利用气候经济模型促进可持续经济发展.docx

CONTENTSExecutive Summary4Acronyms6Introduction7I. Background8Key terms and concepts8Rationale for climate-resilient economic development9The role of climate economic modelling for adaptation mainstreaming14Framework for integrating the climate economic modelling results in development processes16Entry points16Enabling factors 17Linking the entry points with the enabling factors19Guidance on utilizing the entry points for integrating climate economic modelling results211. Planning212. Budgeting and financing243. Implementation264. Monitoring, evaluation,and learning (MEL)27V. Guidance on utilizing the enabling factors for integrating economic modelling results291. Leadership29Capacities 292. Information and communications303. Institutional arrangements314. Stakeholder engagement and partnership325. Awareness and motivations336. Digital technologies347. Financial resources34VI. Conclusion and Outlook35CNCD 8fragility, and the importance of taking an integrated approach to development to deal with multiple (interconnected) crisis simultaneously (e.g., climate, biodiversity, pandemic).> Effectiveness. Improved coordination and policy coherence resulting from adaptation mainstreaming should lead to more sustainable, effective, and efficient processes (mobilization and use of resources) and improved development impacts.Globally, scientists and policy makers recognize the need to address the economic development and climate change nexus for sustainable development ("the new climate economy5). Interest in the economics of climate change has steadily increased in the last 20 years both on the scientific and policy agendas.> Scientific and economic development community. The “Stern review on the economics of climate change“ released by economist Nicholas Stem in 2006 for the UK government is a landmark study - though not the first report on the topic. In 2014, the world's leading climate scientists, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, concluded that globally climate change will impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services across all sectors of the economy leading to reduced economic growth but that uncertainties remain on the magnitude of the effects (Arent ct al. 2014). In parallel, over the past decades, several global initiatives, such as the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, have researched the economic impacts of climate change with support from development partners, in particular the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). When it comes to climate adaptation, the attention has progressively evolved from calculating the economic costs of inaction, to costing climate adaptation actions and climate adaptation more broadly (co-benefits, co-costs, barriers, etc.), and to looking at economic instruments to incentivize adaptation.Policy community. In 2015, the economic development-climate change nexus was at the center of two important policy agendas: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. Countries agreed on a set of 17 global goals to achieve sustainable development by the year 2030. SDG8 focuses on decent work and economic growth and aims to promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work. It comprises of 12 targets with a focus on themes such as economic productivity, employment and decent work, labour rights, sustainable tourism, access to banking, insurance and financial services, and trade. SDG13 aims to take urgent action on climate change and its impacts. One of the five targets under SDG13 focuses on the need to "integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning”. At the core of this framework for sustainable development is the recognition that the global goals, and related targets, are interconnected: success in achieving a specific goal is a means to achieving the other goals. In addition, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the global response to climate change, agreed on a global goal on adaptation under the Paris Agreement. This goal aims to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience and to reduce vulnerability, with a view to contributing to sustainabledevelopment. A part of the Paris Agreement, parties acknowledged the need to integrate adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies and actions.National climate adaptation planning processes provide an opening for integrating climate risk into economic development policy and decisionmaking. The Paris Agreement requires all Parties to submit, and regularly update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are pledges countries make to limit global temperature increase and, as appropriate, adapt to climate change (Hammill, et al. 2019). As mentioned previously, the Paris Agreement also requires Parties on a voluntary basis to integrate adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies and actions, where appropriate, including through their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).NAPs aim to support a different way of doing climate adaptation by putting in place the systems and capacities needed to make adaptation a standard, ongoing practice as part of a country's development decision maldng. Therefore, mainstreaming adaptation into development planning and budgeting is a key objective of the NAP process. The ultimate objective is to identify and address a country's medium and long-term priorities for adapting to climate change (Hammill, et al. 2019). NAPs and NDCs can be mutually reinforcing: the priorities identified through a country's NAP process can be included in its NDC, and the NAP process itself can be a means ofoperationalizing the adaptation commitments of its NDC. (Hammill, et al. 2019)Importantly, climate adaptation mainstreaming in economic development efforts needs to be considered as a spectrum of approaches/activities (see Figure 2), from the development of separate, standalone climate adaptation policies, strategies, programs and projects ("targeted approach5), to the systemic integration of adaptation considerations across all areas and at all levels of development processes ("integrated approach5).description Standalone climate adaptation actions to help raise the adaptation profile and support climate adaptation mainstreaming in specific areas and levels of governanceFigure 2: Mainstreaming climate adaptation in development effortsintegrated approachhybrid approach (twin-track)Combination of standalone climate adaptation actions and actions that integrate adaptation in development processesSystemic integration of adaptation considerations across all areas and at all levels of development processesexampleJamaica's standalone sectorThe Fijian Ministry of Economy'sso far, limited or no example ofadaptation strategiesClimate Change and International Cooperation Division developed a NAP document (2017), and the Ministry of Health developed a Health Strategy Action Plan (2016)fully integrated approach availableGood to keep some standalone adaptation activities and dedicated funds for visibility purposesA good starting point toward climate mainstreaming (can help to improve actors* understanding of adaptation)More long-term objective to increase coordination and effectivenessrationalerationale00CD tU)often measured in terms of GDP losses or gains. There are few documented examples of climate economic modelling results that have directly influenced decision-making at national and subnational levels. One such example is the new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change released in 2021, which explicitly refers to the results of the project 'Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the EU based on bottom-up Analysis' (PESETA). Reasons for the lack of documented examples may include, among others, the complexity and high-level of uncertainties associated with change in climate and non-climate variables and related impacts as well as the general tendency to focus on short-term priorities. Generally speaking, climate economic modelling is most relevant to support three main purposes, which are important for integrating climate adaptation into economic development: (1) problem framing/orientation, (2) stakeholder engagement and awareness raising, and (3) advocacy and communications (see below).1. Problem framing/orientation> Illustrating that climate change can impact directly and indirectly all sectors of the economy, meaning that it should be framed as an economic and social development issue (versus solely as an environmental issue) that concerns all actors across all sectors and levels> Building consensus among key actors (eg, starting with model developers) on the need to prioritize certain sectors/groups of the population/regions for further investigations.> Providing evidence on the overall direction of changes and the interactions among different variables in the economic system; providing a basis for further discussions and analysis2. Stakeholder engagement and awareness raising> Providing a space for dialogue between and among policy and decision-makers and scientific experts. The resulting network building and stakeholder engagement can help increase interest and understanding of the topic. The process of developing the model and interpreting results, if done using participatory approaches, can support awareness raising. Importandy, this means that the process of developing the economic model vH is as important as (if not more important than) 区S.The role of climate economic modelling for adaptation mainstreamingWhile the global economic impacts of climate change remain riddled with uncertainty, this can be partially offset by more local, countrybased analyses. Predicting the impacts of climate change on economic growth (with and without adaptation) is associated with numerous methodological challenges. Estimates show significant variations. This is due to, among others, the diversity of approaches used focusing on different sectors and using different assumptions (e.g.5 assumptions on levels and causes of economic growth, on demographics, on future climate hazards and impacts), uncertainties associated with both future climate change and economic growth in the long-term, and the diversity of (economic) development contexts with important differences within and among countries. (For further information, see for e.g.? OECD, 2021; Defries et al., 2019; Kousky, 2014). As such, there is an important need for more local, country-based evidence to support decision making and investments. Climate economic modelling can help countries to quantify the future impacts of climate change on their economy. Specifically, it can help explore questions such as: How does climate change affect the demand and supply for goods and services? What are the effects on producers and consumers? What is the effect on the overall economy? How do specific climate adaptation measures affect the demand and supply of goods and services? How do they affect the financing conditions of economic agents? What is the effect on the overall economy? (Arent et al. 2014)Climate economic modelling (both in terms of results and process) can support the integration of climate adaptation in economic development. An adage about modelling in general is that: "AH models are wrong, but some are useful. The main added value of (economic) modelling is the translation of complex relationships in numbers and figures to give an indication of the general direction of impacts (e.g., related to climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic) on the economy of a country. This isthe results (for more information, see for eg, IISD, 2019 and Weaver et al., 2013).> Raising the awareness of model users and developers on the importance of taking a longterm, forward-looking perspectiveDiscussing intersectoral and economy-wide impacts beyond their own sector and/or scale of governance as well as the potential tradeoffs between different objectives or strategies.> Testing some assumptions and beliefs, building trust between policy makers and scientists and generating data that is trusted by policymakers. Feedback provided by policy and decisionmakers can also help scientists to improve models.3. Advocacy and communicationsAssigning numbers to climate change impacts and climate adaptation can raise the profile of adaptation and provide more impetus towards ambitious action on adaptation. Tt can serve as a basis to advocate on the urgency of acting on/prioritizing climate adaptation. This is important because given the limited resources available, adaptation mainstreaming may appear to "compete5 with various other development priorities (e.g., poverty reduction, social inclusion, mitigation, disaster risks reduction, biodiversity conservation).> Communicating results in relatively easy to grasp and 'actionable5 messages such as "if you take action in sector x, the GDP will increase by x% by 2050 compare to the scenario without adaptation”if you take the following adaptation action "xxx”, you can avoid the estimated damage of floods by x% of the GDP by 2050”. Such messages can help inform key actors about the aggregate implications of climate change and the role of climate adaptation measures in minimizing or avoiding climate change damages. This is particularly useful, because to gain some traction, climate adaptation needs to speak to the ministries with budgetary power (often the ministries of finance, planning and economy). These ministries tend to have strong convening and decision-making powers. Results from climate economic models help translate the impacts of changes in climate on the various economic activities of a country and the benefits of adaptation measures in quantitative terms in such a way that they are tailored to the specific needs of these ministries.Combining climate economic modelling with other tools and qualitative analysis facilitates its use for decision-making. A mix of quantitative (monetary valuation) and qualitative information is important to obtain a more nuanced picture of climate change impacts. In fact, qualitative information may sometimes influence decision making more than figures only (OECD, 2021). It is also important to recognise that economic impacts cannot be isolated from other impacts from climate change (e.g., physical, social, environmental, fiscal) which interact in complex ways. The IPCC (Chambwera et al. 2014) warns that a n