2022年未来计算机与计算机技术 2.pdf

未来计算机与计算机技术计算机的要害技术继续发展未来的计算机技术将向超高速、超小型、平行处理、智能化的方向发展。尽管受到物理极限的约束，采用硅芯片的计算机的核心部件CPU 的性能还会持续增长。作为 Moore 定律驱动下成功企业的典范Inter 预计 2001 年推出 1 亿个晶体管的微处理器，并预计在2010 年推出集成 10 亿个晶体管的微处理器，其性能为 10 万 MIPS（1000 亿条指令秒）。而每秒 100 万亿次的超级计算机将出现在本世纪初出现。 超高速计算机将采用平行处理技术，使计算机系统同时执行多条指令或同时对多个数据进行处理，这是改进计算机结构、 提高计算机运行速度的要害技术。同时计算机将具备更多的智能成分，它将具有多种感知能力、 一定的思考与判定能力及一定的自然语言能力。除了提供自然的输入手段 （如语音输入、 手写输入）外，让人能产生身临其境感觉的各种交互设备已经出现，虚拟现实技术是这一领域发展的集中体现。传统的磁存储、 光盘存储容量继续攀升， 新的海量存储技术趋于成熟，新型的存储器每立方厘米存储容量可达10TB（以一本书 30 万字计，它可存储约1500万本书）。信息的永久存储也将成为现实，千年存储器正在研制中，这样的存储器可以抗干扰、抗高温、防震、防水、防腐蚀。如是，今日的大量文献可以原汁原味保存、并流芳百世。新型计算机系统不断涌现硅芯片技术的高速发展同时也意味着硅技术越来越近其物理极限，为此，世界各国的研究人员正在加紧研究开发新型计算机，计算机从体系结构的变革到器件与技术革命都要产生一次量的乃至质的飞跃。新型的量子计算机、光子计算机、生物计算机、纳米计算机等将会在21 世纪走进我们的生活，遍布各个领域。Computer development and the present situation The computer network is computer technology and communication technology in the combination of product, it involves communication and computer two fields. Its birth make computer architecture, great changes have taken place in todays social economy plays a very important role, it to the progress of human society made great contribution. In a sense, the development of computer network level not only reflect a nations computer science and communications technology level, and has become to measure its national strength and modernization degree one of the important marks. Since the 1950s, people and start organizations use computer to manage their information speed rapid growth. Early, limited to technical conditions such that computers are very large and very expensive, any agencies are not for personal use of the entire computer provide employees, host must be Shared, it is used to store and organize data, centralized control and management of the whole system. All customers have connection system of terminal equipment, will database into the host in processing, perhaps will host the deal, 名师资料总结 - - -精品资料欢迎下载 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 名师精心整理 - - - - - - - 第 1 页，共 4 页 - - - - - - - - - and through the centralized control output devices taken out. It is the most typical features are: the host system formed by most of the communication process, constitute a system all communication protocols are proprietary, mainframes in system occupies a absolute domination, all control and management functions are made by host to complete. Along with the development of computer technology, especially large function of advanced of the personal computer was published, makes each one can fully control their own computer, he hoped assignments of treatment to personal computer (PC) non-ending computing power to become independent platform, causing a new calculation structure - distributed computing model was born. Generally speaking, the development of computer network can be divided into four stages: The first stage: the computer technology and communication technology should be combined to form the rudiment of computer network, The second stage: in computer communication network, on the basis of the complete network architecture and protocols research, forming a computer network, The third stage: in solving computer networking with network interconnection standardization, under the background of the reference model proposed open systems interconnection agreement, promoted the accord with international standard of the development of the computer network technology, Fourth step: computer network to the interconnection, high-speed and intelligent direction, and a wide range of applications. A kind of any new technique appears must have two requirements: namely strong social demand and prior technology maturity. Computer network technology to the formation and development also confirmed this rule. 1946 the worlds first digital electronic computer ENIAC was born in the United States, computer technology and communication technology and no direct link. The early 50s, because the U.S. military needs, American semi-automatic ground defense systems SAGE the computer technology and communication technology combining attempt. To achieve such a goal, we must first complete data communication technology of basic research. In this study, on the basis of one can completely will geographical position scattered multiple terminal communications lines connected to a central computer. Users can in his office terminal type process through communication lines teleport to a central computer, people put this single center for online system oriented to the remote terminal called the online system. It is a kind of computer communication network. In the early 1960s American airlines built by a computer and distribution in the American more than 2000 terminals composed of airline reservation systems SABRE - 1 is this kind of computer communication network. 名师资料总结 - - -精品资料欢迎下载 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 名师精心整理 - - - - - - - 第 2 页，共 4 页 - - - - - - - - - Along with the development of computer application, appeared more computers interconnected demand. This demand, mainly from the military, scientific research, regional and national economic information analysis and decision, large enterprise management. They hope will distribution in different locations through the computer communication lines to become computer - computer network interconnection. Internet users can through computer USES the local computer hardware, software and data resources, also can use networking other parts of the computer software, hardware and data resources, in order to achieve the purpose of computer resources sharing. This one phase Research is the typical representative of by the us defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA on Projects Agency), true of the NCP (often called ARPA network). In 1969 ARPA nets only four nodes in 1973, development to 40 node, 1983 has reached more than 100 nodes. ARPA nets by wire, radio and satellite communication lines, network covers from native American to Europe and Hawaiis wide geographic areas. ARPR net is computer network technology development of an important milestone, it to develop the main contribution of computer network technology performance in the following aspects: 1, the completion of the computer network based on the definition, classification and research contents of description, 2, puts forward a resource subnet, communication subnet two levels of network structure; the idea of 3, study the message packet-switched data exchange method, 4, adopts the hierarchical structure of network architecture model and protocol architecture. The future of computer and computer technology Computer key technology continues to develop The future of computer technology to ultra-high speed, small-sized, parallel processing, intelligent direction. In spite of physical limits of constraint by using silicon chips computer the core component of CPU performance will be sustained growth. As Moores law is driven by a successful business model Inter is expected to launch 100 million transistors in 2001 the microprocessor, and expected to launch in 2010 integrated one billion transistors microprocessor, its performance for 10 million the MIPS (1000 items of instruction/SEC). And 100 trillion times per second of the super computer will appear in the start of the decade. Super-fast computers will adopts parallel processing technology, make the computer system and execute multiple 名师资料总结 - - -精品资料欢迎下载 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 名师精心整理 - - - - - - - 第 3 页，共 4 页 - - - - - - - - - instructions or simultaneously with multiple data processing, this is improved computer structure and improving computer running speed of key technology. While the computer will have more intelligent composition, it will have a variety of perception, the certain thinking and judgement ability and a natural language ability. In addition to providing natural input methods (such as speech input, handwritten input) outside, let a person can produce various delivered personally feeling 名师资料总结 - - -精品资料欢迎下载 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 名师精心整理 - - - - - - - 第 4 页，共 4 页 - - - - - - - - -