银行业2021年中报回顾：银行中报的启示.docx

业绩概览：收入增速回暖，拨备支撑盈利收入端营收增速触底回升，非息收入贡献可观叭股上市银行1上半年营收同比+5.9% （Q1同比+3.7%）, 2020年以来的营收下行趋势企稳。拆分来看：1）利息净收入增速总体平稳。一季度和上半年同比增速均为4.8%,二季度资产扩张 总体平稳（20Q2和21Q2生息资产分别+1.4%/1.6%）,受资产端拖累影响，当季息差仍有 行业性小幅回落。2）手续费及佣金净收入保持景气增长。一季度和上半年同比增速分别为11.1%/8.3%, 主要是今年以来财富管理业务驱动的零售中收保持乐观增长。3）其他非息二季度显著多增。一季度和上半年同比增速分别为-9.5%/+9.3%,今年4 月以来市场利率中枢稳中有降，使得交易类收入呈现同比显著改善趋势。盈利端：Q2拨备减计支撑盈利，行业利润录得双位数增长。上市银行上半年PPOP 同比+4.9%,而归母净利润同比+13.0 （Q1为+4.6%）,二季度拨备对盈利增速的拉动作用 近9 pct。拨备计提回归常态的背后，广义指标和前瞻指标指向资产质量仍在稳中向好。前瞻而言，拨备带来的反哺效应下,上半年的较高增速为全年银行业盈利增长奠定了 基础，后续季度关注中收持续增长和息差边际企稳带来的收入端改善机会。图1： 19Q4-21Q2上市银行营业收入、PPOP和归母净利润增速（累积同比）资料来源：各公司财报，表1：上市银行盈利同比增速分解（累积同比）1注：包括36家A股银行，包括6家大型银行、9家股份制银行、13家城商行和8家农商；由于局部季度财务数据不全, 未包含新上市的厦门、重庆、齐鲁、瑞丰及沪农商行。报告后续局部无特殊说明外，包括全部41家A股上市银行。2020N2021Q12021H利息净收入+6.9%+4.8%+4.8%#规模+11.7%+7.8%+8.9%#息差-4.8%-3.0%-4.1%非息-1.4%-1.0%+1.1%利息收入利息支出利息净收入21Q121Q221Q121Q221Q121Q2宁波17.0%17.0%3.8%12.5%32.1%21.9%江苏13.0%14.6%0.7%3.4%34.3%33.2%贵阳3.6%3.8%8.0%10.4%-1.2%-3.2%杭州11.4%12.5%7.0%11.8%17.1%13.4%上海5.1%7.5%1.9%6.8%9.8%8.3%成都18.7%21.8%17.5%23.7%19.9%19.8%郑州7.2%8.1%9.7%10.0%4.3%5.9%长沙12.6%15.0%14.9%16.4%10.3%13.5%青岛8.0%7.1%14.3%15.6%1.4%-2.1%西安8.9%9.5%9.2%12.3%8.6%6.3%苏州5.2%6.8%4.4%11.1%6.1%2.0%厦门8.4%11.3%6.7%10.1%9.3%13.1%重庆9.7%9.1%9.3%12.4%10.3%4.9%齐鲁16.0%17.5%17.9%20.2%13.9%14.5%城商行8.4%9.5%43%7.8%736%11.7%江阴7.7%8.0%15.7%11.1%0.0%4.7%无锡7.4%10.3%8.2%10.4%6.5%10.2%常熟4.8%7.7%13.2%14.7%-0.5%3.1%苏农4.9%8.6%7.5%14.7%3.0%3.8%张家港10.0%12.4%26.0%27.9%-1.0%1.3%紫金7.8%9.6%13.4%18.4%2.2%1.0%青农商13.3%13.6%20.0%22.6%7.2%5.7%渝农商9.4%11.6%9.4%15.0%9.5%8.5%瑞丰9.2%12.8%18.0%16.9%1.9%9.0%沪农商10.6%11.5%14.8%15.0%6.1%7.7%农商行9.4%11.1%734%16.1%5.7%6.6%合计3.4%45%1.8%4.0%48%4.9%资料来源：各公司财报，注：2020年及2021年上半年，局部银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理净息差：小幅下行，边际趋稳净息差情况看，下行趋势放缓，负债本钱小幅上行。以期初期末平均法测算，2021年 上半年41家上市银行累计净息差为2.07%,较一季度下降2BP,整体下行趋势有所放缓， 主要是资产端收益下行压力降低明显。二季度大银行、城商行及农商行负债本钱较一季度 均有所上行，考虑到资金面环境较为宽松，推测主要是存款端竞争较为激烈，存款本钱小 幅上行所致。表7：期初期末平均法计算各家银行息差情况20Q4净息差（累计）21Q121Q2生息资产收益率（累计）计息负债本钱率（累计）20Q421Q121Q220Q421Q121Q2工行2.14%2.09%2.07%3.62%3.49%3.47%1.63%1.55%1.55%建行2.22%2.14%2.12%3.81%3.70%3.69%1.78%1.75%1.76%农行2.15%2.08%2.11%3.67%3.61%3.68%1.68%1.68%1.71%中行1.86%1.77%1.75%3.41%3.24%3.24%1.68%1.60%1.62%净息差（累计）生息资产收益率（累计）计息负债本钱率（累计）20Q421Q121Q220Q421Q121Q220Q421Q121Q2交行1.59%1.53%1.53%3.82%3.59%3.59%2.52%2.32%2.34%邮储2.41%2.38%2.34%3.95%3.94%3.92%1.62%1.61%1.63%大银行209%2.02%2.01%3.67%3.56%3.56%1.74%1.69%1.71%中信2.20%2.13%2.10%4.37%4.33%4.32%2.29%2.26%2.28%招商2.51%2.54%2.49%4.17%4.06%3.99%1.76%1.60%1.60%民生2.21%2.15%2.07%4.68%4.49%4.43%2.52%2.43%2.46%兴业2.17%2.16%2.09%4.60%4.57%4.48%2.37%2.34%2.32%浦发2.05%1.88%1.86%4.37%4.13%4.11%2.34%2.30%2.30%光大2.37%2.27%2.23%4.75%4.56%4.51%2.47%2.33%2.33%华夏2.64%2.50%2.47%4.74%4.69%4.66%2.27%2.35%2.34%平安2.59%2.93%2.86%4.86%5.12%5.05%2.35%2.27%2.25%浙商2.16%2.21%2.18%5.02%4.90%4.83%2.85%2.68%2.63%股份行2.30%2.27%223%4.54%4.44%4.39%2.30%223%2.23%北京1.96%1.91%1.86%4.27%4.14%4.13%2.41%2.29%2.33%南乐1.88%2.05%1.97%4.64%4.66%4.58%2.70%2.54%2.53%宁波2.41%2.63%2.36%4.92%4.98%4.75%2.27%2.12%2.18%江苏1.92%2.09%2.10%4.80%4.81%4.83%2.78%2.64%2.65%贵阳2.67%2.42%2.43%5.43%5.33%5.39%2.72%2.88%2.94%杭州1.91%1.99%1.92%4.24%4.33%4.28%2.34%2.36%2.35%上海1.81%1.75%1.76%4.20%4.09%4.10%2.27%2.26%2.25%成都2.18%2.10%2.14%4.35%4.31%4.41%2.13%2.19%2.25%郑州2.48%2.33%2.39%5.28%5.23%5.23%2.67%2.78%2.73%长沙2.60%2.45%2.47%5.08%4.97%4.99%2.38%2.44%2.44%青岛2.18%1.99%1.86%4.60%4.33%4.24%2.38%2.27%2.28%西安2.21%2.14%2.07%4.68%4.62%4.59%2.66%2.69%2.73%苏州2.43%2.25%2.22%5.14%4.79%4.87%2.57%2.41%2.50%厦门1.87%1.53%1.52%4.36%3.97%3.91%2.57%2.58%2.52%重庆2.21%2.15%2.03%5.04%4.97%4.83%2.93%2.95%2.94%齐鲁2.07%2.00%1.96%4.31%4.25%4.22%2.29%2.33%2.36%城商行2.07%2.07%2.03%4.59%4.53%4.50%2.48%2.42%2.44%江阴2.03%1.93%1.96%4.18%4.11%4.12%2.28%2.32%2.30%无锡2.05%1.94%1.93%4.42%4.25%4.26%2.47%2.44%2.48%常熟3.17%2.92%3.00%5.36%5.05%5.18%2.39%2.29%2.35%苏农2.38%2.36%2.21%4.18%4.25%4.11%1.94%2.01%2.03%张家港2.78%2.53%2.48%4.85%4.77%4.74%2.25%2.41%2.42%紫金1.86%1.86%1.82%3.78%3.90%3.88%2.08%2.19%2.22%青农商2.46%2.19%2.20%4.62%4.41%4.44%2.10%2.18%2.22%渝农商2.28%2.32%2.29%4.31%4.45%4.44%2.21%2.29%2.31%瑞丰2.56%2.34%2.28%4.70%4.57%4.53%2.33%2.42%2.43%沪农商1.96%1.91%1.92%4.07%4.11%4.11%2.22%2.25%2.24%农商行225%2.18%2.17%4.33%4.34%4.34%2.21%2.27%2.28%合计2.14%2.09%2.07%3.97%3.87%3.85%1.96%1.90%1.91%资料来源：各公司财报， 注：2020年及2021年上半年，局部银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述表格己 进行重述处理表8：上市银行公布净息差数据资料来源：各公司财报,20202021Q12021H工行2.15%2.14%2.12%建行2.19%2.13%2.13%农行2.20%未公布2.12%中行1.85%未公布1.76%交行1.57%1.54%1.55%邮储2.42%2.40%2.37%中信2.26%未公布2.09%招商2.49%2.52%2.49%民生2.14%未公布2.02%兴业2.36%未公布2.32%浦发2.02%未公布1.84%光大2.29%未公布2.20%华夏2.59%2.45%2.41%平安2.88%2.87%2.83%浙商2.19%未公布2.27%北京1.92%未公布1.84%南京1.86%1.96%1.91%宁波2.30%2.55%2.33%江苏2.14%未公布2.29%贵阳2.52%2.23%2.26%杭州1.98%未公布1.93%上海1.82%1.73%1.73%成都2.19%未公布2.11%郑州2.40%未公布2.24%长沙2.58%未公布2.41%青岛2.13%2.02%1.90%西安2.16%未公布2.00%苏州2.22%未公布2.00%厦门1.65%未公布1.63%重庆2.27%未公布2.06%齐鲁2.15%未公布2.00%江阴2.19%未公布2.18%无锡2.07%未公布1.96%常熟3.18%未公布3.02%苏农2.50%未公布2.20%张家港2.74%未公布2.41%紫金1.91%未公布1.81%青农商2.52%未公布2.24%渝农商2.25%未公布2.23%瑞丰2.51%未公布2.28%沪农商1.91%未公布1.81%I非息表现：中收改善显著，其他非息扰动非息收入：中收景气，交投收益高增。1 ）中收保持较快增速：上半年41家上市银行 手续费及佣金净收入合计同比+8.3% （一季度同比+11.0%）,增速较一季度有所回落，但 景气度仍处较高水平，驱动因素主要来自于财富管理相关的零售业务高速增长。2）投资收 入显著回暖：上半年公允价值变动损益、投资收益同比分别+203亿元/-129亿元（一季度 同比分别100亿元/269亿元），二季度市场利率中枢下移背景下，债券及基金估值上升， 从而推动公允价值收益增长。此外，除投资业务外，当季租赁、保险等业务表现良好，贡献 子公司收入增长。中收增速略有回落，但仍保持较快增长手续费及佣金净收入保持较快增长。上半年上市银行手续费及佣金净收入同比+8.3% （一季度同比+11.0%）,增速较一季度有所回落，但仍高于去年四个季度，说明中间业务 延续恢复态势。上半年资本市场表现积极，资管产品代销业务收入增长明显，如代销基金/ 信托/保险收入同比分别增长39.8%/21.0%/33.7%,平安银行代理基金/保险/理财收入分别 同比增长 172.6%/44.3%/33.3%o图8：上半年上市银行中收增速到达8.3%图8：上半年上市银行中收增速到达8.3%图9：上半年城农商行中收增速较快（累计） 20Q2 «20Q3 «20Q4 b21Q1 i 21Q2 20Q2 «20Q3 «20Q4 b21Q1 i 21Q225.0% n20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% -0.0%-5.0% -10.0%大银行 股份行 城商行 农商行资料来源：各公司财报， 注：2020年及2021年上半年，局部银 行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述 表格已进行重述处理资料来源：各公司财报， 注：2020年及2021年上半年，局部银 行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述 表格已进行重述处理资料来源：各公司财报， 注：2020年及2021年上半年，局部银 行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分类至利息收入，上述 表格已进行重述处理表9：上市银行手续费及佣金净收入增速2020H2020Q32020N2021Q12021H工行0.5%0.3%0.5%1.3%0.5%建行4.3%4.2%3.3%8.8%6.8%农行2.9%5.4%2.2%12.2%8.8%中行-0.4%0.6%2.3%18.1%11.9%交行5.0%1.5%3.3%-0.5%2.8%邮储4.2%11.2%12.8%51.6%37.9%大银行22%2.6%25%9.3%6.8%中信5.9%1.0%7.9%24.0%18.2%招商8.5%10.7%11.2%23.3%23.6%民生4.2%0.9%-1.9%-10.5%-12.9%资料来源：各公司财报， 注：（1） 2019年同期，中信银行将信用卡现金分期收入重分类至利息收入，并对去 年同期相关数据进行重述；（2） 2020年及2021年上半年，局部银行将信用卡分期业务由手续费及佣金收入重分 类至利息收入，上述表格已进行重述处理2020H2020Q32020N2021Q12021H兴业28.4%27.4%24.1%34.2%23.9%浦发10.9%26.5%37.0%-14.5%-10.0%光大10.9%8.1%5.0%6.7%6.2%华夏-4.1%0.0%3.7%11.5%-13.6%平安7.2%15.8%18.3%20.7%20.4%浙商15.4%10.8%12.1%-14.3%-21.3%股份行9.8%11.9%736%13.2%11.1%北京-13.7%-6.8%-9.8%-16.7%-25.9%南京21.4%16.6%25.0%58.2%32.0%宁波46.5%41.8%24.1%2.4%-0.7%江苏12.7%10.5%17.9%48.3%28.4%贵阳8.9%-4.8%18.1%-9.1%-18.0%杭州120.9%93.7%101.7%147.2%19.5%上海8.4%7.3%9.5%22.2%39.7%成都22.7%29.0%22.6%55.8%55.5%郑州36.3%19.9%9.8%-16.8%-30.0%长沙-4.3%-0.9%-6.3%2.7%34.3%青岛92.6%63.4%39.0%8.2%-26.2%西安-14.7%-1.8%8.5%29.0%8.3%苏州10.5%10.9%32.5%63.8%37.4%厦门14.7%4.8%-0.1%24.8%19.2%重庆12.8%16.4%9.3%-22.2%-17.9%齐鲁61.5%49.4%41.5%57.5%48.6%城商行18.2%17.3%16.2%20.1%7.9%江阴63.8%48.8%1.2%48.4%63.4%无锡62.2%50.1%90.6%102.8%93.2%常熟-5.8%-20.8%-31.1%191.8%52.8%苏农73.5%13.5%1.6%1.4%90.2%张家港69.2%-25.8%-234.2%143.3%135.1%紫金-15.1%22.0%-43.9%-45.7%-57.7%青农商44.1%49.8%52.0%92.7%77.7%渝农商8.8%8.2%29.7%-13.7%-8.7%瑞丰-33.3%20.6%19.6%沪农商-22.9%-5.5%-11.8%-11.3%农商行7.6%10.7%8.9%0.8%1.5%合计5.5%6.7%7.0%11.0%8.3%利率中枢下行驱动公允价值收益提升，投资业务恢复明显上半年上市银行除手续费外非息收入同比+9.3%（ 一季度9.6%），投资业务改善明显。 拆分来看，上半年41家上市银行公允价值变动损益同比+15.52% （Q1同比-46.52%）,投 资收益同比784% （Q1同比-27.65%）,资金市场利率宽松环境下，利率中枢下移驱动债 券及基金估值提升，推动公允价值增长。除投资业务外，租赁、保险等业务表现良好，贡献子公司收入增长。图10：上市银行非息收入及其他非息收入累计同比增速情况-O-非息收入累计同比增速一_其他非息收入累计同比增速资料来源：Wind,注；非息收入累计增速中，己对信用卡分期收入进行相应重述表10：上市银行其他非息收入规模（单位：亿元）其他非息收入合计#投资收益#公允价值变动损益#汇兑损益其他业务收入2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H2020H2021H工行5305561821796813-4016320348建行426508109117-5-62043302354农行279340-34110108-43-1132216241中行38547462134153746-6262308交行2873049183-17131614197195邮储1371415565647714-645大银行2,0432,3244656882339245931,3011,451中信1171229973930101503招商152172115111-12718193134民生1459313648-17215-12125兴业14815117789-34552334浦发144144123671061-221313光大33612937-1191144华夏17271217480111平安83798060-5125522浙商42355320-1462722股份行882885824523-6022041537789北京31462540551111南京36323425013-1-822宁波35573651117-13-311江苏58525543062123贵阳105104-110000杭州18221918-240001上海47435034-311-1-311成都11161012120200郑州125145-3-12100长沙15191612-220104青岛106115-221-100其他非息收入合计西安2232-100000苏州1210116020011厦门7191-10-1-100重庆71389-231-101齐鲁6644210000城商行315336315271259卫-11816江阴3242-100000无锡3333000000常熟3433000000苏农4332010000张家港4434000000紫金4141-100000青农商101178220000渝农商5845010002瑞丰2211000000沪农商1113107030102农商行47514336171226合计3,2883,5951,6471,518176379781371,3871,561#投资收益#公允价值变动损益#汇兑损益其他业务收入资料来源：各公司财报,I资产质量：稳步向好资产质量：稳步向好。1 ）账面指标继续整固，上半年上市银行不良率下降0.07pct至 1.41%,已低于疫情前水平，同期关注率和逾期率亦显著下降0.21pct/0.06pct,反映广义 质量持续向好；2）行业不良总体平稳，零售贷款质量呈现行业性普遍修复态势，对公贷款 领域，关注房地产对公贷款以及大行的租赁商务业贷款质量波动情况；3）拨备再上台阶： 上半年拨备覆盖率提升11.3%至225.1%,亦修复至疫情前以上水平，其中14家银行拨备 覆盖率已到达300%+；广义拨备覆盖水平来看，半年末上市银行“拨贷比-不良率-关注率” 缺口完全修复（2014年来首次），反映此轮信用周期的“发生认定处置-计提”进程正步 入尾声。账面指标：继续整上市银行不良率连续四个季度下降，目前已低于疫情前水平。从上市银行加权平均平 均的不良贷款率看，20Q3-21Q2四个季度分别为1.50%/1.48%/1.43%/1.41%,半年末不 良水平已低于疫情前1.43%的平均水平。我们认为，账面不良率的持续向好，既有去年下 半年以来问题资产加大力度的处置因素，亦有今年以来经济和产/行业景气度修复带来不良 生成下降的原因。相比拟而言，上半年城商行不良率表现出更快的改善速度（-0.08pct）, 而农商行相对略慢（-0.05pct）o图11 ： A股上市银行不良贷款率情况1.70%1.65%1.60% -1.55% -1.50%1.45%1.40%1.35%1.30%1.25% -1.20% -一O一大银行股份行 _。一城商行 一。一农商行 合计一O一大银行股份行 _。一城商行 一。一农商行 合计L 48,1.45%eee1.47KI"。19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q2资料来源：各公司财报， 注：由于局部季度财务数据不全，未包含新上市的厦门、重庆、齐鲁、瑞丰及沪农 商行广义资产质量来看，上半年关注贷款率和逾期贷款率双双下降。上市银行加权平均数 据来看，半年末关注贷款率和逾期贷款率分别为1.79%/1.35%,较上年末进一步下降 0.21 pcV0.06pcto截至半年末，上市银行“逾期贷款/不良贷款”比重已经下降至95.7%o 拉长时间维度，关注率和逾期率自2018年以来呈现出稳定的逐步下降趋势，反映出银行 业问题资产强化认定和信用风险逐步出清的中期趋势。图12： A股上市银行关注率及逾期率资料来源：各公司财报， 注：由于局部季度财务数据不全，未包含新上市的厦门、重庆、齐鲁、瑞丰及沪农 商行单家银行比拟来看，大行、股份行资产质量有普遍性改善，城农商行质量演变呈现差 异化。1）六大行：上半年全部实现不良率与关注率下降；2）股份行：不良率与关注率普 遍下降，局部银行逾期率有微幅反弹；3）城/农商行：不良率与关注率普降，但局部银行 上半年逾期贷款出现一定幅度反弹，这一类区域性银行的后续资产质量演变情况值得关注。表11：上市银行资产质量情况不良率关注率逾期率2020N2021H变化2020N2021H变化2020N2021H变化工行1.58%1.54%-0.04 pct2.21%1.93%-0.28 pct1.44%1.33%-0.10 pct建行1.56%1.53%-0.02 pct2.95%2.80%-0.15 pct1.09%1.08%-0.01 pct农行1.57%1.50%-0.07 pct2.01%1.57%-0.44 pct1.29%1.10%-0.19 pct中行1.46%1.30%-0.16 pct1.87%1.53%-0.34 pct1.26%1.16%-0.10 pct交行1.67%1.60%-0.07 pct1.41%1.38%-0.03 pct1.54%1.48%-0.06 pct邮储0.88%0.83%-0.05 pct0.53%0.48%-0.05 pct0.79%0.89%+0.09 pct大银行1.50%144%0.07 QCf208%1.82%0.26 pct1.26%1.18%0.08 pct中信1.64%1.50%-0.14 pct2.01%2.16%+0.15 pct2.03%2.07%+0.03 pct招商1.07%1.01%-0.05 pct0.81%0.70%-0.11 pct1.12%1.02%-0.11 pct民生1.82%1.80%-0.02 pct2.98%2.86%-0.11 pct2.03%2.05%+0.02 pct兴业1.25%1.15%-0.10 pct1.37%1.35%-0.02 pct1.32%1.43%+0.11 pct浦发1.73%1.64%-0.09 pct2.58%2.26%-0.33 pct2.14%2.17%+0.03 pct光大1.38%1.36%-0.02 pct2.15%1.90%-0.25 pct2.15%2.05%-0.10 pct华夏1.80%1.78%-0.02 pct3.43%3.27%-0.15 pct1.96%2.04%+0.08 pct平安1.18%1.08%-0.10 pct1.11%0.96%-0.16 pct1.61%1.46%-0.15 pct浙商1.43%1.50%+0.08 pct1.75%1.64%-0.11 pct1.81%1.82%+0.01 pct股份行1.47%140%-0.07 pct1.96%1.84%O.72 pct1.77%1.76%-0.01 pct北京1.57%1.46%-0.11 pct1.14%0.96%-0.18 pct1.89%1.56%-0.33 pct南京0.92%0.91%-0.01 pct1.21%1.11%-0.10 pct1.16%1.27%+0.11 pct宁波0.79%0.79%-0.01 pct0.50%0.39%-0.11 pc