浅析次贷危机对中国出口制造业的影响（The impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industry）.doc

浅析次贷危机对中国出口制造业的影响The impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industryThe impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industryAbstract: the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global financial market turmoil intensified, while enjoying the benefits of globalization, China's economy is increasingly deeply felt the impact of economic globalization. China is in a crucial period of reform and development, and for the China export manufacturing industry in "an eventful year" is undoubtedly a challenge. This paper analyzes the crisis and challenge faced by China's export manufacturing industry from the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industry and the author's suggestions.Keywords subprime mortgage crisis; China's export manufacturing industry; influence; policy recommendationsOne, introductionThe subprime mortgage crisis, which started in the second half of 2006, suddenly formed a storm sweeping through the global financial market after entering the August 2007. Some financial institutions, such as hedge funds, investment banks and commercial banks, are on the verge of dissolution. Some warn of profits and some declare to raise the risk provision. In the two days of August 9, 2007 and August 10th, central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Japanese central bank, poured more than $300 billion into the market. Facing the financial system continues to worsen the situation, the Fed has three "unconventional" shot, on the one hand to recapitalise banking systems, through regular weekly auction market to $200 billion, while increasing the scale of the European Central Bank and currency swap and the Swiss central bank. On the one hand, to help the most critical financial institutions out of trouble, for example, to provide Bell Sten with a period of 28 days secured financing. In order to increase market liquidity, the discount rate was reduced from 315% to 3125%. At the same time, the authorities have also authorized the New York Federal Reserve to create a new discount window financing tool for the primary dealers. The Fed said that the aim of these measures was to support market liquidity and promote orderly operation of the market.The turmoil in the US financial market has caused a large amount of short-term capital outflow from the United States, which has resulted in a pressure on the balance of payments between the United States and the depreciation of the US dollar. The depreciation of the dollar caused by East Asian countries and oil exporters holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in the international capital market, which will cause the domestic long-term interest rates rise, on the other hand will weaken the dollar in the international monetary system influence. In addition, the devaluation of the dollar and foreign investors collectively reduce the dollar assets will exacerbate the global financial market turmoil, in the context of economic globalization, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, China is difficult to stay out of the crisis. 1 exports are one of the three driving forces of China's economy, while China's exports to the United States account for 1/4 of total exports. The economic situation of the United States has a great influence on China's export trade. Morgan Stephen Hroch of STANLEY estimates that U.S. economic growth rate fell by 1% per Chinese, exports will be reduced by about 6%, the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) reported that China exports are the United States to buy 19%. Under the background of American economic recession, China's export and investment will be restrained.Two, the impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industry1, the current situation and policy of China's export manufacturing industryLast year, 2007, for China manufacturing, especially China manufacturing export business, is "an eventful year". Consistent with the advantage of low cost profit China enterprises continue to suffer from the American European countries and other countries "anti-dumping" and "countervailing" trade litigation pressure, more and more enterprises feel after the accession to WTO enterprises to change. On the one hand, and Chinese government to deal with the international society for China manufacturing all sorts of questions and contradictions, on the other hand, in order to ease the trade surplus is too large, the adjustment of industrial structure, introduced a series of related policies, and these policies so that many manufacturing enterprises are the first to feel the pressure of environment is more complex.First of all, 08 years since August 1st, exports of goods tax rebate rate adjustment state again, the clothing is increased from 11% to 13% increased from 5% to 11%, bamboo chopsticks, bamboo increased from 0% to 11%, disposable chopsticks are the main products of the China southern provinces export,Because the chopsticks export industry is a low profit industry, the export tax rebate rate increase will directly reduce the cost of enterprises, in addition, apparel export tax rebate rate by two percentage points, the South China textile export enterprises, will have a more positive effect, effectively relieve the export profits, the pressure of survival status large. The export tax rebate can be adjusted directly to the export product category, which is the most direct tool in the foreign trade regulation and control policy. Since 2004, the country has repeatedly lowered the export tax rebate rate, especially in 2006 and 2007, the export tax rebate rate has been increasing. From July 1, 2007 onwards, the state adjusted 2831 export tax rebate policy, the abolition of 553 "high energy consumption, high pollution and resource" (referred to as "two high") products of export tax rebate, reduced 2268 easily lead to trade friction of the export tax rebate rate, and 10 kinds of export commodities tax rebates to export tax policy, including chemical industry, non-ferrous metal processing, clothing, shoes and hats and shipbuilding and other industries, accounting for all customs duties in 37% the total number of goods. 2Secondly, the "magic curse" set in the export business of enterprises, as well as the pressure brought by the appreciation of rmb. The appreciation of the renminbi, was a lot of media hailed as "double-edged sword", the positive side is mainly to alleviate the foreign trade imbalance, to reduce the import and export prices, benefiting domestic consumers at the same time, the appreciation of the Renminbi for enterprises can promote the healthy competition of enterprises, abandon the past that rely solely on the status of low cost advantage the concentrate more transfer to enhance the added value of products, improve productivity and reduce the cost of the scientific and technological content, up.Third, the tight monetary policy makes it difficult for enterprises to finance and increase the cost of financing. Refers to the tightening of monetary policy by raising interest rates, bank deposit reserve rate and reduce the currency issue and other means to reduce the amount of money in circulation, reduce the size of the loan, reducing investment and avoid economic overheating, curb inflation. In 2007, the central bank has raised interest rates 5 times, 16 times to increase the deposit reserve ratio, the small and medium-sized enterprise capital chain has been more and more tightly stretched, not only difficult to obtain bank credit support, credit industry from about 6% in 2005, dropped to the current 3%, the main object is small business loss. Due to the lack of money, about 20% of manufacturing enterprises in Wenzhou have been discontinued or semi discontinued. Under the tight monetary policy, most enterprises reflect that the examination and approval of enterprise loan projects by local banks is generally strict, and the loan interest rate is too high, which also compresses the profit space of enterprises. 3 tightening monetary policy for the current excess liquidity, real estate fever and other phenomena, but small and medium enterprises have been greatly affected.2, the impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China's export manufacturing industryIn 2007, China's trade surplus set the highest record in 3 consecutive years. More than 60% of these are created by the trade with the United States, showing that China's economy has a huge dependence on the United States, the U.S. economic slowdown will affect China's foreign trade. From the import and export data of the first quarter of 2021, the slowdown in exports to the United States has slowed sharply due to the weakening of the US economy. The import and export trade between China and the United States increased by 10.5%, compared with the same period last year, 9.6 points fell, of which exports increased by 5.4%, the growth rate fell by 15 points, imports increased by 19.1%, the growth rate accelerated 7.5 points. The trade surplus continued to shrink, a decrease of $1 billion 458 million compared with the first quarter of last year. The share of trade with the United States dropped from 20.1% last year to 12.91%. 4 shows that the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has an impact on the export driven China's economy. But the real issue that needs our attention is not the decline in the export scale, but the rise in export default rates and the corresponding export losses that the US consumer power and consumer confidence decline may lead to. Only this problem may have a substantial impact on Chinese enterprises or financial institutions.The US subprime mortgage crisis is leading to signs of weakness in the US consumer market, and Chinese companies have been implicated as the main export market in the United states.Sales of retailers in the same store in the United States have slowed down sharply, and share prices have fallen sharply, resulting in a huge pressure on competition and profitability. There are traders, because Chinese lowered the export tax rebate and the processing trade policy changes, China manufacturing price advantage are receding, the purchaser will no longer put the egg in one basket, began to develop in other areas of India, Vietnam and other suppliers." Subprime mortgage crisis hits China's exports. The negative effects of the US subprime mortgage crisis are expanding into the consumer market. The first one is American retailers. Stap Les U.S. same store sales growth slowed down, due to the Wall Street did not expect, the stock price fell. And the pressure of retailers has directly spread to Chinese export enterprises. A garment export enterprise in Zhejiang this year, orders have been reduced, many enterprises due to orders "eat enough" and production equipment idle. At the same time, retailers are becoming more sensitive to the prices of Chinese goods. Because of the pressure of competition, retailers do not dare to raise prices in the terminal market, but attract consumers at a low price, such as WAL-MART began to offer discount goods 3 weeks earlier than before. This makes retailers more desperate than ever to buy at a low price, and they are not willing to raise prices in the face of rising manufacturing costs in China this year. Because WAL-MART is required to maintain the order price last year, Fujian Quanzhou Shunmei group company this year to give up the order. 5The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's exports is still uncertain. But in the macro view, the central bank research shows that the U.S. economy slowed by 1 percentage points, China's exports will drop by 6 percentage points. China's product price advantage is challenged. Compared with the pressure of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the greater risk faced by China's export enterprises is that the price advantage of products is receding. Department of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute Vice President Li Yushi believes that the current impact on China export more from within, including lower export tax rebates, processing trade policy adjustments, and RMB appreciation, raw material prices, wages rise, manufacturing export profits continue to be squeezed. In addition, the new policy of processing trade stipulates that enterprises should pay earnest money to restrict commodities in processing trade, resulting in the pressure of enterprises' floating capital.Three, the problems and suggestions of subprime mortgage crisis,(1) prudently and orderly push forward the opening of China's financial system.Today, with the economic globalization, the global capital flows are becoming more and more frequent, and the world economic relations are becoming increasingly close. But the subprime crisis in the United States warns us that globalization has two sides: one is to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and the other is to spread the risk at a faster pace. The subprime crisis originated in the United States, but quickly spread to Europe, Australia, Latin America and Asia, evolved into a world crisis, the butterfly effect can not be ignored. The crisis in the financial market is highly conductive, and even if the crisis comes from developed countries, China, an open developing country, can not be spared. At present, China open financial system is integrated into the world economy, to seek better development initiatives, but because China financial market is still in the initial stage of construction, financial products and market anti risk ability needs to be improved, which requires more attention to the global financial market, to increase cross-border capital supervision, improve risk identification and management ability Chinese, enhance the soundness of the financial system, prudent and orderly promote the Chinese the opening of the financial system.(2) increase investment in energy conservation, emission reduction, new energy, chemical and railway industries.With the weakening of the global economy and its impact on China's exports and the relatively slow consumption, the trend of economic growth may be from overheating to the other extreme. Management is not excluded from environmental protection, new energy, transportation, such as railways, basic raw materials, such as mining industry to increase investment, the use of investment to stabilize economic growth, thereby easing the risk of external shocks. The structural industrial policy of 6 will take into account both the suppression of overheated economy and the unbalanced development of industry, and the dual role of effectively alleviating the risk of economic recession while the domestic economy is suffering from external shocks.(3) decrease and avoid exchange lossIn order to reduce the RMB appreciation led to export proceeds in foreign exchan