世界经济总结资料.docx

世界经济总结资料World Economy TOPIC Globalisation - References: Essay-Globalisation and Economic Growth Essay-Globalisation and the Rural Poor Essay-Is Globalisation in Danger PPT-introduction.ppt PPT-developing countries.ppt PPT-transformation economies.ppt Textbook-Ch9 Developing countries Textbook-Ch10 The Transformation countries - 全球化的定义 Liberalization of trade, investment, production, and other factors. 全球化的成因 1. The first and perhaps more profound influence is technological change. 2. Multilateral trade negotiations resulted in the continuing liberalization of trade and investment. 3. Globalization has also been promoted by the widespread liberalization of investment transactions and the development of international financial markets. 4. Falls in transport and communications costs. 全球化的优点 1.Productivity increases faster when countries produce goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. Living standards can increase more rapidly. 2. Global competition and cheap imports keep a constraint on prices, so inflation is less likely to disrupt economic growth. 3. An open economy promotes technological development and innovation, with fresh ideas from abroad. 4. Jobs in export industries tend to pay about 15% more than jobs in import-competing industries. 5. Unfettered capital movements provide the US access to foreign investment and maintain low interest rates. 全球化的缺点 Globalization can make the domestic economy vulnerable to disturbances initiated overseas. 1.Millions of Americans have lost jobs because of imports or shifts in production abroad. Most find new jobs that pay less. 2. Millions of other Americans fear getting laid off, especially at those firms operating in Import-competing industries. 3.Workers face demands of wage concessions from their employers, which often threaten to export jobs abroad if wage concessions are not agreed to. 4. Besides blue-collar jobs, service and white-collar jobs are increasingly vulnerable to operations being sent overseas. 5.American employees can lose their competitiveness when companies build state-of-the-art factories in low-wage countries, making them as productive as those in the US. 全球化导致“分化大时代”的到来？ I dont think so.The divergence claim is weakened.The world income inequality peaked around 1970 has declined somewhat in the era of unprecedented globalisation since then.This outcome has been driven primarily by the much improved growth performance of two developing countries,China and India. 全球化对经济增长是否有利？ There would be a cautious response. First,distance still mattered.Trade flows, technology flows, financial flows and capital movements are all much reduced the greater is the distance between countries.Moreover, distance from markets and sources of supply is highly correlated with income levels. Second,institutional quality also has a very strong influence on growth and levels of income, particularly with respect to capital markets, both as a key influence on growth performance and in terms of facilitating successful participation in globalised finance. At the same time, there clearly is an important role for institutional diversity in rapid catch-up growth. 全球化使收入不同等减弱甚至最终趋同？ Lucas argues that: 1 While the 20th century was marked by widening international income inequality, the 21st century will see this reversed. 2 While capital is fully mobile internationally, international income inequalities should be rapidly reduced as capital flows from rich to poor countries. 3 The process of economic catch-up and convergence ensues which exhibits an inverse correlation between initial income levels and subsequent growth of real income per head. Lucas model: The model is shown to exhibit rising international inequality of incomes in the 20th followed by a strong turnaround in the 21st century.That is to say,countries that start growing later have faster initial growth and then experience growth proportional to income gap with leader. Lucas criticize: a.The new economic geography school sees the process of development not as the steady convergence of the poor to the rich, but rather as a rapid transition of a select few who are favoured by location. b.The new institutional economic history view pioneered that institutions are crucial in informing decisions to invest and/or to innovate. But the tradition also stresses that bad institutions are frequently persistent and can be virtually impossible to reform because of path dependency. In the absence of well-defined property rights,enforceable contracts and government, the neoclassical catch-up process will be aborted. c.Government also has a crucial role to play in combatting coordination failures and instability in the financial system, both of which potentially undermine investment. d.The distribution of the gains from international trade deserve some attention.A limiting case would be one of immiserising growth in which increases in productive potential were more than offset by declines in export prices and loss of purchasing power over imports. 全球化对农业的影响 Globalisation declined information and communications costs,trade protectionism,tariff and non-tariff barriers.While the expansion of agricultural trade has lagged,reflecting the generally lower income elasticities of demand for primary goods,and its share in total world trade has been fallen.In short,agricultural liberalisation has so far made limited progress. 1 Agricultural liberalisation model is not working well because it is noe being applied,i.e. because of extensive continued protectionism within OECD. 2 Similarly,within many developing countries liberalisation remains partial,industrial protectionism and other other anti-agricultural biases persist,and market outcomes often differ markedly from the theoretical ideal. 3 Any residual tendency for the forces of globalisation to favour developing country labour-intensive agriculture tends to be offset by biases in technological progress in favour of temperate crops and capital- and skill-intensity. 全球化对贫困的影响 Globalisation is liable to change the welfare of the rurul poor by influencing the efficiency of resource use,the pace of economic growth,and the distribution of income,through their impact on technologies,on the security of livelihoods,on policies and on the provision of public goods. Ways of affecting the welfare of rural poor: static effciency effects;dynamic growth effects;technological progress;distributional effects;insecurity effects;policy effects. GOODs:There is a huge potential benefit,for example,from an acceleration of growth following from fuller integration into a rapidly expanding market for exports.There are benefits to be had from more productive resource uses,from improved access to technological advances and from policy improvements induced by exogenous pressures. BADs:Against these,there are very real dangers that the rural poor will be left behind;that they will not have access to the knowledge and other assets necessary for success in an increasingly competitive world;that food security may be reduced;that continuing political and policy biases will diminish their prospects of sharing in the potential benefits;and that globalisation will be associated with widening income disparties. There are some determinants of outcomes: exogenous factors;market access;market failures;the assets of the rural poor. A variety of factors prevent the rural poor from responding as well as they might to market opportunities and heightened competition:the forces limiting their market access(poor information,weak institutions,poor infrastructure,etc.) and their inadequate command over assets that would raise their market effectiveness,notably education,land,water and finance. A tendency towards intensifying inequalities of income and wealth,as well as heighted instability and uncertainly,prevent general economic progress from being translated fully into improvements in the well-being of the poor. 对全球化的威逼 Ideas; Interests; Institutional Relations; Instability. 国际金融危机及其缘由 Big problems in international financial system:from dollar shortage to dollar glut. Reasons for U.S. chronic international deficit: too much inflation at home; overgenerosity in the aid and military programs; lack of trust in the dollar; the rapid growth of productivity abroad; high investment abroad by American firms; quadrupled price of OPEC oil. 全球化和区域一体化的关系 1 Regional integration and globalisation are staggered to promote each other. Regional integration is part of globalisation, globalisation is the development direction of regional integration. 2 Globalisation has a broader scope than regional integration, and regional integration has a higher level than the globalisation. 3 The strengthening of regional integration will improve the position and enhance the force of the members in the process of globalisation. 4 Regional integration and globalisation are both the means of transnational optimal allocation. As a result of the regional blocs have similar geography,politics,income,development level and economic advantages,they are more easy to achieve the free movement of factors of production,accordingly paving the way for globalisation. 发达国家二战后格局发展历程 Stage 1 recovery of world economy (1945-1952) Characteristics:increasing GNP growth for main market economy countries Stage 2 high-speed growth of world economy (1953-1973) Characteristics:high-speed growth Reasons: third scientific and technological revolution;adjustment of production relations. Stage 3 stagflation (1973-1982) Characteristics:lower GDP growth rate and higher CPI Reasons:deficit finance; debt increase; monetary supply increase; increasing petroleum price; surplus production capability; international facors. Stage 4 economic readjustment and reform period (1983) Characteristics:reduce government expenditure;lower tax rate;reduce monetary supply;enterprise privately owned;industrial structure readjustment 发展中国家的定义 Underdeveloped economically, in the transition from traditional economy to modernezed economy.In a broader sense, the rest of the nations and regions except developed countries. 发展中国家的特征 1 Undeveloped productivity: agriculture; industry; science technology 2 Dualist structure 3 Imperfect market system and mechanism 4 National capitalism 5 Dependence on DCs 发展中国家的不发达的缘由 1 Excessive population growth 2 Missing institutions 3 Lack of capital formation 4 No entrepreneurship 5 National debt 6 Vicious circle 7 Different endowment conditions 发展中国家的发展策略 1 Import substitute(inward) Definition:This policy was directed at replacing imports by domestic goods. Measures: Protectionist instruments:import duties import licenses; Control on foreign exchange; Revalue domestic currency; Preferential policies for new industries. Performance: Faster development of national industries; Lack of scale of economies, difficult to access international market; Less export of agricultural products, decreasing exchange foreign income; Increased demands for imported equipments, technology parts, imbalanced payment of account. Countries and outcomes: Latin America,failed. 2 Export diversification(outward) Definition:This policy was to expose to export sectors to international competition and diversify exports. Measures: Loosen trade restriction; Labor-intensive products to capital-intensive technology-intensive products; Flexible trading system with government and non-government organizations involved; Found export processing areas. Performance: Increase interest rate; Improve the quality of education; Government-guided management system; Combination of economic growth reasonable distribution of income. Countries and outcomes: Asia,succeeded. 转型国家的定义 Countries gave up central planning and switched over to a market economy approach. 转型国家的特征 1 Institutional framework: Law of contract Law of enterprises Property rights Two-tier banking system 2 Macroeconomic stabilization: Monetary stabilization: inflation; currency reform and convertibility; tight budget restrain; reduction of government budget deficits 3 Real adjustment of firms: Start of micro-reforms: Autonomy of firms Abolition of the government export monopoly Markets instead of central planning Free market entry Implementation of micro-reforms: Freeing of prices (on commodity and factor markets) Free trade, no subsidies for tradable goods Commercialization of firms Privatization of enterprises New enterprises 转型国家经济发展的J曲线效应 The transformation of a centrally planned economy involves a collapse of national output. Reasons: 1 A crucial reason for this breakdown is that the capital stock of the transformation country that was obsolete. Therefore,the reform countries have to rebuild their capital stock. But it is:time-costing;involving adjustment costs;existing human capital integrated. 2 institutional vacuum at the beginning. 转型国家的经济政策 1 Privitization: mainly coupon privitization 2 The tightening of the budget restraint: transformation countries are often characterized by high budget deficits. 3 Current account deficits; 4 Inflation. - TOPIC International Institutions - References: PPT-international institutions.ppt PPT-WTO international trade policy.ppt Textbook-Ch14 International Institutions Textbook-Ch5 International trade policy - IMF的目标 1 Convertibility: The IMF determined the circumstances in which countries made their national currencies convertible with other currencies. 2 The exchange rate regime: The IMF decided on the ways in which currency values were to be corrected,and the choice to be made between fixed and flexible exchange rates. 3 Balance of payments adjustment: The IMF resolved how balance of payments surpluses and deficits were to be accommodated between countries. 4 Reserve assets (first SDRs): The IMF held reserves from which debtor countries could borrow in limited quantities.In 1970 the first special drawing rights(SDRs) were allocated to memebers,and IMF is a large holder of gold reserves. 5 International management: The IMF provided machinery for consultation and collaboration on international monetary problems. 改革后IMF的角色 1 Still had a role to play in relation to convertibility, exchange rates balance of payments adjustment. 2 Responsibility of ensuring that: not engage in destabilising speculation over exchange rates; not attempt to influence artificially the value of exchange rates in order to gain a trading advantage. 斯蒂格利茨对IMF改革的提案 To disclose the poverty and unemployment impact of its conditionality requirement; To pay more attention to improving safety nets in vulnerable countri