2021年全球能源评论.docx

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYIEA association countries:BrazilChina India Indonesia MoroccoSingapore South Africa ThailandThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland ItalyJapan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEASource: IEA. All rights reserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: ieaRate of change of energy demand in 2020, and 2021 energy demand relative to 2019 levels, by region5%China0%-5%Middle EastXfricaSouthea st AsiaBrazil；ea-n UnionJapan：nite i StatesIndia、Russia World-10%-6%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2021/2019<-Partial recovery | Full recovery ->IEA. All rights reserved.Note: Bubble size is relative to regional primary energy demand in 2021.Most emerging market and developing economies also experienced a drop in energy demand in 2020, albeit less than in advanced economies. Demand declined 5% in India, around 3% in Southeast Asia, 2% in the Middle East and 1.5% across Africa.China was a notable exception, the only major economy to experience both an increase in economic output and in energy demand in 2020. While restrictions to control the outbreak of Covid-19 depressed demand in the first quarter, the economy began to recover from April. For the remainder of the year, energy demand grew by 6% on average from pre-Covid-19 levels. Despite the impressive growth of renewables, increasing electricity demand led to an all-time high coal burn in December 2020.Economic activity in China is set to further accelerate in 2021, and energy demand is expected to grow by 6%, with demand in 2021 almost 8% higher than in 2019, thus cementing China's position as the economy least impacted by Covid-19.wsaj sr6一-<<山-India's steep economic slide in 2020 pushed oil demand down by more than 8%, while coal demand for power generation and industry fell by 5% and 11%, respectively. India5s CO2 emissions were more than 40% lower in April 2020 than they were a year earlier, making it the steepest monthly decline in emissions seen in any part of the world last year. But with India's economy expected to bounce back strongly in 2021, energy demand is set to rebound by 7%, pushing demand 2% above 2019 levels. Coal demand is expected to increase by almost 9%, contributing the most to rebounding demand, as electricity demand recovers.C02 emissionsGlobal 002 emissions declined by 5.8% in 2020, or almost 2 Gt C02-the largest ever decline and almost five times greater than the 2009 decline that followed the global financial crisis. C02 emissions fell further than energy demand in 2020 owing to the pandemic hitting demand for oil and coal harder than other energy sources while renewables increased. Despite the decline in 2020, global energy- related CO2 emissions remained at 31.5 Gt, which contributed to CO2 reaching its highest ever average annual concentration in the atmosphere of 412.5 parts per million in 2020 - around 50% higher than when the industrial revolution began.In 2021 global energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to rebound and grow by 4.8% as demand for coal, oil and gas rebounds with the economy. The increase of over 1 500 Mt CO2 would be the largest single increase since the carbonintensive economic recovery from the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, it leaves global emissions in 2021 around 400 Mt CO2, or 1.2%, below the 2019 peak.Global CO2 emissions rebound by nearly 5% in 2021, approaching the 2018-2019 peak.Global energy-related CO2 emissions, 1990-2021, and change in CO2 emissions by fuel, 1990-202140zoo53020101990199520002005201020152021 Coal Oil GasIEA. All rights reserved.CO2 emissions by fuelDespite global economic activity rising above 2019 levels in 2021 and global energy demand rebounding above 2019 levels, we do not anticipate a full return of CO2 emissions to pre-crisis levels. Even with an increase in CO2 emissions from oil of over 650 Mt CO2 in 2021, oil-related emissions are expected to recover only around half of the 2020 drop and thus should remain 500 Mt CO2 below 2019 levels. The likely partial recovery is entirely due to the continued impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions on transport activity in 2021. CO2 emissions from international aviation are set to remain 200 Mt CO2 (or one- third) below pre-pandemic levels in 2021, while emissions from road transport and domestic aviation are on track to be close to 350 Mt CO2 (or 5%) below 2019 levelsin 2021. A full recovery of global transport activity would push oil-related emissions above 2019 levels and increase global CO2 emissions by over 1.5%, well above 2019 levels.Global coal use is anticipated to rebound in 2021 and drive an increase in global CO2 emissions of around 640 Mt CO2. This would push emissions from coal to 14.8 Gt CO2： 0.4% above 2019 levels and only 350 Mt CO2 short of the global high in coal-related CO2 emissions of 2014. The power sector accounted for less than 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020, but it accounts for 80% of the rebound, largely due to rapidly increasing coal-fired generation in Asia.CO2 emissions from natural gas combustion are expected to increase by more than 215 Mt CO2 in 2021 to reach an all-time high of 7.35 Gt CO2, 22% of global CO2 emissions. Gas use in buildings and industry accounts for much of the trend, with demand in public and commercial buildings seeing the greatest drop in demand in 2020 but the biggest anticipated recovery in 2021.CO2 emissions by regionEmerging markets and developing economies now account for more than two- thirds of global CO2 emissions, while emissions in advanced economies are in a structural decline, despite an anticipated 4% rebound in 2021.China's emissions are likely to increase by around 500 Mt CO2- With energy demand and emissions already growing in 2020, in 2021 CO2 emissions in China should be 6%, or almost 600 Mt CO2, above 2019 levels. All fossil fuels should contribute to higher CO2 emissions in China in 2021, but coal is expected to dominate, contributing 70% to the increase, predominantly due to greater coal use in the power sector. Despite China's rapid growth in generation from renewables, output from coal-fired power plants has increased by 330 TWh, or nearly 7%, between 2019 and 2021.wsaj sr6一-<<山-Economic recovery in India in 2021 is set to push emissions almost 200 Mt higher than 2020, leaving emissions 1.4% (or 30 Mt) above 2019 levels. A rebound in coal demand above 2019 levels drove the emissions increase in India, with the expected rise in coal-fired electricity generation in 2021 likely to be three times greater than the increase in generation from renewables. CO2 emissions in India are now broadly on par with emissions in the European Union at 2.35 Gt, although they remain two-thirds lower on a per capita basis and 60% below the global average.In the United States, C02 emissions in 2021 are expected to rebound by more than 200 Mt CO2 to 4.46 Gt CO2, yet remain 5.6% below 2019 levels and 21% below 2005 levels. CO2 emissions from coal are expected to be almost 12% below 2019 as coal use for electricity generation is likely to recover only 40% of the ground lost to renewables and natural gas in 2020. Oil use, the biggest contributor to CO2 emissions in the United States, should remain almost 6% below 2019 levels as transport activity remains curtailed across 2021.CO2 emissions are likely to rebound less in the European Union, as the economic outlook is dimmer than in other parts of the world. The expected increase of 80 Mt CO2 in 2021 w川 reverse only one-third of 2020,s drop. EU emissions in 2021 should stand at 2.4 Gt. Most of the 90 Mt CO2 drop in power sector emissions in 2020 will endure through 2021, with a slight anticipated increase in coal and gas- fired generation in 2021 reversing only 10% of the 2020 drop. The share of coal in electricity generation in the European Union has declined almost three- percentage points from 2019 to 2021, to less than 14%.CO2 emissions from advanced economies have fallen by 1.8 Gt CO2 since 2000, and their share in global emissions has declined by twenty percentage points to less than one-third of the global total.wsaj sr6一-<<山-OilOil demand in 2020 saw its biggest ever annual declineMeasures to restrain the spread of Covid-19 and the ensuing recession triggered an estimated 8.5 mb/d (8.8%) drop in oil demand in 2020 - the largest ever decline in both absolute and relative terms. The transport sector, responsible for around 60% of total oil demand, was severely impacted by mobility restrictions in 2020. Jet fuel and kerosene demand dropped by 3.2 mb/d (41%), with air passenger traffic 66% below 2019 levels, and gasoline demand declined by over 3 mb/d (12%). Fuel oil demand dropped by 0.5 mb/d (8%) as bunker fuel demand declined along with international trade. Continued freight transport activity mitigated the decline in gasoil demand to 1.8 mb/d (6%), and LPG/ethane and naphtha demand was roughly unchanged as petrochemical feedstocks benefited from increased sales of packaging, hygiene and medical equipment.Oil demand's rebound in 2021 is softened by a sluggish aviation sectorThe improving economic environment will support a rebound in global oil demand of 5.4 mb/d, or 6% above 2020 levels. Despite the rebound, demand across 2021 is expected to remain 3.2% below 2019 levels.Covid-related restrictions on mobility continue to suppress oil demand for transport in the first half of the year, even if the impact is much less than a year earlier. Demand will rise progressively in the second half of 2021, as vaccination campaigns ramp up and travel returns. Nonetheless, oil demand is not projected to reach pre-crisis levels with demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 expected to be 1.4 mb/d lower than pre-crisis levels. International aviation's oil use is the slowest area to rebound and is expected to be 20% below 2019 levels even in December 2021. Excluding international aviation, oil demand is expected to return to 2019 levels in the last months of 2021.Change in quarterly oil demand in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 levels-12-12-16-2020212020IQ 2Q 3Q 4QIQ 2Q 3Q 4Q4%0% Other USA-4% EUIndia-8% China-12% Net change-16%(right axis)-20%IEA. All rights reserved.Note: Quarterly oil demand data in this figure include biofuels blended with oil products. Source: IEA OMR March 2021.China is the only major economy where oil demand in 2020 was above 2019 levels, and demand in 2021 is expected to grow further to almost 9% above 2019 levels. Oil demand in China fell 1.3 mb/d in Q1 of 2020 as the virus hit China and mobility was curtailed; however, removal of restrictions and a sharp economic rebound through the rest of the year saw oil demand return to growth. Without the increase in demand in China in 2021, global demand would be an additional 1 mb/d, or a further one percentage point, below 2019 levels.Oil demand in the United States is expected to remain around 0.8 mb/d below 2019 levels, mainly as a result of the continued impact of the pandemic-related restrictions during early 2021. Demand in the European Union remains 0.4 mb/d below 2019 levels, with continued lockdowns expected to weigh heavily on 2021 annual totals. In India, after further lockdowns in the first half of the year, rapid demand growth in the second half of the year is likely to push 2021 oil demand back on par with 2019 levels.Gasoline demand is set to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2021 to reach 25.4 mb/d, even if it will remain 1.2 mb/d below pre-Covid levels. Demand is set to be 2 mb/d below 2019 levels during the first half of 2021 and, while demand should rise in the second half as restrictions are eased, it is expected to remain around 500 kb/d below pre-Covid levels. Behavioural changes from the Covid crisis, such as increased teleworking or greater use of bicycles in cities, outweigh greater preference for private cars vs. public transport in certain regions.Page|1560%Road transport activity in 2021 relative to 2020, in selected advanced economies.，United StatesCanada-60%30%0%-30%JanuaryFebruaryMarch United Kingdom EU JapanKorea AustraliaNew ZealandIEA. All rights reserved.Source: IEA analysis based on data from Apple Mobility.Diesel demand is set to rebound by 1.5 mb/d to 28.5 mb/d in 2021 and should remain 0.3 mb/d below 2019 levels. Diesel is less impacted by restrictions on mobility because trucks have operated at near-normal levels as demand continues for goods held up during the pandemic. New Covid restriction measures implemented in 2021 are not anticipated to restrict manufacturing and the transportation of industrial goods.Jet fuel and kerosene demand has been the oil product most affected during the pandemic. Air traffic is expected to recover slowly in the first half of 2021 and pick up in the second half when vulnerable populations in the developed world have been vaccinated. Pent up demand could push revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) up by 50% y-o-y. In this case, we expect total jet fuel and kerosene demand to increase by 0.8 mb/d on 2020 levels in 2021, a rebound of 17%. Despite this growth, demand would still remain 30% below 2019 levels.Petrochemical feedstock w川 be the only oil sector to surpass pre-crisis levels with plastics production driven by increased needs for packaging and personal protective equipment. We expect LPG, ethane and naphtha demand to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2021 (4%).Fuel oil demand will increase by nearly 0.3 mb/d in 2021 (4.5%) as it is expected to benefits from a rebound in bunker fuel demand and higher industrial activity. Most of the growth will be for the new,