2030年可持续电池价值链的愿景（英文）.docx

GLOBAL BATTERY ALLIANCEBATTERIES POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTWORLD ECONOMIC FORUMCOMMITTED TOIMPROVING THE STATEOF THE WORLDInsight ReportA Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030 Unlocking the Full Potential to Power Sustainable Development and Climate Change MitigationSeptember 2019MethodologyThe analysis in this report is underpinned by an analytical fact-base and a model of the battery value chain. The analysis focuses on lithium-ion batteries and theirapplication in road transport, energy storage as well as consumer electronics. A short overview of lead-acid batteries is included as a separate section in this report.The model focuses on a time horizon until 2030, and simulates material flows along the value chain, associated energy use and GHG emissions. It also models value flows and associated investments. Economic benefits are assessed based on value creation within the value chain. Other economic benefits or costs, e.g. societal benefits on the health system from reductions in local air pollution, were not part of the quantitative analysis. The risk assessment on social dimensions (e.g. working conditions, child labour) as well as on other environmental dimensions (e.g. water and air pollution) were not quantitatively analysed buttheir impacts are characterized based on interviews and research of the literature.The fact-base and model were developed in a three-step approach. First, a "base case" was constructed, and material flows, emissions and value flows modelled.- Material flows for the base case are based on the expected future demand of batteries. This demand, in turn, was modelled for mobility, energy storage and consumer electronics using base case assumptions for battery technology development and innovation in the mining and production processes.- GHG emissions and value flows were modelled using energy intensities and expected cost developments for batteries, components and materials.- For the assumptions, proprietary databases and models from McKinsey & Company (e.g. the Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective) and SYSTEMIQwere used, as well as stakeholder perspectives, research papers and expert interviews. A full list of sources appears in the bibliography.Second, major levers that can positively influence GHG emissions and/or value flows were identified and described and their impact estimated.一 Levers were identified based on existing analyses and were augmented based on stakeholder discussions.- Potential target state" aspirations for each of these levers were then developed, and impact on GHG emissions and value flows simulated.Third, after simulating both “base case" and "target state" outcomes, multiple quality and feasibility tests on the developed scenarios were conducted. On GHG emissions specifically, the model was used to estimate:- The GHG emission reduction potential of the identified levers on Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions within the battery value chainThe contribution to GHG emission reduction in the transport and power sectors through additional adoption of battery-powered mobility applications and energy storage systems (Scope 3 emissions to the battery value chain).Chapter 1 - Batteries are a core technology to realize the energy transition and broaden energy access around the worldGlobal battery demand is expected to grow by 25% annually to reach 2,600 GWh in 2030. Batteries play an increasingly important role in three areas: 1) decarbonizing transport through electrification; 2) enabling the shift from fossil fuel to renewable power generation as a dispatchable source of electricity; and 3) helping to provide access to electricity to off-grid communities. This means batteries can fundamentally reduce GHG emissions in the transport and power sectors, which currently comprise roughly 40% of global GHG emissions, and contribute to the UN SDGs.Battery demand is growing rapidlyBetween 2010 and 2018, battery demand grew by 30% annually and reached a volume of 180 GWh in 2018. In the base case, the market is expected to keep growing, at an estimated 25% annual rate, to reach a volume of 2,600 GWh in 2030.The main drivers of demand growth are the electrification of transportation and the deployment of batteries in electricity grids (see Figure 3). By 2030, passenger cars w川 account for the largest share (60%) of global battery demand, followed by the commercial vehicle segment with 23%. Geographically, China is the biggest market with 43%.Consumer electronics, which account for more than 20% of the market today, w川 represent only a marginal share of the global battery market in 2030.Figure 3: Global battery industry growth by application and region by 2030Compared to today, global battery demand is expected to grow by a factor of - 14 to reach -2,600 in 2030Global battery demand by application GWh in 2030, base case14x971282229201820202,6232,333Electric mobilityCAGR, % p.a.Global battery demand by region CAGR, GWh in 2030, base case% p.a.2,6231,12280820252030Energy i storage I Consumer y electronics26China382018 and 2030 battery demand varies by region and application GWh/year, base case#x growth factor'18 to '30250 GWh/yearElectric mobilityEnergy storagex140Consumerelectronics x1.1Chinax53 x2.8x17x110 x2.0Rest of worldx64. x247.3Source: World Economic Forum, Global Battery Alliance; McKinsey analysisBatteries are a key technology to achieve the Paris Agreement and support the UN SDGsBatteries act as energy storage in EVs, and more than 34 million EVs (hybrid, PHEVs and BEVs) are expected to be sold in 2030, according to the base case scenario. They also can be an energy buffer in the power system, supporting the integration of renewable energy generation as a major base source.This contribution is critical to realize the Paris Agreement. Together, the transport and power sectors currently comprise around 40% of global GHG emissions. The Paris Agreement has set out the ambition to "keep global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even furtherto 1.5 degrees Celsius”. This 1.5 target would require net-zero global human- caused Commissions by 2050. According to a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report,3 45% of global human-caused CO2 emissions need to be reduced by 2030 compared to 2010 levels to achieve that objective.Besides decarbonization, batteries also contribute to the UN SDGs directly and indirectly (see Figure 4). For example, they enable decentralized and off-grid energy solutions. Bringing energy to the 850 million people without access to electricity today can increase productivity, improve livelihoods and improve health on a large scale.Figure 4: Sustainability benefits of batteriesThe impact of the global battery industry spans across a variety of UN Sustainable Development GoalsBatteries enable reductions in industries accounting for -39% of global GHG emissions in 2017.An estimated I I people are employed in the battery value chain, of which >1.6M work in developing countries (2018).Addressable UN Sustainable Development Goals1Mi#Partnerships, such as the Global Battery Alliance, help drive the sustainable expansion of the battery value chain to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals.,The transport sector includes road. rail, marine and aviation.Source: EU Publications Office; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2018; IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank Group, WHO, 2019; World Economic Forum, Global Battery AllianceBatteries enable the decarbonization of road transportRoad transport emissions account for 5.8 GtCO2e per year -almost 75% of all transport GHG emissions and 11% of global GHG emissions. Within road transport, passenger road transport is the largest emitter with 4.0 GtCO2e, followed by commercial road transport with 1.8 GtCO2e.Electrification is the key decarbonization lever for road transport. In use, EVs currently emit 30-60% fewer emissions than combustion engines depending on the power mix. Without action, global road transport emissions would continue to grow as a result of increased transport needs supplied by fossil fuels. However, electrification helps to decouple growth and CO2 emissions (see Figure 5). Next to reducing CO2 emissions, EVs also help to improve local air quality by avoiding other toxic emissions, for example, nitrogen oxide or particulate matter.Electrification is affecting all modes of road transportation. A rough breakdown of road transport presents three segments: passenger cars, commercial vehicles (low-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses) and 2-3-wheelers. This report focuses on the implications of batteries on passenger cars.However, electrification is also experiencing strong momentumwithin commercial vehicles. The electrification of city buses, for example, is growing significantly faster than that of passenger cars and trucks. For 2030, a market share of e-buses of 75% is expected in Europe. However, the largest e-bus market in the world is China. Already today, some 380,000 e-buses operate in China compared to only 1,500 in Europe. While commercial vehicle unit sales per year are factor 15 below passenger cars, their share in emissions in road transport accounts for roughly 30%. An electrification of commercial vehicles, therefore, has an overproportionate effect on emission avoidance in road transport.In use, EVs currently emit 30-60% fewer emissions than combustion engines depending on the power mix.nPassenger car transport is expected to electrify at a fast pace. In the base case, 215 million electric passenger vehicles (including hybrid, PHEVs and fully electric vehicles) will be on the road by 2030. This implies a 23% growth in new sales of electric passenger vehicles every year from 2018 to 2030. The principal drivers behind this demand growth are favourable regulations as well as increased consumer demand.Figure 5: Electrification to decouple growth and Commissions, despite global car pare growthAlthough the global car pare will keep growing, the decoupling of growth and CO2 emissions is expected due to increased electrificationCAGR, %p.a.The road transport sector accounts for -11% of global GHG emissions1. Percent23%With 5.8 GtCO自 the road transport sector accounts for 11 % of global GHG emissions1.although the total number of vehicles globally is expected to grow, electrification. Total number of vehicles globally, billionHEVPHEVBEV201720252030ICE1333.will help decouple road transport emissions3 from growth by 2030.CO2 emissions of new passenger cars sold globally, gCO2201720301 Excluding land-use. land-use-change and forestry2 Includes aviation, marine, rail, etc.3Tank-to-wheel emissionsSource: World Economic Forum, Global Battery Alliance; McKinsey analysisOver the medium term, the main driver behind increased consumer demand for EVs is their improved value proposition. EVs will become both cheaper and more convenient. On a total cost of ownership (TCO)4 basis, EVs are expected to achieve parity with fossil fuel-powered vehicles across the globe within the next decade. The timing of this breakeven varies based on different fuel and electricity prices, taxes, use cases, vehicle segments and subsidies. When EVs are used a lot, for example when they operate as taxis, their lower operating expenses result in TCO parity in most segments and regions already today.Along with lower costs, customer convenience improves as more public (fast-) charging stations are deployed. The expanding charging network also unlocks wider EV use cases, including applications such as long-distance travel.Governments have a range of policies to boost adoption. Financial subsidies and non-financial incentives (e.g. priority parking) increase consumer pull. Regulation placed on producers create a supply push. For example, Brazil, China, Europe, India, Mexico and North America have enacted low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs) targeting lower GHG emissions from new cars and imposing financial penalties if these are not met. In Europe, for example, emissions are capped at 95 gCO2/km from 2020 onwards and are required to fall another 37.5% to 59 gCO/km in 2030.5To hit the 2030 target, 25-40% of new vehicle sales need to be EVs. Some national governments have even defined targets for banning ICE vehicle sales as soon as 2025.Besides reducing carbon emissions, the reduction of local emissions is also a key driverfor electrification. Cities seek to protect their populations against harmful local emissions, such as particulates, and have started to enact zero- and low-emission-zones. Anotherdriver is energy security; EVs that do not require fossil fuels reduce the dependency on energy imports.Batteries facilitate the uptake of intermittent renewable energy sources by acting as a flexibility solutionWith 11.9 GtCO2, the power sector accounted for 23% of global GHG emissions in 2017. Across most markets, the energy mix is shifting towards intermittent renewables. In 2030, it is expected that 380 GW of additional renewable power generation capacity will be added, while generation from global fossil sources will decrease.6 In some markets, e.g. Germany and California, more than 50% of energy supply w川 come from renewables and intermittent renewable generation w川 account for more than 50% of the electricity supply post-2035.Grid-connected batteries are expected to be the dominant flexibility and stability solution in 2030.nThe intermittent nature of renewables will drive strong growth in demand for balancing-solutions that enable renewable energy to be available when needed. Batteries are ideal short-term energy buffers and can be used both at large scale ("front-of-meter")as well as close to an energy user (ubehind-the-metern). They are more flexible than other options, such as pumped hydro, as they do not require special geographical circumstances and they can be deployed both on large and small scales. They have a very low response time, making them suitable for grid stabilization measures.Grid-connected batteries are expected to be the dominant flexibility and stability solution in 2030 with roughly 220 GWh expected to be installed. From 2015 to 2018, energy storage battery demand grew by 60-70% per year. The main underlying drivers of growth are:- Higher shares of intermittent renewables - beyond a certain share of intermittent renewables, depending on the individual country, every additional GW of wind capacity implies the need for roughly 1 GWh of battery capacity, and every additio