全球奢侈品：当前趋势.docx

Global Research 10 JanuaryEquitiesGlobalRetailers, SpecialtyJulie Zhuang, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7567 1888Helen Brand, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7568 4395Jay SoleAnalyst +1-212-713 3559Susy TibaldiAnalyst +44-20-7568 5989Fred SpeirsAnalyst +44-20-7568 8829Carlos Castellanos, CFAAssociateAnalyst +1-212-713 1435Eddie Ryan, CFA AssociateAnalyst +1-212-713 90282019Global LuxuryUBS Evidence Lab inside: #TrendingNow (#3)Q4 to November social media data by UBS Evidence Lab offers unique insightIn this edition we add US brands for the first time, and highlight signs that Gucci's brand heat has started to plateau. Within soft luxury, Gucci remains at the top of the league table closely followed by Dior and Louis Vuitton, but its key social media metrics now show moderating growth after a long period of acceleration. Within jewellery, Tiffany and Cartier are equally liked on Instagram although the US brand sees lower engagement among followers. Within watches Rolex remains the absolute king with the best engagement rate of all 25 brands we monitor.Downgrade Kering to Neutral on signs of Gucci brand heat plateauingThe latest social media trends on Gucci lead us to downgrade Kering to Neutral today. It is worth stressing that Gucci's brand momentum continues to be the best in class with its follower base reaching 30m. However compared to its own social media historical trends, the growth trajectory is certainly slowing. Average likes per post were up only +10% y/y in Q4 to Nov (vs +77% in Q3, see Figure 5), and its 3MMA growth of Google Search interest in Italy is also likely to turn flat soon (Figure 6). These metrics are highly correlated to Gucci organic growth historically; while we do not expect a dramatic slowdown of sales growth already in Q4, it is difficult to see brand heat go higher from here.US brands added - local names helped by acquisition of European brands Michael Kors has 2x the follower base of Coach and Kate Spade combined, yet its total monthly likes are lower than Coach which indicates lower engagement level among the followers. Versace on the other side are seeing strong momentum with likes per post up 50%y/y. Tiffany has broader reach than Cartierwith 9.5m followers (27% higher) but likes per post are broadly similar meaning slightly lower engagement than Cartier.What defines engagement? We track 6 key metrics with UBS Evidence Lab Instagram usage is high among m川ennials, so we can gauge their engagement with brands by looking at these six key Instagram metrics: 1) total monthly likes; 2) number of posts; 3) average likes per post; 4) number of followers; 5) m/m follower growth; 6) engagement rate - defined as average likes per post divided by the follower size. Google Search trends offer us extra granularity on brand heat evolution by region.This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 60. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DiorDior's average likes per Instagram post (c50k) stands at c.1/2 of Gucci or LV despite having a similarly sized follower base. It currently has c27m followers, a touch behind Louis Vuitton. Its Instagram performance benefits a great deal from having a strong cosmetics business, with its most liked post in Q4 to Nov being the J*adore the New Absolu perfume campaign (616k likes). A large part of Dior's interactions with followers comes from video views though, which we see as a lower quality indicator as any view longer than 3 seconds would count. The average likes per post - a metric that requires more active in put from the followers -remained relatively stable YTD (Figure 22).Note that the spike of Dior's Google Search interest in France in 2H17 was most likely linked to its exhibition in Paris entitled "Christian Dior, couturier du reve".Figure 20: Dior - Instagram follower, m/m growthFigure 21: Dior - number of Instagram posts (monthly)Source: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramDior - Interactions per Instagram postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 22: Dior - Instagram likes, y/y growth (quarterly) interactions per post likes per postTotal likes N# of posts Likes per Instagram postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Instagram. Interactions = likes + comments+video viewsFigure 24: Dior - Google search interest 3MMA growthSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 25: Dior - Google search interest, France120Figure 26: Dior - Google search interest, Italy100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 20172018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 27: Dior - Google search interest, US250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 20172018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 28: Dior - Google search interest, Japan700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 20180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Google20ChanelChanel has not seen much improvement in its social media performance, although at an absolute level it maintains a leadership position with the largest follower base in our Instagram monitor, which ought to have benefitted from a strong cosmetics business (similarly to Dior).We note a significant increase in Chanel's monthly number of posts, which almost doubled in 2018 YTD. Its average likes per post have reached 100k long before any other brand (in 2016 already), which however stagnated subsequently and are seeing gradual declines with the more aggressive posting strategy.Figure 29: Chanel - Instagram follower, m/m growthChanel followersm/m growthFigure 30: Chanel - number of Instagram posts (monthly)Total posts videosSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 31: Chanel - Interactions per Instagram postinteractions per post likes per postFigure 32: Chanel - Instagram likes, y/y growth (quarterly)Source: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Instagram. Interactions = likes + comments + video viewsFigure 33: Chanel - Google search interest 3 MM A growthSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 34: Chanel - Google search interest, France12010040Figure 35: Chanel - Google search interest,Italy908070605030202010o Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20152016201720182015201620172018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 36: Chanel - Google search interest, US7020Figure 37: Chanel - Google search interest, Japan40302010100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 20180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GooglePradaPrada's average likes per post went back to negative growth in Q4 to Nov after a short period of y/y growth in Q3 18. From Figure 40 we could see the long term trend remains subdued with an average likes per post below 30k, which did not show much improvement. Note that Prada adopted a more active stance on social marketing since 2Q17 (see Figure 41), which is now normalising. Its m/m new follower growth has been consistently around 2% or below, demonstrating a rather slow pace at attracting new potential customers.Looking at Google Search interest, the 3MMA of Prada search in Italy is recovering from 2017 levels with an average of 7% but still below the average 2016 level.Figure 38: Prada - Instagram follower, m/m growthPrada followersm/m growthFigure 39: Prada - number of Instagram posts (monthly)Total posts videosSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 40: Prada - Interactions per Instagram postinteractions per post likes per postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Instagram. Interactions = likes + comments + video viewsSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 41: Prada - Instagram likes, y/y growth (quarterly)Source: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 42: Prada - Google search interest 3MMA growth25%Figure 44: Prada - Google search interest, Italy*Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 43: Prada - Google search interest, France60100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 45: Prada - Googlesearch interest, US86420 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 201720180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Google. *Prada foundation opened in 2015.Figure 46: Prada - Google search interest, Japan6050403020100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 20172018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleBurberryBurberry resumed its normal posting pace after Riccardo Tisci's arrival. Since September Burberry*s m/m new follower growth has clearly accelerated, to almost 3% in November / December. Total likes were up 18% y/y in Q4 to Nov, while the average likes per post saw a stronger growth at 53% (after an also strong 80% increase in Q3). Each of Burberry posts now generates around 40k likes, versus 25k earlier this year, which shows a steady increase in consumer interest.However its Google Search interest has only shown a small step-up (around 5% in the UK), therefore it might be too early to be excited about Burberry's turnaround.Figure 47: Burberry - Instagram follower, m/m growthBurberry followersm/m growthFigure 48: Burberry - number of Instagram posts (monthly)TotaI posts videosinteractions per post likes per postFigure 50: Burberry-lnstagram likes, y/y growth (quarterly)Source: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 49: Burberry -Interactions per Instagram postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Instagram. Interactions = likes + comments + video viewsSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 51: Burberry - Google search interest 3MMA growthSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 52: Burberry - Google search interest, UKFigure 53: Burberry - Google search interest, UKFigure 54: Burberry - Google search Interest, France707035100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Google0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 54: Burberry - Google search interest, US0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 55: Burberry - Google search interest, Japan601050 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 201720180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSaint LaurentSaint Laurent enjoys an accelerating m/m follower growth on a base of 10.5m, and its average likes per post have been consistently growing since three years (Figure 58). However the growth rate seems to be moderating in recent months with total likes up 15% in Q4 to Nov but with flat average likes per post in this period.Google Search trends show that consumer interest is highest in France but the 3MMA growth has been broadly flat since July 2018.Figure 56: YSL - Instagram follower, m/m growthSaint Laurent followersm/m growthFigure 57: YSL - number of Instagram posts (monthly)Source: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 58: YSL - Interactions per Instagram postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 59: YSL - Interactions per Instagram postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 60: YSL - Instagram likes, y/y growth (quarterly)interactions per post likes per postSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Instagram. Interactions = likes + comments+video viewsFigure 60: YSL - Google search interest 3MMA growth100%Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleFigure 61: YSL - Google search interest, France*Figure 62: YSL - Google search interest, Italy*250400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Google. *2017 spikes: YSL Biopic and YSL Museum exhibits.Figure 63: YSL - Google search interest, US35302520151050 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Google. *2017 spikes: YSL Biopic.Figure 64: YSL - Google search interest, Japan301200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 20180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 2016 2017 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleSource: UBS Evidence Lab, GoogleTable of ContentsINSTAGRAM COMP TABLE FOR LUXURY BRANDS (NOVEMBER 2018)3SOCIAL MEDIA & GOOGLESEARCH-EUROPEAN GROUPS5Gucci6Louis Vuitton8Dior10Chanel12Prada14Burberry16Saint Laurent18Balenciaga20Hermes22Hugo Boss24Ferragamo26Moncler28Bottega Veneta30Tod's32Rolex34Cartier36Omega38SOCIAL MEDIA & GOOGLESEARCH-U.S.GROUPS39Versace40Michael Kors42Jimmy Choo44Tiffany46Coach47Kate Spade48UBS EvidenceLabmethodology 50Appendix I: Methodologyandcorrelation 51METHODOLOGY-HOWTO PICKTHE WINNERS53HISTORICAL CORRELATION-SOCIAL MEDIA VERSUS SALES56BalenciagaBalenciaga's momentum continues to be exceptional on Instagram, with a m/m follower growth averaging 4.5% in 2018 that outpace all other luxury brands in our monitor. Meanwhile, the interactions metrics as shown in Figure 67 and Figure 68 demonstrate unparalleled brand heat that Balenciaga is enjoying under Demna Gvasalia's creative reign. Growth in average likes per post was up 296% in Q4 to Nov, reaching a level of 89k in November, only behind Rolex (138k), Gucci (130k) and Louis Vuitton (96k).Google Search trends in Europe, US and Japan validate this momentum with y/y growth of around 100%.Figure 65: Balenciaga - Instagram follower, m/m growth4%3%4m3m2m1m2%11% /uFeb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-18 18 18 18 1818 18 18 18 18 18Figure 66: Balenciaga - number of Instagram posts (monthly)Balenciagafollowers m/m growthSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramSource: UBS Evidence Lab, InstagramFigure 67: Balenciaga - Interactions per Instagram postS