(中国电子商务市场之研究-以即时通讯为例).docx

Towards an Understanding of E-Commerce in China-Using Instant Messaging(中國電子商務市場之研究-以即時通訊為例)林娟娟東吳大學資訊科學系jclincis.scu.edu.tw林政毅東吳大學資訊科學研究所teddylAbstractRecently, Instant Messaging (IM) has been widely discussed. Based on the content of discussion, we can observe that IM is gradually becoming a very outstanding commercial communication tool. As the numbers of users grow tremendously, the emerging commercial opportunities are attracting many investors interests to enter this market aggressively.The increasing number of worldwide IM subscribers and the fast growing online revenue boost the potential of IM as a key business opportunity in China. The success in this business relies on the understanding of the demands of customers and the effective promotion of IM usages. Thus this research will explore the determining factors motivating individuals to pay for IM services in China.The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) is considered as the basic model. To better reflect IM context, the research model also incorporates Perceived Service Quality, Perceived Experience and Perceived Trust. The causal relationships between the theoretical constructs used in the revised TAM will be examined to understand IM users behavior towards paying in IM.Keywords: IM, Instant Messaging, Individual Behavior, China.1. IntroductionIn China, E-Commerce has grown rapidly in the past few years. In 1997, there were only 670,000 Internet users in China and the number has remarkably jumped to 103 million by the end of June, 2005. In terms of Internet market size, China E-Commerce reached 320 billion RenMinBi (RMB, the currency of China) by the end of 2004 and is expected to reach 1,700 billion RMB (equivalent to 6,800 billion New Taiwan Dollar; NTD) by 2007 (iResearch Inc, 2005 iResearch Inc., Report of China B2B E-Commerce Analysis in 2004, May 2005, .). In short, there is great potential for E-Commerce development in China.Recently, Instant Messaging (IM) has been widely discussed. Base on the content f discussion (Nardi et al., 2000; Ellen et al., 2002; Rebecca and Leysia, 2002), it is observed that IM is becoming a very outstanding commercial opportunities also attract man investors interests to enter this market aggressively. Take Tencent QQ for example, as the biggest IM services provider in China, its market share is as high as 65%, about 85.5 million users in 2005 (Analysys, 2005 Analysys Inc., Periodical Report 2005, Nov. 2005, .). Although Tencent QQ offers basic IM function for free, it also provides many paid services such as avatars, online dating and message forwarding from IM to mobile phones. In the second quarter of 2005 (2Q05), for the first time ever, Tencent generated over 50% of its revenue from Internet value added services (IVAS) and produced 41% of its revenue from mobile value added services (MVAS) including the subscription service for IM forwarding to mobile phones. This shows the potential of paid-services with a special focus on Mobile IM and Personal Expression as the key to monetization in China.Even though, more and more Taiwan businesses are moving over to China, there is however, very little discussion about China E-Commerce and IM industry. This study intends to extend an understanding of E-Commerce and IM industry in China and identify the possible determinants that lead to individuals behavioral intention to adopt IM. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold: to understand to E-Commerce market in China with an emphasis in the IM; and to examine the human motivations underlying individual behavioral intention to use and pay for IM services in China.In the next section we will provide a brief overview the China E-Commerce landscape and the IM industry today. In section 3, we will review current related theories. Conceptual background of the study and hypotheses will be discussed in Section 4. The last section will explain the expected outcome of this study.2. China E-Commerce and IM industryIn this section, a brief overview of the China E-Commerce landscape and IM industry will be provided to help us understand this enormous market.2.1 E-Commerce in ChinaThe E-Commerce in China began with the introduction of the China Goods Order System (CGOS) which was set up by the China National Commodity Exchange Center (CCEC) in 1997. In 1998, there was the "Capital E-Commerce project" and in 1999, the biggest E-Commerce portal began its operation. Since then, the penetration of Internet computer reached 45.6 million which has increased 25.6% and Internet users grew to 103 million and accounted for 18.4% increase from 2004 (China Internet Network Information Center, CNNIC). This is about 7.7% of total population in China. However, the Internet penetration rate is still relatively low (<15% currently) compared to other Asian countries. This shows an opportunity for high online user growth in the future.Despite the low penetration rate, China E-Commerce market still managed to reach 320 billion RMB by the end of 2004. The trading amount in 2004 reached 316 billion RMB. The overall E-Commerce market in China is expected to be at 1,700 billion RMB (6,800 billion NTD equivalent) by 2007 (iResearch Inc, 2005 iResearch Inc., Report of China B2B E-Commerce Analysis in 2004, May 2005, .) (Ref. Figure 1). In short, there is great potential for E-Commerce development in China.Figure 1: China E-Commerce Market Development4.2.1 Business-to-Business (B2B) over InternetMost B2B services in China were launched in 2000. With the support from the Chinese government in terms of policy, regulation, infrastructure and etc., “on-line trading markets” dominate the B2B sector where service providers create websites to serve a large number of vendors and buyers, often small- and medium-sized enterprises. This model is popular, mostly because small- and medium-sized businesses do not have adequate IT investment, technical capabilities and staff support to create and maintain their own E-Commerce facilities and have to rely on a third party for a packaged solution. However, there are not many reputable B2B websites in China. The A (part of Yahoo China now) is among the largest of these companies. The other E-Commerce startups all target specific fields and trades, such as distance learning, building materials, cosmetics, medicines, securities, insurance, and environmental protection. B2B E-Commerce diffusion will, to a large extent, be determined by the pace of IT infrastructure development among enterprises. In the short-run, rapid diffusion is predicted with the dominance of “on-line trading market” services (CCID, 2001a CCID Consulting, Survey on B2B E-Commerce in China. Beijing, CCID Consultant Corporation, 2001.).One of the most significant key drivers for this phenomenon is the Chinese government. China is still a government-dominated society. Promoting information technology has been viewed by the government as both the bottom line to survive and the strategic means to grow. That is why the government has launched “Government Online” and “Enterprises Online” to promote Internet and E-Commerce among government agencies and enterprises. This driver is based both on the economic and political agenda. Another driver is the desire of enterprises, especially larger ones, to connect to the global economy after Chinas WTO accession. Promoting B2B E-Commerce is viewed as one of the basic requirements to enter global production networks, while it would also enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of Chinese firms. Further, B2B is viewed as one of the significantly growing sectors in China in the near future by both Chinese and foreign IT service providers. The potential profits would attract both domestic and foreign services providers to allocate more resources and implement more deployments, which would further drive E-Commerce diffusion in China.However, the most serious barriers would be the lack of trust among B2B participants. There is not a solid legal and technical foundation to monitor and to enforce the trust relationship among involved parties. This lack of trust will generally handicap contract enforcement and delay the adoption of E-Commerce.4.2.2 Business-to-Consumer (B2C) over Internet Comparing to B2B development, B2C in general, has not succeeded in taking off in China. This is a result of the lack of support from Chinas government for B2C development in the country. B2C activities are focused in large cities and coastal provinces where we see better IT infrastructure and a larger number of Internet users. The poor delivery system and lack of a general credible monitoring system, along with a poor payment system, have resulted in serious barriers to B2C market expansion (Wu and Zhu, 2000; Han et al., 2003). In addition, legislation of government laws is also lagging behind. The CCID, the most popular IT information consultant firm in China and closely tied to Chinas Ministry of Information Industry, concluded that the B2C market would require much nurturing by service providers and the government to succeed.The most significant key driver for B2C growth is the potential profits for B2C service providers and entrepreneurs. B2C has been viewed by both traditional service corporations and new technology-oriented firms and individuals as a great profit making opportunity. The large size of the Chinese market is especially appealing. B2C is also driven by young and well-educated consumers for convenience and timesaving factors.However, B2C is particularly handicapped by the poor infrastructure, in general, and limited disposable income. The lack of a solid foundation for payment, delivery and even trust systems make B2C practice hard to implement. The low dispensable income of Chinese consumers dilutes the impacts of market size as well. The ones that survive mainly depend on hit rate or advertising revenue e.g. Sina, Netease and (now part of Yahoo China). Very few companies actually make money from online transactions.4.2.3 Consumer-to- Consumer (C2C) over Internet According to Analysys International, a leading Internet-based business information service provider, the registered subscribers of C2C market in 2004 were 15.08 million in China, while by the end of the third quarter of 2005, the total subscribers had reached 29 million, nearly doubled in only 9 months. From the transaction handled perspective, the total C2C market size in China has reached RMB 8.77 billion in the first three quarter of 2005, which is almost twice from 2004. As in year of 2005, T leads the market with 57.1% share in terms of total transaction, with its turnover at RMB 1.02 billion in first quarter, second quarter at 1.67 billion and third quarter at 2.32 billion.However, the C2C is still in its embryonic stage. The C2C's potential in China is most apparent when looking into the companies competing for domination of this market (i.e. Taobao, eBay, Sina, and Yahoo). Competition, however, has also become a major characteristic of this quickly growing market. These websites offer secured online trade function, lower the bargain risk of the parties concerned, provide fast on-line direct deal opportunity for personal and small business and is welcome by vast amount of customers (China E-Commerce White Paper, 2003 Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China Department of Information Technology, China E-Commerce White Paper, 2003.).4.2.4 Financial and Delivery InfrastructureUsing credit card as a payment method is a relatively new transaction method in China. In fact, the first card was issued in Guangdong province as recent as 1985. The number of credit cards and debit cards has grown rapidly with 330 million new cards issued in 2000. However, the usage rate is surprisingly low because customer will pay cash in the most of time. Unfortunately, on-line payment of E-Commerce in China mainly depends on credit card, debit card, and other bank cards. According to iResearchs investigation in 2005, 48.4% of online shoppers process bills by on-line payment, 0.3% by mobile-phone, 23.3% by payment-after-delivery, 16.6% by bank remittance, and 10.9% by post office remittance (Ref. Figure 2). The lack of trustable online payment methods becomes a big concern for online shoppers.Figure 2: Netizen Online Pay WayChina's postal delivery system is mostly dominated by the defacto monopoly, China Posts, which provides complete national coverage. Compared with counterparts of advanced countries, China Posts delivery time is long and unreliable, specifically in remote and rural areas. Express delivery services by China Posts are only available in big cities and economically developed provinces. International services are often jointly offered by China Posts and foreign carriers such as UPS. There are cargo services offered by airlines, railway systems, trucking carriers, and boat transportation companies in big cities. However, these services are very different from UPS in many ways. For example, goods are not delivered to customers office or home. They have to be picked up at service providers central warehouses.This must improve in order to facilitate E-Commerce activities. In many cases, especially within a metropolitan area, E-Commerce service providers are hiring, or even establishing their own, private delivery networks. There is no sophisticated national private courier company yet. It is expected that various delivery firms will have opportunities to grow with the diffusion of E-Commerce.4.2.5 Policy and Tax Regulation ModelsE-Commerce has emerged as a new and dynamic field in the world, including in China. Many policy and regulatory issues fall into the overlapping territories of multiple traditional policy agencies. However, it is worthwhile to note that some provincial and local governments are ahead of the central government in formulating E-Commerce policies. For example, Guangdong province legislated laws for governing E-Commerce in its territory. This is another reflection of geographic disparity, which will lead to varying diffusion patterns in different geographic areas (Zheng et al., 1999).Chinas tax system is quite different from that of many other countries. The taxes are distributed among local governments and state agencies. E-Commerce vendors are required to pay the same kinds of taxes as regular vendors. However, there is no clear guidance for E-Commerce transaction.In summary, the policy and tax regulation for E-Commerce is still weak in China. It is lake of protection to the Internet users and market participants from legal point of view.4.2.6 Security and PrivacyConsumers have listed security and encryption as the top concern in many s