半导体行业对美国劳动力的积极影 响以及联邦行业激励措施将如何增加国内就业.docx

CONTENTSExecutive summary41. Introduction6The economic contribution of theU.S. semiconductor industry71.1 Total contribution to U.S. GDP 7Direct impact81.1.1 Indirect impact8Induced impact822 Jobs impact of the semiconductor industry8Jobs multiplier103. The semiconductor workforceii3.1 Semiconductor workforce by state11Location quotients1232 Occupational profile1333 People who work in the semiconductor industry1433.1Race and ethnicity14332Age distribution15333Educational attainment154. The economic impact of federal chip incentives174.1 Total impact on the U.S. economy during the build-out phase, 2021 to 2026174.2 Total temporary jobs created during the build-out phase, 2021to 20261843 Fab operationalimpacts194.4 R&D impacts19Construction impacts204.5 Capex and equipment outfitting impacts204.6 Long-term, positive incentive program impacts21The many uses of semiconductors225. Conclusion23Appendix246. eating the database247. introduction to economic impact analysis258. act model structure269. ut IMPLAN2610. ssary of terms27ManufactaringTrade,Informatiotransportation,andesFinancialactivitiesProfessional andOther servicesLeisure and hospitalityEducation andhealth servicesbusiness servicesGovernment1.85 millionjobs(noted by sectorin thousands)Source: Oxford Economics, IMPLAN89.8EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1.85 million U.S. jobs supported in 2020With its origin in the latter part of the 20th century, the semiconductor industry has grown to become one of the most important segments of the global economy. Today, semiconductors are found in nearly every electronic device, including phones, cars, and appliances. They enable nearly every industry, reflected by global sales of over $440 billion in 2020.1 Over 300 downstream economic sectors accounting for over 26 million U.S. workers are consumers of and are therefore enabled by semiconductors as a critical input for their sectors.Beyond providing inputs to nearly every industry, the U.S. semiconductor industry is essential to the U.S. economy, generating value for the economy, stimulating jobs, and paying income to workers. In total, the U.S. semiconductor industry supported 1.85 m川ion U.S. jobs in 2020. The industry directly employs more than 277,000 domestic workers in R&D, design, and manufacturing activities, among others.In addition, for each U.S. worker directly employed by the semiconductor industry, an additional 5.7 jobs are supported in the wider U.S. economy, either in the supply chains of the semiconductor industry or through the wage spending of those employed by the firms themselves or their supply chains.TOTALIncome(US$, billions)$160,8GDP(US$, billions)$246.41,852,049TOTALTOTALFIG. 1: Economic impact of the semiconductor industry on the U.S., 2020EmploymentSee .$147,7 billionGDP impact from 2021 to 2026300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000 Operations Capex Construction R&DNow, more than ever, there is a need to expand semiconductor R&D, design, and manufacturing in the U.S. through robust federal investments such as those called for in the CHIPS for America (CHIPS) Act, federal legislation enacted in January 2021 but not yet funded. By supporting the expansion of the domestic semiconductor industry, nearly all other sectors of the economy will benefit, beyond the semiconductor industry itself.We estimate a $50 billion federal investment program to incentivize domestic semiconductor manufacturing would add $24.6 billion annually to the U.S. economy and would create an average of 185,000 temporary jobs annually throughout the U.S. economy from 2021 to 2026. Over this six-year build-out period, therefore, the cumulative annual impact of such an incentive program on GDP and jobs would be $147.7 billion and 1.1 million, respectively. These economic benefits combine all the channels of impactdirect, indirect (supply chain) and induced (wage spending).2A $50 billion federal investment program to incentivize domestic semiconductor manufacturing can be expected to substantially increase the demand for talent within the semiconductor industry. As more domestic investments in semiconductor R&D, design, and manufacturing come online and increase production, the industry will need to hire more workers in a range of occupations. As a result of these incentives, the enduring positive impact on the U.S. economy is an additional 280,000 new jobs, of which 42,000 would be directly employed in the domestic semiconductor industry. This would boost U.S. semiconductor industry employment to 319,000 and its total jobs impact to 2.13 million in 2027.FIG. 2: The total annual jobs impact of a $50 billion federal semiconductor manufacturing incentive program, 2021-2026350,000The CHIPS Act also includes semiconductor research provisions, but this analysis does not consider the economic and job gains that would come from federal funding for those research provisions. Because legislation to fund the CHIPS Act has not been finalized as of publication, this report models the domestic jobs and economic impact of a hypothetical $50 billion federal program to incentivize domestic semiconductor manufacturing that was modeled in the recent SIA/BCG joint report, Turning the Tide for Semiconductor Manufacturing in the U.S.1551012.22.2.1 Jobs multiplierBeyond its GDP impact, the U.S. semiconductor industry supported 1.85 million jobs throughout the economy in 2020. While different industries affect the U.S. economy in different ways, a useful metric to compare those industries is by evaluating the jobs multiplier. Employment multipliers represent the total jobs generated as a result of 1 job in the specified industry. For example, the semiconductor jobs multiplier is 6.7, which means that for every direct job in the semiconductor industry, an additional 5.7 jobs are supported in other industries.The number itself reflects 1) what the industry needs to purchase in order to make its productthe indirect, or supply-chain effect, and 2) the value of the industry's labor income, profits and what each household consumes as a result of earning incomethe induced effect. The multiplier of 6.7 ranks in the 85th percentile for all detailed industry jobs multipliers. By comparison, the median value of all 534 detailed industries was 3.7. The following chart highlights semiconductor manufacturing along with other industries and their respective jobs multipliers.FIG. 5: Multipliers of U.S. semiconductor industry compared to other U.S. industriesEmployment multiplierComputer storage device mfg. Aircraft mfg. Semiconductor mfg. Motor vehicle parts mfg.Oil and gas extraction Railroad rolling stock mfg. Cement mfg.Iron and steel forging Motor vehicle body mfg. Air transportation Water, sewage and other systems Motion picture and video industries HospitalsLegal services Warehousing and storage Amusement parks and arcadesSource: IMPLANFIG. 6: Composition of the semiconductor workforceThe semiconductor workforce is represented in 49 states and Washington, D.C.3. THE SEMICONDUCTOR WORKFORCEThe semiconductor industry is a significant employer in the U.S. In 2020, we estimate the size of the workforce at 277,000 inclusive of workers in research and fabrication facilities where semiconductors are designed and manufactured. Semiconductor integrated device manufacturers, pure-play foundries, and other establishments involved in semiconductor manufacturing directly employed nearly 185,000 U.S. workers. In addition, we estimate the employment by fabless semiconductor design firms accounts for an additional 92,000 workers in the U.S.Workers in the semiconductor industry are highly productive, and wages reflect this at $170,000 annual income on average in 2020, placing them well above the average income earners in the U.S. In this section, we examine the occupation profile of the industry to get an enhanced sense of the types of sk川s and education that workers need to be employed in the industry. Additionally, we explore the workforce characteristics to better understand who the people are that support the industry. But first, we explore the geographic distribution of the workforce across the U.S.3.1 Semiconductor workforce by stateThe semiconductor industry directly employed an estimated 277,000 workers in the U.S. in 2020. The semiconductor workforce is represented in 49 states and Washington, D.C. The total state workforce is largest in a handful of Western and Southwestern states including California, Oregon, and Arizona with Texas accounting for a large workforce presence, as well.FIG. 7： Rank of top 15 semiconductor workforces by stateRankStateSemiconductor employmentShare of U.S. semiconductor employmentRankStateSemiconductor employmentShare of U.S. semiconductor employment1California63,30023%9North Carolina7,9003%2Texas43,80016%10Washington5,0002%3Oregon40,30015%11Virginia4,1001%4Arizona28,90010%12Ohio4,0001%5Florida12,9005%13New Mexico4,0001%6Idaho12,3004%14Utah3,7001%7Massachusetts12,2004%15Pennsylvania3,3001%8New York10,2004%Source: Oxford Economics1. INTRODUCTIONWith its origins in the latter part of the 20th century, the semiconductor industry has grown to become one of the most important segments of the global economy. Today, semiconductors are found in nearly every electronic device, including phones, cars, and appliances. Semiconductors enable nearly every industry, reflected by global sales of over $440 b川ion in 2020 alone.Today, semiconductor companies are producing more chips than ever before. The success and growth in computers and software have subsequently helped to drive growth in the semiconductor industry. The U.S. semiconductor industry is substantial, directly contributing $246.4 billion to U.S. GDP and directly employing over 277,000 workers in 2020. However, the economic contribution of the semiconductor industry extends far beyond fabrication facilities (tabs) or research facilities where its products are designed and manufactured. The strong demand for all types of chips facilitates the need for a broader domestic support ecosystem including manufacturing equipment, materials, design services, testing labs, and R&D activity. This ecosystem creates activities that generate additional economic value throughout the U.S. economy.Now, more than ever, there is a need to expand semiconductor R&D, design, and manufacturing in the U.S. By supporting the expansion of the U.S. semiconductor industry, nearly all other domestic sectors will benefit. Whether it is increased demand for semiconductor equipment, tools, and materials, or a more steady supply of chips for downstream industries, semiconductor R&D, design, and manufacturing is an integral part of the U.S. economy. In fact, we estimate that over 300 different downstream sectors of the economy accounting for a total of 26.5 million American jobs make purchases from and are therefore enabled by the U.S. semiconductor industry. This is done by tracing purchases of semiconductors as inputs into the production of other products. This includes industries such as aircraft manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and printing.For this study, Oxford Economics has quantified the economic contribution of the U.S. semiconductor industry by using an economic impact analysis at the national level in the U.S.3 This technique highlights the importance of the semiconductor industry to the U.S. economy in terms of jobs, wages, and GDP. More detail on our methodology is included in the appendix and footnotes in this report In the subsequent sections, we will examine the economic impacts of the U.S. semiconductor industry and a federal funding program to incentivize domestic manufacturing in detail.For the purposes of this report and the domestic employment and GDP figures contained in it, the U.S. semiconductor industry includes all semiconductor companies and their establishments in the United States whether they are U.S. headquartered firms or foreign owned firms with operations in the United States. Similarly, the U.S. semiconductor industry data in this report does not include U.S. firms' activities and establishments outside of the United States.3.1.1 Location quotientsA location quotient (LQ) for an industry helps to illustrate how concentrated it is in one state by comparison to others. A location quotient that is equal to one indicates that the state's industry concentration is equal to the national concentration of the same industry. Industries with above-average location quotients (greater than 1.0) indicate that a region has a higher concentration in the production of that good or service, relative to the rest of the nation.A value of 1.5 indicates that industry output within the region is 1.5 times more concentrated than the U.S. average. A location quotient below 1.0 indicates that industry output within the region is less concentrated compared to the U.S. average.Note, high employment states do not necessarily result in high location quotients, as this statistic is relative to national employment. For example, if the semiconductor industry makes up 0.50 percent of New Mexico's workforce and only 0.20 percent of output in the U.S., then New Mexico's LQ for the semiconductor workforce would be 2.5 (0.50%/0.20%).As noted above, the semiconductor workforce is largest in California, Texas, and Oregon. However, the states with high LQ values include Idaho, Arizona, and New Mexico. This indicates, for example, that the workforce of Idaho is more reliant on the semiconductor industry compared to California, even though California has a larger semiconductor workforce by volume.FIG. 8: Top states by workforce location quotients (LQ)02.002.0Location quotient4.06.08.0OregonArizona10.012.0New MexicoThe semiconductor workforce is highly concentrated in West Coast and Mountain states such as Oregon, Idaho, and Arizona.CaliforniaTexasMassachusettsVermontUtahMaineSource: Oxford EconomicsOccupational profileThe occupation profile of the semiconductor industry describes the types of jobs that are employed in the industry. The roles and responsibilities of employees are many and varied. They are assemblers and fabricators, maintenance and repair workers, logisticians, management analysts, software developers, engineers, electricians, and procurement clerks among others. The major occupation group that has the largest share of employment within the industry is production occupations, which account for about 39 percent of workers in the industry. Together, these job functions make up more than half of the semiconductor workforce.Beyond the production capacity the semiconductor indus