康奈尔酒店经营分析.pdf
CHR TOOLS FOR THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY,NO.4The Center for Hospitality Research AT CORNELL UNIVERSITYby Jan A.deRoos,Ph.D.HVS International Professor of Hotel Finance and Real EstateSchool of Hotel Administration at Cornell University and Stephen Rushmore,CRE,MAI,CHAFounder and PresidentHVS InternationalHospitality Valuation Software 2nd editionOperating and Use GuideVersion 2.5 TheCenterforHospitalityResearch.org HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE Copyright 2004 By Hospitality Valuation Software,Inc.This use guide is provided“as is”without warranty of any kind,either express or implied,respecting the contents of this guide,including but not limited to implied warranties for the guides quality,performance,merchantability,or fitness for any particular purpose.Hotel Valuation Software,Inc.shall not be liable to the purchaser or any other person or entity with respect to any liability,loss,or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by this guide.As a freely downloadable tool,the authors,Hotel Valuation Software,Inc.,the Center for Hospitality Research and the School of Hotel Administration will not provide any type of software support as part of the distribution of the software and the use guide.HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE i i Table of Contents Copyright and Support Notice Inside Front Cover Table of Contents i Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software 1 Room Night Analysis 1 Fixed and Variable Income and Expense Forecasting Model 2 Hotel Capitalization Software 2 Authoritative Text 2 Instruction Manual 2 Important Technical Information 3 The Software is Not Supported 3 Trademark Acknowledgements 4 Acknowledgements 4 About the Authors 5 Case Study Overview 6 The Process of Performing a Hotel Market Study and Valuation 8 Market Study 9 Room Night Defined 9 Market Study Procedure 9 Built-Up Approach Based on Analysis of Lodging Activity 10 Use of the Primary Sheet of the RNA Program 15 Proper Data Entry for an Existing Subject Hotel 16 Use of the Secondary Sheet of the RNA Program 17 Use of the Demand-Base Year Sheet of the RNA Program 19 Fair Share and Market Penetration Defined 20 Quantifying Latent Demand 21 Unaccommodated Demand Defined 21 HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE ii ii Market Study,continued Induced Demand Defined 21 Use of the Demand Inputs Sheet 25 Growth Rates of Accommodated and Unaccommodated Demand 25 The Demand Calcs Sheet,Unadjusted for Unaccommodatable 27 Demand Total Guestroom Supply 28 Total Room Nights Available 28 Accommodatable Latent Demand 28 Total Usable Latent Demand 29 Use of the Supply Addn Sheet 29 Long Term Supply Growth 31 Proper Data Entry for a Proposed Hotel 31 Allocating Unaccommodatable Demand 33 Penetration Calculations 35 Market Rationale 38 Use of the Mkt.Pen Sheet of the RNA Program 43 Fair Share Calculations 47 Market Share Adjusters and Market Share Percentages 47 Room Nights Captured 47 Percentage of Occupancy 47 Fair Share Sheet 48 Market Share Adjusters 49 Market Share Percentages 50 Room Nights Captured 51 Total Room Nights Captured 52 Occupancy Calculations 53 Use of the Final Output Sheet 54 Printing from the RNA Program 55 HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE iii iii Forecast of Revenue and Expense 58 Rooms Revenue 58 Fixed and Variable Component Approach to Forecasting 59 Fixed and Variable Theory 59 Fixed and Variable Implementation 60 Fixed and Variable Income and Expense Forecasting Model 67 Use of the Inputs Sheet 68 Project Information and Base Year Room Inputs 68 Revenue and Expense Inputs 69 Important Note 70 Fixed and Variable Component Inputs 71 Entering Inflation Estimates 72 Occupancy and Average Rate Inputs 73 Output Sheet form the FIXVAR Program 74 Printing in the FIXVAR Program 76 Modifying the Formulas in the Output Sheet 77 Valuation 79 Income Capitalization Approach 79 Hotel Capitalization Software Program(HCS)83 The Input Sheet of the HCS Program 84 The Calcs Sheet of the HCS Program 87 The Output Sheet of the HCS Program 87 Printing in the HCS Program 90 Conclusion 91 Software License Agreement 92 Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE 1 1 Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software The Hospitality Valuation Software remains the only non-proprietary computer software designed specifically to assist in the preparation of market studies,forecasts of income and expense,and valuations for lodging property.The software provides an accurate,consistent,and cost-effective way for appraisers and consultants to implement computer-based forecasts and valuations.Using established methodology,the Hospitality Valuation Software is a sophisticated tool for lodging professionals.The tool consists of three separate software programs written as Microsoft Excel files and a software manual written as an Adobe PDF file.They require an IBM-PC compatible personal computer capable of running Microsoft Windows 95 and Microsoft Office 97(or later versions of the operating system and office suite)and Adobe Acrobat Reader or Adobe Acrobat.All output is formatted for a standard laser printer using 8 by 11-inch paper.The programs and their contents are outlined below.The Room Night Analysis program performs several functions:Enables the appraiser to evaluate the various competitive factors such as occupancy,average room rate,and market segmentation of all hotels in a local market.Calculates the area-wide occupancy and average room rate,as well as the competitive market mix.Produce a forecast of occupancy for each existing hotel or proposed hotel in a local market.The program incorporates such factors as competitive occupancies,market segmentation,unaccommodated demand,latent demand,growth of demand,and the relative competitiveness of each property in the local market.The program output is a ten-year projection of occupancy.Room Night Analysis(RNA.XLS)Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE 2 2 The key to any market study and valuation is a supportable forecast of revenues and expenses.Hotel revenue and expenses are comprised of many different components that display certain fixed and variable relationships to each other.This program enables the appraiser to input comparable financial operating data and forecast a complete 11-year income and expense statement by defining a small set of inputs:The expected future occupancy levels for the subject hotel Base year operating data for the subject hotel Expected inflation rates for revenues and expenses A discounted cash flow valuation model utilizing the mortgage-equity technique forms the basis for this program that was developed from the Simultaneous Valuation Formula.Values are produced under two different binding constraints:A loan-to-value ratio,in which the size of the mortgage is based on property value.A debt coverage ratio(also known as a debt-service coverage ratio),in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow.By inputting the terms of typical lodging financing,along with the ten-year forecast of revenue and expense,the program determines the value that provides the stated returns to the mortgage and equity components.The software programs were developed by Jan A,deRoos,Ph.D.,Suzanne Mellen,CRE,MAI,and Stephen Rushmore,MAI,CRE,CHA.They are based on the considerable knowledge and experience of these three leading lodging authorities.Within the text,each program is thoroughly described and illustrated with a case study example.Users of these programs are encouraged to obtain a copy of Hotels and Motels:valuations and market studies,Stephen Rushmore and Erich Baum,2001,Appraisal Institute,as a solid accompaniment to this software and instruction manual.The purpose of this manual is to provide a complete description of the three programs comprising the Hospitality Valuation Software,2nd Edition package and to show how these programs assist in performing a lodging market study and valuation.The manual starts with a general overview of the various steps involved in developing a lodging market study and valuation.It then leads the user through the specific procedures involved with the market study phase,which concentrates on the supply and demand analysis.The Room Night Analysis program(RNA)is described and demonstrated in this section.Once the subject hotels occupancy has been projected,Fixed and Variable Income and Expense Forecasting Model(FIXVAR.XLS)Hotel Capitalization Software(HCS.XLS)Authoritative Text Instruction Manual Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE 3 3 the manual then turns to the task of producing the ten-year forecast of revenue and expense using the Fixed and Variable Forecasting program(FIXVAR).The final step demonstrates the valuation process,which employs a discounted cash flow valuation model known as the Hotel Capitalization Software(HCS).Interwoven throughout the manual is a realistically simulated case study that illustrates how an appraiser can utilize the Hospitality Valuation Software for all types of lodging valuation assignments.We strongly recommend reading this manual thoroughly prior to attempting to use the programs.Try entering the data set forth in the case study so you can understand the logic of the software,and the various analytical features it offers.This Hospitality Valuation Software manual assumes the user has a working knowledge of personal computers and Microsoft Excel.If you are not familiar with the following operations,consult one of the many Microsoft Excel or Microsoft Office instructional books before proceeding:Retrieving and saving a file Operating the cursor Entering data Navigating between sheets of a workbook Printing The user should immediately copy the program files to a secure location on a hard drive for use should they be needed.Each file contains a series of print settings using Excels“Report Manager.”If this feature is not available on your copy of Excel,it can be enabled by checking the“Report Manager”box by going to the Tools,Add-Ins menu in Excel,as detailed on pages 55-56 of this manual.Hospitality Valuation Software is distributed on a non-profit basis as a service to the hospitality appraisal and real estate professions.As a freely downloadable tool,the authors,Hotel Valuation Software,Inc.,the Center for Hospitality Research and the School of Hotel Administration will not provide any type of software support as part of the distribution.If you have a question or problem,please contact the Center for Hospitality Research;the e-mail address is hosp_researchcornell.edu.A one-week seminar covering the use of the software and advanced modeling techniques has been offered each summer through the Professional Development Program at the Cornell University Hotel School.The Professional Development office can be reached at http:/hotelschool.cornell.edu/execed/pdp/or at 607-255-4919.Important Technical Information The Software is Not Supported Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE 4 4 Hospitality Valuation Software is a registered trademark of Hotel Valuation Software,Inc.Windows 95,Excel,and Office 97 are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation.Adobe Acrobat is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.Development of the Hospitality Valuation Software has been an ongoing effort that commenced in the 1970s with the advent of the personal computer and spreadsheet software.The initial design of the software was intended to serve the needs of HVS International,an international appraisal and consulting firm,specializing in the lodging industry.The first edition of the software was released in 1990,and has continued to evolve into a highly sophisticated set of programs.In an effort to further the quality level of lodging market studies and appraisals,the authors have written or co-authored 6 books and over 200 articles on this topic.Opening the computer software to the profession represents a continued attempt to provide state-of-the-art tools and knowledge so that appraisers and analysts can advance their ability to produce top-quality lodging market studies and appraisals.The authors would like to express their sincere thanks to the entire staff of HVS International,and to present and former students of the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University,in particular,Mark Owens,class of 2000.Their contributions in the development and evolution of the Hospitality Valuation Software have been invaluable,and we thank them all.Jan A.deRoos,Ph.D.Stephen Rushmore,CRE,MAI,CHA Trademark Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Introduction to the Hospitality Valuation Software HOSPITALITY VALUATION SOFTWARE 5 5 Jan deRoos,Ph.D.is the HVS International Professor of Hotel Finance and Real Estate at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University.He has dedicated his career to creating and sharing knowledge in the area of hospitality real estate.Areas of teaching expertise include hospitality real estate finance,lodging property valuation,real estate management,hotel planning and design,hotel development and construction,and the timeshare/vacation ownership industry.A frequent speaker on these topics,Dr.deRoos has recently contributed to lodging industry conferences in Singapore,New York,Ft.Lauderdale,and London.He is one of the principal researchers on the Lodging Property Index,a quarterly report on total returns to lodging property.He has authored numerous publications on the topic of lodging valuation,lodging industry supply and demand dynamics,and lodging investment analysis.Stephen Rushmore,CRE,MAI,CHA is founder and president of HVS International,a global hospitality consulting organization with offices in New York(Mineola),San Francisco,Miami,Boulder,Vancouver,Mexico City,So Paulo,London,New Delhi,Singapore,and Toronto.He directs the worldwide operation of this firm and is responsible for future office expansion and new product development.Mr.Rushmore has provided consultation services for more than 8,000 hotels throughout the world during his 30-year career and specializes in complex issues involving hotel feasibility,valuations,and financing.He was one of the creators of the Microtel Concept and was instrumental in its initial public offering.As a leading authority and prolific author on the topic of hotel feasibility studies and appraisals,Mr.Rushmore has written all four textbooks and two seminars for the Appraisal Institute covering the subject.He has also authored three reference books on hotel investing and has published more than 300 articles.He writes a monthly column for Hotels magazine,a quarterly column for the Real Estate Finance Journal,and is widely quoted by major business and professional publications.Mr.Rushmore lectures extensively on hotel trends and has taught hundreds of classes and seminars to more than 20,000 industry professionals.He is an adjunct professor at New York University and is on the faculty
