全球流动性在收紧吗.docx

流动性收紧下的资产价格上证综指再度收跌，十年期国债收益率震荡上行，昨日国内证券市场迎来股债双杀。从2月4日国内股票市场和债券市场的走势表现来看，股票方面，上证综指小幅低开，上午 震荡走低表现偏弱，午后有所回升但全日仍旧收跌。截至收盘A股三大指数全数收跌，上 证综指收跌0.44%报3501.82点，深成指收跌0.84%报15105.94点，创业板指收跌 0.72%报3200.55点。债券方面，10年期国债收益率上午窄幅震荡，午后震荡上行，收益率 全日上行约3BP至3.24%。图2： 2月4日十年期国债活跃全200016.旧当日走势（）图2： 2月4日十年期国债活跃全200016.旧当日走势（）200016120附息国债163.2400 +3.00BP 3.2400,3.20253.25853.24553.23253.2195320653.193508:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 19:59资料来源：Wind近期受到央行流动性操作谨慎预期的影响，国内债券市场迎来了连续调整。而从全球 视角来看，在经历了去年疫情期间美联储大规模放水以后，年初以来美债收益率上行，美 元指数反弹，一定程度上也是受到了美联储货币政策宽松收紧预期的影响。对于国内债市 而言，近期央行接连通过公开市场操作实现资金的净回笼，这也引发了市场对于央行流动 性操作趋于谨慎的预期，国内债券市场迎来了连续调整。而从全球的视角而言，在经历了 去年疫情期间美联储大规模放水以后，去年12月份美联储议息会议关于QE规模缩减情 况的讨论，同样也是年初以来美债收益率上行和美元指数反弹的重要影响因素。截至2月 3 H, 10年期美债收益率相较去年年末上行约22BPS至1.15%,美元指数上涨约1.3%至 钧达股份（7.72%）和无锡银行（6.71%）领涨，天铁股份（12.81%）、隆利科技（-10.80%） 和中国核建（-10.05%）领跌。可转债市场周观点近期市场持续地处于高波动的状态，市场预期也较为紊乱，特别近期涨幅较大的板块 在上周调整较多。转债市场也随之下跌，指数全年收益已经跌入负值。市场近期的波动主 要受到流动性预期的扰动，我们判断进入2月流动性紧张状况会有所缓解，狭义流动性更 多会在短期冲击市场，但并不改变趋势，我们认为应该继续围绕主线做文章，进行一定的 均衡配置，仍旧回到业绩弹性主线上。随着年报的披露，局部之前缺乏关注的板块有望迎 来配置资金。传统的主线仍旧聚焦在顺周期方向，顺周期的行情已经步入下半场，单纯的价格上行 逻辑并缺乏够，建议向量价齐升逻辑的个券聚焦，重申我们重点关注的方向是有色、能化、 农产品，其余局部行业的标的暂时并不做出推荐。绝对收益策略的角度那么可以逐步地更为积极，随着顺周期主线标的的纷纷提前赎回， 剩余仓位可以向此类方向迁移。虽然有诸多逻辑来“抄底”，但我们认为正股视角和债性配 置视角为当前值得关注的选择。单纯的低价并非参与的原因。我们建议重点关注TMT、高 端制造业方向下的成长标的。从转债的视角看，均衡配置可以关注“腰部”标的。这些标的价格大致位于105-125 元附近，溢价率在1040%区间左右，过去看似尴尬，但是正是由于正股有一定看点，这 类标的价格和估值难以跌入较低水平，但随着板块均衡也可能率先发力。高弹性组合建议重点关注赣锋转2、韦尔（洁美）转债、鸿路转债、利尔转债、火炬 转债、隆20转债、太阳转债、福20转债、长海转债、恩捷转债。稳健弹性组合建议关注无锡转债、紫金转债、精测（聚飞）转债、中矿转债、金能转 债、洪城转债、财通转债、新凤（恒逸）转债、星宇（双环）转债、欧派转债。风险因素市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预 期波动。I股票市场表1:市场概况代码简称收盘价日变化（）成交额（亿）成交额同比变化（）000001.SH上证指数3,501.86-0.444187.431.21399001.SZ深证成指15,105.94-0.845237.55-3.01399300.SZ沪深3005,473.95-0.21399005.SZ中小板指10,170.19-0.90-0.72399006.SZ仓 ij 业板指3,200.55代码简称收盘价日变化（ ） 成交额（亿）成交额同比变化（）000016.SH 上证 503,801.620.69资料来源：Wind,表2：行业涨跌幅榜每日涨幅前五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅前五板块日涨跌幅（）食品饮料2.24有色金属-3.93银行0.44传媒-3.41煤炭-0.27消费者服务-2.34石油石化-0.31计算机-2.08非银行金融-0.35建筑-1.99资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部表3：概念板块涨跌幅榜每日涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（%）连板2.62手机外壳-5.90IGBT2.28陆股通日减仓前二十-5.74首板1.19车联网-5.62打板1.18新能源整车-5.50炭黑1.01供应链金融-5.35资料来源：Wind,I转债市场表4：可转债市场名称收盘价日变化（）中证转债指数356.28-1.40等权可转债指数1,344.91-2.02可转债预案指数1,149.55-1.49平均平价98.13-2.34平均转债价格121.90-2.29资料来源：Wind,表5：可转债个名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110031 .SH航信转债106.00-0.082.15110033.SH国贸转债106.12-0.992.77110034.SH九州转债108.72-2.281.48110038.SH济川转债101.11-0.741.10110041 .SH蒙电转债101.590.584.98110043.SH无锡转债119.581.5924.73110044.SH广电转债197.13-2.968.67110045.SH海澜转债96.67-0.342.36113009.SH广汽转债106.08-0.244.57113011.SH光大转债119.04-2.6781.54113012.SH骆驼转债110.361.122.15名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113013.SH国君转债110.25-3.2614.93113014.SH林洋转债91.37-1.8123.99113016.SH小康转债100.24-2.3326.26113017.SH吉视转债89.77-0.780.94113502.SH嘉澳转债94.52-1.070.22113504.SH艾华转债117.69-4.083.71113505.SH杭电转债96.74-1.701.68113508.SH新凤转债129.220.3320.34113509.SH新泉转债224.04-2.934.89113516.SH苏农转债101.90-1.466.14123002.SZ国祯转债100.35-2.190.65123004.SZ铁汉转债94.45-0.752.03123007.SZ道氏转债108.720.677.50123010.SZ博世转债92.38-2.751.79123011.SZ德尔转债89.60-1.670.23123012.SZ万顺转债112.20-0.638.34123013.SZ横河转债422.00-2.3162.24123014.SZ凯发转债121.48-0.9911.28123015.SZ蓝盾转债247.61-2.47155.65127003.SZ海印转债99.99-0.310.87127004.SZ模塑转债169.38-0.5423.18127005.SZ长证转债117.30-4.6321.14127006.SZ敖东转债98.89-0.654.50127007.SZ湖广转债95.85-0.051.32128010.SZ蔚蓝转债115.52-6.0821.71128012.SZ辉丰转债100.920.000.00128013.SZ洪涛转债96.08-0.510.90128014.SZ永东转债99.68-0.540.53128015.SZ久其转债94.00-0.321.71128017.SZ金禾转债219.10-3.0513.86128018.SZ时达转债98.83-0.460.96128021 .SZ兄弟转债103.00-1.060.88128022.SZ众信转债92.02-0.811.06128023.SZ亚太转债93.00-0.880.52128025.SZ特一转债93.75-0.480.14128026.SZ众兴转债92.87-1.701.51128028.SZ赣锋转债297.31-5.11112.17128029.SZ太阳转债225.001.5856.49128030.SZ天康转债265.560.5910.83128032.SZ双环转债107.80-0.784.12128033.SZ迪龙转债94.53-0.060.50128034.SZ江银转债102.40-0.971.33128035.SZ大族转债112.600.364.60128036.SZ金农转债128.40-3.4610.92128037.SZ岩土转债90.90-2.050.36名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128039.SZ三力转债99.20-0.801.24128040.SZ华通转债103.27-2.030.86128041.SZ盛路转债279.30-5.9657.49128042.SZ凯中转债94.02-1.390.34128044.SZ岭南转债83.80-1.531.63128046.SZ利尔转债156.804.7361.06128048.SZ张行转债107.70-0.2812.50113519.SH长久转债90.57-0.491.30110047.SH山鹰转债102.32-0.736.91128049.SZ华源转债91.20-0.510.65123017.SZ寒锐转债164.00-8.3845.37127008.SZ特发转债133.50-6.6411.26128050.SZ钧达转债125.214.7052.15110048.SH福能转债107.29-2.024.10113524.SH奇精转债92.89-1.860.26128051 .SZ光华转债99.91-1.441.17113525.SH台华转债95.50-2.540.76128052.SZ凯龙转债200.49-13.6933.63123018.SZ溢利转债190.00-0.5228.49113526.SH联泰转债119.37-2.230.12113527.SH维格转债77.96-2.460.46128053.SZ尚荣转债114.32-5.905.32113021.SH中信转债105.10-0.247.81113528.SH长城转债90.91-0.890.11128056.SZ今飞转债97.01-2.511.24110051.SH中天转债109.14-2.0611.74110052.SH贵广转债95.00-1.031.85128057.SZ博彦转债104.90-2.870.65110053.SH苏银转债107.20-0.4313.72127011.SZ中鼎转2109.00-4.392.23110055.SH伊力转债146.711.5637.34123022.SZ长信转债127.00-1.442.94110056.SH亨通转债95.42-2.702.01123023.SZ迪森转债85.03-1.210.55123024.SZ岱勒转债96.00-3.080.95113530.SH大丰转债90.54-1.730.46123025.SZ精测转债120.50-6.5910.57113532.SH海环转债93.740.000.55128063.SZ未来转债95.20-0.060.40128062.SZ亚药转债67.88-0.463.57113024.SH核建转债100.27-2.352.58127012.SZ招路转债101.00-1.946.50110057.SH现代转债101.70-0.841.13113534.SH鼎胜转债85.71-1.664.25113025.SH明泰转债137.20-1.8210.78名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128064.SZ司尔转债100.58-1.470.64113026.SH核能转债101.46-1.308.30110058.SH永鼎转债86.32-2.1511.18128065.SZ雅化转债225.52-5.4341.39128066.SZ亚泰转债87.10-1.260.32127013.SZ创维转债92.02-1.692.51113535.SH大业转债89.63-0.820.21113536.SH三星转债102.00-1.960.25123027.SZ蓝晓转债148.05-4.1313.21113537.SH文灿转债124.13-0.704.26113027.SH华锌转债99.80-2.240.63128069.SZ华森转债91.12-0.640.60123028.SZ清水转债80.50-1.690.61128070.SZ智能转债96.00-1.765.76113541.SH荣晟转债105.31-3.480.78113542.SH好客转债109.51-2.541.63113543.SH欧派转债232.09-1.5017.95123029.SZ英科转债2631.50-6.68109.34128073.SZ哈尔转债93.00-1.591.34123030.SZ九洲转债138.05-8.8274.98128071 .SZ合兴转债103.20-0.830.87128072.SZ翔鹭转债89.16-2.410.28123031.SZ晶瑞转债218.320.3813.61128074.SZ游族转债92.26-0.602.08128075.SZ远东转债110.21-1.691.50113545.SH金能转债198.92-1.5434.17128076.SZ金轮转债85.91-1.650.29128078.SZ太极转债109.30-3.703.71110059.SH浦发转债101.20-0.2231.91113546.SH迪贝转债89.02-2.060.36127014.SZ北方转债97.31-1.000.74128079.SZ英联转债112.360.355.44113548.SH石英转债127.79-1.955.66123033.SZ金力转债109.11-4.472.24110060.SH天路转债100.80-0.020.33123034.SZ通光转债173.29-2.7149.74110061 .SH川投转债119.60-2.815.48123035.SZ利德转债106.54-0.891.71113549.SH白电转债91.25-0.710.71113550.SH常汽转债115.07-2.861.25128081.SZ海亮转债91.85-1.874.48110062.SH烽火转债100.83-1.172.80128083.SZ新北转债99.50-3.401.11110063.SH鹰19转债102.52-0.332.02128082.SZ华锋转债88.00-1.490.47名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113029.SH明阳转债164.971.0833.32128085.SZ鸿达转债81.00-3.4326.55113557.SH森特转债91.74-0.070.71113559.SH永创转债103.20-1.231.31110065.SH淮矿转债110.93-3.199.49110064.SH建工转债93.90-0.143.84128087.SZ孚日转债81.00-2.940.75128091 .SZ新天转债108.30-2.882.32113030.SH东风转债101.36-0.683.16128093.SZ百川转债93.70-3.761.98123038.SZ联得转债107.80-1.963.58123039.SZ开润转债99.15-0.930.17128090.SZ汽模转299.55-3.244.08127015.SZ希望转债124.09-1.4219.47113561 .SH正裕转债94.72-1.570.20123042.SZ银河转债121.50-2.0243.98128094.SZ星帅转债108.71-1.692.04113563.SH柳药转债100.71-1.450.30128095.SZ恩捷转债210.70-0.619.40113565.SH宏辉转债101.29-2.976.03113564.SH天目转债110.39-1.441.81128096.SZ奥瑞转债118.80-0.670.98128097.SZ奥佳转债138.002.2219.34123043.SZ正元转债114.01-1.2961.12113566.SH翔港转债94.300.614.15110066.SH盛屯转债153.05-6.8143.15113568.SH新春转债88.94-2.710.32113567.SH君禾转债96.00-1.550.15113569.SH科达转债80.79-2.720.76113570.SH百达转债90.55-2.010.11128100.SZ搜特转债74.95-0.751.78110067.SH华安转债103.550.057.98113572.SH三祥转债106.25-1.600.47123044.SZ红相转债109.50-1.683.24123045.SZ雷迪转债98.25-2.021.96128101.SZ联创转债101.36-2.072.55110068.SH龙净转债94.97-3.091.75123046.SZ天铁转债141.00-10.5833.16123047.SZ久吾转债101.60-3.792.01128103.SZ同德转债215.0014.61414.36113033.SH利群转债97.88-0.781.38113574.SH华体转债94.53-1.870.30113575.SH东时转债138.030.3649.18113034.SH滨化转债106.50-5.985.52113576.SH起步转债89.90-0.531.33名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110069.SH瀚蓝转债124.01-0.790.57128106.SZ华统转债114.200.000.17123048.SZ应急转债99.00-3.884.30123049.SZ维尔转债95.50-3.442.31128105.SZ长集转债93.00-2.951.31127016.SZ鲁泰转债93.110.271.02113577.SH春秋转债124.33-2.456.22110070.SH凌钢转债90.130.000.48123050.SZ聚飞转债109.40-3.094.14113578.SH全筑转债89.83-0.601.17113580.SH康隆转债229.06-4.9151.81113573.SH纵横转债94.29-0.850.37113579.SH健友转债105.59-1.310.32128107.SZ交科转债103.00-0.781.60128108.SZ蓝帆转债141.10-4.1448.76113583.SH益丰转债136.67-1.6613.65128109.SZ楚江转债102.70-1.1510.74113582.SH火炬转债264.73-2.8818.63113584.SH家悦转债98.51-2.380.28123051 .SZ今天转债100.69-1.920.71123053.SZ宝通转债97.21-2.210.59127017.SZ万青转债105.86-0.275.54123052.SZ飞鹿转债105.37-2.715.43123054.SZ思特转债87.11-1.300.30128111.SZ中矿转债197.99-7.9179.32113585.SH寿仙转债135.550.421.85128110.SZ永兴转债264.50-7.6335.91123055.SZ晨光转债128.10-2.9511.09128112.SZ歌尔转2142.30-1.5244.15113588.SH润达转债101.19-2.380.54113587.SH泛微转债141.66-6.8110.59128114.SZ正邦转债109.56-2.896.20128113.SZ比音转债111.92-2.341.05128115.SZ巨星转债293.01-1.8524.40113589.SH天创转债78.52-0.540.34128117.SZ道恩转债96.42-3.761.48113591 .SH胜达转债94.99-2.571.51123056.SZ雪榕转债95.67-3.661.29128116.SZ瑞达转债91.85-1.140.83123057.SZ美联转债93.62-2.331.49113590.SH海容转债172.782.2023.63110071 .SH湖盐转债93.30-0.011.21113592.SH安20转债231.700.7340.52127018.SZ本钢转债74.78-1.307.22128118.SZ瀛通转债85.93-0.430.60名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113036.SH宁建转债93.00-1.480.37128119.SZ龙大转债127.34-3.655.58128121.SZ宏川转债115.001.239.12123058.SZ欣旺转债138.30-2.524.64127019.SZ国城转债76.57-2.210.72113593.SH沪工转债107.460.333.65123059.SZ银信转债91.19-4.191.53127020.SZ中金转债105.44-1.355.54123060.SZ苏试转债114.00-2.470.56123062.SZ三超转债106.60-2.1036.46128120.SZ联诚转债89.89-2.600.30128122.SZ兴森转债97.300.171.68113037.SH紫银转债100.19-0.804.84123061 .SZ航新转债101.200.205.20113595.SH花王转债84.55-1.300.84128123.SZ国光转债99.10-0.410.10123063.SZ大禹转债98.24-2.351.09128124.SZ科华转债95.01-2.961.29110073.SH国投转债105.90-0.8113.54113596.SH城地转债81.12-2.271.49128125.SZ华阳转债98.23-3.321.68113597.SH佳力转债90.63-0.090.23113598.SH法兰转债120.771.451.77113594.SH淳中转债97.400.430.17127021 .SZ特发转292.80-1.490.63113599.SH嘉友转债92.80-3.352.39113038.SH隆20转债208.072.35215.44128126.SZ赣锋转2206.40-4.4486.57128127.SZ文科转债86.04-1.150.65113600.SH新星转债83.93-1.841.16110072.SH广汇转债71.42-1.036.88113601.SH塞力转债90.33-2.460.81128128.SZ齐翔转296.09-1.9322.11113039.SH嘉泽转债93.17-2.7212.08128129.SZ青农转债99.50-1.577.40128130.SZ景兴转债110.00-3.345.29110074.SH精达转债88.60-2.561.88113602.SH景20转债104.99-1.113.91123064.SZ万孚转债117.95-1.900.77123065.SZ宝莱转债96.00-2.243.93128131.SZ崇达转294.37-2.411.73123066.SZ赛意转债120.45-1.602.87123067.SZ斯莱转债105.54-3.271.33128132.SZ交建转债89.00-0.010.88128133.SZ奇正转债103.81-0.381.6591.1129o名称茴称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113603.SH东缆转债121.02-2.802.69128134.SZ鸿路转债124.00-4.3915.48110075.SH南航转债119.30-2.1614.46123068.SZ弘信转债96.80-2.220.69123069.SZ金诺转债94.501.414.84123070.SZ鹏辉转债106.17-3.596.57123072.SZ乐歌转债118.89-1.9924.12113605.SH大参转债130.23-1.394.45113040.SH星宇转债145.16-3.456.64127022.SZ恒逸转债136.70-3.0512.73123073.SZ同和转债100.13-1.071.51123074.SZ隆利转债121.77-7.3330.55113604.SH多伦转债89.97-3.940.75128135.SZ洽洽转债129.80-0.927.79127023.SZ华菱转2103.65-1.292.01113606.SH荣泰转债98.67-0.601.60123075.SZ贝斯转债92.50-3.142.92110076.SH华海转债112.55-0.921.13123071 .SZ天能转债92.52-2.091.36113041.SH紫金转债163.32-3.4028.80113607.SH伟20转债105.13-0.3612.94113608.SH威派转债94.00-1.860.92128137.SZ洁美转债118.00-3.686.17127024.SZ盈峰转债112.97-0.474.90127025.SZ冀东转债107.000.004.22128136.SZ立讯转债118.73-3.3120.60123076.SZ强力转债85.80-2.062.45123077.SZ汉得转债86.90-3.042.94123078.SZ飞凯转债95.81-3.861.29110077.SH洪城转债101.93-0.683.65123080.SZ海波转债91.00-2.840.95123081 .SZ精研转债96.99-3.011.40113610.SH灵康转债92.58-0.630.60113611.SH福20转债147.15-2.869.63113609.SH永安转债85.03-1.101.93128138.SZ侨银转债102.30-0.870.54128139.SZ祥鑫转债91.33-1.800.90123079.SZ运达转债114.100.234.17123082.SZ北陆转债99.14-1.051.39123085.SZ万顺转289.00-2.735.16113043.SH财通转