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    年度农业投资策略.pdf

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    年度农业投资策略.pdf

    ?2009?12?2010?2010?5%?2010?20%?95-09?1?2010?335?3?2010?1?2?3?4?EPS?PE?08A 09E10E 11E 08A09E10E11E?32.80 0.01 0.520.90 1.30 328063 36 25?45?18.81 0.07 0.200.60 1.00 26994 31 19?24?31.81 0.39 0.811.05 1.30 82 39 30 24?36?22.06 0.42 0.760.90 1.08 53 29 25 20?27?11.99 0.38 0.400.60 0.72 32 30 20 17?15?13.03 0.13 0.290.39 0.57 10045 33 23?17?18.27 0.5 0.500.72 0.83 37 37 25 22?22?29.56 0.57 0.801.05 1.41 52 37 28 21?35?31.56 0.55 0.680.88 1.07 57 46 36 29?33?10.48 0.2 0.210.27 0.33 52 50 39 32?12.5?26.55 0.44 0.500.72 0.90 60 53 37 30?-?40.49 0.58 0.760.98 1.26 70 53 41 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2009E2010E2011E2008A2009E2010E 2011E?002041?32.80 0.01 0.52 0.90 1.30 3280 63 36 25?45600354?18.81 0.07 0.20 0.60 1.00 269 94 31 19?24600298?31.81 0.39 0.81 1.05 1.30 82 39 30 24?36600195?22.06 0.42 0.76 0.90 1.08 53 29 25 20?27000910?11.99 0.38 0.40 0.60 0.72 32 30 20 17?15000713?13.03 0.13 0.29 0.39 0.57 100 45 33 23?17000860?18.27 0.5 0.50 0.72 0.83 37 37 25 22?22002200?29.56 0.57 0.80 1.05 1.41 52 37 28 21?35600737?16.59 0.31 0.50 0.59 0.65 54 33 28 26?18600978?8.25 0.18 0.28 0.35 0.45 46 29 24 18?8.8 002069?31.56 0.55 0.68 0.88 1.07 57 46 36 29?33000876?13.89 0.52 0.60 0.75 0.86 27 23 19 16?-600598?14.88 0.36 0.38 0.43 0.52 41 39 35 29?18600467?10.48 0.2 0.21 0.27 0.33 52 50 39 32?12.5 600201?10.47 0.26 0.36 0.39 0.48 40 29 27 22?-000061?12.98 0.12 0.17 0.24 0.30 108 76 54 43?-000998?18.72 0.26 0.18 0.35 0.40 72 104 53 47?-000972?10.80-0.16 0.20 0.35 0.40-68 54 31 27?-000911?22.48 0.09 0.28 0.63 0.80 250 80 36 28?-600438?11.60 0.15 0.24 0.32 0.40 77 48 36 29?-002299?26.55 0.44 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8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 110 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 120 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 130 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 140 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 150 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 160 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 170 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 180 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 190 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35?/?200 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36?2010?EPS?0.27?1?/?EPS?0.01?10?/?EPS?0.01-0.02?1?/?EPS?0.09-0.10?10?/?EPS?0.04-0.05?14?/?0.88 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.2 28.2 29.2 130 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.74 0.84 0.93 1.03 140 0.49 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.88 0.98 1.08 150 0.54 0.64 0.73 0.83 0.93 1.02 1.12 160 0.58 0.68 0.78 0.88 0.97 1.07 1.17 170 0.63 0.73 0.82 0.92 1.02 1.12 1.21 180 0.67 0.77 0.87 0.97 1.06 1.16 1.26?/?190 0.72 0.82 0.91 1.01 1.11 1.21 1.30?2010?EPS?0.88?2010?4?20%?2009?2010?2009?12?25?20%?1?2000?2008?839?4-5?2010?600298?48?/?19604205112072321350217001850019000195002000020500210002150022000200720082009E2010E2011E?49?/?1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0200001200007200101200107200201200207200301200307200401200407200501200507200601200607200701200707200801200807200901200907?2000?6?60?/?09/10?70-80?08?69?07?104?840-920?/?50?0200004000060000800001000001200001400002003072003102004012004042004072004102005012005042005072005102006012006042006072006102007012007042007072007102008012008042008072008102009012009042009072009100500100015002000?/?2010?2009?12?26?50%-80%?550?/?6.8?1?100?/?200?/?1500?/?60?/?50-70?/?2009?6?CPI?2010?15?/?EPS?PE?2008A 2009E 2010E2011E2008A2009E2010E2011EPB PS?002041?32.80 0.01 0.52 0.90 1.30 328063 36 25 8.1513.85?45600354?18.81 0.07 0.20 0.60 1.00 269 94 31 19 6.733.15?24600298?31.81 0.39 0.81 1.05 1.30 82 39 30 24 8.766.58?36600195?22.06 0.42 0.76 0.90 1.20 53 29 25 18 7.004.71?27000910?11.99 0.38 0.40 0.60 0.72 32 30 20 17 3.191.11?15000713?13.03 0.13 0.29 0.39 0.57 100 45 33 23 5.293.11?17000860?18.27 0.5

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