计量经济学(庞皓)第三版课后答案解析.doc
-/第二章 简单线性回归模型2.1（1） 首先分析人均寿命与人均GDP 的数量关系，用Eviews 分析：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/27/14 Time: 21:00Sample: 1 22Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 56.64794 1.960820 28.88992 0.0000X1 0.128360 0.027242 4.711834 0.0001 R-squared 0.526082 Mean dependent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.502386 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regression 7.116881 Akaike info criterion 6.849324Sum squared resid 1013.000 Schwarz criterion 6.948510Log likelihood -73.34257 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.872689F-statistic 22.20138 Durbin-Watson stat 0.629074Prob(F-statistic) 0.000134 有上可知，关系式为y=56.64794+0.128360x1关于人均寿命与成人识字率的关系，用Eviews 分析如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/26/14 Time: 21:10Sample: 1 22Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 38.79424 3.532079 10.98340 0.0000X2 0.331971 0.046656 7.115308 0.0000 R-squared 0.716825 Mean dependent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.702666 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regression 5.501306 Akaike info criterion 6.334356Sum squared resid 605.2873 Schwarz criterion 6.433542Log likelihood -67.67792 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.357721F-statistic 50.62761 Durbin-Watson stat 1.846406Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 由上可知，关系式为y=38.79424+0.331971x2关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗接种率的关系，用Eviews 分析如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/26/14 Time: 21:14Sample: 1 22Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 31.79956 6.536434 4.864971 0.0001X3 0.387276 0.080260 4.825285 0.0001 R-squared 0.537929 Mean dependent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.514825 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regression 7.027364 Akaike info criterion 6.824009Sum squared resid 987.6770 Schwarz criterion 6.923194Log likelihood -73.06409 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.847374F-statistic 23.28338 Durbin-Watson stat 0.952555Prob(F-statistic) 0.000103 由上可知，关系式为y=31.79956+0.387276x3（2）关于人均寿命与人均GDP 模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.526082，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。对于回归系数的t 检验：t （1）=4.711834>t0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，人均GDP 对人均寿命有显著影响。关于人均寿命与成人识字率模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.716825，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。对于回归系数的t 检验：t （2）=7.115308>t0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，成人识字率对人均寿命有显著影响。关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗的模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.537929，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。对于回归系数的t 检验：t （3）=4.825285>t0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，一岁儿童疫苗接种率对人均寿命有显著影响。2.2（1）对于浙江省预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 17:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-StatisticX 0.176124 0.004072 43.25639C -154.3063 39.08196 -3.948274R-squared 0.983702 Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared 0.983177 S.D. dependent varS.E. of regression 175.2325 Akaike info criterionSum squared resid 951899.7 Schwarz criterionLog likelihood -216.2751 Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic 1871.115 Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic) 0.000000Prob. 0.0000 0.0004 902.5148 1351.009 13.22880 13.31949 13.25931 0.100021 由上可知，模型的参数：斜率系数0.176124，截距为154.3063关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，检验模型的显著性：1）可决系数为0.983702，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。2）对于回归系数的t 检验：t （2）=43.25639>t0.025(31)=2.0395，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显著影响。用规范形式写出检验结果如下：Y=0.176124X154.3063(0.004072) (39.08196)t= (43.25639) （-3.948274）R2=0.983702 F=1871.115 n=33经济意义是：全省生产总值每增加1亿元，财政预算总收入增加0.176124亿元。（2）当x=32000时，进行点预测，由上可知Y=0.176124X154.3063，代入可得：Y= Y=0.176124*32000154.3063=5481.6617进行区间预测：x2=（X i X ）2=2x (n1)= 7608.0212 x (331)=1852223.473(Xf X) 2=(32000 6000.441)2=675977068.2当Xf=32000时，将相关数据代入计算得到：5481.66172.0395x175.2325x1/33+1852223.473/675977068.2Yf5481.6617+2.0395x175.2325x1/33+1852223.473/675977068.2即Yf 的置信区间为（5481.661764.9649, 5481.6617+64.9649）(3) 对于浙江省预算收入对数与全省生产总值对数的模型，由Eviews 分析结果如下： Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 18:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.LNX 0.980275 0.034296 28.58268 0.0000C -1.918289 0.268213 -7.152121 0.0000R-squared 0.963442 Mean dependent var 5.573120Adjusted R-squared 0.962263 S.D. dependent var 1.684189S.E. of regression 0.327172 Akaike info criterion 0.662028Sum squared resid 3.318281 Schwarz criterion 0.752726Log likelihood -8.923468 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.692545F-statistic 816.9699 Durbin-Watson stat 0.096208Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000模型方程为：lnY=0.980275lnX-1.918289由上可知，模型的参数：斜率系数为0.980275，截距为-1.918289关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，检验其显著性：1）可决系数为0.963442，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。2）对于回归系数的t 检验：t （2）=28.58268>t0.025(31)=2.0395，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显著影响。经济意义：全省生产总值每增长1%，财政预算总收入增长0.980275%2.4（1）对建筑面积与建造单位成本模型，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 12:40Sample: 1 12Included observations: 12 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X -64.18400 4.809828 -13.34434 0.0000C 1845.475 19.26446 95.79688 0.0000 R-squared 0.946829 Mean dependent var 1619.333Adjusted R-squared 0.941512 S.D. dependent var 131.2252S.E. of regression 31.73600 Akaike info criterion 9.903792Sum squared resid 10071.74 Schwarz criterion 9.984610Log likelihood -57.42275 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.873871F-statistic 178.0715 Durbin-Watson stat 1.172407Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 由上可得：建筑面积与建造成本的回归方程为：Y=1845.475-64.18400X（2）经济意义：建筑面积每增加1万平方米，建筑单位成本每平方米减少64.18400元。（3）首先进行点预测，由Y=1845.475-64.18400X 得，当x=4.5，y=1556.647再进行区间估计：由上表可知，x2=（X i X ）2=2x (n1)= 1.9894192 x (121)=43.5357(Xf X) 2=(4.5 3.523333) 2=0.95387843当Xf=4.5时，将相关数据代入计算得到：1556.6472.228x 31.73600x1/12+43.5357/0.95387843Yf1556.647+2.228x31.73600x1/12+43.5357/0.95387843即Yf 的置信区间为（1556.647478.1231, 1556.647+478.1231）3.1（1）对百户拥有家用汽车量计量经济模型，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/25/14 Time: 12:38Sample: 1 31Included observations: 31Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.X2 5.996865 1.406058 4.265020 0.0002X3 -0.524027 0.179280 -2.922950 0.0069X4 -2.265680 0.518837 -4.366842 0.0002C 246.8540 51.97500 4.749476 0.0001R-squared 0.666062 Mean dependent var 16.77355Adjusted R-squared 0.628957 S.D. dependent var 8.252535S.E. of regression 5.026889 Akaike info criterion 6.187394Sum squared resid 682.2795 Schwarz criterion 6.372424Log likelihood -91.90460 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.247709F-statistic 17.95108 Durbin-Watson stat 1.147253Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001得到模型得：Y=246.8540+5.996865X2- 0.524027 X3-2.265680 X4对模型进行检验：1） 可决系数是0.666062，修正的可决系数为0.628957，说明模型对样本拟合较好2） F 检验，F=17.95108>F（3,27）=3.65，回归方程显著。3）t 检验，t 统计量分别为4.749476，4.265020，-2.922950，-4.366842，均大于 t （27）=2.0518，所以这些系数都是显著的。依据：1） 可决系数越大，说明拟合程度越好2） F 的值与临界值比较，若大于临界值，则否定原假设，回归方程是显著的；若小于临界值，则接受原假设，回归方程不显著。3） t 的值与临界值比较，若大于临界值，则否定原假设，系数都是显著的；若小于临界值，则接受原假设，系数不显著。（2）经济意义：人均增加万元，百户拥有家用汽车增加5.996865辆，城镇人口比重增加个百分点，百户拥有家用汽车减少0.524027辆，交通工具消费价格指数每上升，百户拥有家用汽车减少2.265680辆。（3）用EViews 分析得：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/08/14 Time: 17:28Sample: 1 31Included observations: 31 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X2 5.135670 1.010270 5.083465 0.0000LNX3 -22.81005 6.771820 -3.368378 0.0023LNX4 -230.8481 49.46791 -4.666624 0.0001C 1148.758 228.2917 5.031974 0.0000 R-squared 0.691952 Mean dependent var 16.77355Adjusted R-squared 0.657725 S.D. dependent var 8.252535S.E. of regression 4.828088 Akaike info criterion 6.106692Sum squared resid 629.3818 Schwarz criterion 6.291723Log likelihood -90.65373 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.167008F-statistic 20.21624 Durbin-Watson stat 1.150090Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 模型方程为：Y=5.135670 X2-22.81005 LNX3-230.8481 LNX4+1148.758此分析得出的可决系数为0.691952>0.666062，拟合程度得到了提高，可这样改进。3.2（）对出口货物总额计量经济模型，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X2 0.135474 0.012799 10.58454 0.0000X3 18.85348 9.776181 1.928512 0.0729C -18231.58 8638.216 -2.110573 0.0520 R-squared 0.985838 Mean dependent var 6619.191Adjusted R-squared 0.983950 S.D. dependent var 5767.152S.E. of regression 730.6306 Akaike info criterion 16.17670Sum squared resid 8007316. Schwarz criterion 16.32510Log likelihood -142.5903 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.19717F-statistic 522.0976 Durbin-Watson stat 1.173432Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 由上可知，模型为：Y = 0.135474X2 + 18.85348X3 - 18231.58对模型进行检验：1）可决系数是0.985838，修正的可决系数为0.983950，说明模型对样本拟合较好2）F 检验，F=522.0976>F（2,15）=4.77，回归方程显著3）t 检验，t 统计量分别为X2的系数对应t 值为10.58454，大于t （15）=2.131，系数是显著的，X3的系数对应t 值为1.928512，小于t （15）=2.131，说明此系数是不显著的。（2）对于对数模型，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNX2 1.564221 0.088988 17.57789 0.0000LNX3 1.760695 0.682115 2.581229 0.0209C -20.52048 5.432487 -3.777363 0.0018 R-squared 0.986295 Mean dependent var 8.400112Adjusted R-squared 0.984467 S.D. dependent var 0.941530S.E. of regression 0.117343 Akaike info criterion -1.296424Sum squared resid 0.206540 Schwarz criterion -1.148029Log likelihood 14.66782 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.275962F-statistic 539.7364 Durbin-Watson stat 0.686656Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 由上可知，模型为：LNY=-20.52048+1.564221 LNX2+1.760695 LNX3对模型进行检验：1）可决系数是0.986295，修正的可决系数为0.984467，说明模型对样本拟合较好。2）F 检验，F=539.7364> F（2,15）=4.77，回归方程显著。3）t 检验，t 统计量分别为-3.777363，17.57789，2.581229，均大于t （15）=2.131，所以这些系数都是显著的。（3）（1）式中的经济意义：工业增加1亿元，出口货物总额增加0.135474亿元，人民币汇率增加1，出口货物总额增加18.85348亿元。（2）式中的经济意义：工业增加额每增加1%，出口货物总额增加1.564221%，人民币汇率每增加1%，出口货物总额增加1.760695%3.3（1）对家庭书刊消费对家庭月平均收入和户主受教育年数计量模型，由Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X 0.086450 0.029363 2.944186 0.0101T 52.37031 5.202167 10.06702 0.0000C -50.01638 49.46026 -1.011244 0.3279 R-squared 0.951235 Mean dependent var 755.1222Adjusted R-squared 0.944732 S.D. dependent var 258.7206S.E. of regression 60.82273 Akaike info criterion 11.20482Sum squared resid 55491.07 Schwarz criterionLog likelihood -97.84334 Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic 146.2974 Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic) 0.000000模型为：Y = 0.086450X + 52.37031T-50.0163811.35321 11.22528 2.605783对模型进行检验：1）可决系数是0.951235，修正的可决系数为0.944732，说明模型对样本拟合较好。2）F 检验，F=539.7364> F（2,15）=4.77，回归方程显著。3）t 检验，t 统计量分别为2.944186，10.06702，均大于t （15）=2.131，所以这些系数都是显著的。经济意义：家庭月平均收入增加1元，家庭书刊年消费支出增加0.086450元，户主受教育年数增加1年，家庭书刊年消费支出增加52.37031元。（2）用Eviews 分析：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. T 63.01676 4.548581 13.85416 0.0000C -11.58171 58.02290 -0.199606 0.8443 R-squared 0.923054 Mean dependent var 755.1222Adjusted R-squared 0.918245 S.D. dependent var 258.7206S.E. of regression 73.97565 Akaike info criterion 11.54979Sum squared resid 87558.36 Schwarz criterion 11.64872Log likelihood -101.9481 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.56343F-statistic 191.9377 Durbin-Watson stat 2.134043Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: XMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:34Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.T 123.1516 31.84150 3.867644 0.0014C 444.5888 406.1786 1.094565 0.2899 R-squared 0.483182 Mean dependent var 1942.933Adjusted R-squared 0.450881 S.D. dependent var 698.8325S.E. of regression 517.8529 Akaike info criterion 15.44170Sum squared resid 4290746. Schwarz criterion 15.54063Log likelihood -136.9753 Hannan-Quinn criter. 15.45534F-statistic 14.95867 Durbin-Watson stat 1.052251Prob(F-statistic) 0.001364 以上分别是y 与T ，X 与T 的一元回归模型分别是：Y = 63.01676T - 11.58171X = 123.1516T + 444.5888（3）对残差进行模型分析，用Eviews 分析结果如下：Dependent Variable: E1Method: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 20:39Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. E2 0.086450 0.028431 3.040742 0.0078C 3.96E-14 13.88083 2.85E-15 1.0000 R-squared 0.366239 Mean dependent var 2.30E-14Adjusted R-squared 0.326629 S.D. dependent var 71.76693S.E. of regression 58.89136 Akaike info criterion 11.09370Sum squared resid 55491.07 Schwarz criterion 11.19264Log likelihood -97.84334 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.10735F-statistic 9.246111 Durbin-Watson stat 2.605783Prob(F-statistic) 0.007788 模型为：E 1 = 0.086450E2 + 3.96e-14参数：斜率系数为0.086450，截距为3.96e-14（3）由上可知，2与2的系数是一样的。回归系数与被解释变量的残差系数是一样的，它们的变化规律是一致的。3.6（1）预期的符号是X 1，X 2,X 3,X 4,X 5的符号为正，X 6的符号为负（2）根据Eviews 分析得到数据如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/04/14 Time: 13:24Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X2 0.001382 0.001102 1.254330 0.2336X3 0.001942 0.003960 0.490501 0.6326X4 -3.579090 3.559949 -1.005377 0.3346X5 0.004791 0.005034 0.951671 0.3600X6 0.045542 0.095552 0.476621 0.6422C -13.77732 15.73366 -0.875659 0.3984 R-squared 0.994869 Mean dependent var 12.76667Adjusted R-squared 0.992731 S.D. dependent var 9.746631S.E. of regression 0.830963 Akaike info criterion 2.728738Sum squared resid 8.285993 Schwarz criterion 3.025529Log likelihood -18.55865 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.769662F-statistic 465.3617 Durbin-Watson stat 1.553294Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 与预期不相符。评价：1） 可决系数为0.994869，数据相当大，可以认为拟合程度很好。2） F 检验，F=465.3617>F（5.12）=3,89，回归方程显著3） T 检验，X 1，X 2,X 3,X 4,X 5，X 6 系数对应的t 值分别为：1.254330，0.490501，-1.005377，0.951671，0.476621，均小于t （12）=2.179，所以所得系数都是不显著的。（3）根据Eviews 分析得到数据如下：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 11:12Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-StatisticX5 0.001032 2.20E-05 46.79946X6 -0.054965 0.031184 -1.762581C 4.205481 3.335602 1.260786 Prob. 0.0000 0.0983 0.2266R-squared 0.993601 Mean dependent var 12.76667Adjusted R-squared 0.992748 S.D. dependent var 9.746631S.E. of regression 0.830018 Akai
