最新并购定价PPT课件.ppt

并购定价并购定价CONTENTSIntroductiontovaluationDCFvaluationMultiplesvaluation1010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPOVERALLVALUATIONISBASEDONMULTIPLEVALUATIONMETHODOLOGIESANDSCENARIOSDCFvaluationMultiplesvaluationSales(0.4-0.6x)EBIT(10.0-12.0 x)EBITDA(6.5-7.5x)ValuationrangePrecedent transactions(10.0-12.0 x)Downside case*:WACC 6.07.0%Management case*:WACC 6.07.0%1,8009001,5001,4002,1005006001,0007001,1001,400600Terminal growth rate 1.52.5%Terminal growth rate 1.52.5%*Normally,a DCF valuation will be made based on managements own forecasts.The downside case will usually be a less optimistic case1,2001,200The valuation range is based on intervals from the different methodologies and scenarios.To some extent,the range is subjectively selectedEXAMPLE8010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPKEYHISTORICALPARAMETERSCANBEFOUNDINANNUALREPORTSSales-Costofgoodssold(COGS)=Grossprofit-Operatingexpenses=EBIT-interest=Profitbeforetax-tax=NetincomeEBIT+Depreciationandamortization=EBITDA19972000Depending on statement type,depre-ciation and amortization can be“hidden”here.It can usually also be found in the cash flow statementHistorical figures are used as a base to ensure reasonable forecasts199819991,000600400200200201805013020050250(Example)9010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPOTHERPARAMETERSNEEDEDINAVALUATIONPROCESSCANBEFOUNDUSINGVARIOUSSOURCESNecessaryparameterNeededinDCFMultiplesanalysisPossiblesourceForecasts for EBIT for comparable companiesBroker reportsForecasts for EBITDA for comparable companiesBroker reportsForecasts for sales for comparable companiesBroker reportsMarket capitalization/value for comparable companiesBloomberg or Datastream(or share price multiplied by outstanding shares)Book value for comparable companiesBalance sheetsNet debt for comparable companiesLatest balance sheets(homepages or databases)Levered beta for comparable companiesBARRA database(consult with CF&S R&I)Capital structure for comparable companiesCalculated from market capitalization/value and net debtRisk free rateBloomberg has rates on government bondsMarket risk premiumAsk CF&S R&I for current premium(it is 5%at time of writing)Tax rateBloomberg10010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPCONTENTSBeliefs and key learnings about DCFOverview of DCF calculationThe four steps of the DCF processSample DCF calculationDCFvaluationMultiplesvaluationIntroductiontovaluation11010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPOURBELIEFSANDKEYLEARNINGSABOUTDCFTime consumingForecasting operational numbers 5-10 years into the future is very time consuming for most organizationsBasic data is rarely readily availableIdentifying levers/initiatives to drive improvement is difficult and requires deep understanding of businessDo not let the client do the forecasts on their ownGetting client people who know the levers and are analytical is more important than involving people with a deep understanding of the businessBeliefWhyImplicationOpen to manipulationPotential improvement can almost always be documented with reference to best practiceDCF is likely to be at high level so inconsistencies can be hiddenLink between income statement,cash flows and DCF calculation makes it possible to e.g.make conservative EBIT forecast but drive free cash flow up dramatically(and value)Test rigorously for obvious inconsistency,e.g.,test for consistency between personnel numbers and salary costs Ensure that forecasts are linked to historical performanceComplement DCF with explicit assumptions(e.g.price development,market size)Ensure all parties(e.g.buyers,sellers,merger-partners)agree on format(e.g.forecasts should be comparable)before developing forecastDiscloses managements beliefs and business focusManagement is forced to quantify improvement programs Forecast will show how management thinks about the market,levers for building the business and in which areas improvements can be achievedBuild forecast and management presentation simultaneouslyUse workshops to identify levers and broad initiatives;quantify afterwards12010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPOVERVIEWOFTHEDCFCALCULATIONNet debtEquity valueFor every year in the forecast period,the free cash flow is calculated and discounted back to the time of valuationThe last year of the forecast period should be a”normalized”year with stable cash flow elements,e.g.EBIT,CAPEX,etc.WACC=XX%AVThe terminal growth rate is used to grow the free cash flow in the last year of the forecast period into perpetuityFree cash flow is discounted at WACCAV is the net present value of future free cash flows01234Terminal growth rate=XX%The last year of the forecast period is also used as the basis for the calculation of terminal valueTerminal value+13010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPTHEDCFPROCESCONSISTSOF4STEPSDiscountingcashflowsForecastFreecashflowcalculationWACCcalculationandterminalvalue+14010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPBUILDINGTHEBASICSFORABULLETPROOFFORECASTHistorical developments for all elements of the forecasts(e.g.cost of goods sold,personnel costs)are required to demonstrate that the starting point is realisticForecasts need to be tested with key managers in a format they can relate toUse budget values for year 1 if at all possible as this normally has good supporting data and action plansKey parameters in the forecast(e.g.EBIT)should line up with published figures to reduce suspicions of manipulation and allow for consistency checksAnchorforecasttoknowndefinitionsandreportingformatsIdentify 5-10 levers that will drive EBITQuantify impact of specific improvements for each lever over the full DCF period based on historical evidence or best practice within the industryDevelop short profiles of programs to drive improvements for each leverIdentifykeyleverstodriveimprovementsWork through each lever and discuss size of improvement Review ways of documenting that improvement is achievableDiscuss how to present improvement,in particular what level of detail is required to describe improvement programTestimprovementswithmanagement15010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPExpand number of storesRemodel storesImprove sales per customerAssortment developmentAllocation of spaceExecution of in-store promotionsStock-out reductionEtc.Increase number of customers per storeMarketingPricingNew assortments/servicesEtc.2001Better space allocationEXAMPLE:FORECASTINGREVENUESFORARETAILER2005EUR millionsPotentialleverstodriverevenuesNew storesMarket growthRevenueforecastChosen leversForecast can be broken down by lever and impact from each lever is backed by previous results and/or references to best practice16010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPSAMPLEINCOMESTATEMENTFORECASTEUR millionsSales-COGS=Grossprofit-Operatingexpenses=EBIT-interest=Profitbeforetax-tax=NetincomeEBIT+Depreciationandamortization=EBITDA20062007200820092010200120022003200420054,555.64,722.24,888.95,055.65,222.23,458.03,560.33,830.34,108.34,399.33,335.43,458.33,579.23,700.03,820.82,558.22,628.42,818.73,014.23,222.31,220.11,263.91,309.71,355.61,401.4899.8931.91,011.71,094.21,177.01,111.81,152.81,193.11,233.31,273.6852.7876.1939.61,004.71,074.1108.3111.1116.7122.2127.847.155.872.189.4102.96.15.65.65.65.612.411.811.29.36.6102.2105.6111.1116.7122.234.744.060.980.196.333.634.436.237.939.614.617.322.427.731.968.671.174.978.882.620.126.738.552.464.4108.3111.1116.7122.2127.847.155.872.189.4102.960.060.661.162.863.350.155.858.459.459.3168.3171.7177.8185.0191.197.2111.6130.6148.9162.217010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPSAMPLEFREECASHFLOWFORECASTEUR millions-Tax*31%=Unlevered*netincome+Depreciationandamortization(D&A)-Capitalexpenditure-Changeinworkingcapital=Unlevered*freecashflow2005200620072008200920102001200220032004EBIT*Note that in some countries amortization is not tax deductible,i.e.,tax is paid on EBIT+amortization*Unlevered means regardless of capital structure(note that interest expense is not deducted).Capital structure affects value only through its impact on the WACC102.9108.3111.1116.7122.2127.847.155.872.189.431.933.634.436.237.939.614.617.322.427.771.074.876.780.584.388.232.538.549.861.759.360.060.661.162.863.350.155.858.459.455.055.055.055.055.055.044.483.369.461.77.25.64.44.44.44.42.42.66.76.968.174.277.882.287.792.135.78.432.152.6The free cash flow statement must reflect all cash flow items,including those not reflected in the income statement,e.g.capital expenditure.Tax is calculated on EBIT and D&A is added back.The cash flow effect of working capital is the incremental change from year to year18010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPTHETECHNICALPARAMETERSINTHEDCFANALYSISHAVEASIGNIFICANTIMPACTONVALUECommentsWACCWACCBetaWACC is used to discount the future free cash flows back to the valuation dateWACC should be calculated(example will follow)and depends on market risk,industry risk and capital structureThe beta value is an estimate of the companys volatility compared to the market portfolio(systematic risk)Beta should be calculated based on comparable companies(examples will follow)TerminalvalueTerminal growth rateFree cash flow in the terminal year(last year of the forecast period if the year is normalized)The terminal value usually accounts for more than 50%of the total valueThe terminal growth rate is the rate at which the free cash flow after the forecast period grows every year in perpetuityThe free cash flow in the terminal year forms the basis of the terminal value and should be realistic and obtainable in the forecast periodThe free cash flow should be normalized with stable operating parameters,e.g.EBIT,CAPEX,etc.Numbertobecalculatedorestimated19010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPWEIGHTEDAVERAGECOSTOFCAPITAL(WACC)CALCULATIONWACCCost of equityMarket valueAggregate value*x+Cost of debtNet debtAggregate value*xRisk free rate=Rate on government bond,e.g.10-year bondMarket risk premium=Premium that the investor requires to invest in the market portfolio instead of a risk free investment.The figure is a constant.*Aggregate value=market value+net debtCostofequityRisk free rate+Market risk premiumRelevered betax=CostofdebtBorrowing ratex(1-tax rate)=20010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPSAMPLECALCULATIONOFWACCAssumptionsRisk free rate:Market risk premium:Relevered beta:Market value:Aggregate value*:Borrowing rate*:Tax rate:5.12%5.00%0.504,8366,6365.12%30.0%CalculationsCost of equity x weight(5.12%+5.00%x 0.50)x=7.62%x 0.73=5.55%4,8366,636Borrowing rate x(1-tax rate)x weight5.12%x(1-0.3)x1,8006,636=3.58%x 0.27=0.97%5.55%0.97%WACC6.52%*Aggregate value=market value+net debt=4,836+1,800=6,636*A risk premium may have to be added.Check with CF&S R&INet debt:1,80021010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPADCFVALUERANGEISCALCULATEDFROMTHEFORECASTEDFREECASHFLOWSCalculations should be made in a model in ExcelA good output sheet in Excel contains DCF ranges and control-parameters for sanity checks+22010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPDCFCALCULATIONSAMPLE2281,214WACC=7%1,442Sep.30,20012001200220032004Terminal growth rate=2%201035.78.432.152.692.1In this example the valuation is at Sep.30,2001 which means that only 25%of the free cash flow in 2001 should be included*Refer to appendix for further explanation1,943Terminal value23010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPSAMPLEDCFSPREADSHEETOUTPUTRefer to appendix to see the underlying calculationsValues should be calculated for a range of WACCs and terminal growth ratesAggregate value is the sum of the present value of the free cash flows and the present value of the terminal valueTo get Equity value,Net debt is subtracted from Aggregate valueTerminal value should be reasonable compared to EBITDA in the last year of the forecast periodTerminal value of total value should be reasonable considering the targets situation24010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPCONTENTSDCFvaluationMultiplesvaluationIdentification of peer group and comparable benchmarksSelection of multiple intervalsCalculation of valuation rangesIntroductiontovaluation25010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPUSINGMULTIPLESVALUATIONISANIMPORTANTPARTOFOVERALLVALUATIONAseparatevaluationmethodMarketperspectiveMultiples valuation is a method in its own right,not just a supplement to DCF analysisMultiples valuation is widely used in the market and by investment banksBased on public informationBased on the current value of publicly traded companies and valuations made in precedent transactions of comparable nature26010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPPEERGROUPANDCOMPARABLEBENCHMARKSSHOULDREFLECTTHEMARKETSVALUATIONIdentificationofpeergroupandcomparablebenchmarksSelectionofmultipleintervalsCalculationofvaluationrangesComparable companies are selected considering:SizeMarket positionOperational effectiveness(best practice)Etc.Benchmarks are selected considering:Actual use in the market when valuing companiesHow to capture effect of future earnings and potential for growth27010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPEXAMPLE:COMPARABLECOMPANIESINTHERETAILSECTORINEUROPE*Estimated 2001Source:Broker reports,BloombergEUR millionsCompanyCasinoDelhaize-Le LionIceland GroupWM MorrisonSafeway plc.SainsburySomerfieldTescoCarrefourAholdEBIT*7651,2663423726411,079512,0892,8772,966EBITDA*1,1931,8704865199121,7911672,8965,1774,457MarketCap9,0623,0478764,4144,96811,50478028,11645,79327,062Floorspace(m2)*4,062,0004,170,000338,133351,540939,715522,3811,074,1501,983,7616,569,0005,585,968Sales*21,41021,0339,1116,06613,56528,7557,56836,48774,63761,70128010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPMULTIPLEINTERVALSFORTARGETARESELECTEDBASEDONTHEPEERGROUPSMULTIPLESIntervals are selected based on:Average,median and distribution of peer groups multiplesLikely multiple interval for target relative to peer groupThe selection of intervals is subjective to some extentIdentificationofpeergroupandcomparablebenchmarksSelectionofmultipleintervalsCalculationofvaluationranges29010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPEXAMPLEOFSELECTEDMULTIPLEINTERVALS Source:Team analysisCompanyCasinoDelhaize-Le LionIceland GroupWM MorrisonSafeway plc.SainsburySomerfieldTescoCarrefourMinimumMaximumAverageMedianSelectedinterval(x)AholdAV/1.000m23.11.33.412.67.426.00.915.98.30.926.08.57.02.54.06.5AV/sales0.580.250.130.730.510.470.120.860.730.120.860.500.550.400.600.59AV/EBIT16.34.23.311.910.812.618.215.119.03.319.012.412.510.012.012.3AV/EBITDA10.52.92.48.67.67.65.510.910.52.410.97.57.96.57.58.2The selection of multiple intervals depends on the target and its position relative to peer group.The interval does not necessarily have to be around the average/median of peer group30010420_Valuation_Beginners_Guide_FCP007CPSAMPLEPRECEDENTTRANSACTIONS Source:Bloomberg,team analysisTargetEBITDAmultipleAcquirorYearPromodesCarrefour200017.9Comptoirs Modernes SACarrefour199810.2ICAAhold199913.5Gruppo GS SpACarrefour200011.1AverageSelectedinterval(x)10.0-12.013.2As with trading multiples,selected range is based on targets relative position.The interval does not necessarily have to be around the average/median of