财务分析与证券定价(英文)chapter11(34页PPT).pptx
Chapter11TheAnalysisofProfitabilityLinksWhatyouwilllearnfromthischapterHowreturnoncommonequity(ROCE)isbrokendownintoitsdriversHowfinancialleverageaffectsshareholderprofitabilityHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectstheprofitabilityofoperationsThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)HowprofitmarginsandassetturnoversdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysisisusedtoask“whatif”questionsinsensitivityanalysisTheFocus:Accounting-BasedValuationThetaskistodeterminepremiumsoverbookvalue(orequivalently,theP/Bratio)WhatwillfutureROCEbe?Whatwillbethegrowthinthefuture?Pointofdeparture:CurrentROCEandgrowthHowwillfutureROCEandgrowthbedifferentfromcurrentROCE?ThischapteranalyzescurrentprofitabilityThenextchapteranalyzesgrowthForecastingandtheAnalysisofCurrentProfitability1.Establishthepresent:Analysisofprofitability(inthischapter)Determinethecurrentprofitability(ROCE)andthefactorsthatinfluencetheprofitability2.Determinetransitionfrompresenttofuture:Projectingfutureprofitability(inPartIII)DeterminefactorsthatinfluencefutureprofitabilityanddescribehowthefuturewillbedifferentfromthepresentThesecorrespondtosteps2and3offundamentalanalysisThereformulationofthebalancesheetandincomestatementhasputthemintoaformtocarryoutstep2andtousethemtoforecastthefutureinstep3CuttingtotheCore:ROCEDriversROCEisdecomposedintodriversoverthreelevelsofanalysis:1.EffectsofLeverage1.AnalysisofOperatingProfitability1.AnalysisofNetBorrowingCostsDuetoformattingrestrictions,pleasemanuallyreplacethispagewithhardcopyofslidefromfile:windows nameanalys1.ppt dos nameFirst-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofEffectsofFinancialLeverage(FLEV)So,ROCEisaweightedreturntooperatingactivitiesandfinancingactivities:or,RNOA=OI(Aftertax)/NOA(ReturnonNetOperatingAssets)FLEV=NFO/CSE(FinancialLeverage)NBC=NFE(aftertax)/NFO(NetBorrowingCost)SPREAD=RNOANBC(OperatingSpread)SpreadHowFinancialLeverageExplainstheDifferenceBetweenROCEandRNOAFinancialLeverage:GeneralMills,Inc.GeneralMills,alargemanufacturerofpackagedfoods,hashadconsiderablestockrepurchasesovertheyears.Attheendoffiscal1998commonshareholderequitywasonly$190.2milliononnetoperatingassetsof$2.251billion.Itsfinancialleveragewasahuge5.745,basedonaveragebalancesheetamounts.ThefirmsROCEfor1998was121.6%.Furtheranalysisrevealsthatthisveryhighnumberisdrivenbythehighleverage:ROCE=RNOA+FLEVx(RNOANBC)121.6%=21.6%+5.745x(21.6%4.2%)ROCEcanexaggerateunderlyingoperationalprofitability:RNOAis21.6%butthehighfinancialleverage,combinedwithaSPREADoveraborrowingcostof4.2%,yieldsamuchhigherROCE.BewareoffirmsboastinghighROCE:isitdrivenbyfinancialleverage?AWhat-IfQuestion:WhatiftheRNOAatGeneralMillsfellto3%?WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?TheansweristhattheROCEwouldfallto-3.9%:-3.9%=3.0%+5.745x(3.0%4.2%)TheunfavorableleveragewouldproduceanegativeROCEonapositiveRNOA.MicrosoftCorphasbeenveryprofitable.Forfiscal1998thefirmreportedanROCEof36.3%onaveragecommonequityof$13.702billion.ButMicrosofthadnofinancingdebtotherthan$980millionofconvertiblepreferredstock.Andithadconsiderablefinancialassetsof$11.447billionfromcashgeneratedfromitsoperations.Thereturnonaveragenetfinancialassetswas8.0%(asignificantportionfromunrealizedgainsonfinancialassets).ThereportedROCEmaskstheprofitabilityofoperations:TheRNOAof179.4%isweighteddownbyreturnonfinancingactivitiesintheoverallROCE.AWhat-IfQuestion:Microsofthasregularstockrepurchases.Infiscal1998thecompanyused$2.796billionofitsfinancialassetstorepurchasestock.WhatwouldtheROCEhavebeenhaditnotundertakenthestockrepurchase?Theanswer:With$2.796billionmoreinaveragefinancialassetsandcommonequity,theNFAtoCSEratiowouldhavebeen0.863ratherthan0.835,andtheROCEwouldhavebeen:31.5%=179.4%0.863x(179.4%8.0%)Stockrepurchases(anddividends)increaseROCE.FinancialLeverage:Microsoft,Corp.TheEffectsofOperatingLiabilityLeverage(OLLEV)OperatingliabilitieslevertheReturnonNetOperatingAssetsWhatwouldbetheoperatingprofitabilitywithoutoperatingliabilities?whereImplicitInterestonOperatingLiabilities=Short-termBorrowingRatexOperatingLiabilitiesTheEffectofOLLEV:whereRNOA=ROOA+(OLLEVxOLSPREAD)OperatingLiabilityLeverage:GeneralMills,Inc.GeneralMillshadaveragenetoperatingassetsof$2.310billionduringfiscal1998ofwhich$1.159billionwereinoperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxesandpensionliabilities.Thusitsoperatingliabilityleverageratiowas0.50.Itsborrowingrateonitsshort-termnotespayablewas5.4%,or3.4%aftertax.Itreportedoperatingincomeof$499.6million,butapplyingtheafter-taxshort-termborrowingratetooperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxandpensionliabilities,thisoperatingincomeincludesimplicitafter-taxinterestchargesof$39.4million.So,Theeffectofoperatingliabilityleverageisfavorable:AWhat-IfQuestion:What-ifsuppliersweretochargetheshort-termborrowingrateof5.4%explicitlyforthecreditinaccountspayable.WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?Theanswer:Probablynoeffect.Theinterestwouldbeanadditionalexpense.But,tostaycompetitive,thesupplierwouldhavetoreducepricesofgoodssoldtothefirmbyacorrespondingamountsothatthetotalpricecharged(inimplicitplusexplicitinterest)remainsthesame.Butsuppliermarketsmaynotworkasefficientlyasthissupposes,sofirmscanexploitoperatingliabilityleverage.ReturnonNetOperatingAssetsandReturnonAssetsProblemswithROA:FinancialassetsindenominatorFinancialincomeinnumeratorOperatingliabilitiesnotindenominatorNetincomeisnotcomprehensiveincomeMedianROAis7.0%MedianRNOAis10.3%RNOAandROAforSelectedFirms,1996FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatiosProblemswithDebt-to-Equityratio:Excludesfinancialassets(whicheffectivelydefeasedebt)IncludesoperatingliabilitiesMedianDebt-to-Equityis1.17MedianFLEVis0.40ReformulatedFinancialStatements:Nike,Inc.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholdersEquityNike,Inc.1Cashandcashequivalentsaresplitbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Someaccountspayableareinterestbearingbutthiscannotbediscovered.3Otherliabilitiesareprimarilylong-termdeferredendorsementpaymentsforpromotions.4Notespayableareinterestbearing.5Preferredstockislessthan$0.5million.ReformulatedBalanceSheetsNike,Inc.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Includedin“otherexpense”inincomestatement.Thenonrecurringchangesin1995and1994relatetoshutdownofcertainfacilities.3Marginaltaxratewas38.5%,38.5%and39.1%in1996,1995and1994,respectively.ReformulatedIncomeStatementsReformulatedFinancialStatements:ReebokInternational,Ltd.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholdersEquityReebokInternational,Ltd.1Cashandcashequivalentsdividedbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Excludesdividendspayablewhichisincludedinstockholdersequity.ReformulatedBalanceSheetsReebokInternational,Ltd.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Thechangein1995isduetoconsolidationandstreamliningoffacilitiesandtothesaleoftheAviasubsidiary.3Marginaltaxratewas35.4%,36.2%and36.9%for1996,1995and1994,respectively.ReformulatedIncomeStatementsFirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:Nike,Inc.andReebokIntl,Ltd.1.Operatingprofitmargin:Theprofitabilityofeachdollarofsales2.Assetturnover:Theabilitytogeneratesalesforagivenassetbase3.EffectoffinancialleverageSecond-LevelBreakdownofROCE:DriversofOperatingProfitabilityProfitMarginandAssetTurnoverCombinationsfor238Industries,1963-961234567Asset TurnoverTypicalLevelsforROCE,FLEV,OLLEV,RNOA,PMandATOSource:Standard&PoorsCOMPUSTATThird-LevelBreakdownofROCE:ProfitMarginDriversPM=SalesPM+OtheroperatingincomePMby product or line of businessbenefitor expense?GM=SalesCostofSalesThird-LevelBreakdownofROCE:AssetTurnoverDriversSometimesothermeasuresareused:DaysinAcc.Receivable=Acc.Receivable/Avg.SalesperdayInventoryTurnover=CostofSales/Avg.InventoriesAcc.PayableTurnover=Purchases/Avg.Acc.PayableThird-LevelBreakdown:Nike,Inc.andReebokIntl,Ltd.What-IfQuestions:Nike,Inc.andReebokIntl,LtdThird-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofNetBorrowingCostAnalysisofNetBorrowingCost:Nike,Inc.TheAnalystsChecklistYoushouldbeabletodothefollowingafterreadingthischapter:CalculateratiosthatdriveROCEDemonstratehowratioscombinetoyieldtheROCEPerformacompleteprofitabilityanalysisonreformulatedfinancialstatementsPrepareaspreadsheetprogrambasedonthedesigninthischapterAnswer“What-If”questionsaboutafirmusingtheanalysisinthischapterYoushouldunderstandthefollowingfromthischapter:HowratiosaggregatetoexplainReturnonCommonEquity(ROCE)HoweconomicfactorsdetermineratiosHowfinancialleverageaffectsROCEHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectsROCEThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)Howprofitmargins,assetturnoversandtheircompositeratiosdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysiscanbeusedtoaskpenetratingquestionsregardingthefirmsactivities1、每一个成功者都有一个开始。勇于开始，才能找到成功的路。11月-2211月-22Monday,November 7,20222、成功源于不懈的努力，人生最大的敌人是自己怯懦。14:31:3014:31:3014:3111/7/2022 2:31:30 PM3、每天只看目标，别老想障碍。11月-2214:31:3014:31Nov-2207-Nov-224、宁愿辛苦一阵子，不要辛苦一辈子。14:31:3014:31:3014:31Monday,November 7,20225、积极向上的心态，是成功者的最基本要素。11月-2211月-2214:31:3114:31:31November 7,20226、生活总会给你另一个机会，这个机会叫明天。07 十一月 20222:31:31 下午14:31:3111月-227、人生就像骑单车，想保持平衡就得往前走。十一月 222:31 下午11月-2214:31November 7,20228、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。2022/11/7 14:31:3114:31:3107 November 20229、我们必须在失败中寻找胜利，在绝望中寻求希望。2:31:31 下午2:31 下午14:31:3111月-2210、一个人的梦想也许不值钱，但一个人的努力很值钱。11/7/2022 2:31:31 PM14:31:3107-11月-2211、在真实的生命里，每桩伟业都由信心开始，并由信心跨出第一步。11/7/2022 2:31 PM11/7/2022 2:31 PM11月-2211月-22谢谢大家谢谢大家
