日常消费行业零研月报：1~2月整体各品类表现分化饮料复苏而食品承压.docx

Ok CICC中金公司目录评论完整版4乳制品7速冻米面食品9速冻火锅料食品10肉制品11酱油12复合调味品13白酒14啤酒16方便食品17包装水18茶饮料19果汁饮料20碳酸饮料21坚果炒货22面包23附录1：数据统计方法说明24数据范围24监测样本和抽样原理24全国数据推算方法24图表图表1：酒类可比公司估值表5图表2:非酒类可比公司估值表6图表3: 1-2月行业销售额同比微增，液态奶增速明显优于行业整体7图表4: 1.2月各品牌表现略有分化，蒙牛、光明表现较好，低温鲜奶增速亮眼 7图表5: 2021年1.2月奶粉品牌中伊利、圣元、雅士利、菲仕兰、达能、君乐宝市占率同比上升（销售额）8图表6: 1-2月行业销售额受高基数影响增速承压，速冻汤圆表现好于行业整体 9图表7: 1.2月各品牌因高基数表现承压，思念表现略好于行业 9图表8: 2021年1-2月思念、三全、安井市占率同比提升，湾仔码头市占率同比下降（销售额）9图表9: 1-2月行业销售额高基数下仍实现同比中高个位数增长 10图表10:1.2月安井、三全、海霸王销售额保持高增长 10图表11: 2021年1-2月安井、海霸王、三全市占率同比提升（销售额）10图表12: 1.2月行业高基数下销售额同比双位数下滑，各品牌增长压力均较大 11图表13: 2021年1-2月双汇、雨润市占率同比下降（销售额）11图表14: 1-2月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，千禾继续保持高增趋势 12图表15: 2021年1-2月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）12图表16: 12月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，海底捞表现好于行业整体 13图表17: 2021年1-2月海底捞市占率同比提升（销售额）13图表18: 1-2月行业销售额同比微跌，国窖1573、青花汾酒增速表现亮眼14图表19: 1.2月各品牌销售额表现分化，五粮液、洋河、剑南春、郎酒、水井坊、口子窖表现优于行业整体 14图表20: 2021年1-2月五粮液、洋河、剑南春、郎酒、口子窖、水井坊市占率同比提升（销售额）15图表21: 1-2月行业销售额同比跌幅收窄，各品牌增速分化明显，惠泉、乌苏、喜力表现亮眼 16图表22: 2021年1.2月青岛、百威、燕京、嘉士伯、喜力市占率同比提升（销售额）16肉制品单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/公斤图表12:1-2月行业高基数下销售额同比双位数下滑，各品牌增长压力均较大历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年2月当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年1月2020年12月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超肉制品销售额459,712.7-8.4%26.5%823,212.21 -19.6%-30.8%1.1%0.2%3.3%23.2%48.5%12.4%10.8%8.2%4.1%销售量102,411.4-21.9%20.2%187,578.11-25.4%-29.9%-2.3%-3.9%0.5%23.1%53.6%8.8%6.7%4.5%2.5%单位均价44.917.3%5.2%43.98.0%-1.2%3.5%4.2%2.8%0.0%-3.3%3.2%3.9%3.6%1.5%其中（销售额）： 双汇146,380.4-30.1%13.6%275,214.91-28"%-27.0%-2.9%-2.0%4.1%29.3%67.3%11.4%7.2%6.2%7.2%雨润24,134.7-12.4%48.9%40,340.31-31.E%-48.3%-11.9%-13.0%6.3%34.0%45.9%7.7%3.5%1.6%2.5%金锣48,447.5-15.0%20.2%88,763.51 -19.B%-24.0%5.0%5.6%12.3%35.3%63.8%12.3%2.2%-2.7%-2.5%得利斯12,000.9-4.7%41.8%20,466.5-19.6%-34.6%26.0%9.6%-1.4%49.0%73.0%12.6%22.0%19.3%2.6%Smithfield1,936.2-17.7%-7.3%4,025.01-21.fi%-25.3%-21.7%-12.4%9.2%67.3%42.4%23.7%17.5%-12.2%-4.2%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表13:2021年月双汇、雨润市占率同比下降（销售额）年初累计数据 上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部酱油单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表14:1-2月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，千禾继续保持高增趋势2021年2月2021年2月环比 年初累计历史同比增速1同比2021年1月2020年12月全国商超酱油销隹额销售量 单位均价中天邦加江锦和大巢事古天其海厨加珠李欣淘雀味东千鲜月 桥记六152,114.2-5.8%-11.6%104,055.4-1.8%-16.0%7.3-4.1%5.2%54,326.5-12.8%-7.1%14,988.4-11.2%-15.9%4,192.1-24.1%-9.0%45.2-56.4%-62.3%17,913.2-6.7%-1.8%8,635.0-13.0%-13.3%121.1-23.2%-10.9%450.8-19.8%7.6%4,621.0-13.9%0.7%4,383.8-17.9%-17.2%13,126.650.4%-13.7%当月同比324,205.8227,874.97.111.7% -7.8% 0-4.3%112,789.116.2%32,814.716.0%8,798.61129.5%165.11440.9%36,160.515.4%18,596.221.6%257.0 -9.3%869.71132.4%9,209.418.7%9,677.8117.3%28,333.535.5%-16.4%-3.3%-12.3%-0.8%-4.7%-2.5%-19.1%-3.4%-19.7%-0.1%-33.7%-15.8%-31.7%-41.3%-22.5%-4.8%-27.8%-12.7%8.2%-2.7%-42.2%-9.2%-23.0%-4.8%-16.8%-8.2%-3.9%1.2%14.8%20.0%5.7%7.3%9.4%9.1%-1.8%3.0%14.5%17.3%5.2%6.7%8.1%7.5%-2.1%-1.8%0.3%2.3%0.5%0.6%1.2%1.5%历史同比增速228%5.1%21.6%26.3%5.7%5.3%7.1%9.4%-2.8%4.2%12.7%19.0%3.8%7.0%10.6%5.9%-14.2%-2.2%9.0%19.3%-5.4%-9.8%-3.6%4.2%-47.5%-44.2%-16.6%2.2%1.3%94.4%42.7%97.9%-5.9%-3.7%8.4%16.3%1.7%5.7%7.1%9.2%-12.5%-11.9%2.0%10.5%1.1%10.1%16.0%13.1%-24.9%-45.4%-32.0%-40.0%-36.2%-38.6%-35.1%-38.1%-11.8%-17.4%-4.8%-2.6%-16.2%-12.0%-7.4%2.3%-6.3%-6.7%12.5%23.5%11.9%16.0%12.9%1.0%-15.7%-3.5%4.6%20.5%13.4%11.8%17.0%8.1%25.0%31.8%51.6%34.0%35.8%46.9%46.4%48.5%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表15: 2021年1-2月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表15: 2021年1-2月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）6 6 6 6 6 G 6 6 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 9 9 0505050504 3 3 2 2 1 16 6 6 6 6 G 6 6 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 9 9 0505050504 3 3 2 2 1 1二昼长卜S年初累计数据 上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部复合调味品单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表16:1-2月行业销售额高基数下增长压力较大，海底捞表现好于行业整体历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年2月当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年1月2020年12月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超复合调味品销售额118,524.5-21.9%7.8%228,425.4-16.8%5.3%3.7%12.5%37.8%67.0%10.1%19.6%15.1%8.2%销售量29,620.820.0-21.7%-0.1%59,269.1-14.3%3.3%0.0%6.2%19.5%48.8%7.6%13.1%12.0%7.5%单位均价其中（销售额）：-0.3%7.9%19.3-1.6M-2.9%2.0%3.7%6.0%15.3%12.2%2.3%5.7%2.8%0.7%海底捞30,910.0-3.3%10.8%58,802.8-19.5%9.6%11.7%31.8%84.0%95.7%32.5%64.4%46.7%25.8%天味 红997,765.5-28.8%17.8%14,358.72,117.21-24.7%1-19.2%0.4%0.5%24.0%73.7%108.0%22.5%45.1%46.1%33.2%1,072.5-42.1%2.7%1-38.2%|-33.5%-2.7%-1.4%4.4%29.7%59.6%-10.3%11.7%4.2%-2.7%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表17:2021年1-2月海底捞市占率同比提升（销售额）年初累计数据上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部白酒单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表18:1-2月行业销售额同比微跌，国窖1573、青花汾酒增速表现亮眼历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年2月当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年1月2020年12月4Q203Q202Q201Q20401930192Q191Q19全国商超白酒销售额680,669.4208.8%33.6%1,190,111.50 -4.4%-50.2%36.4%28.8%3.2%13.5%-19.3%11.0%15.8%11.7%4.6%销售量42,066.738.5%6.3%81,656.5-13.3%-38.0%39.3%24.8%17.1%40.7%-10.6%-3.9%-1.6%-1.5%-4.5%单位均价80.9123.0%25.7%72.9 10.4%-19.8%-2.1%3.2%-11.9%-19.4%-9.7%15.5%17.7%13.4%9.5%主要高端产品53度茅台 销售额83,154.0105.9%-7.3%172,899.6 -17.8%-47.2%45.2%45.3%5.2%57.9%31.4%58.1%51.7%38.9%21.5%销售量214.890.5%-9.5%452.211| -32.9%-57.7%18.3%18.3%-21.3%62.0%34.7%76.3%85.6%33.2%21.7%单位均价1,935.38.1%2.4%1,911.622.5%24.9%22.8%22.8%33.6%-2.5%-2.5%-10.3%-18.3%4.3%-0.1%52度五粮液 销售额80,456.1321.4%17.9%148,692.5J15.0%-38.1%37.4%28.9%-5.1%-18.9%-28.9%12.5%31.8%22.1%3.0%精售量366.5295.2%22.2%666.4 13.7%-39.2%38.5%29.6%-6.4%-26.9%-37.2%-5.2%17.2%17.5%3.8%单位均价1,097.86.6%-3.5%1,115.71.1%1.8%-0.8%-0.6%1.5%10.9%13.1%18.6%12.4%3.9%-0.7%国窖1573 销售额3,675.8913.3%23.1%6,662.8：57.1%-23.0%13.2%53.1%89.0%22.0%-32.6%18.0%0.0%30.0%10.0%销售量21.2927.1%12.3%40.2；51.4%-22.7%14.9%56.0%92.8%20.9%-36.4%8.7%-1.7%29.0%19.9%单位均价865.0-1.3%9.6%829.51 3.8%-0.4%-1.5%-1.8%-2.0%0.9%6.0%8.5%1.7%0.8%-8.2%洋河-梦之蓝 销售额14,474.0514.9%14.8%27,084.817.6%-39.0%101.9%68.0%27.8%11.9%-4.9%55.1%36.2%32.2%16.3%错售量127.3499.1%15.1%237.826.1%-34.0%123.2%85.7%32.5%19.2%-3.3%59.0%32.4%35.1%15.1%单位均价568.72.6%-0.3%569.4 -6.7%-7.7%-9.6%-9.5%-3.5%-6.1%-1.6%-2.4%2.9%-2.2%1.1%山西汾酒-青花销售额3,332.91004.0%90.0%5,087.4! 42.7%-46.2%8.1%7.8%2.9%-20.6%-20.8%44.8%25.1%60.6%19.6%销售量31.9249.7%90.7%48.7：15.8%-49.1%5.0%54.8%27.8%-6.2%-16.3%5.9%-28.7%-7.2%-10.2%单位均价521.7215.6%-0.4%522.423.2%5.6%3.0%-30.3%-19.5%-15.4%-5.4%36.7%75.6%73.1%33.1%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表19:1-2月各品牌销售额表现分化，五粮液、洋河、剑南春、郎酒、水井坊、口子窖表现优于行业整体2021年2月当月2021年2月当月额售销超商国全台窖份酒 酒 司茅液老股汾春 坊窖.十山白绥 公州粮州河西南酒井子白栏小班 各贵五泸洋山剑郎水口老牛江今96,482.6116z196.939,324.568,534.928,287.921,409.07,096.73,918.35,634.81,438.058,466.43,314.14,664.0同比环比年初累计同比104.1%-1.0%193,983.2匚二P26.1%312.3%32.6%203,833.80.3%268.0%31.8%69/65.5； -7.1%351.6%41.2%117,067.8 7.3%237.0%39.1%48,627.9! -6.1%376.0%25.8%38,429.4i 17.4% »137.0%-19.0%15,856.9! 2.8%649.6%38.8%6,741.5W.1%528.2%96.7%8,500.0P/o49.2%1.4%2,856.5匚二-29.0%140.4%36.4%101,325.1 -5.7%-17.8%-12.8%7,113.411-31.6%82.5%44.1%7,900.511-37.0%历史同比增速14Q203Q202Q202021年1月2020年12月-54.7%28.5%27.7%3.0%50.2%-50.0%26.6%20.9%-10.3%-17.8%-53.2%5.8%10.4%6.6%-10.3%-48.3%66.0%48.4%7.0%-2.6%-53.1%43.0%36.7%-1.1%18.0%-39.7%39.9%22.0%-3.5%1.5%-29.6%1.1%26.6%-2.2%-3.2%-47.6%24.2%22.9%-1.7%-8.3%-50.2%114.5%58.1%-24.9%-28.7%-53.6%39.0%26.2%-10.3%6.4%-48.4%10.5%13.8%17.5%36.6%-40.3%15.4%-7.3%-15.5%-9.6%-67.6%57.1%28.8%33.9%20.3%1Q204Q193Q192Q191Q1917.6%59.1%46.1%33.7%11.1%-32.8%7.3%22.4%15.0%-1.4%-32.7%-9.3%2.3%1.0%-1.7%-25.8%9.6%14.0%15.3%9.1%-31.6%7.3%8.2%20.8%15.0%-24.3%9.0%22.9%2.6%10.4%-33.7%-0.3%2.4%-10.9%-16.1%-8.5%63.5%74.2%27.8%-14.5%-45.9%-27.3%-19.3%13.1%29.8%-45.9%-25.7%-15.4%-11.3%-20.9%0.6%6.5%14.7%5.8%14.4%-33.9%-22.8%-14.3%-12.2%7.1%-1.3%59.9%17.8%-8.5%35.0%历史同比增速2资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表20: 2021年1-2月五粮液、洋河、剑南春、郎酒、口子窖、水井坊市占率同比提升（销售额）殳委燃却令>楹鬲IK史Hm年初累计数据 上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部啤酒单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表月行业销售额同比跌幅收窄，各品牌增速分化明显，惠泉、乌苏、喜力表现亮眼历史同比增速1历史同比增速2全国商超啤酒销售额销售量单位均价185,133.548.0%90.3%189,285.142.0%77.7%4.94.2%7.1%282,403.7295,796.14.8I -5.5%-7.2%1.9%其中（销售额）: 华润合计 华润雪花 华润勇闯天涯 华润superx 青岛青岛纯生 青岛奥古特 青岛1903 青岛崂山 吉岛经典 燕京燕乐漓泉 燕京惠泉 白威合计 百威百威Corona 百威福佳白 百威蓝妹 嘉士伯嘉士伯乌苏 嘉士伯1664 嘉士伯大理嘉士伯风花雪月 嘉士伯乐俄 喜力珠江 珠江纯生 珠江零度 金威 哈尔滨 w IX：29,941.532.0%85.6%20,243.9-7.8%82.5%7,986.017.5%107.2%236.2-5.1%46.0%57,061.780.1%129.8%3,700.872.5%128.8%4,219.7177.3%164.2%7,469.4220.9%271.4%6,563.614.0%80.9%7,949.366.1%103.5%14,569.061.4%41.1%1,648.119.2%51.3%111.8233.5%100.6%23,885.344.6%104.6%16,550.046.4%131.4%2,419.936.8%83.0%1,837.931.8%77.8%459.318.4%61.7%9,666.032.9%82.8%4,004.675.9%68.8%3,526.152.2%96.2%326.0-4.3%24.4%30.694.1%153.9%696.4-23.4%76.2%2,133.875.3%121.8%1,970.38.3%47.6%1,209.910.4%58.0%351.13.4%32.1%478.55.8%-3.3%10,878.83.3%61.5%925.612.7%88.2%46,072.731,334.811,840.8398.181,897.55,318.45,816.89,480.510,191.611,855.924,897.12,737.3167.535,562.023,700.63,742.52,871.9743.314,954.06,377.35,323.1588.242.61,091.73,095.73,305.11,975.5616.8973.617,615.51,417.3资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部-8.9%-35.6%-21.1%-21.6%-2.3%1.3%-16.1%4.4%-17.4%8.6%1.8%DI -11.4%-1.4%D -6.7%3.4%-2.8% 01 -10.6%I 2.2% 133.4% 6.3% 0| -12.2% 5.3% | -34.5% 38.1% -12.0% ! -15.1% 0-7.4%7.5%| -19.9%-4.6%-44.0%-42.6%-2.4%-11.3%-9.7%-1.8%-42.1%-10.2%-58.4%-32.5%-53.0%-31.5%-37.4%-7.1%-52.4%-13.7%-47.9%-13.8%-70.5%-8.7%-70.2%2.1%-44.8%-15.0%-36.3%-12.7%-33.0%0.2%-36.2%1.4%19.3%-3.0%-40.3%-13.8%-49.3%-21.7%-28.5%-28.6%-33.8%-5.1%-36.0%9.3%-28.1%1.5%-5.2%40.2%-33.3%-6.3%-20.3%-39.3%-51.3%-47.8%-47.7%-28.1%-6.1%23.3%-31.1%0.8%-37.8%6.6%-18.6%-13.5%9.2%-8.6%-41.3%-21.5%-3.?%-11.9%-12.3%-2.7%12.3%8.5%4.6%3.5%6.3%-13.3%-10.9%-2.5%12.6%12.0%3.1%1.1%5.9%0.0%0.0%-1.7%-0.2%-0.3%-3.2%1.4%2.4%-11.3%-11.6%-0.6%11.4%1.7%6.5%15.3%10.2%-23.9%-10.1%0.9%13.5%2.1%8.2%17.3%14.8%-29.1%-25.4%-11.4%10.5%-7.9%-6.1%4.4%8.5%-16.6%-19.2%-6.9%17.4%-9.2%-16.8%-0.5%-14.8%-16.3%-8.7%2.4%5.8%3.7%1.2%0.0%-18.5%-14.0%-26.2%-19.5%-12.1%-8.4%-2.9%4.5%1.5%-14.7%-28.9%-10.7%2.3%0.5%5.3%-5.4%6.4%2.0%6.1%31.7%46.4%38.4%32.0%13.8%-19.3%-13.5%-4.2%23.6%12.4%13.3%5.4%-9.2%-14.3%-15.6%-7.1%16.0%19.8%17.6%29.5%45.5%-13.6%6.1%21.3%22.5%22.2%4.1%8.9%26.3%-13.3%-17.9%-6.3%-1.0%-5.6%-7.2%9.2%40.1%-20.0%-40.7%-22.3%19.4%-7.7%-58.0%-72.4%-65.2%-13.6%-21.3%-4.3%12.5%-1.1%9.9%2.9%10.9%-19.7%-22.6%-4.2%8.7%-2.0%7.2%-1.6%9.1%-13.6%-23.2%-1.4%19.1%20.5%39.0%16.6%8.9%-3.1%-5.6%22.3%101.6%96.5%67.9%24.2%11.3%14.2%-3.1%-11.6%25.9%-25.1%45.9%106.8%68.5%6.8%13.9%46.4%116.8%85.9%66.7%20.3%11.4%41.6%59.6%168.6%437.7%403.5%265.6%77.0%-8.1%-3.9%-4.1%13.4%78.0%75.6%67.4%34.2%45.1%-27.8%-19.5%17.7%135.4%38.1%41.1%10.2%-28.5%-63.6%-48.1%-34.9%-16.0%37.2%25.0%-28.7%5.5%-21.9%-1.7%12.2%38.8%-5.9%-10.2%-18.2%-8.1%41.5%33.2%-0.5%-19.3%-31.0%-7.9%-12.0%16.0%-2.1%-32.0%-32.6%-19.1%-14.6%5.7%6.4%10.9%7.9%-26.7%-28.9%-11.1%-11.1%8.5%11.1%11.7%-24.1%-50.2%-54.1%-42.1%-31.9%-14.3%2.4%14.6%-6.9%-30.0%-19.3%-10.5%-5.2%-12.8%-6.1%8.4%-19.6%-22.9%-9.5%6.7%-1.0%-5.8%-9.9%1.6%0.3%4.5%60.8%84.3%37.1%20.0%-11.1%-14.6%图表22:2021年1-2月青岛、百威、燕京、嘉士伯、喜力市占率同比提升（销售额）资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部方便食品单位：销售额万元，销售量 吨，单价 元/100g图表2322月行业销售额高基数下同比下滑，非自热品类（米饭、面食等）销售额延续高增长历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年2月当月同比环比年初累计同比2021年1月2020年12月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超方便食品销售额259J60.0-37.8%1.8%514,897.3 )-34.3%-30.4%1.1%-1.0%-1.4%16.3%62.2%11.2%11.8%12.1%10.4%销售量83,876.6-39.3%-5.4%172,573.7 0-34.1%-28.2%1.4%-1.2%-1.2%13.3%55.9%8.9%7.6%8.2%7.5%其中：方便面销售额228,453.1-40.0%-1.4%460,046.3 |-35.7%-30.6%-0.1%-2.8%-4.1%10.9%55.3%6.5%6.9%8.6%7.3%销售量79,100.6-40.5%-7.0%164,128.8 -34.8%-28.4%0.6%-2.1%-2.4%11.1%53.4%7.2%5.8%6.7%6.3%单位均价2.90.8%6.0%2.8-1.3%-3.1%-0.7%-0.7%-1.8%-0.2%1.2%-0.6%1.1%1.8%0.9%自热类销售额29,089.1-19.0%33.6%50,862.5-25.4%-32.4%8.5%12.1%27.9%111.2%196.2%114.4%159.1%165.3%165.8%销售量4,352.8-16.2%31.2%7,671.0 D-21.7%-28.0%15.2%15.7%24.9%95.4%157.1%92.5%107.7%107.6%108.0%单位均价6.7-3.4%1.8%6.6 01-4.6%-6.1%-5.8%-3.1%2.3%8.1%15.2%11.3%24.7%27.8%27.8%非自热品类销售额2,217.8346.0%25.2%348