CET4大学英语四级考试全真预测第二套.docx

CET4大学英语四级考试全真预测第二套Hi,各位考生大学英语四级考试即将来临，经过一个阶段的备考，你们是否信心满满，胸有成竹；在这里我们网站给大家提供了10全真预测试题，如果你可以在60分钟内完成这些试题，并且准确率达到80%以上；相信顺利过关已不再是梦想；同时大部分练习题后面附有详细的答案详解；如果在做题过程中，发现错误，或者其他不解的地方；请留下您宝贵的意见或建议；我们非常愿意考虑您的所有提议；希望我们可以共同努力，共同进步；PartReadingComprehension(SkimmingandScanning)Don'tDestroytheEssentialCatalystofRiskSincethespring,andmostacutelythisautumn,aglobalcontagion(传染)offearandpanichaschokedoffthearteriesoffinance,compoundingabroaderdeteriorationintheglobaleconomy.Financialinstitutionshaveanobligationtothebroaderfinancialsystem.Wedependonahealthy,well-functioningsystembutwefailedtoraiseenoughquestionsaboutwhethersomeofthetrendsandpracticesthathadbecomecommonplacereallyservedthepublic'slong-terminterests.SevenimportantlessonsAspolicymakersandregulatorsbegintoconsidertheregulatoryactionstobetakentoaddressthefallings,Ibelieveitisusefultoreflectonsomeofthelessonsfromtiffscrisis.Thefirstisthatriskmanagementshouldnotbeentirelypredicatedonhistoricaldata.Inthepastseveralmonths,wehaveheardthephrasemultiplestandarddeviationeventsmorethanafewtimes.Ifeventsthatwerecalculatedtooccuroncein20yearsinfactoccurredmuchmoreregularly,itdoesnottakeamathematiciantofigureoutthatriskmanagementassumptionsdidnotreflectthedistributionoftheactualoutcomes.Ourindustrymustdomoretoenhanceandimprovescenarioanalysisandstresstesting.Second,toomanyfinancialinstitutionsandinvestorssimplyoutsourcedtheirriskmanagement.Ratherthanundertaketheirownanalysis,theyreliedontheratingagenciestodotheessentialworkofriskanalysisforthem.Thiswastrueattheinception(初期)andovertheperiodoftheinvestment,duringwhichtimetheydidnotconsiderotherindicatorsoffinancialdeterioration.Thisover-dependenceoncreditratingscoincidedwiththedilutionofthedesiredtripleA-rating.InJanuary2008,therewere12tripleA-ratedcompaniesintheworld.Atthesametime,therewere64,000structuredfinanceinstruments,suchascollateralizeddebtobligations,ratedtripleA.Itiseasyandappropriatetoblametheratingagenciesforlapsesintheircreditjudgments.Buttheblamefortheresultisnottheirs'alone.Everyfinancialinstitutionthatparticipatedintheprocesshastoacceptitsshareoftheresponsibility.Third,sizematters.Forexample,whetheryouowned$5billionor$50billionof(supposedly)low-risksuperseniordebtinaCDO,thelikelihoodoflosseswas,proportionally,thesame.Buttheconsequencesofamiscalculationwereobviouslymuchbiggerifyouhada$50billionexposure.Fourth,manyriskmodelsincorrectlyassumedthatpositionscouldbefullyhedged.AfterthecollapseofLong-TermCapitalManagementmidthecrisisinemergingmarketsin1998,newproductssuchasvariousbasketindicesandcreditdefaultswapswerecreatedtohelpoffsetanumberofrisks.However,wedidnot,asanindustry,considercarefullyenoughthepossibilitythatliquiditywoulddryup,makingitdifficulttoapplyeffectivehedges.Fifth,riskmodelsfailedtocapturetheriskinherentinoff-balancesheetactivities,suchasstructuredinvestmentvehicles.Itseemsclearnowthatmanagersofcompanieswithlargeoff-balancesheetexposuredidnotappreciatethefullmagnitudeoftheeconomicriskstheywereexposedto;equallyworrying,theircounterpartieswereunawareofthefullextentofthesevehiclesand,therefore,couldnotaccuratelyassesstheriskofdoingbusiness.Sixth,complexitygotthebetterofus.Theindustryletthegrowthinnewinstrumentsoutstrip(超过)theoperationalcapacitytomanagethem.Asaresult,operationalriskincreaseddramaticallyandtiffshadadirecteffectontheoverallstabilityofthefinancialsystem.Last,andperhapsmostimportant,financialinstitutionsdidnotaccountforassetvaluesaccuratelyenough.Ihaveheardsomearguethatfairvalueaccounting-whichassignscurrentvaluestofinancialassetsandliabilities-isoneofthemainfactorsexacerbating(使恶化)thecreditcrisis.Iseeitdifferently.Ifmoreinstitutionshadproperlyvaluedtheirpositionsandcommitmentsattheoutset,theywouldhavebeeninamuchbetterpositiontoreducetheirexposures.Fairvalue:adisciplineforfinancialinstitutionsThedailymarkingofpositionstocurrentmarketpriceswasakeycontributortoourdecisiontoreduceriskrelativelyearlyinmarketsandininstrumentsthatweredeteriorating.Thisprocesscanbedifficult,andsometimespainful,butIbelieveitisadisciplinethatshoulddefinefinancialinstitutions.Asaresultoftheselessonsandothersthatwillemergefromthisfinancialcrisis,weshouldconsiderimportantprinciplesforourindustry,forpolicymakersandforregulators.Fortheindustry,wecannotletourabilitytoinnovateexceedourcapacitytomanage.Giventhesizeandinterconnectednatureofmarkets,thegrowthinvolumes,theglobalnatureoftradesandtheircross-assetcharacteristics,managingoperationalriskwillonlybecomemoreimportant.Riskandcontrolfunctionsneedtobecompletelyindependentfromthebusinessunits.Andclarityastowhomriskandcontrolmanagersreporttoiscrucialtomaintainingthatindependence.Equallyimportant,riskmanagersneedtohaveatleastequalstaturewiththeircounterpartsonthetradingdesks:ifthereisaquestionaboutthevalueofapositionoradisagreementaboutarisklimit,theriskmanager'sviewshouldalwaysprevail.Understandably,compensationcontinuestogeneratealotofangerandcontroversy.Werecognizethathavingtroubledassetreliefprogrammemoneycreatesanimportantcontextforcompensation.Thatiswhy,inpart,ourexecutivemanagementteamelectednottoreceiveabonusin2008,eventhoughthefirmproducedaprofit.Moregenerally,weshouldapplybasicstandardstohowwecompensatepeopleinourindustry.Thepercentageofthediscretionary(任意的)bonusawardedinequityshouldincreasesignificantlyasanemployee'stotalcompensationincreases.Anindividual'sperformanceshouldbeevaluatedovertimesoastoavoidexcessiverisk-taking.Toensurethis,allequityawardsneedtobesubjecttofuturedeliveryand/ordeferredexercise.Seniorexecutiveofficersshouldberequiredtoretainmostoftheequitytheyreceiveatleastuntiltheyretire,whileequitydeliveryschedulesshouldcontinuetoapplyaftertheindividualhasleftthefirm.LimitationsofselfregulationForpolicymakersandregulators,itshouldbeclearthatself-regulationhasitslimits.Werationalizedandjustifiedthedownwardpricingofriskonthegroundsthatitwasdifferent.Wedidsobecauseourself-interestinpreservingandexpandingourmarketshare,ascompetitors,sometimesblindsus-especiallywhenexuberanceisatitspeak.Attheveryleast,fixingasystem-wideproblem,elevatingstandardsordrivingtheindustrytoacollectiveresponserequireseffectivecentralregulationandtheconveningpowerofregulators.Capital,creditandunderwritingstandardsshouldbesubjecttomoredynamicregulation.Regulatorsshouldconsidertheregulatoryinputsandoutputsneededtoensurearegimethatisnimbleandstrongenoughtoidentifyandappropriatelyconstrainmarketexcesses,particularlyinasustainedperiodofeconomicgrowth.JustastheFederalReserveadjustsinterestratesuptocurbeconomicfrenzy,variousbenchmarksandratioscouldbeappropriatelycalibrated.Toincreaseoveralltransparencyandhelpensurethatbookvaluereallymeansbookvalue,regulatorsshouldrequirethat,allassetsacrossfinancialinstitutionsbesimilarlyvalued.Fairvalueaccountinggivesinvestorsmoreclaritywithrespecttobalancesheetrisk.Thelevelofglobalsupervisoryco-ordinationandcommunicationshouldreflecttheglobalinterconnectednessofmarkets.Regulatorsshouldimplementmorerobustinformationsharingandharmonizeddisclosure,coupledwithamoresystemic,effectivereportingregimeforinstitutionsandmainmarketparticipants.Withoutthis,regulatorswilllackessentialtoolstohelpthemunderstandlevelsofsystemicvulnerabilityinthebankingsectorandinfinancialmarketsmorebroadly.Inthisvein,allpoolsofcapitalthatdependonthesmoothfunctioningofthefinancialsystemandarelargeenoughtobeaburdenonitinacrisisshouldbesubjecttosomedegreeofregulation.1Whichorganizationshouldberesponsibleforproperoperationofthebroaderfinancialsystem?A)Commercialbanks.B)Financialinstitutions.C)Theministryoffinance.D)TheWallStreet.查看原文2Inordertocomprehensivelyreflectthestateofeconomy,wemustresearchdeeplytoenhanceandimprove_.A)scenarioanalysisandstresstestingB)riskmanagementassumptionsC)predictiononfinancialriskD)multiplestandarddeviationevents查看原文3Manyfinancialinstitutionsandinvestorsusuallyperformriskanalysisby_.A)undertakingthemselvesB)third-partyagenciesC)outsourcingtoratingagenciesD)riskmanagementinstitutions查看原文4Whatwastheconsequenceofanover-relianceoncreditratings?A)IncreasingtripleAcompanies.B)Decliningtrustworthinessonratingagencies.C)Deficiencyincreditjudgments.D)Collapseoffinancialinstitutions.查看原文5WhentheLong-TermCapitalManagementwasdisintegrated,theproductsinitiatedtocounterweighriskswere_.A)variousbasketindicesandcreditdefaultswapsB)hedgefundandforwardrateagreementsC)credit-linkednotesD)currentswapsandratesswaps查看原文6Operationalriskscausedbycomparativelyweakenedoperationalcapacityonincreasingnewinstrumentshaveinfluenceon_.A)theoperatingincomeofcompaniesB)thecapabilitytowithstandrisksC)thestructureofcompanies'assetsD)theoverallstabilityofthefinancialsystem查看原文7Theauthorbelievesthatfinancialinstitutionscanreducecreditcrisisif_.A)positionsandcommitmentswereinitiallyassessedpreciselyB)assetvalueswereaccountedforproperlyC)financialliabilitieswereassignedpreciselyD)positionswerevaluedfairly查看原文8Theriskmanagersshouldbeauthorizedtomakethefinaldecisionwhentheydisagreewithbusinessmanagerson9Beforeaseniorexecutiveofficerretiredfromhiscompany,hehasanobligationto.10Duetothedeficiencyofinformationsharingandharmonizeddisclosure,regulatorscan'teasilyunderstandlevelsofsystemicvulnerabilityin11PartReadingComprehension(ReadinginDepth)SectionAThisChristmastheworldeconomyoffersfewreasonsforgoodcheer.Ascreditcontractsandassetpricesdeclined,demandacrosstheglobeisdeclining.RichcountriescollectivelyfacetheseverestrecessionsincetheSecondWorldWar:thisweek'scutinthetargetforthefederalfundsratetobetweenzeroand0.25%showshowfearfulAmerica'spolicymakersare.Andconditionsaredeterioratingfasttooinemergingeconomies,whichhavebeenexhaustedbydecliningexportsandthedrying-upofforeignfinance.Thisnewsisbadenoughinitself;butitalsoposesthebiggestthreattoopenmarketsinthemodemeraofglobalization.Forthefirsttimeinmorethanageneration,twooftheenginesofglobalintegration-tradeandcapitalflows-areshiftingintoreverseatthesametime.TheWorldBanksaysthatnetprivatecapitalflowstoemergingeconomiesin2009arelikelytobeonlyhalftherecord$1trillionof2007,whileglobaltradevolumeswillshrinkforthefirsttimesince1982.Thistwinshiftwillforceadjustments.Countriesthathavereliedonexportstodrivegrowth,fromChinatoGermany,willslumpunlesstheycanboostdomesticdemandquickly.Thereisariskthatintheirdiscomfortgovernmentsturntoanold,butfalse,friend:protectionism.Integrationhaslessappealwhenpainratherthanprosperityishangingacrossborders.Itwillbetemptingtosupportdomesticjobsandincomesbydivertingdemandfromabroadwithexportsubsidies,tariffsandcheapercurrencies.Thelessonsofhistory,though,areclear.Theeconomicisolationismofthe1930scruellyintensifiedtheDepression.Tobesure,theWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)anditsmultilateraltradingrulesareabulwark(壁垒)againstprotectiononthatscale.Buttoday'sglobalisedeconomy,withfar-stretchedsupplychainsandjust-in-timedelivery,couldbedisruptedbypoliciesmuchlessdramaticthantheSmoot-Hawleyact.Amodestshiftawayfromopenness-wellwithintheWTO'srules-wouldbeenoughtoturntherecessionof2009muchnastier.Increasedprotectionofthatsortis,alas,alltooplausible.Becauseofdecreasingexportsandlackoffinancialsupport,situationsinemergingmarketsare.12Recessioninrichandemergingmarketsisnotonlyabadnews,butalsothreatens.13Whathazardmaylieintheprocessofadjustmentstakenbyexport-reliedcountries?14Whenitishardtodointernationaltrading,countrieswillnotexchangeacrossborders,butchoosetosupport.15Whatistheauthor'sattitudetowardstheshiftingawayfromopennesstrendongoingnow?16SectionBPassageOneTheSuperBowlisoneofthebiggesteventsontheadvertisingcalendar,ascompaniesvietoproducethemostmemorableandinnovativeads.ThebattlefortheNationalFootballLeague'sultimateprizeattractsmoreviewersthananythingelseonAmericantelevisionandprovidesasymbolicpulsetakingfortheadvertisingindustryeveryFebruary,saysJohnFrelinghuysen,ananalystatBainandCompany,aconsultancy.Butthisyearthepatientisinpoorhealth.Alltheadvertisingslots(广告摊位)forthe2008SuperBowlhadbeensoldbytheendofNovember2007,despitethe$2.6millionpriceofeach.For2009thepricehasrisento$3million,butatleast,tenslots(outof67)arestilllookingforabuyer.GeneralMotors,whichran11adsonSuperBowlSundayinFebruary2008,hasalreadysaidthatitwillnotrunanyin2009.America'stwootherbigcarmakers,FordandChrysler,arelikelytofollowsuit.Tellingly,Monstercom,anonlinejob-searchcompany,saidrecentlythatitwasbuyingaslot.InsteadoftheusualparadeofexpensiveadspayingtributetoAmericanconsumerism,2009'sSuperBowlwillreflectacountryinrecessionandindicateahardyearfortheadvertisingindustry.MostforecastsfornextyearsaythatadspendinginAmericawilldeclineby5%ormore.Muchdependsonthefateoftheautomotiveindustry:carmakersanddealersnormallyspendaround$20billionayearonadvertising,butChryslerandFordscaledbacktheirexpenditurebymorethan30%inthefirstninemonthsof2008,andareexpectedtomakefurthercutsin2009astheystruggleforsurvival.Thecarindustry'ssituationwillhurtallmedia,butespeciallytelevision.AnalystsatBMOCapitalMarketspredictthattotalspendingontelevisionadswillfallbyalmost9%nextyear.Onlynewspapers,whereadeclineof12%isexpected,areforecasttofareworse.CarmakershavealreadyshiftedsomeoftheiradvertisingspendingtotheInternet,andarelikelytogofurtherin2009.Caradsmakeup25%ofadvertisingrevenuesforlocaltelevisionchannels,andcarmakershavebeenamongthemostconsistentbuyersofhigh-pricedadsonnationaltelevision.Sofarlocalstationshavebeenmostaffectedbyfallingspendingoiladvertising.Nationalstationshavebeensafer,becausetheyoperateonlonger-termcontractswithadvertisers.ButintheNewYeartheywillalsofeelthechill,ascompaniesfailtorenewtheircontracts.Television,whichhasremainedstrongasprintmediahavelostadvertisingdollarsandreaderstotheInternet,couldenteradeclineofitsown.NextonthelistisTVstations,saysAnthonyDiclemente,amediaanalystatBarclaysCapital.WhydoestheauthorgivetheexampleofSuperBowl?A)BecauseitisthemostpopularfootballgamesinAmerica.B)Becauseitshowsadvertisers'enthusiasminrunningslotshasdropped.C)Becauseitisaneventthatattractstheattentionofadvertisers.D)BecauseitwillberightoninAmericain2009.17Whycan'tatleasttenslotsfindabuyer(Lastsentence,Para.1)accordingtothepassage?A)Thepriceforrunningtheadvertisingslotshasrisento$3million.B)Itisnotattractiveanymorefortheadvertisingindustry.C)Theadvertisingindustryissufferingahardyear.D)Theadvertisingslotshavebeenontherisesince2007.18Whatmaythecarmakersresorttoforpromotingtheirautomobilesandcuttingdownexpenditure?A)Buyinglow-pricedadsonnationaltelevision.B)Renewingnewcontractswithnationalstations.C)ShiftingtheiradvertisingspendingtotheInternet.D)Relyingonsuchprintmediaasnewspapers.19WhatdoesthesentenceNextonthelistisTVstations(lastparagraph)saidbyAnthonyDiclementemean?A)WhatheisgoingtoanalyzenextisTVstations.B)whatadvertisersprefertouseisTVstations.C)TVstationisthenexttobedefeatedbyInternet.D)HewouldchooseTVstationasasecondchoice.20Wecanlearnfromthepassagethat_.A)FordandChryslerwill