中国煤变油市场研究(1).pdf

10 July 2006Asian Daily IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX.U.S.Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Customers of Credit Suisse in the United States can receive independent,third party research on the company or companies covered in this report,at no cost to them,where such research is available.Customers can access this independent research at www.credit- or call 1 877 291 2683 or email equity.researchcredit- to request a copy of this research.Asian Oil and Gas Sector-Maintain MARKET WEIGHT Coal to oil:Potentially 1 mn bbl a day between 2010 and 2013 Prashant Gokhale/Research Analyst/852 2101 6944/prashant.gokhalecredit- Edwin Pang/Research Analyst/852 2101 6406/edwin.pangcredit- Horace Tse/Research Analyst/852 2101 7379/horace.tsecredit- In her recently published report Coal to Oil a clean and brightfuture,Credit Suisse mining analyst Trina Chen highlights themassive pipeline of coal to oil plants in China,and the positiveimplications for coal prices.In this report,we take a quick glance at the implications for the oilmarket.Incremental oil supply is material beyond 2009,with1 mn bd of new capacity over five years,adding about 15-25%to non-OPECs annual run rate of 0.8-1.2 mn bd.The greatestimpact is in 2010-11,with 0.3 mn bd in each year.Assuming that Chinas oil demand grows by about 7%p.a.,anddomestic crude production grows by around 2.25%p.a.,Chinasimports could slow down to low single digits.We believe that coalto oil is Chinas real strategic reserve it is entirely domestic andlocated inland,meeting strategic needs.High oil prices are making alternatives more attractive.They posea risk to oil prices later in the decade.In that period,oil remainswell supported at US$50-55/bbl.We have UNDERPERFORMratings on PetroChina and PTTEP.We prefer CNOOC in China.We have OUTPERFORM ratings on Medco and SK Corp.Credit Suisses metals and mining team recently published a report called Coal to oil a clean and bright future,dated 6 July.In the report,the analysts look at the large pipeline of new coal to oil capacity in China and its impact on coal demand and prices.In this report,we look at the implications of this pipeline of capacity growth for the oil sector.Key take-aways 1)It has no impact in the medium term,but is material in terms of potential incremental supply growth from 2010-13,adding about 1 mn bbls a day of new supply,mainly in gasoline,naphtha and diesel.2)The biggest impact is in 2010/11,with over 300 mn bd of new capacity slated for a start-up.This represents about 25-35%of the incremental non-OPEC supply seen in the last few years.3)Assuming 7%growth in Chinas oil demand,coal to oil could meet 28%of incremental demand between 2007 and 2011,and about 50%of incremental demand in 2010/2011.4)Coinciding with the potential ramp-up of the Russia-China pipeline,and the expansion of the Kazakhstan-China pipeline(in 2010),incremental supply could materially weigh on the demand-supply balance.5)Conventional oil is expected to grow at about 2.5-3%p.a.in 2006-07(globally),leading to a build-up of spare capacity.That said,as long as demand holds up,oil is well supported at US$50-55/bbl through to the end of this decade.Coal to oil is a good example of alternatives becoming attractive against the backdrop of high oil prices.While not a worry in the medium term,it could be a concern with time,especially if high oil prices crimp demand and change demand patterns(smaller,more fuel-efficient cars,use of LNG,etc.).6)We remain cautious on the oil sector in Asia,given that we are on the cusp of supply growing faster than demand(2H06).We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating on PetroChina and PTTEP.We prefer CNOOC in China.We rate Medco and SK Corp as OUTPERFORM.Figure 1:Coal to oil capacity build-out Coal to Oil-New Capacity02004006008001000120014002006200720082009201020112012201320142015MbdSource:China Association of Social&Economic System Research,Credit Suisse estimates.Figure 2:Meeting Chinas incremental demand(200)-2004006008001,0002000200120022003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EMbdDomestic Production(mbd)Coal to OilImports/(Exports)Source:Industry Sources,Credit Suisse estimates.Figure 3:The real strategic reserve-10020030040050060045 Days60 Days90 DaysCoal to Oil(annual capacity)Strategic Inventory-by Days of Import cover in 2013 vs Coal to Oil annual productionSource:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates.10 July 2006Asian Daily-2 of 8-Companies Mentioned (Price as of 07 Jul 06)PT Medco Energi International TBK(MEDC.JK,Rp3900.00,OUTPERFORM V,TP Rp4458.81)PTT Exploration&Production(PTTE.BK,Bt110.00,UNDERPERFORM,TP Bt106.00)CNOOC Ltd(0883.HK,HK$6.35,NEUTRAL,TP HK$5.70)PetroChina-H(0857.HK,HK$8.55,UNDERPERFORM,TP HK$6.78)China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation-H(0386.HK,HK$4.43,NEUTRAL,TP HK$4.55)SK Corp.(003600.KS,W62,700,OUTPERFORM,TP W78,500)Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures I,Prashant Gokhale,certify that(1)the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and(2)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.3-Year Price,Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for MEDC.JK 457042805000448013-Sep-054,458.81444424780ORONN1125162521252625312536254125462511-Jul-0311-Sep-0311-Nov-0311-Jan-0411-Mar-0411-May-0411-Jul-0411-Sep-0411-Nov-0411-Jan-0511-Mar-0511-May-0511-Jul-0511-Sep-0511-Nov-0511-Jan-0611-Mar-0611-May-06Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/AssumptionRatingIDR O=Outperform;N=Neutral;U=Underperform;R=Restricted;NR=Not Rated;NC=Not Covered MEDC.JK Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/Date Price(IDR)Price(IDR)RatingAssumption 13-Sep-05 35004780OUTPERFORMX 7-Nov-05 34754570 16-Dec-05 33504280 23-Feb-06 41005000 4-Apr-06 41254442NEUTRAL 25-Apr-06 47504480 9-May-06 4775RESTRICTED 19-Jun-06 3500NEUTRAL 22-Jun-06 35754,458.814OUTPERFORM Companies Mentioned (Price as of 07 Jul 06)PT Medco Energi International TBK(MEDC.JK,Rp3900.00,OUTPERFORM V,TP Rp4458.81)PTT Exploration&Production(PTTE.BK,Bt110.00,UNDERPERFORM,TP Bt106.00)CNOOC Ltd(0883.HK,HK$6.35,NEUTRAL,TP HK$5.70)PetroChina-H(0857.HK,HK$8.55,UNDERPERFORM,TP HK$6.78)China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation-H(0386.HK,HK$4.43,NEUTRAL,TP HK$4.55)SK Corp.(003600.KS,W62,700,OUTPERFORM,TP W78,500)Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures Prashant Gokhale&A-Hyung Cho each certify,with respect to the companies or securities that he or she analyzes,that(1)the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and(2)no part of his or her compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.10 July 2006Asian Daily-3 of 8-3-Year Price,Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for MEDC.JK 457042805000448013-Sep-054,458.81444424780ORONN1125162521252625312536254125462511-Jul-0311-Sep-0311-Nov-0311-Jan-0411-Mar-0411-May-0411-Jul-0411-Sep-0411-Nov-0411-Jan-0511-Mar-0511-May-0511-Jul-0511-Sep-0511-Nov-0511-Jan-0611-Mar-0611-May-06Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/AssumptionRatingIDR O=Outperform;N=Neutral;U=Underperform;R=Restricted;NR=Not Rated;NC=Not Covered MEDC.JK Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/Date Price(IDR)Price(IDR)RatingAssumption 13-Sep-05 35004780OUTPERFORMX 7-Nov-05 34754570 16-Dec-05 33504280 23-Feb-06 41005000 4-Apr-06 41254442NEUTRAL 25-Apr-06 47504480 9-May-06 4775RESTRICTED 19-Jun-06 3500NEUTRAL 22-Jun-06 35754,458.814OUTPERFORM 3-Year Price,Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for 0883.HK 2.722.82.73.43.954.144.35.156.26.456.25.986.216.245.75NRNORNNON22.533.544.555.566.5711-Jul-0311-Sep-0311-Nov-0311-Jan-0411-Mar-0411-May-0411-Jul-0411-Sep-0411-Nov-0411-Jan-0511-Mar-0511-May-0511-Jul-0511-Sep-0511-Nov-0511-Jan-0611-Mar-0611-May-06Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/AssumptionRatingHKD O=Outperform;N=Neutral;U=Underperform;R=Restricted;NR=Not Rated;NC=Not Covered 10 July 2006Asian Daily-4 of 8-0883.HK Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/Date Price(HKD)Price(HKD)RatingAssumption 5-Sep-03 2.912.72 9-Sep-03 2.742.8 24-Oct-03 2.73NEUTRAL 20-Jan-04 3.22.7 13-Apr-04 3.3753.4 14-May-04 2.775OUTPERFORM 8-Jul-04 3.275NEUTRAL 9-Sep-04 3.63.95 23-Nov-04 4.5254.1 25-Nov-04 4.475RESTRICTED 26-Nov-04 4.3NEUTRAL 18-Feb-05 4.2754 24-Mar-05 4.2754.3 24-Jun-05 4.2755OUTPERFORM 7-Jul-05 4.95.15 13-Sep-05 5.356.2 20-Jan-06 6.36.45 24-Jan-06 6.46.2 8-Feb-06 6.6NEUTRAL 13-Apr-06 6.355.98 25-Apr-06 6.46.21 26-Apr-06 6.56.24 27-Apr-06 6.5RESTRICTED 12-Jun-06 5.55.7NEUTRAL 3-Year Price,Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for 0857.HK 1.92.13.53.94.054.655.56.36.816.487.136.78NU1234567891011-Jul-0311-Sep-0311-Nov-0311-Jan-0411-Mar-0411-May-0411-Jul-0411-Sep-0411-Nov-0411-Jan-0511-Mar-0511-May-0511-Jul-0511-Sep-0511-Nov-0511-Jan-0611-Mar-0611-May-06Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/AssumptionRatingHKD O=Outperform;N=Neutral;U=Underperform;R=Restricted;NR=Not Rated;NC=Not Covered 0857.HK Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/Date Price(HKD)Price(HKD)RatingAssumption 28-Aug-03 2.61.9 9-Sep-03 2.5752.1 13-Apr-04 43.5 9-Sep-04 3.853.9 23-Nov-04 4.3254.05 18-Jan-05 4.2NEUTRAL 24-Mar-05 4.7754.65 7-Jul-05 6.055.5 13-Sep-05 6.26.3 9-Feb-06 7.56.81 13-Apr-06 8.456.48 25-Apr-06 8.757.13 7-Jun-06 8.156.78UNDERPERFORM 10 July 2006Asian Daily-5 of 8-3-Year Price,Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for 003600.KS 2270030000410005200060000750006000068000660007850027-Oct-0402-Nov-05720006100019000ONO1245022450324504245052450624507245011-Jul-0311-Sep-0311-Nov-0311-Jan-0411-Mar-0411-May-0411-Jul-0411-Sep-0411-Nov-0411-Jan-0511-Mar-0511-May-0511-Jul-0511-Sep-0511-Nov-0511-Jan-0611-Mar-0611-May-06Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/AssumptionRatingKRW O=Outperform;N=Neutral;U=Underperform;R=Restricted;NR=Not Rated;NC=Not Covered 003600.KS Closing PriceTarget PriceInitiation/Date Price(KRW)Price(KRW)RatingAssumption 4-Aug-03 1380019000OUTPERFORM 21-Aug-03 1780022700 3-Nov-03 2500030000 15-Dec-03 3200041000 3-Feb-04 3720052000 24-Feb-04 4125060000 29-Apr-04 4940075000 13-Jul-04 4550060000 30-Sep-04 5310068000 27-Oct-04 X 13-Dec-04 5800061000NEUTRAL 21-Apr-05 6000072000OUTPERFORM 25-Jul-05 4860066000 2-Nov-05 X 13-Apr-06 6870078500 The analyst(s)responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisses total revenues,a portion of 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