中国在拉丁美洲基础设施投资的当前和潜在作用.docx

Table of contentsAbstract7Introduction9Infrastructure investments in Latin America: gaps, trends and space for public policies11A. Persistent infrastructure gap in Latin America 11Public policies and the role of Governments in infrastructure development in Latin America19B. Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure: regional experience and lessons learned 28PPPs and infrastructure development 291. PPPs in Latin America32Lessons learned and policy implications about PPPs in Latin America 37IL China: its current and potential role in infrastructure investment in Latin America 43The capability accumulation process of the Chinese infrastructure companies431. The capability development of Chinese infrastructure companies in the domestic market 44PPP Mode 46A. The capability development of Chinese infrastructure companies inthe international market46Conventional Procurement 471. PPP Mode 48global leader (Germany) in infrastructure has been growing, reaching in 2016 the highest level since the start of the measurement of the LPI (from 1.76 to 1.96).Figure 1Latin America (20 countries) and other world regions: the International Logistics Performance Indicator (LPI), the overall and infrastructure subindicators, 2016(Score of the LPis subindicators)Europe andCentral AsiaEast Asia andPacificMiddle East and Latin America (20) South Asia North AfricaSub-SaharanAfrica Overall InfrastructureSource: World Bank.Note: Latin America is represented by 20 countries and the other world regions by the number of countries surveyed by the LPI (for more detail visit ). Latin America (20) considers 20 countries that are members of ECLAC and conforming the Latin America group of countries: Argentina, Bolivia (Plur. State of), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Rep. Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Paraguay, El Salvador, Uruguay, Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of).Timeliness4.230304020InfrastructureTracking and tracingLogistics competenceTop Performer (Germany)Figure 2Latin America (20 countries), China and the World Top Performer: the International Logistics Performance Indicator (LPI), 2016 (Score of the LPKs subindicators)Overall 5,031CustomsInternational shipmentsLatin America (20)ChinaSource: World Bank.Note: Latin America is represented by 20 countries (for more detail, visit ). See note of chart 1 concerningLatin America (20).The basic data on transport infrastructure for road transport confirm perception indicators, demonstrating the insufficient level of land connectivity in the region. By 2015, the regional average of 22.8 km of road network per 100 km2 was well below other countries or groups, such as Germany, the Republic of Korea, the OECD countries and the United States. See chart 3.OPB>BSUJ 己出PEPUBd一 n O±X9W SB-npu。工 B-PUJa-BnDssou .TqLUOoD 0=8Qo 83s U2d)B>_O8 puw。6a s 四区 s pcn Q?d。邑 §0 B 更。>| JO AuelwaFigure 3Latin America and the World (selected countries and regions): total road network density, 2015(In kilometers per 100 square kilometers)Density (km per 100 square km) - « Latin America (16) (average)Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for Latin American countries and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for Germany, Rep. of Korea, United States and OECD (Europe).Note: The average of Latin America considers 16 countries Argentina, Bolivia (Plur. State of), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay.It should be noted that the region's average figures hide large divergences among countries in the region. Only four countries (Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) are above the average road density of 22.8 km per 100 km2. Similarly, national averages conceal the high heterogeneity of land connectivity within countries. In the case of Brazil, for instance, the road density per capita varies widely between national sub-regions (according data from DNIT and IBGE, 2015). Divergences are even more pronounced when only paved roads are taken into consideration. Both road network quality (given by percentage of paved roads) and total coverage has improved in all countries of the region between 2007 and 2015. However, on average, only 23% of the road network in LA is paved, with half of the countries presenting paving levels below this regional average. Secondary and tertiary roads account for an average weight of 85% over the total network.Compared to 2007 levels, the observed growth of the road network, that occurred in most LA countries, leading the regional average of 20.1 km in 2007 to the level of 22.8 km in 2015, translated into a positive evolution in terms of road density that is related to a vast territory. However, it should be noted that this positive development is much less important if population growth in the region is considered. In fact, the growth of the road density indicator by population is negative in most countries of the region. Contrary to this progress is the marked increase in the number of vehicles per km of the total network in almost all the countries of LAZ which in a period of less than 10 years has grown, on average, by 50%.For more details and explanations see Sanchez et al., 2017.In energy sector, Latin America has experienced a positive evolution in the past years as far as population access to electricity is concerned. In 2014, the coverage gap was of 3.0%, whereas in 1990 it was estimated to be at least 14.4%. This progress is nonetheless not enough, as the 2014 figure indicates that more than 18.4 million people in the region still lacked access to electricity. See chart 4.Figure 4Latin America and the World (selected countries and regions): proportion of population with access to electricity, 1990-2014(In percentage of total population)Figure 4Latin America and the World (selected countries and regions): proportion of population with access to electricity, 1990-2014(In percentage of total population)BGermanyEuropean UnionUnited StatesWorldRep. of Korea一o- Latin America (20)BOECD MembersSource: World Development Indicators (World Bank) (data downloaded in July 1st 2017). Note: See note of chart 1 concerning Latin America (20).In urban areas, the lack of coverage in 2014 corresponded to an average of 0.9% (more than 4.4 million people). In rural areas, however, the percentage of the population lacking access to electricity in 2014 was 11.4% (more than 14.7 million people). Whilst there has been significant progress between 1990 and 2014, the effort required to cover the shortfall has not been sufficient, leaving LA behind other economies from the standpoint of urban and rural areas.The heterogeneous situation of each country of the region, in economic, social and geographical terms, including topography and climate, leads to dissimilar coverage results. Particular attention should be paid to LA countries that are below the regional and global average of access to electricity, a problem lying mainly in rural villages.In contrast, Latin America and the Caribbean has one of the world's cleanest electric generation matrices. This is because the region makes greater use of hydraulic sources, and, within the use of fossil sources, a greater use of natural gas. However, the low share of electricity production from renewable(non-hydro) sources, as compared to the reference economies (apart from the Republic of Korea), is noteworthy. See charts 5 and 6.Figure 5Latin America and the World (selected countries and regions): share of different power sourcesin electricity generation, 2014(As percentage of total electricity generation)100100ET-7I-FTrr?2.1y. 23.016.628.710.618.443.143.11 D U27.766.315.667.569.559.156.742.948.346 50 516.211.913.0R 11908070605040302010AUPUJ0uoun up don 山(9a) UBqq.BO £ puasBs E4 U 一IP，sqiuw a。山o Hydropower Fossil fuels Nuclear energy Renewable energy (excluding hidropower)Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank) (data downloaded in July 1stz 2017).Note: Latin America and the Caribbean (42 countries), LAC (42), considers 42 countries of the region according World Bank's classification; Latin America and the Caribbean (26 countries), LAC (26), considers 26 countries of the region excluding high income economies according World Bank's classification; electricity production shares may not sum to 100 percent; fossil fuels refers to coal and derived fuels, gas (excluding natural gas liquids) and crude oil and petroleum products; renewable sources (excluding hydroelectric) includes geothermal solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, tide, wind, industrial waste, municipal waste, primary solid biofuels, biogases, biogasoline, biodiesels, other liquid biofuels, nonspecified primary biofuels and waste, and charcoal.Thus, the region has certain advantages for the future, such as the relatively low level of energy intensity, which is related to energy efficiency and GHG emissions. Although unconventional renewable sources still occupy a small share in the matrix, they represent opportunities for marginalized rural and urban populations. In the pursuit of sustainable development, the region should prioritize these sources to achieve inclusive growth decoupled from negative environmental impacts. (For more details and explanations see Sanchez et al.z 2017).In telecommunications sector, in 2015, LA displayed an average of 10.5 fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants and an average of 57.9 mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants. Regarding mobile telephony networks, the coverage was over 90% for third generation (3G) and around 70% for fourth generation (4G) in the first quarter of 2017, in a sample of 18 of the region's countries. Nevertheless, there is still a wide demand gap, since the average number of subscribers is only 53% of the population covered.Figure 6Latin America and the World (selected countries and regions): share of different fossil fuel sources in electricity generation, 2014(As percentage of total electricity generated from fossil fuel sources)Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank) (data downloaded in July 1st, 2017).Note: Latin America and the Caribbean (42 countries), LAC (42)z considers 42 countries of the region according World Bank's classification; Latin America and the Caribbean (26 countries), LAC (26), considers 26 countries of the region excluding high income economies according World Bank's classification; fossil fuels refers to coal and derived fuels, gas (excluding natural gas liquids) and crude oil and petroleum products.The access to telecommunication services, as well, is subject to major disparities among income groups. Although internet access has increased in nearly all income quintiles in Latin American countries in recent years, the difference in the number of households with access to this technology between the highest and lowest income quintile remains enormous: nearly four times more in Chile and Costa Rica; between eight and nine times in Uruguay, Ecuador and Brazil; 21 in the Plurinational State of Bolivia; and 45 times in Peru (see chart 7). This hinders online access to health, education and government services, besides impairing e-commerce among Latin American economies.The region also displays significant differences in the speed of broadband connections (and, therefore, their quality). For instance, speeds are almost six times higher in Chile and Uruguay than in Paraguay (see chart 8). Nonetheless, speeds in even the most advanced countries in the region are only around half the average for the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This indicates that the infrastructure gaps analyzed above are also present in the infrastructure that is supposed to support the technological revolution.Figure 7Latin America (9 countries): households with internet access by income quintile, around 2011 and 2015(Percentage points)Chile CosiaCicEBolivia (rlur. State三CostaBolivia (Plur ElBolivia (Plur. State3C30am3 三 UOQYear closest to 2011Year closest to 2015100Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Regional Broadband Observatory (ORBA), on the basis of household surveys.Note: The methodology used to calculate household per capita income was altered between the periods considered. The types of Internet connection that are included in the different countries are the following: in Paraguay, Internet by cable or wi-fi and Internet by USB modem; in Ecuador, dial-up, dedicated line, cable modem and mobile broadband (MBB); in Uruguay, fixed-line broadband (FLB), MBB and dedicated line; in Chile, fixed broadband (FBB) and MBB, either contracted or prepaid, in addition to mobile phone or another mobile device. In Costa Rica, the question is posed per housing unit, which could include more than one household.Figure 8Latin America (12 countries): Internet connection speeds, fourth quarter of 2016 (Megabits per second (Mb/s)Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)Z Regional Broadband Observatory (ORBA), on the basis of Akamai Technologies, Akamai's State of the Internet. Q1 2016 Report, vol. 9, No.1, Cambridge, June 2016.The region also faces gaps regarding the provision of basic drinking water and sanitation infrastructure -both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Population in LA without at least basic access to improved water sources in 2015 was 3.8%, equivalent to 23.6 million people. In turn, the coverage gap of sanitation facilities in the same year was 14.4%, meaning that 89.4 million people lacked access to this quality of service.As in the case of electricity, coverage and access to water and sanitation services in LA countries varies in areas of population settlement with different demographic and socio-economic characteristics. In other words, disparities are amplified in the comparison between rural and urban areas, and among income groups. Sanitation coverage, for instance, is broader among households in the highest income quintile than in the lowest quintile (see chart 9); besides, the gap is wider in rural areas than in cities, indicating a differential of coverage significantly higher than in other regions of the world.Figure 9Latin America and the Caribbean (17 countries): differences in sani