第十章收益和风险CAPM.pptx

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第十章收益和风险CAPM.pptx

McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-0Chapter Outline10.1 Individual Securities10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance10.3 The Return and Risk for Portfolios10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets10.5 The Efficient Set for Many Securities10.6 Diversification: An Example10.7 Riskless Borrowing and Lending10.8 Market Equilibrium10.9 Relationship between Risk and Expected Return (CAPM)10.10 Summary and ConclusionsMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-110.1 Individual Securities The characteristics of individual securities that are of interest are the: Expected Return Variance and Standard Deviation Covariance and CorrelationMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-210.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance Consider the following two risky asset world. There is a 1/3 chance of each state of the economy and the only assets are a stock fund and a bond fund. Rate of ReturnScenarioProbabilityStock fundBond fundRecession33.3%-7%17%Normal 33.3%12%7%Boom33.3%28%-3%McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-310.2 Expected Return, Variance, and CovarianceStock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-4Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%11)(%)28(31%)12(31%)7(31)(SSrErEMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-5Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%7)(%)3(31%)7(31%)17(31)(BBrErEMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-6Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%24. 3%)7%11(2McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-7Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%01.%)12%11(2McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-8Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%89. 2%)28%11(2McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-9Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance%)89. 2%01. 0%24. 3(31%05. 2McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-10Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance0205. 0%3 .14McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-11Stock fundBond FundRate of Squared Rate of Squared Scenario Return Deviation Return Deviation Recession-7%3.24%17%1.00%Normal 12%0.01%7%0.00%Boom28%2.89%-3%1.00%Expected return11.00%7.00%Variance0.02050.0067Standard Deviation14.3%8.2%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosNote that stocks have a higher expected return than bonds and higher risk. Let us turn now to the risk-return tradeoff of a portfolio that is 50% invested in bonds and 50% invested in stocks.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-1210.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosRate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%The rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio: SSBBPrwrwr%)17(%50%)7(%50%5McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-13Rate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosThe rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio: %)7(%50%)12(%50%5 . 9SSBBPrwrwrMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-14Rate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosThe rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio: %)3(%50%)28(%50%5 .12SSBBPrwrwrMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-15Rate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosThe expected rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the expected returns on the securities in the portfolio. %)7(%50%)11(%50%9)()()(SSBBPrEwrEwrEMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-16Rate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosThe variance of the rate of return on the two risky assets portfolio is BSSSBB2SS2BB2P)(w2(w)(w)(wwhere BS is the correlation coefficient between the returns on the stock and bond funds.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-17Rate of ReturnScenarioStock fundBond fundPortfoliosquared deviationRecession-7%17%5.0%0.160%Normal 12%7%9.5%0.003%Boom28%-3%12.5%0.123%Expected return11.00%7.00%9.0%Variance0.02050.00670.0010Standard Deviation14.31%8.16%3.08%10.3 The Return and Risk for PortfoliosObserve the decrease in risk that diversification offers.An equally weighted portfolio (50% in stocks and 50% in bonds) has less risk than stocks or bonds held in isolation.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-18Portfolo Risk and Return Combinations5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%Portfolio Risk (standard deviation)Portfolio Return% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50.00%3.08%9.00%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0%10.4 The Efficient Set for Two AssetsWe can consider other portfolio weights besides 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds 100% bonds100% stocksMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-19Portfolo Risk and Return Combinations5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%Portfolio Risk (standard deviation)Portfolio Return10.4 The Efficient Set for Two AssetsWe can consider other portfolio weights besides 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds 100% bonds100% stocks% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0%McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10-20Portfolo Risk and Return Combinations5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%Portfolio Risk (standard deviation)Portfolio Return% in stocks Risk Return0%8.2%7.0%5%7.0%7.2%10%5.9%7.4%15%4.8%7.6%20%3.7%7.8%25%2.6%8.0%30%1.4%8.2%35%0.4%8.4%40%0.9%8.6%45%2.0%8.8%50%3.1%9.0%55%4.2%9.2%60%5.3%9.4%65%6.4%9.6%70%7.6%9.8%75%8.7%10.0%80%9.8%10.2%85%10.9%10.4%90%12.1%10.6%95%13.2%10.8%100%14.3%11.0%10.4 The Efficient Set

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