentrate on exports at the most detailed available level.In just days after the beginning of Russias offence, Volk-swagen announced that, since it could no longer source wiring from Ukraine, it was being forced to close two of its plants elsewhere in Europe. Our motivation for this brief is to provide tools for gauging where this kind of surprise might emerge next.There are many angles to thinking about in regard to the economic consequences of the crisis. ING, a Dutch bank, suggests a few broad types of impact that are depicted in Figure 1. INGs pyramid is an apt metaphor. From the vantage point of the global economy, impacts towards the top are intense but concentrated. Impacts towards the bottom are diluted but, due to their wider reach, are potentially more significant for near-term global growth prospects. On this scale, what we touch upon the im-pact on counterparties via international trade linkages is of medium intensity and reach.In this brief, we look at world export market shares de-fined as a countrys net exports in a specified category, divided by the sum of all countries net exports in the same category of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine at the most detailed level possible. When attempting to deter-mine impacts, we focus on the relatively short term with a rather pessimistic view: we assume the cessation of all exports from the three countries, at least in the short term. The six-digit level of the harmonized system (HS) Large but concentrated impactSmall but wide-scale impactDisruption of operations in UkraineDisruption of operations in RussiaDisruption of trade with counterpartiesin Ukraine and/or RussiaHigher commodity pricesHigher energy pricesDeterioratingeconomic outlookDirect effectsIndirect effectsFigure 1 The impact channels of the RussiaUkraine warSource: The authors adaptation of a figure by ING.4ETLA Muistio | ETLA Brief | No 107covers cross-border trade in 5,074 commodities, goods and materials (services are not covered and thus we do not consider them in this brief). We will consider the top few categories in which the three countries are globally significant. In order to provide a better overview, we first consider the more aggregate two-digit level of the same system with 96 categories. We also study some further details for the case of Finland. For those interested, we provide Excel files with the full data, along with the la-bels of each category in Finnish.2 Things to consider when analysing the data When looking at export data with the goal of identifying products at risk of large supply reduction due to the war, an immediate trade-off arises between detailed and aggre-gated levels. On the one hand, detailed exploration can reveal product markets where the three countries have a dominant market position that would have been missed by using aggregated data. On the other hand, too much detail can make drawing useful insights difficult. There-fore, we try to tackle these problems by providing list-ings of important export measures by each product code, both at an aggregated level (an HS 2-digit level) and at a detailed level (an HS 6-digit level).Another challenge comes from identifying products of which the global supply largely depends on Belarus, Rus-sia and Ukraine. One is tempted to list the product codes, either sorting them by the three countries export value or by the share of world exports the three countries hold. Both sorting methods have potential pitfalls which need to be considered when determining the importance of a given category.To give an example, the largest export of the three coun-tries in monetary value, crude oil, amounted to nearly 73 billion dollars in 2020.1 While a massive amount in mon-etary terms, it accounts for less than 17% of total crude oil exports globally. In line with that observation, recent reports exhibit confidence in alternative sources of crude oil supply emerging in place of Russias oil, highlighting that the pure monetary value of exports can overstate the importance of a product. Similarly, the top export prod-uct of the three countries when sorting by market share within the products exports worldwide is frozen Alaskan pollack. The export market size of the said fish is slight-ly less than a billion dollars, of which the exports of the three countries account for 91%. While the cessation of fish exports in the three countries might bear significant negative consequences locally for the exporting countries and the respective markets, it clearly will not affect the world economy and food supply drastically.These two examples serve to underline the need for care-ful and detailed exploration of the world trade statistics when predicting the potential impacts of a halt in trad-ing between the countries at war and other countries. In practice, the importance of a products export is a func-tion of both its export value and market share. We omit attempts to identify this function exactly2 in this brief and instead highlight products with high export value and market share, and let the reader draw his or her own conclusions from our clearly and transparently present-ed open-source data.3Furthermore, various sources have cited world export market shares that are not fully consistent with ours. In this brief, our logic has been to provide simple numbers from a well-regarded international source (World Bank) and make some simple calculations in a fully transpar-ent manner.We also emphasise that we calculate world export market shares based on the net exports defined in our primary data source. The share that we calculate is different from a countrys share of world production since items that do not go across national borders are not included in our calculations. This distinction is likely to be especially im-portant in regard to, for example, perishable foodstuffs that tend to be locally produced and consumed. Unfor-tunately, national production volumes are not available at the same level of aggregation, so the most desirable measure is infeasible.5In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine3 Potential disruption sources of supply chains by product Despite fertilizers accounting for a small share of ag-gregate international trade, their role is vital for human life. In total, the parties (Ukraine, Russia and Belarus) account for 21% of fertilizers global exports (see Figure 2). Among these three countries, Russia is the most im-portant, but the significance of Belarus is also surpris-ingly high. Cereals are directly vital products for human life, but also indirectly vital because grain is also used to feed cows, pigs and other animals. Ukraine and Russia export huge amounts of cereals. Together, they account for one-sixth of the world exports of cereals.Mineral fuels are a product category that has been cen-tral in public discussion relating to the war, so we will only comment on it briefly. The three countries account for about 12% of the worlds exports of mineral fuels. This is an especially important group of products as they 0510152025Tobacco and substitutesCocoa and preparationsSugar and confectioneryFlour and milling productsWood pulp and cellulosic fibresVegetable oils, seeds, grains etc.Organic/inorganic chem./c.Other edible animal produceOres, slag, and ashAluminiumNon-metallic mineralsFood residues, animal feedCopperFish and aquatic ediblesPearls, precious stones, etc.Railway and tram equipmentOther metals (incl. ceramic comp.)Iron and steelWood and articles thereofAnimal or vegetable fats and oilsMineral fuels (and similar)NickelCerealsFertilizersBelarusRussiaUkraine0 2 4 6 8TobaccoCocoaSugarFlourWoodVegetablOrganic/OtherOres,AluminiuNon-FoodCopperFish andPearls,RailwayOtherIron andWoodAnimalMineralNickelCerealsFertilizers% of world exportsFigure 2 The world export market shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in selected broad (HS2) commodity categories (on the left) and the commoditys share of total world exports (on the right)Note: The commodity classes at the two-digit level of the HS (a) with over 10 billion US dollars in world exports in 2020 and (b) in which the combin-ed world export market share of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine was over 2%. Class 99, Commodities not specified according to kind, is excluded.Source: World Integrated Trade Solution, World Bank.6ETLA Muistio | ETLA Brief | No 107amount to almost 8% of the total world exports. Most of these exports in the three countries come from Russia, mainly due to oil and natural gas being Russias central export items. The importance of mineral fuel supply to the world goes without saying not only does it have a direct impact on the fuel and heating prices of consum-ers, but many businesses (in manufacturing and logis-tics, for example) depend on it. Nonetheless, the consen-sus among experts and researchers appears to be that the mineral fuel exports of Russia can be replaced by other sources. This might take some time, as is evident from the quick rise of gasoline prices globally, for example.Our analysis shows that these three countries have sur-prisingly high market shares in certain product groups. Even though the shares in Figure 2 are high, some dom-inant market positions can be missed by using these still rather aggregated figures. Thus, the reliance on some im-portant products is potentially unnoticed. Therefore, it is important to consider the role of these three countries on a more detailed product level (see Figure 3).A more detailed analysis reveals significantly higher mar-ket shares than presented before. Ukraine accounts for nearly half of sunflower oils world exports and Russias 01020304050607080Iron and steel pipes and elements (not cast iron)Plywood, thin (not bamboo)Heterocyclic compoundsFish, froz
