毕业论文外文翻译-WTO与首都北京经济.doc

WTO and Capital Pekings EconomyJ effrey J . McMillanABSTRACTChinas accession to the WTO is an important event of our economic life in the course of reforms and opening. Therefore, Peking Municipal Government has established a special research team, which is designated to the study on the subject of Chinas accession to the WTO and its impacts on the economic development of the capital. Here are only some views on the primary results of the research.I. Impacts on the economy of the capitalChinas accession to the WTO means that our country will integrate and participate in the course of the economic globalization with an unprecedented extent and depth, and Peking will be in a brand new environment of development. The requirements of the market system reflected by the free trade principles and rules advocated by the WTO and the industrial orientation implied in the furtherance of the new international division of labor are consistent with the general direction of the economic development of the capital. In front of the wider opening of the market system, Peking, a city as the center for international communication, is endowed with resources of advanced technology and education, stronger comprehensive economic power and a fully established foreign-oriented pattern of multiple levels involved in wide fields, and thus Peking is in a more favorable competitive position as compared with other areas possibly with some relative advantages in international competition. Therefore, with correctly determined development strategy and tactics and initiatives in making full use of advantages and avoiding disadvantages, Peking may maximally share the benefits and opportunities brought forth by Chinas accession to the WTO and reduce the shocks and pulse, hence facilitating the promotion of the economic development of the capital. II. Basic principles to be observed in developing the economy of the capital upon Chinas accession to the WTOUpon Chinas accession to the WTO, the economic development of the capital shall abide by the principles of comparative advantages and stick to the principles of reforms and innovation and the principles of the balance of focus on both domestic and foreign opening, thus pushing the economic growth and increasingly expanding the three demands for investment, consumption and import and export. In view of investment, it is initially estimated that for the first years upon Chinas accession to the WTO, the domestic investment growth will be impacted by about 1-2%, the growth of the utilization of foreign investment will be impacted by 8-10%, and calculated on the basis of the current investment composition, total investment of fixed assets will witness a growth of 2-3.5%. Based on the elasticity of fixed asset against GDP from 1982 through 1998, the growth of GDP will be promoted by 1.5-2.5%. In view of consumption, during the initial period, Chinas accession to the WTO will promote the growth rate of total residential consumption by 1-1.5%, and the growth rate of the ultimate total annual consumption will be promoted by about 0.6%, which means that upon complete realization of the agreement commitments, Chinas accession to the WTO will promote the growth of total residential consumption by 5-6% in Peking, with the growth of the ultimate total annual consumption promoted by about 4%, thus bringing forth the growth of GDP by 2-2.5%. In view of import and export, the export of the traditional advantageous products of Peking Municipality will witness more growth, especially that of light textile products and mechanic-electrical products. Upon Chinas accession to the WTO, the demands for import of the whole municipality witnesses obvious increase at the growth rate over that of export, and the situation of more import than export may not change. In view of employment, general trend is that the sustained economic growth will bring forth the increase of total employment, and the situation of more supply of labor than demand may be alleviated. Especially, the total introduction of foreign investment by Peking will witness more growth, and the development of tertiary industry will be accelerated, which may create new jobs though the pressure of employment is still big in a short term. With the accession to the WTO，the economic development of the capital is sure to face a issue of optimization and upgrading of industrial composition. According to our analysis, the industries with more development opportunities of the capital mainly include agriculture, hi-tech, foods industry, light industry, tourism, scientific, educational, cultural and health causes, information consulting industry, and exhibition industry. The industries with more challenges of the capital include electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry, petrochemical industry, auto industry, machinery industry, metallurgical industry, building material industry, financial and insurance industry, commercial and beverage industry, transportation and post industry. Accordingly, we will carry out adjustment of industrial composition based on the above-mentioned analysis. III. Impacts on foreign economy and trade of the capitalAt present, there exists obvious gaps between the foreign trade management system of our country and the requirements of the WTO, which are embodied as follows: （1）Incomplete system of laws and regulations; （2）High import tariffs;（3）Numerous onus administrative measures of import and export: currently, 35 varieties of import commodities and 59 varieties of export commodities adopt licensing administration, most of which are not permitted for imposition of import and export restrictions by the WTO;（4）Failure to fully implement non-discriminatory principles, such as not adopting national treatment with foreign investment enterprises;（5）Insufficient transparency in foreign economic and trade policies.（6）The resources control and environment pressurePeking belongs to serious water shortage region, person all the water resources shortage 300 sign a square rice, only occupy quantity for the national person of 1/8, person in world all occupies quantity of 1/30, the water resources supply and demand antinomy's turning worse continuously will be the suburban area economy to develop main check and supervision factor;Resources quantity in land is limited, spare resources shortage, the agriculture uses ground to reduce gradually;The village labor force character is hard to satisfy the objective demand that the economy develops quickly.In the meantime, the suburban area is the ecosystem natural cover of the capital city, the ecosystem environment foundation still weaker, constuct and protect ecosystem environment and carry out and can keep on a development to face huge mission of in the economy the development the process. Face new situation, the suburban area economy the development still exists some antinomies and problem, main performance at:The economic total amount and structure and capital city position,economy movement mechanism and market economy request,the industrialization level and modernization strategy,small town the development and construction internationalize the metropolis,the farmer income growth speed and contract the city country difference, etc. still exists not adapt of place.How develop the niche,science and technology,information of the suburban area well etc. advantage, resolve these antinomies and problem further, BE"15" periodses speed the suburban area economy development step,the exaltation agriculture and village modernize level face of important topic. The influence that joins WTO to the capital city outside traid mainly expresses for the traditional advantage product export growth, the exit of the traditional market steady growth, the newly arisen market export will have already greatlied compare to increase as well, each kind of product that export a business enterprise is subjected to the influence degree dissimilarity, the overseas-funded enterprises advantage is obvious, outside traid the professional company difficulty compare greatly, import may significant growth, serve the trade income and expend all will with sooner the speed increase.Will exceed the goods trade to attain this year according to statistics 40 have another hundred million.Drawing on the foreign capital influence to the capital city to mainly express for the policy will make further adjustment;To the special policy of the overseas-funded enterprises to citizen the treatment change;Loosen outward a company the industry realm of the investment;Increase the clarity that the outside company invests law,laws. The impacts of the accession of the WTO on the foreign trade of the capital are mainly reflected as follows: the export of traditional advantageous industries will witness growth, the export of traditional market will witness stable growth, the export of the emerging market will also witness rapid growth, the impacts are different on the products of various export-oriented enterprises whereby the advantages of foreign-invested enterprises are obvious and while the difficulties of professional foreign trade companies may be big. Import may witness a big growth with the incomes and expenditures of trade in services growing even quicker. According to statistics, trade in services will exceed trade in goods by more than RMB4b. The impacts on the introduction of foreign investment of the capital are mainly as follows: policies will be further adjusted; the preferential policies with foreign-invested enterprises will shift to national treatment; the industrial fields will be extended for foreign investment; and the transparency will be enhanced in the laws and regulations on foreign investmentIV. Policy proposals on the foreign economic and trade development of the capital and speeding up the reforms of state-owned foreign trade enterprises.For the institutional reforms of foreign economic and trade systems, the administrative functions of the government will be changed in foreign economy and trade, and the municipal government will adopt measures for streamlining the establishment and institutions, simplifying the procedures of the approval and ratification functions, enhancing efficiency and improving the environment quality; speeding up the construction in foreign-related economic laws and regulations and policies; and making better use of the roles of foreign economic and trade intermediaries and institutions. For trade in goods, mainly making use of the advantages of the capital for creating a good trade environment; implementing the strategy of trade promotion based on science and technology, optimizing the composition of export commodities, increasing the export of hi-tech produces by even greater extent, and especially focusing on developing the software export in Peking; implementing the strategy of “going out” for development of transnational operations; and expending the subjects for operations of foreign trade, thus forming large-scale foreign economic and trade groups.In terms of trade in services, mainly establishing and perfecting the management system of the trade in services and formulating plans; perfecting the policy provisions on service industries and the policies on trade in services; and speeding up the cultivation of the talents in trade of services. In terms of utilization of foreign investment, mainly reinforcing the strength in improving investment climate; adjusting the strategy for introduction of foreign merchants and capital; and expanding the fields, channels and means. The measures for reforms of foreign trade enterprises include expansion of opening, adopting the important way of introduction of foreign investment and the process of industries, with the sales channels of foreign investment, thus reducing the threshold of policies; carrying out enterprise restructuring for advancement by streamlining; allowing for employees holding of shares, option incentives, and formulating relaxed systems for maximal maneuvering and scheduling of the initiatives of people; allowing for the adoption of conversion of debts into shares; and allowing for the bankruptcy of foreign trade companies. W T O 与 首 都 北 京 经 济摘要中国入世，是中国经济生活和改革开放进程中的重大事件。为此，北京市政府建立了专门研究小组就中国加入WTO对首都经济发展课题进行研究。现仅就研究的初步成果谈一些看法。关键字 经济发展 投资 政策 改革的影响 环境1 对首都经济的影响加入WTO 意味着中国将以前所未有的广度和深度融入并参与经济全球化进程，北京面临着全新的发展环境。世界经济贸易组织所提倡的贸易自由化原则及其规则所反映的市场体制的要求以及在推进新的国际分工中隐含的产业导向与首都经济发展的总体方向是一致的。面对更加开放的市场体系，北京作为国际交往中心的城市地位，具有科技教育发达的资源禀赋，较强的综合经济实力以及业已形成的全方位、多层次、宽领域的对外格局，使北京相对于其他地区处于较为有利的竞争地位，在国际竞争中有可能争得某种相对的优势。因此，确定正确的发展战略和策略，积极主动、因势利导、趋利避害完全可以最大限度地分享入世所带来的利益和机遇，最大限度地减少震荡和冲击，从而有利地推动首都经济发展。2 入世后发展首都经济要遵循的基本原则入世后，首都经济发展将遵循发挥比较优势的原则；坚持改革创新的原则；对内对外开放并重的原则，推动经济增长，继续扩大投资、消费、进出口三大需求。 在投资方面，初步估算在加入世贸后的前三年将影响国内投资增长约1_2个百分点，利用外资投资增长约8_10，按照目前投资结构计算，固定资产投资总体上将有2_3.5增幅。根据1982_1998年固定资产对GDP的弹性系数，将会促进GDP有1.5_2.5的增幅；在消费方面，入世初期将促进居民消费总量增长速度约提高1_1.5，最终消费总量年增长速度约提高0.6，也就是说到协议承诺全部实现以后，入世将促进北京居民消费总量增长约提高5_6，最终消费总量提高约4，带动GDP增长2_2.5；在进出口方面，北京传统优势产品出口将有较多增长，特别是轻纺产品和机电产品。入世后，全市进口需求明显增加，增幅将超过出口，进口大于出口的局面不会改变；在就业问题方面，总趋势是经济的持续增长会带来就业总量增加，劳动力供大于求的状况可以缓解，特别是北京吸引外资总量会有较大增长，第三产业发展速度加快，这两方面都将创造出新的就业岗位，但短期内就业的压力仍比较大。随着中国加入WTO，首都经济发展也必然有一个产业结构优化升级的问题。中国分析首都面临发展机遇的产业主要包括农业、高科技产业、食品饮料及轻工业、旅游业、科教文卫事业、信息咨询产业、会展业；首都面临挑战的产业主要包括电子和通讯设备制造业、石化行业、汽车业、机械行业、冶金行业、建材业、金融保险业、商业饮食业、运输邮电业。中国将按上述分析进行产业结构调整。3 对首都经贸的影响目前中国外贸管理体制与世贸组织的要求存在着明显差距，具体表现为：（1）法律法规体系不健全； 在论及“统治”（管理）的时候，合法性是一个很复杂的概念。它可以通过选举和反映一个团体政治意愿的代表赢得多数票而产生。此外，一个统治机构还可以通过它的决策和工作结果的合理性和有效性来赢得权威和公众的接受。“人民主权论”（人民选举并有权处理政务）和“有效性”（即决策和工作结果的合理性和有效性）在一定程度上是可以互相替代的。这样，尽管一些政府在位期间的治理结果并不是非常显著，但是却可以因为连续赢得选举而继续掌权（例如，上个世纪的阿根廷的统治）。在另一些情况下，政府虽然缺乏民主性（如新加坡），但是却可以通过他们的有效治理和满足公众的要求来维系公众的支持和接受。作为一种惯例，在人们感觉技术性和科学性很强的领域里，人们似乎更乐意把权力让给专家决策机构，由他们来做出决策。例如，看起来只要经济能够持续强劲，美国公众就会乐意把货币政策交到并不十分民主的阿兰.格林斯潘领导的联邦储备委员会手中。 体制也是合法性的一个重要方面。一个专门的决策机构的权力不仅取决于那些做出决定的人对选民的责任感或者他们对可选结果的合理性的理解，还取决于决策机构赖以存在的更为广泛的体制的民主性和“有效性”。例如，美国最高法院具有高度的合法性。虽然他的法官不是选举产生的，而且有时他们的决定看起来缺乏充分的合理性；但是，美国最高法院深深地嵌在由立法机构、执法机构和司法机构组成的广泛的体制结构中，这种体制提供了一种严密的监督制衡的网状结构。从总体上来说，这种体制为美国公众和他们的政治领导人之间提供了一种强有力的联系而且产生了很好的效果。 从历史上来看，现存贸易体制并不是由当选的对特定的公众负责的官员来制定的，相反，其合法性仅源于人们感知到的“有效性”及其作为国际经济管理结构的一个组成部分所具有的价值。确实，这种GATTWTO体制可能代表了二十世纪专家决策的最高水平和人们信奉这种以官僚主义合理性为核心的统治模式的观念。直到最近，贸易体制依然在受益于一种专家决策的理念即：国际经济和贸易政策制定是技术性极强的领域，最好交给由合格专家组成的精英小组来完成。这样在官员与选举的必要联系方面，由指定产生的贸易官员（包括国家级的和国际级的）与选举产生的政府之间的联系似乎是相当充分的。 但是，公众对于贸易和制定贸易政策的理解已经改变了，贸易不再被认为是只有技术专家才可以精通的晦涩的政策领域。相反地，现在有关贸易的议题和行动已经成为世界人民广泛关注和讨论的焦点。贸易体制不可能再以专家统治论的合理性来顺顺当当地发挥作用。正如我将要在下文详细讨论的一样，由于缺乏真正的“人民主权”赖以存在的基础，在世贸组织的合法性受到置疑和批评的情况下，其合法性的另一种替代基础“有效性”就成为必不可少的条件。因此，这个组织需要重新建立其“有效性”的声誉。不仅需要同那些与贸易政策利益相关的各国公众之间建立一种新的联系，同时，还应加强能够监督制衡世贸组织运行的体制结构。（2）进口关税水平较高；（3）进出口管理的行政措施过多：目前实行许可证管理的进口商品35种，出口商品59种，其中大部分属于世贸组织未允许对进出口加以限制的商品；（4）未能完全实施非歧视原则，如对外商投资企业尚未实行国民待遇；（5）对外经贸政策透明度不够；(6