最新在监管过程中使用信用登记数据67精品课件.ppt

在监管过程中使用信用登在监管过程中使用信用登记数据记数据6767MAIN TASKS OF THE CREDIT REGISTER信用登记的主要任务信用登记的主要任务For the banks: a better assessment of credit risk对银行而言对银行而言：更好地衡量信用风险：更好地衡量信用风险monthly return on reported borrowers; 报告借款人的月度还款额报告借款人的月度还款额ad hoc request for information on credit applicants; 对信用申请人信息的特定要求对信用申请人信息的特定要求dissemination of data on a monthly/quarterly basis. 按月度按月度季度分发数据季度分发数据For the Supervisor:对监管者而言：对监管者而言：improving the assessment of the quality of loan portfolios in the context of the supervisory process; 在在监管过程中改善对贷款组合质量的评估方法监管过程中改善对贷款组合质量的评估方法improving macroprudential analysis. 提高总体审慎分析质量提高总体审慎分析质量 Estimating the PDs 估算违约概率估算违约概率(PDs) In particular, balance sheet data in the year 2000 and Credit Register information for 2001 are used to assess the probability of each firm of being recorded as defaulted in the year 2002. 特别指出，在估计每家特别指出，在估计每家2002年被记录为违约企业的违约概率时，使用了年被记录为违约企业的违约概率时，使用了2000年的资产负债表数据以及年的资产负债表数据以及2001年的信用登记信息。年的信用登记信息。 Since this work has been done in conjunction with the data stemming from the Interest Rate Survey, we restrict ourselves to 104,300 corporate borrowers and to 255,000 credit relationships. 由于此项工作要与利率测算项目的数据配合，所以我们将范围限制在由于此项工作要与利率测算项目的数据配合，所以我们将范围限制在104,300家企业借款人和家企业借款人和255，000项信贷往来。项信贷往来。 The average value of the PDs, weight 违约概率，权数的均值违约概率，权数的均值 ed by the amount of lending, turns out to be 0.93 per cent, as against 1.3 per cent for all corporate borrowers in 2002. 根据借款数额，最终违约概率测算为根据借款数额，最终违约概率测算为0.93%, 而而2002年所有公司借款人的年所有公司借款人的违约概率为违约概率为1.3%.Table 表1RISK BUCKETS(PDS)NoDebtNoDebtNoDebtNoDebtNoDebt0.00-0.15 %11.45.27.53.55.32.53.82.25.34.00.15-0.45 %33.435.927.023.921.817.718.514.421.927.3 0.45-0.70 %26.230.325.425.621.918.818.715.821.525.90.70-1.00 %18.319.522.825.523.023.520.320.821.922.51.00-2.00 %8.06.712.816.118.123.521.024.417.913.92.00-4.00 %1.82.02.83.55.47.38.811.16.03.94.00-8.00 %0.40.21.21.22.73.75.36.63.31.5 8%0.50.20.60.71.83.23.64.72.21.1NUMBER OF FIRMSBANK LOANSAverage PD195,0931,91520,07845,93536,381104,30979,60571,80236,3547,3330.620.891.491.910.93SharesSharesSharesSharesSharesTOTAL SALESTHE SAMPLE: NUMBER OF FIRMS AND BANK DEBT BY RISK BUCKETS 50 million 5-50 million 16,00Risk Buckets (probabilities of default)Loan rate (weighted average)weighted average + weighted averageweighted average - In general terms, the pricing of bank loans reflects: (i) both financial and operating costs; (ii) a risk premium computed by the bank according to its internal procedures, (iii) the market power of the bank. 总体来看，银行贷款定价反映了总体来看，银行贷款定价反映了(i) 财务成本和操作成本；财务成本和操作成本；(ii) 银行根据其内银行根据其内部程序计算的风险升水；部程序计算的风险升水； (iii)银行的市场力量银行的市场力量 We focus on the overall riskiness of lending operations within a foundation IRB approach, as defined by: 我们通过基础内部评级法（我们通过基础内部评级法（foundation IRB approach）重点关注借款的总体）重点关注借款的总体风险，这一方法定义如下：风险，这一方法定义如下：Overall Risk Component (ORC) : EL + k(REQ-EL)总体风险构成（总体风险构成（ORC）：）：EL+k(REQ-EL)其中：其中：EL = Expected Loss 预期损失预期损失REQ = capital requirement according to CP3 根据新巴塞尔协议草案第三版（根据新巴塞尔协议草案第三版（CP3）确定的资本金要求）确定的资本金要求K = rate of return on bank capital 银行资本收益率银行资本收益率Our statistical exercises go through various stages:统计工作需要经历若干阶段：统计工作需要经历若干阶段：1In order to estimate both the EL and the REQ under the foundation IRB approach (CP3), we need the PD of each bank borrower; 为了通过基础内部评级法为了通过基础内部评级法(CP3)来估计预期损失和资本金要求，我们来估计预期损失和资本金要求，我们需要每个银行借款者的违约率。需要每个银行借款者的违约率。2In order to assess the relation between the ORC and the banks own risk assessment we need the interest rates charged by each bank to each lending operation; 为了估计总体风险构成和银行自身风险之间的关系，我们需要各家银为了估计总体风险构成和银行自身风险之间的关系，我们需要各家银行对每笔借款征收的利率。行对每笔借款征收的利率。3In order to perform a stress test exercise we need to establish the criteria for simulating a sudden deterioration in the financial situation of the corporate sector. 为了进行压力测试，我们需要建立一系列标准来重振公司财务状况急为了进行压力测试，我们需要建立一系列标准来重振公司财务状况急剧下滑的情况。剧下滑的情况。RISK BUCKETSEXPECTED LOSSESCAPITAL REQUIREMENTSRISK COMPONENTSAmount%0.00-0.15 %7,7294.0 0.042.090.250.15-0.45 %53,20127.3 0.144.060.54 0.45-0.70 %50,50225.9 0.265.630.820.70-1.00 %43,89822.5 0.386.411.001.00-2.00 %27,20113.9 0.587.211.262.00-4.00 %7,5293.9 1.249.272.074.00-8.00 %2,8531.5 2.5011.483.43 8%2,1801.1 5.5822.7910.38TOTAL195,093100.0 0.425.810.97EXPECTED LOSSES, CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, RISK COMPONENTS(WHOLE SAMPLE)BANK LOANSTable 2表2Figure 5图5Interest rates (net of the rate on risk-free assets)利率（无风险资产的净利率）ORC 总体风险构成CHANGES IN ORCs AND INTEREST RATES BY RISK BUCKETS总体风险构成和利率相对于风险量的变化0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.000,00-0,15 % 0,15-0,45 % 0,45-0,70 % 0,70-1,00 % 1,00-2,00 % 2,00-4,00 % 4,00-8,00 % Total sales 50 million总销售额 5000万Changes in ORCs and interest rates总体风险构成和利率的变化risk buckets风险篮Figure 6图6CHANGES IN ORCs AND INTEREST RATES BY RISK BUCKETS总体风险构成和利率相对于风险量的变化0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.000,00-0,15 % 0,15-0,45 % 0,45-0,70 % 0,70-1,00 % 1,00-2,00 % 2,00-4,00 % 4,00-8,00 % Interest rates (net of the rate on risk-free assets)利率（无风险资产的净利率）ORC 总体风险构成Total sales 5-50 million总销售额为 5005000万Changes in ORCs and interest rates总体风险构成和利率的变化risk buckets 风险量Figure 9图9(Source: Centrale dei Bilanci)INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL FIRMS:ACCOUNTING RATIOS 工业和商业企业：会计比率0,010,020,030,040,050,060,070,019821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,05,0Gross Op. Profit /Value addedNet Fin. Costs /Gross Op. ProfitLeverageR O A (rhs)Stress testing By using the balance sheets of the corporate borrowers and their credit relationships in 1993, we simulate a sudden deterioration of the Italian corporate sector to the situation experienced in 1993-94. We compute:压力测试压力测试 利用1993年公司债务人的财务报表和它们的信用关系，我们模拟了199394年间意大利企业财务状况急剧恶化的情况。我们计算了： (a)the PDs of individual firms consistent with such a situation;(b)the corresponding capital requirements according to CP3; (the corresponding ORC of each credit relationship.与该情况相一致的单个公司的违约率与CP3相应的资本金要求(c)相应信用关系中的总体风险构成 The increase of the ORC with respect to the present situation provides a proxy of the increase we should expect to observe in the interest rate (net of the rate on a risk-free asset) charged on each credit relationship. 目前风险种类的增加表示我们对每笔信贷事项所征收的利率（无风险利率基础上目前风险种类的增加表示我们对每笔信贷事项所征收的利率（无风险利率基础上的净利率）也应当增加。的净利率）也应当增加。Procedure for stress testing Sample: 188,000 firms for 2000-01; 150,000 for 1993; 64,000 firms in both periods Calculation: (i) for 64,000 firms (56% of bank loans), substitution of 1993 values for those of 2000-01; (ii) for 124,000 firms, adjustment to reproduce 1993 averages by sector, area, size of firms.压力测试步骤压力测试步骤 样本：样本：200001年年 188,000个公司；个公司；1993年年 150,000个公司；个公司； 其中同时存在于两个时期的其中同时存在于两个时期的有有 64,000个公司个公司 计算：计算： (i) 对于占了银行贷款对于占了银行贷款56%的的64,000个公司，用个公司，用200001年的价值来代替年的价值来代替1993年的年的价值；价值；(ii) 对于剩下的对于剩下的124,000个公司，按部门、地区以及公司规模来调整个公司，按部门、地区以及公司规模来调整1993年的平均值年的平均值Results: The number of firms with PD not higher than 1 per cent decreases from 70.6 to 57 per cent of the total. The average PD for the whole sample increases from .93 to 1.33 per cent. The increase is sharper for smaller firms: (i) firms with total sales between 5 and 50 million: from 1.49 to 2.11 per cent; (ii) firms in the retail portfolio: from 1.91 to 2.60 per cent. 结论：结论： 违约率不超过违约率不超过1的公司数从的公司数从70.6%下降到下降到57 总体样本的平均违约率从总体样本的平均违约率从0.93%上升到上升到1.33% 小公司的违约率增长更快：小公司的违约率增长更快： (i) 销售额在销售额在 5005000万之间的公司，违约率从万之间的公司，违约率从1.49%上升上升到到2.11% ; (ii) 零售公司违约率从零售公司违约率从1.91%上升到上升到2.60%。STRESS TEST: TRANSITION MATRIX FOR THE WHOLE SAMPLERISK BUCKETS (simulated 1994) Number of firms in simulated 1994 RISK BUCKETS (2002)NoShare 0,00-0,15 % 0,15-0,45 % 0,45-0,70 % 0,70-1,00 % 1,00-2,00 % 2,00-4,00 % 4,00-8,00 % 8,00% TOTAL Shares 0.00-0.15 %5.534 5,3 44,2 35,6 9,2 5,2 3,8 1,4 0,6 0,2 100,0 2,3 0.15-0.45 %22.821 21,9 - 56,2 25,3 8,9 5,9 2,3 1,0 0,4 100,0 14,2 0.45-0.70 %22.450 21,5 - - 55,3 28,8 10,1 3,4 1,8 0,6 100,0 17,9 0.70-1.00 %22.852 21,9 - - - 64,5 27,5 4,4 2,5 1,1 100,0 22,6 1.00-2.00 %18.701 17,9 - - - - 76,9 17,7 3,4 2,0 100,0 23,5 2.00-4.00 %6.258 6,0 - - - - - 73,9 22,7 3,4 100,0 9,9 4.00-8.00 %3.411 3,3 - - - - - - 79,9 20,1 100,0 5,8 8%2.282 2,2 - - - - - - - 100,0 100,0 3,9 TOTAL104.309 100,0 2,3 14,2 17,9 22,6 23,5 9,9 5,8 3,9 100,0 100,0 (Number of Firms)Table 3表3Table 4表4STRESS TEST: TRANSITION MATRIX FOR THE WHOLE SAMPLERISK BUCKETS (simulated 1994) Bank debt in simulated 1994 RISK BUCKETS (2002)AmountShare 0,00-0,15 % 0,15-0,45 % 0,45-0,70 % 0,70-1,00 % 1,00-2,00 % 2,00-4,00 % 4,00-8,00 % 8,00% TOTAL Shares 0.00-0.15 %7,729 4.0 35.0 44.5 13.3 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.1 100.0 1.4 0.15-0.45 %53,201 27.3 .61.5 25.4 6.3 4.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 100.0 18.5 0.45-0.70 %50,502 25.9 .53.8 33.6 9.4 2.0 1.1 0.2 100.0 21.4 0.70-1.00 %43,898 22.5 .65.7 25.5 5.0 2.3 1.5 100.0 25.3 1.00-2.00 %27,201 13.9 .83.1 11.4 3.7 1.8 100.0 21.1 2.00-4.00 %7,529 3.9 .80.5 16.4 3.1 100.0 6.8 4.00-8.00 %2,853 1.5 .84.8 15.2 100.0 3.4 8%2,180 1.1 .100.0 2.1 TOTAL195,094 100.0 1.4 18.5 21.4 25.3 21.1 6.8 3.4 2.1 100.0 100.0 (Bank 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