国际商务英语授课国际商务 (15).pdf

Global Trends and Prospects of foreign direct investment 外国直接投资的外国直接投资的全球趋势和前景全球趋势和前景 由于受新冠疫情影响，2020 年全球的外国直接投资受到严重打击。但中国受益于疫情控制较好和经济发展强劲，2020 年中国吸引外国投资实现正增长，位居世界第二，对外投资位居世界第一，为全球外国直接投资的发展做出了积极的贡献。Global flows of foreign direct investment(FDI)have been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.This is a major concern,because international investment flows are vital for sustainable development of the world economy.1.Global trends of foreign direct investment Global foreign direct investment flows fell by 35 per cent in 2020,to$1 trillion from$1.5 trillion in 2019.This is the lowest level since 2005 and almost 20 per cent lower than the 2009 trough after the global financial crisis.The lockdowns around the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down existing investment projects,and the prospects of a recession led multinational enterprises(MNEs)to reassess new projects.The fall in FDI was significantly sharper than the fall in gross domestic product(GDP)and trade.FDI plummeted in developed and transition economies,falling by 58 per cent in both.It decreased by a more moderate 8 per cent in developing economies,mainly because of resilient flows in Asia(up 4 per cent).As a result,developing economies accounted for two thirds of global FDI,up from just under half in 2019(figure 1).Figure 1.FDI inflows,global and by group of economies,2007-2020(Billions of dollars and per cent)Source:UNCTAD 2.Trends by geography a.FDI inflows FDI flows to developed economies fell by 58 per cent to$312 billion(figure 2).The decline was inflated by strong fluctuations in conduit and intrafirm financial flows,and by corporate reconfigurations.Aggregate inflows in Europe plummeted by 80 per cent,reaching only$73 billion.FDI fell in European countries that have significant conduit flows,but it also dropped in large economies such as the United Kingdom(-57 per cent),France(-47 per cent)and Germany(-34 per cent).Flows to the United States decreased by 40 per cent,to$156 billion,mainly because of a reduction in reinvested earnings.Nevertheless,the country remained the largest recipient of FDI,followed closely by China(figure 3).Flows to Australia halved and those to Japan decreased by 30 per cent.FDI flows to developing economies decreased less steeply,by 8 per cent to$663 billion.FDI flows to China rose by 6 per cent to$149 billion,mainly because of resilient economic growth,investment facilitation efforts and continuing investment liberalization.Developing Asia,already the largest FDI recipient region accounting for more than half of global FDI registered a rise of 4 per cent to$535 billion.FDI in South-East Asia normally an engine of growth for global FDI contracted by 25 per cent to$136 billion,with declines in investment in all the largest recipients,including Singapore(-21 per cent),Indonesia(-22 per cent)and Viet Nam(-2 per cent).The newly signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)became one of the largest FDI recipient groups.Figure 2 FDI inflows,by region,2019-2020(Billions of dollars and per cent)Source:UNCTAD Figure 3 FDI inflows,top 20 host economies,2019 and 2020(Billions of dollars)Source:UNCTAD b.FDI outflows In 2020,MNEs from developed economies reduced their investment abroad by 56 per cent,to$347 billion.As a result,their share in global outward FDI dropped to a record low of 47 per cent.Aggregate outward investment by European MNEs fell by 80 per cent to$74 billion the lowest amount since 1987.This fall was driven by sharp declines in outflows from the Netherlands,Germany,Ireland and the United Kingdom.Outflows from the Netherlands normally among the largest source countries in Europe dropped by$246 billion to-$161 billion,owing to corporate reconfigurations and holding company liquidations.Despite several sizeable acquisitions abroad by German MNEs,large withdrawals of loans(-$55 billion)reduced FDI outflows by 75 per cent.In the United Kingdom,outflows declined from-$6 billion to-$33 billion,with continued large negative reinvested earnings.In addition,MNEs from the United Kingdom divested some of their assets abroad.For example,Tesco sold its stores in Thailand for$9.9 billion and Vodafone unloaded its tower assets in Italy for$5.8 billion.Outflows from the United States remained flat at$93 billion.An increase in flows to Europe was offset by reduced investment in Asia,mainly in Singapore.Investment by Japanese MNEs the largest outward investors in the last two years dropped by half to$116 billion,as large M&A purchases were not repeated in 2020.Figure 4 FDI outflows,top 20 host economies,2019 and 2020(Billions of dollars)Source:UNCTAD The value of investment activity abroad by MNEs from developing economies declined by 7 per cent,reaching$387 billion.Outward FDI from China,despite a 3 per cent decline,remained high at$133 billion,making China the largest investor in the world(figure 4).The value of cross-border M&A purchases by Chinese MNEs doubled,mostly due to financial transactions in Hong Kong,China.Continued expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative also led to resilient FDI outflows amid the pandemic.Outflows from South-East Asia decreased by 16 per cent to$61 billion.Flows from Singapore dropped by 36 per cent,to$32 billion,with most investment going to other countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).In contrast,outward FDI from Thailand more than doubled to$17 billion,mostly in financial services and manufacturing in neighbouring countries.3.Prospects of foreign direct investment Global FDI flows are expected to bottom out in 2021 and recover some lost ground with an increase of 1015 per cent.This would still leave FDI some 25 per cent below the 2019 level and more than 40 per cent below the recent peak in 2016(figure 5).Current forecasts show a further increase in 2022 which,at the upper bound of the projections,could bring FDI back to the 2019 level of$1.5 trillion.The relatively modest recovery in global FDI projected for 2021 reflects lingering uncertainty about access to vaccines,the emergence of virus mutations and delays in the reopening of economic sectors.As FDI tends to trail other macroeconomic indicators after a shock,a full and broad-based recovery in flows to pre-pandemic levels is expected to take longer.This is despite expectations of a boom in capital expenditures by MNEs as a result of a peak in cash holdings and pent-up spending plans.Increased expenditures on both fixed assets(e.g.machinery and equipment)and intangibles will not translate directly into a rapid FDI rebound,as confirmed by the sharp contrast between rosy forecasts for capital expenditures and still depressed greenfield project announcements.Figure 5 Global FDI inflows,2015-2020 and 2021-2022 forecast Source:UNCTAD References:1.World Trade Report 2021,UNCTAD.2.http:/ accessed on July 8,2021.3.http:/ accessed on July 8,2021.4.https:/ accessed on July 8,2021.5.https:/ on July 8,2021.