报废飞机监测：净退役率持续降低.docx

COREEquity Research5 February 2019INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Aerospace & DefensePOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss + 1 212 526 5580 BCI, USMatt Akers, CFA + 1 212 526 9019 BCI, USKate Copouls, CPA + 1 212 526 3283 BCI, US* BARCLAYSParked & Scrapped Aircraft MonitorNet Retirements Continue to Run Low as Park Returns Nearly Offset ScrapsWe track commercial aircraft retirements (parks plus scraps) to estimate replacement demand as part of our supply-demand analysis and to monitor fleet dynamics that affect the aftermarket.Parks 16% lower YOY: We count 1,987 parked commercial aircraft in December, 2% lower from November, and 16% lower YOY including 14% lower for parked narrowbodies, 16% lower for widebodies and 18% lower for regional jets (all YOY). We estimate that 7% of the installed base is now parked, much lower than the last several years as aircraft have continued to return from the park amid fleet growth. Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20 years old) in particular have recently returned from the park and account for 1/2 of the drawdown. Historically, periods that have seen a drawdown in mid-lifeaircraft from storage have correlated with strong aftermarket growth.Fewer parked RR 787s: Parked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issuedin April. We count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% of the fleet),20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by Rolls-Royce.Scraps in line with historical average, forecasting slight increase: We count 673 scrapped commercial aircraft overthe last 12 months, 8% higherfrom the prior 12 months and equivalent to 2.4% of the installed base. We estimate adjusted scraps are running at 2.8% (adjusted higherforexpected scraps reported afterthefact), roughly in line with the historical average. As high levels of aircraft produced in the late 1990s/early 2000s begin to age into retirement, we forecast scraps increasing to 3% (on units) overthe next several years, including widebodies at 3-4% and narrowbodies at 2-3%.Net retirements low: Combining scraps and net parks, we estimate that 300 aircraft have left the active fleet overthe past 12 months, equivalent to just 1.1% of the installed base, including 673 scrapped aircraft offset by 373 aircraft returning from the park. This is much lower compared to the normal 2-4%, primarily driven by aircraft returning from the park. Narrowbody removals are running at 1.3% of installed base, while widebody removals declined to 1.3% this month, both driven by aircraft returning from thepark.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict of interestthat could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors shouldconsiderthisreportasonly a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.FIGURE 21Parked In Production Fleetm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-177379298-6-6%8756%1%1%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747676523%101-34-34%16%22%7675257-5-9%67-15-22%7%9%7777477-3-4%84-10-12%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%A2201100%100%2%3%A320 Family191204-13-6%284-93-33%3%4%A320neoFamily2420420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5%6%6%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50%2%3%Total735747-12-2%837-102-12%3%4%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 92 parked 737 NGs in December, 6% lower from the prior month, but 6% higher from the prioryear.FIGURE 22Historical Parked - 737 NGs120 n100 -80 -60 -40 -76831910590 87 924638 一3i 36 2!FIGURE 23Recent Parked - 737 NGs120-| cc 96 97100 92 go ,°:llll20 znS6 a60京a80京aNo京a二 Ra916 aSEaJa寸Ea26 a98 98 92| I stjo 81,8-s 8T6M 81'm 87un SAPW s,d< S,-SL1. 二忘da.Qaus>0NSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 191 parked A320ceosin December, 6% lower from the prior month, and 33% lower from the prior year.FIGURE 24Historical Parked - A320ceosFIGURE 25Recent Parked - A320ceos300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -180 176 I'1183 185284350n300-250-200 -150-100-50 -284 289 292249.224I 186 154133 1281358E3 ZEa9E3SEa寸EacnE aZEaHa0Ea6?3(ua80京aS>ON 8Z0 8LS-S 8T6n4 s，un( 8工线 8Lda 81-sll 二6 aSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchOf the 735 total parked in-production aircraft, we count 198 (27%) that are 10 years old or younger, including 87 (12%) that are five years or younger. For parked in-production narrowbodies, we estimate 96 (30%) are 10 years old or younger, including 44 (14%) that are five years or younger.250FIGURE 27Age Distribution of Parked In-Production Narrowbodiesuo43onpod£p(D>lBdFIGURE 26Age Distribution of Parked In-Production A/C15010050002468 10 12 14 16 18 20+Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays Research504003o15cumu-at-veSource: Flight Global and Barclays Research0000cumu-at-veParked - by Age ClassWeestimatethat30% of parked aircraft are aged 15 years or younger, equivalent to 593 aircraft, which we think are likely to come back into service.FIGURE 28Parked FleetSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 29Parked Fleet - Last YearSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchThe number of relatively young parked aircraft (15 years or younger) was roughly unchanged sequentially and 22% lowerYOY. We estimate that roughly 4% of 0-15 year aircraft are currently in storage.FIGURE 30Parked Fleet - By AgeFIGURE 31Historical Parked - Young (0-15yr) AircraftFIGURE 32Recent Parked - Young (0-15yr) Aircraft900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -291900 n800-700-600-500 -400-300 -200-100-二京a916 aT6 a寸EaSEaZEa二京as总 a60总a 80京aN06 a756 749 772 73i 710653587 562 553 571OOAIruoo三 1ooIda;s604 592 593a LdQcSSON- 8ZOSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-170-5103911213%110-7-6%2%2%6-10157168-11-7%220-63-29%3%4%11-1533333300%426-93-22%12%15%16-20545564-19-3%645-100-16%17%22%20-25321329-8-2%440-119-27%23%33%26-30291303-12-4%295-4-1%32%31%30+237238-10%224136%19%16%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%10%12%Young (0-15)59359210%756-163-22%4%6%Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20) in particular have returned from the park over the last year (- 18%).FIGURE 34Change in Parked Aircra什 By Age - YOYSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3315%nw-15%nw-8% -7%-10%0-56-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 26-3030+Change in Parked Aircraft By Age - SequentialSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchParked - by Manufacturer and ModelWe count 964 parked Boeing aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially and 12% lower YOY.FIGURE 35Parked Fleet - Boeingm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-177076600%7-1-14%21%23%7173300%7-4-57%2%5%720000n/a00n/an/an/a7274243-1-2%4112%40%37%737375389-14-4%410-35-9%5%6%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747807911%123-43-35%14%20%乃7747223%109-35-32%10%14%7677479-5-6%88-14-16%9%11%7777477-3-4%84-10-12%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%DC-8910-1-10%10-1-10%64%71%DC-91112-1-8%12-1-8%26%26%DC-107700%5240%15%10%MD-80158159-1-1%165-7-4%39%34%MD-90000n/a00n/a0%0%MD-116600%13-7-54%5%10%Total964986-22-2%1,092-128-12%7%8%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 376 parked Airbus aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially, and 22% lower YOY.FIGURE 36Parked Fleet - AirbusSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet IDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17 |A2201100%100%2%3%A300111100%14-3-21%5%6%A3101115-4-27%15-4-27%18%23%A3182200%3-1-33%5%7%A320 Family192205-13-6%285-93-33%3%4%A320neo Family2420420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A330neo000n/a00n/an/an/aA3406667-1-1%78-12-15%29%32%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%Total376382-6-2%482-106-22%4%5%We count 274 parked Bombardier aircraft in December, 1% higher sequentially, but 4% lower YOY.FIGURE 37Parked Fleet - BombardierSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17CRJ100/20021821442%247-29-12%29%32%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50%2%3%Total27427131%284-10-4%17%18%We count 265 parked Embraer aircraft in December, 3% lowersequentially, and 25% lower YOY.FIGURE 38Parked Fleet - EmbraerSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17 change % changeDec-18Dec-17 IERJ-135/140/145201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5%6%6%Total265273-8-3%355-90-25%12%16%Parked - by Engine TypeThe YOY reduction in parked aircraft has been spread among engine manufacturers led by CFM on fewer parked aircraft with CFM 56 engines.FIGURE 39 Parked Fleet - By Enginem/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17V25007688-12-14%91-15-16%2%3%PW1000G1412217%311367%4%2%PW4000929200%145-53-37%11%17%PW60002200%3-1-33%22%27%JT9D171700%26-9-35%34%46%PW2000141400%19-5-26%5%7%JT8D241246-5-2%251-10-4%36%33%JT3D78-1-13%9-2-22%23%28%JT4A000n/a00n/an/an/aPW3009900%10-1-10%18%19%Total Pratt & Whitney472488-163%557-85-15%9%10%Trent146147-1-1%1311511%8%8%RB.163 Spey2200%200%15%14%RB.80Conway000n/a00n/an/an/aRB211787623%108-30-28%14%18%BR7003300%7-4-57%2%5%RB.183 Tay3944-5-11%64-25-39%22%33%AE3007201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%M45H000n/a00n/an/an/aTotal Rolls-Royce469482-13-3%595-126-21%13%18%LEAP2013754%614233%3%3%CFM56489503-14-3%608-119-20%4%5%Total CFM International509516-71%614-105-17%4%5%CF6 Family97106-9-8%131-34-26%7%9%GEnx1412217%8675%2%2%GE90373613%3439%3%3%CF3433833441%356-18-5%11%12%Total GE486488-20%529-43-8%8%9%Other5152-1-2%65-14-22%16%20%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%7%9%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issued in April. We now count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% ofthe fleet), 20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by Rolls-Royce.ii1i>±A三n6d£三cWSParkedTrent787s % ofFleetSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked - by RegionWe estimate that North American operators account for the largest proportion of the parked fleet (38%), followed by Europe (21%) and Asia (17%).FIGURE 41Parked Fleet7%Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 42Parked Fleet - Last Year6%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe estimate that 9% of the North American fleet is currently in storage, compared to Europe at 6% and Asia at 4%, Over the past year, aircraft have returned from the park in all regions except for Latin America.FIGURE 43 Parked Fleet - By Regionm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17Africa16816264%169-1-1%16%17%Asia Pacific336344-8-2%347-11-3%4%4%Europe419449-30-7%577-158-27%6%9%Latin America144147-3-2%133118%8%8%MiddleEast164167-3-2%180-16-9%10%11%North America721726-5-1%927-206-22%9%11%Total1,9872z026-39-2%2,360-373-16%7%9%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchScrapped Aircraft - In DetailWe count 673 scraps for 2018, 8% higher than this time last year.FIGURE 44 Scrapped Aircra什一 YTD80070060050040030020010002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Scraps Rest of Year ScrapsSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWecount673 scraps in the last 12 months, equivalentto 2.4% ofthefleet, roughly in line with the historical average at 2.6%.FIGURE 45R12M Scrapped Aircraft800 -700 -pddpos600 -