管理经济学讲义二.ppt

Lecture three,© copyright：qinwang 2013Qinwangmail.shufe.edu.cn  SHUFE school of international business,Consumer behavior,Rational or irrational,Rational behavior,Individual Decision is about two facets：In element market，you are supplierIn product market，you are a consumerMoney is not easy to gain. How to make your consumption decisions to maximize total satisfaction from consuming various goods and services.,1、Utility2、Budget3、consumer decision,Utility,Benefits consumers obtain from goods & services they consume is utilityA utility function shows an individuals perception of the utility level attained from consuming each conceivable bundle of goods,Budget,Consumers decision is subject to the constraint that spending on goods exactly equals the individuals money income,Consumers Budget Line,Shows all possible commodity bundles that can be purchased at given prices with a fixed money income,or,Indifference Curves,Locus of points representing different bundles of goods, each of which yields the same level of total utilityNegatively sloped & convex,Constrained Utility Maximization,The best choice: Utility Maximization,Consumer allocates income so that the marginal utility per dollar spent on each goods is the same for all commodities purchased,How to evaluate utility,In 19th century, Jeremy s Bentham (English philosopher and sociologist) hoped: if scientist could create a machine to read the happiness of human beings, that is terrific.,Reservation price as utility?,Reservation price: the highest price a buyer is willing to pay for a goods or service.If you prefer chocolate ice-scream rather than Vanilla ice Cream, you may want to pay more for chocolate ice-scream If you like Puxi more better the Pudong, you may want to pay more rent for the house in Puxi.Reservation price price,Behavior decision,Bees and flies,$2.26 $1.66,Ice-cream experiment,Mental accounting,$100 from salary and $100 from lottery?What is the difference?,Richard Thaler (1980 ),Tableware,$33 $24,Disaster relief,The island was destroyed by typhoon, UN try to give help.,Island one: There are 1000 families, 90% families are destroyed. How much money should support to island one?Island two: there are 18000 families, 10% families are destroyed (you do not know island one), how much money should support to island two?,Colonoscopy,1996, Kahneman had a research on 682 patients in Colonoscopy check. Colonoscopy is a terrible experience for the patients. It takes about 1.5 hours.The patients were divided into two groups: one group were the popular test, after 1.5 hours, draw out the pipe and finished the test; the other group draw out the pipe later, stay the pipe after a while and then draw out.,Marketing test,Simonson&Tversky(1992)have a test on consumers decision on microwave buying: One group has two choices: Emerson($109.99), Panasonic($179.99).The other group has three choices: Emerson($109.99), Panasonic($179.99)， Panasonic($199.99).,The result:When faced two choices, 43% consumers choose to buy Panasonic($179.99); When faced three choice: 60% consumers choose to buy Panasonic($179.99).,Daniel Kahneman,The royal Swedish academy of sciences announced: Daniel Kahneman, from Princeton Univ., winned 2002 Nobel Economics Prize.,for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.,Amos Tversky,Traditional economist established their theory system based on “rational person hypothesis” and use mathematics to construct perfect models. But behavior research try to explain human decision through empirical approach, especially on humans irrational behavior.,Since 70s, Kahneman and Tversky have deep research on behavior decision, they found: peoples behavior is not only effect by benefit factors, but also effected by metal factors. Prospect theory combined psychology with economics, explain decision-making under uncertainty, create a new research field.,You may buy some companies shares at stock market. One day, you bought 10000 shares of A company (10￥/share) according to a friends suggestion，but now, the price of A companys share is falling on to 5￥/share, that means you would loss 50000 yuan. What would you do? sale hold,Test：are you rational?,Now there is a call for you and you go out. When you come back, you find that the shares has been sold out. What would you do? Buy the shares back? yes no,Rational or irrational：election,Three candidates: A/B/C; voters:17First round：A/6，B/6，C/5Two voters who in first round vote for B, in second round would vote for AThree voters who in first round vote for C, in second round would vote for A.Second round:A/9;B/8A wins,If A shows a heroic event before the election, that makes somebody changed their decision (two person who vote for B in the first round and would vote for A in second round, now vote for A in the first round)In first round: A/8, B/4, /C/5In second round:A/8, C/9C wins,Irrationality：sunk cost fallacy,The Trade Union gave you a concert ticket tonight. The price is 500 yuan。But when you go out to the concert, the weather is terrible. It rains cats and dogs. Go to the concert or not? go dont go,The ticket is not from the trade union, but you bought it yourself, go to the concert or not？ go dont go,Conclusion：people decide to do something not because of future benefit, but effect by loss for the previous period .Sunk cost: retrospective (past) costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered.,Be bogged down deeper and deeper,You are a manager of a medicine company and you want to research a new analgesic(止痛药). Your competitor has been developed the same analgesic successfully and begins to do marketing. If you invest in the research, it may cost you 500,000 yuan to develop the medicine. But in the market, something is uncertainty, you may loss 5,000,000(high possibility)，and you may gain 25,000,000(low possibility)。Do it or not? do give up,The research has processed for some time and you have spent 5,000,000 on it, invest more 500000, you may succeed, but in the market, you may loss 5,000,000(high possibility)，and you may gain 25,000,000(low possibility)。Do it or not? do give up,Irrationality：Loss aversion,Suppose you are in a sick, the death possibility of the sick is 1 over ten thousand. Now there is a medicine can cure it completely. How much money do you want to pay for the medicine? yuan,Suppose you are in health. A company tries to attract some person to test its new medicine. The death possibility of eating the medicine is 1 over ten thousand. How much money do you want to gain from the company to test the medicine： yuan,Conclusion：people are more sensitive on loss than gain.You may suffer more uncomfortable on something when you loss it than the happiness you get when you hold it.,Endow effect,Test on cupsIn MBA studentsStrategy: Free goods and sampleDan Ariely (Duke university): free goods,Suppose you are a manager of a firm，you gain 1000000 every month，if innovation，the possibility of success is 50%, then you may earn 4000000/month，otherwise you may loss 1000000/month innovation dont innovation,status quo bias,Investment adviser A suggested you buy 100 shares of a stock at 10$/share, now the stock have go down to 6$/share. Investment adviser B suggested you sale 100 shares of a stock at 5$/share. Now the stock is going to 10$/share。 you may fire one of them, who would be fired? A B,neglect foregone gain,The doctor told the patient: （1）If you perform the operation，survival rate is increasing 10%. （2）If you dont perform the operation, Mortality rate is increasing 10%.,Semantic effect,Anchoring effect,a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.,Case: two gruel store -One egg or two eggs? -Eggs?Case: iced-beer in 5 star-hotel and in canteen,application,Product concept PricingHorse and taxi,Appointment, four condition （1）you beauty, roommate ugly；（2）you ugly, roommate beauty；（3）you and roommate, beautiful；（4）you and roommate, ugly,Thalers rule,Two good news or two prizesTwo bad news or two punishmentsA good news and a bad newspromotion loss 100 yuanA good news and a bad news.Capital stock loss 50000win chocolate,Prospect theory: a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk (i.e., alternatives with uncertain outcomes) where the probabilities are known. The model is descriptive: it tries to model real-life choices, rather than optimal decisions.,Are you happy? What is happy？,let us have a evaluation of our happiness If you win a lottery of 5000000 yuan, your happiness？,Irrationality：Adaptive bias and contrast bias,Which factors are not easy to be adaptive?Metal Good friendsfoodpetshobby,The factors that are irregulargirl friend -buy apartment,8 rules for motivation,“Big in small” and “Small in big”。woolen scarf: price is 400 yuan; woolen coat, price is 500 yuan What do you really want?You really want to get money?Choice VS. no choiceTV set or vacation 。 Tell you the prize later or earlier?。You are rewarded to travel to Paris,Open wages VS. secret wagesequity theory Little premium VS. no awardblood donation ：（1）unpaid;（2）10 yuan for 200ccAward one time or two timesIncreasing salary VS. giving premium,Q&A?,