代币狂热：区块链的燃料（英文版）.docx

TOKEN FRENZYThe fuel of the blockchainApril 2018GP. BullhoundDeabnakers in TechnologyImportant disclosures appear at the back of this reportGP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct AuthorityICO FUNDING BOOMFunding explosion in 2017» For blockchain companies ICO funding outperforms venture capital funding by a factor of 5.while J USD of venture capital funding usually franslafes into over 4 USD of ICO volume whenlooking at the top 10 ICO roundsTop 10 ICOs with prior venture capital fundingTotal venture capital fundingvs. ICO funding (USDm)名4parity181.4x8TfinXBBLOCKSTACK愈 enigmaO DOMRAIDER14.1X11.8x9.3x5.1 xSource: Pitchbook. Cryptocompore. ConrrKykelccp. ICO Bench. ICO Bazccr. ICO Oops ond puW>dy ovolob的 data.Note: includes CsclOMJd venture capM rcunOs. IncMdcs ICOs with > I U$Dm funeb rarxxl and »CO end do：。between 20 IS end 2017. 1| Kik dd not stad as blockchain pcoject butreised signficant ICO funding. This resulted in a dslorlbn of the data presented.16GRBullhoundINVESTOR FOCUSVenture capital vs. ICO preferencesUSD 5,642m ICO Venture CapitalUSD 5,642m ICO Venture Capital» Due to the surge in 2017, ICOs now constitute around / of all funding in blockchain starl-ups in 2015-2017» Projects with the potential to generate traction near term prefer ICO funding. Longer term ecosystem projects are less suited for coin offeringsICO vs. venture capital funding volume across categories (2015-2017)Transactions & payment ServicesSocial, games & gamblingUSD 786mf 10 NEUFUND8EXCryptocurrency exchanges & tradingUSD 1,451mIdentHy, authentication & securityUSD 407mOtherUSD 1,040mEcosystemUSD 946m询 Bancor iC.OTlQneo JbUiadoLUSD I.OIImSource: R1chb©ck. Cryptoccmpare, Ccinmcrketcap. ICO Bench, ICO Ba«acr. ICO Dropi and pubbcly available data.Note: Inches cisclosed veeture capital rcunas. indUdes ICOs with >1 USDm Kxxis rased ond ICO end date 2015 ond 2017.I) Other includes Ooud Services. Emerpnse Biocxchan Sduhcns, Supply Chon Wuhcns and companies vHthcut Woc*cboin focus.GP. Bull houndRETURN OF VENTURE CAPITALEquity funding into blockchain is here to stayWith the rapid rise of the ICO funding market, the period from venture capital funding to the ICO has shortened significantly. This is partly driven by the fact that venture capital funding typically available for a couple of years of development was completely overtaken by ICOs as a relatively young exit route promising more or less similar exit times.As shown in the graph, many younger companies pursuing an ICO have completely ignored venture capital funding and started raising money through a private pre-ICO round, followed up by a public ICO.However with the predicted cooldown of the ICO market, we expect to see venture capital funding picking up versus ICOs and periods of venture capital funding before ICOs increasing. Venture capital with a strong understanding and hands-on mentality that can odd value to a proposal and its execution will clearly win over crowd investor money.Number of years of venture capital funding prior to ICO vs. year founded4+ years3-4 years2-3 years1 -2 years<1 year4+ years3-4 years2-3 years1 -2 years<1 year2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018» Horizontal axis denotes founding year» Vertical axis denotes time period between year founded and the ICO financing round» Bubble size denotes number of companies / projects for a given founding year and time periodSource： Pitchbock, Cryptocompcre. Cormorfcetcap, ICO Bench. >CO Bazaar. ICO Drops and pubticly ovailaWe data.Note: Inchdes dbck»ed ventkxe copitolrourds. includes ICOs with > 1 USDm funds raised and ICO end dote between 2015 and 2017.GP.BullhoundINVESTOR INFLUENCEICO performance is driven by reputation»Investments by major blockchain investors and post-ICO trading performance are positively correlated» Engagement of a reputable investor in a project appears to be a key determinant for success. It remainsto be seen if contributions of reputable investors improve projects or merely serve as a key orientation forICO investors» Long-term post ICO performance will likely reveal more details on the question whether reputable investorsincrease the probability of long-term successOverallOther investors/no investorsTop ventu re capitalinvestorsMultiple (normalised vs. ETH)Funds raisedjUSDm|Funding cap reached'21#ICOsSource: Pitch beck. Cr>ptccompare, Coinmartcetccp, CO Bench, ICO Baracr. CO Drops end pubicVavaiabte data NoIe: Inc bees ICOswith >1 USDm funds raised and CO end date between 2015 and 2017.1) 6O-doyrrwItfote of ICO price |acjusied fa ETH price development. ICO vobme-*A«ighled). Perfonronce muriples oriy inchde ICOs with ovaitaWe 60<kjy trodng 8to Doio o$ of Mach 5.2018.2) Only inch8s iCOs stich specie o bad cop on th8r fur<jro$e.3| Dehned os inhesion that invested in mae Then $b( btockchcin proiecb.GP. BullhoundINTRA-YEAR SENTIMENTAfter peaking in October 2017,the ICO market has cooled down»ln Q3 & Q4 2017 there was a large number of smaller, less successful ICOsMonthly ICO countJan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Max, of ICOsOctober 2017 ICO Volumo > USD 5m ICO Volume < USD 5m72 ICO Volume > USD 5m ICO Volume < USD 5mSource： TckenOoto. C(yptoconx>cfe a<xj pubidv ovoio&te data. 1) Includes o» »COs in the dotobose from toKer<Joio wtch hove been c<ynpie：ed ond feature o specified ICO dote. »CO$ Hth tifxjvaloWe funcfc rosed ore assumed to have rcised < 5 USDm. 2)iCOs whch exceeded the funding cop arc recognized 6 100% in the average. ONy includes ICO5 which specified a herd cod on thcr fundraKc. Mqcc outicn bc excluded2020GRBullhoundFUNDING GOALSICO hype and performanceMany projects conducting an ICO specify so什 ond hard caps in their whitepaper. The former indicates the minimum amount of funds required to pursue the project. Should this threshold not be reached, all funds invested in the project are returned. The latter represents the upper boundary of funds required for the project. Funds in excess of this figure are returned.The chart below examines trading performance in relation to funds raised as a fraction of communicated hard cap. The bar to the right shows the performance of projects that reached or exceeded their funding goals. It should be noted that not all ICOs specify funding caps, essentially "taking all they can get". The largest ICO in 2017, Tezos. collected USD 232m without specifying the amount of funds the project would require.Reaching (or in some cases exceeding the funding cop is positively linked to trading performance. Projects that reached less than 50% of their funding goal underperformed on average. In contrast, projects that exceeded their pre-specified fund requirements were able to more than double the quote of their token 60 days after their ICO.Average 60-daf performance by % of ftituling cap reached049%50-99%>100% Multiple11) (normalised vs. ETH| # of ICOsSource: Oyptocompace. Coinmarkefcap. K2O Bench. ICO Bafcxr.lCO Oops and putiicfy available data Mote: Includes ICOs wrth specified hard cop.>l USDm funds rased 0 nd CO end dote Detwveen 2015 ond 2017.1) 60-day multiple of ICO price (ocus？ed tor ETH prtce deveicpment. tCO voiunx?-wc>ght<xi|, Pcrfcrnxjnco multiply，ontymcludo ICOs avalaWc 60<iay trading data. Dato os o? Mcrch $, 2018GP. Bullhound0 10 1 00 x=oxn0 10 10|10 1 0 OS0 0 10 Po0 10 1 0 o 2°.+a s1+x 的+2a+21 ;上士，而,>0Mxn xlBy+n.(1.x+y+2a)的 a+3g+x)0 10 1 01 9 l» 1 0 0, w 11 ° W 1 0 0 10 Po° I 0 0 io3 0LEADING PROTOCOLS& blockchain ecosystemsGR Bull houndKEY BASE PROTOCOLSWlto dominates the market?ETHEREUM WAVES BITCOIN NEO# of ICOs to dateICO volume (USD)3,213m63m27m38mMaternity of platform3293(year of release)1201S)(2016)(2059)(2O15|Market cap ratio l>21.2%17.2%1.0%1.8%Market cap share 巧18.1%<0.1%41.4%0.02%SETTING THE PACEfor blockchain developersJoseph LubinCo-founder Ethereum & Founder CvnsenSyswe hove reoched a turning pont. Technology has significant advanced our crvisation: and yet. over the last few decades, certain insfilutions have lost the trust of vast swathes of the population. As a result there are a lot of people v/ho believe in the philosophy of trust and decentralisctk>n - this is the fundamentoi principle bebnd the biockchain.Con$enSy$ is a globed organi$otk>n that specialises in developing blockchain software - primarily within the Etberevm ecosystem -for institutions, cofpototkxis. and governments. It also dedicates a tot of time towards building the infrastructure of the pubic Ethereum ecosystem, ensuring that it con process <x<xjnd 6bn requests per day.Ethereum has $er itself apart from other blockchon platfccms as far more expressive and accessibte. if you can buid a web or mobile application then you can build a decentralised mobile application on Ethereum. Therefore, it has captured the imagination of software developers around the world, not only the early adopters of blockchoin.Leodership 8 certainly something that is very important and that has contributed to the development of Ethereum. Vitalik Butefin is an exceptional scientist wti。has ted the progress of many aspects of the Ethereum protocol. However, he is only one of many immensely talented leaders in Ethereum - it is a collective ecosystem which draws strength from the breadth ond diversity of the people operating on it.One analyst estimated that the number of deveiopers working on the Ethereum protocol K 30 times lorgef than Its closest corrx>etitof. the iBM-bocked Hyperiedger fabric. We have strived to retain Ethereum's founding principles of friendliness and cooperation as it ho$ grown. This focus has ensured that we hove maintained the diversity of people operating on Ethereum. meaning governance and leadership S this community do not reiy on one single person, but thrive on the collective input of different classes of actors.As a result, the only metrtc I truly pay attention to is lhe number of developers operating in trie Ethereum ecosystem. Certainly. ConsenSys has expanded substantiaily over the past couple of years ond we now hove around 700 employees spanning 28 countries around the worid. Likewise, the rise in monetary vdue of Ether - the cryptocurrency ctosely associated with the Ethereum protocol - has added value to the ecosystem and drawn the attention of developers. enlreprenGurs. and invesfofs. all of which are vital to our future success.This grov/th has, of course, created some challenges. Ethereum was buit primariy as an elegant solution to creating a blockchoin protocol that reflected fundamental principles of trust, privacy and confidentiality. While most developers have spent the last three decades attempting to buiki a gobol it Infrastructure, we instead focused on harnessing cryptographic techniques that protected our basic ethos but did not operate of scale.One of our key objectives over the coming months will, therefore, be building scdobility bock into our infrastructure. There are solutions already being developed - sharping, for one, provides a potential solution to the problem of scalabiity. Similarly, I believe that 2018 wil see substantial strides made in the development of an intrenot that operates between different blockchoin systems - this will oiso enoWe the Ethereum protocol to scale.Banks and financial institutions were the first to tap into the potential of blockchain to create entirely new business models. Currently, vast numbers of institutions ore testing the water and using private, permissioned blockchain ptatforms to innovate. Across every industry - from supply chains to energy, insurance and education - there is o &ve to move away from deed digital infrastructure to colaboration on cfcstributed ledgers.A simitaf phenomenon is taking place with the rise ol the ICO. While there is some irrational exuberance attached to this new model, it is a revolutionary technology that will create o pctodigm shift. in my view, a model of businesses offering services to consumers in a one-way transaction is simply not going fo last. In its place, a market sitting on a protocoKinven, open piatfonn with many $tokehoWer$z none of whom overly control or monetise th© system wH devetop. Today's developments ond the rie of token offerings t$ the start of a rransformation.When it comes to competition. Ethereum has built such a strong network effect among thousands of developers that It fetains an exceprionaiv strong positton ahead of other similar protocols. There are some that emerge and create c level of stability, sveh os Dfinify or RChain. However, these projects hove consisrentty stnjggted to build the community that we have created through Ethereum.GP.BullhoundWHY ETHEREUM?Explanations for its dominanceRelative ease-of-useStrong communityStrong communityEthereum offers the easy-to-use scripting language Solidity and. amongst others, the ERC20 token standard which allows developers to build decentralised applications on top of Ethereum instead of needing to build and maintain their own blockchain.Better performance metricsEthereum enjoys broad acceptance in the community and can arguably be described as the standard protocol for decentralised applications. Strong supporters like ConsenSys or the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance further drive the momentum.Ethereum offers some of the best block time / speed ratios in the market (currently below 15 seconds) and is the first offering these advancements in performance. The aim of Ethereum is 50 thousand transactions per second with no loss of decentralisation.Clear vision, leadership and credibilityAddressed scamsApart from the DAO case, the Ethereum community has been active in evaluating the feasibility and legitimacy of newly launched projects, offering an expert view for those who want to listen.While founders and key developers of Ethereum might deny the leadership aspect of their position, they've managed to act coherently and consistently over time offering a promise of long-term security through multiple independent development teams and preference of algorithmic governance.GP. Bull houndKEY CHALLENGESto be solvedGR Bull houndKEY CHALLENGES TO BE SOLVEDAddressing these topics willhelp enable mass adoptionBLOCKCHAIN SCALABILITYDECENTRALISATION OF EXCHANGESSTAYING PRIVATEEFFECTIVE GOVERNANCECONSENSUS EFFICIENCYGP. BullhoundBLOCKCHAIN SCALABILITYHow to increase throughputSTATUS QUOVISA56,000ETHEREUM ACTUAL DAILY TRANSACTION THROUGHPUTAlready operating ciose to its limit, leading to congestion and delaysL8m 1.2m 0.6mmax. capacityJon 17 Apr 17 Jul