交通规划交通规划课程设计.doc

交通规划交通规划课程设计 研究成果有较大的实 50 用价值，成果能反映出作者很好地掌握了交通规划课程的基础理论和知识。总分成绩等级指导教师评语：指导教师签名：批阅日期：7目录绪论2第一章现状分析3一 土地利用现状3二 交通系统现状4第二章通道交通需求预测5一 预测的思路与方法5二 交通生成预测6三 交通分布预测7四 交通方式分担预测12五 交通分配预测14六 社会经济发展预测14第三章过江隧道建设规模分析论证17一方案分析17二结果分析18第四章总结18附录19附录 1：灰色预测模型的求解程序191绪论目前，长沙市中心城区利用小区间最短路的数据，利用transcad 软件可以绘制出绘制居民出行OD 期望线图。点击tools 工具，选择Geograph analysis 菜单里的子菜单desire lines。结果图2.3 如下图 2.3居民出行期望 OD图计算1.524Dataview 选择= 0.9 。然后用重力模型进行交通分布。数据40zone-atrac-pro-blanceProduction选 择 blance-productionAttraction选 择blance-attraction Factors 函数选择 inverse 函数。b 的取值为 0.725，点击 OK 得到交通分布表 2.49表 2.3小区居民出行最短路单位：千米123456789101112131415161718192021222324252610.000.831.151.351.211.731.211.981.593.534.022.972.813.043.753.503.843.743.493.633.953.923.774.003.813.9020.830.000.761.831.301.371.411.621.673.263.752.712.542.783.483.243.583.473.233.363.683.663.503.743.553.6331.150.760.001.931.390.831.501.031.402.863.352.302.142.373.082.833.173.072.822.963.283.253.103.333.143.2341.351.831.930.001.392.170.992.021.433.093.582.542.372.613.323.073.413.313.063.193.513.493.333.573.383.4651.211.301.391.390.001.320.481.170.752.693.182.131.972.202.912.663.002.902.652.793.113.082.933.162.973.0661.731.370.832.171.320.001.430.560.972.422.911.871.701.942.642.392.742.632.392.522.842.822.662.902.712.7971.211.411.500.990.481.430.001.280.862.563.052.011.842.082.792.542.882.772.532.662.982.962.803.042.852.9381.981.621.032.021.170.561.280.000.822.282.761.721.561.792.502.252.592.492.242.382.692.672.522.752.562.6591.591.671.401.430.750.970.860.820.002.102.591.551.381.612.322.072.422.312.072.202.522.502.342.582.392.47103.533.262.863.092.692.422.562.282.100.001.350.801.081.371.670.991.321.661.411.551.471.891.691.921.731.82114.023.753.353.583.182.913.052.762.591.350.001.161.421.712.001.170.811.991.621.881.142.221.582.261.981.71122.972.712.302.542.131.872.011.721.550.801.160.000.400.881.350.801.121.341.091.231.271.571.371.601.411.50132.812.542.142.371.971.701.841.561.381.081.420.400.000.501.040.891.231.030.890.921.341.241.161.291.181.29143.042.782.372.612.201.942.081.791.611.371.710.880.500.001.011.181.521.041.171.211.631.031.451.351.471.58153.753.483.083.322.912.642.792.502.321.672.001.351.041.010.001.061.820.471.050.781.440.711.090.740.851.19163.503.242.833.072.662.392.542.252.070.991.170.800.891.181.060.000.981.050.510.940.961.281.001.311.121.13173.843.583.173.413.002.742.882.592.421.320.811.121.231.521.820.980.001.811.441.700.952.041.402.071.791.53183.743.473.073.312.902.632.772.492.311.661.991.341.031.040.471.051.810.001.040.771.430.431.080.590.811.15193.493.232.823.062.652.392.532.242.071.411.621.090.891.171.050.511.441.040.000.930.761.270.791.311.120.92203.633.362.963.192.792.522.662.382.201.551.881.230.921.210.780.941.700.770.930.001.040.730.560.540.390.69213.953.683.283.513.112.842.982.692.521.471.141.271.341.631.440.960.951.430.761.040.001.630.721.431.110.85223.923.663.253.493.082.822.962.672.501.892.221.571.241.030.711.282.040.431.270.731.630.001.000.430.651.00233.773.503.103.332.932.662.802.522.341.691.581.371.161.451.091.001.401.080.790.560.721.000.000.810.490.21244.003.743.333.573.162.903.042.752.581.922.261.601.291.350.741.312.070.591.310.541.430.430.810.000.460.81253.813.553.143.382.972.712.852.562.391.731.981.411.181.470.851.121.790.811.120.391.110.650.490.460.000.49263.903.633.233.463.062.792.932.652.471.821.711.501.291.581.191.131.531.150.920.690.851.000.210.810.490.0010表 2.4居民出行OD 分布表单位:人次/ 天1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526.0010.010.829.71.123.69.623.518.515.917.68.917.34.53.313.15.811.610.84.110.840.17.222.07.33.72.9220.40.018.50.717.46.317.212.511.212.46.312.33.22.39.24.18.27.62.97.628.25.115.45.12.64.738.78.40.01.338.111.637.024.721.924.112.524.36.34.518.17.915.914.85.614.854.99.930.010.5.02.9414.726.834.20.013.86.414.612.010.411.55.911.53.02.28.63.87.67.12.77.126.24.714.34.82.48.256.810.05.70.70.00.30.60.50.40.40.20.40.10.10.30.10.30.20.10.20.90.20.50.20.10.360.20.40.20.60.50.0105.065.254.459.331.361.315.811.244.819.539.436.913.936.5135.324.573.824.12.47.5730.452.635.977.33.227.60.019.315.316.78.717.14.43.112.65.511.110.33.910.338.06.920.86.93.52.789.714.98.528.31.221.623.20.021.123.012.224.06.24.317.47.615.314.35.414.152.49.528.69.54.87.9911.119.012.830.11.338.510.926.10.017.89.618.94.83.413.65.911.911.24.211.040.77.422.27.43.76.0109.014.38.825.51.124.79.427.016.50.010.818.74.73.415.66.512.111.54.311.940.77.522.37.53.87.4116.410.56.418.20.716.96.117.913.520.00.016.74.23.214.57.411.110.73.912.637.67.520.67.03.78.7125.99.85.916.90.615.55.616.412.316.99.40.011.88.136.915.128.527.510.227.595.217.752.017.8.84.11314.924.615.242.81.640.514.443.132.844.946.455.70.03.413.95.712.111.54.410.640.07.321.77.33.68.2145.99.86.117.10.616.35.817.413.316.017.011.45.50.015.26.414.312.54.811.850.38.125.58.14.02.1156.911.37.019.70.718.66.619.815.017.619.010.724.34.10.00.30.90.60.30.62.70.41.50.50.21.8160.30.50.30.90.00.80.30.90.60.80.90.50.90.30.80.015.717.75.715.351.810.028.39.74.97.0177.211.97.320.50.819.16.820.215.321.523.612.222.35.54.58.00.016.96.220.158.511.732.011.5.92.9189.115.09.125.91.023.98.625.319.025.734.614.326.46.64.923.117.30.02.55.730.54.115.34.52.16.3193.04.93.08.40.37.82.88.26.27.78.44.49.02.42.47.32.86.00.010.131.76.517.35.93.26.1204.47.34.412.60.511.74.212.49.311.713.06.713.73.42.713.24.49.63.50.032.66.319.77.13.02.6213.86.23.810.70.49.93.610.57.99.910.85.611.72.92.69.53.69.17.87.90.010.125.38.95.06.6226.310.46.418.00.716.66.017.513.217.521.99.718.14.63.716.37.513.114.45.044.10.030.88.84.023.2235.38.85.315.20.614.05.014.811.113.514.97.615.64.43.912.64.916.010.34.710.07.70.07.04.66.6243.96.43.911.10.410.23.710.88.210.111.95.711.42.92.59.84.08.68.63.79.331.118.30.07.213.6259.014.99.025.70.923.68.524.918.722.925.212.926.26.96.521.28.424.717.58.817.895.114.016.80.05.2265.18.35.114.40.513.34.814.010.613.014.57.414.83.73.512.34.812.310.15.410.646.19.028.34.60.011四 交通方式分担预测方式分担预测采用lot 模型，参考长沙市公共交通规划的研究结论。204 年长沙市公共交通规划中对居民出行方式结构的调查分析与预测如下表2.5 所示：表 2.5居民出行方式结构的调查分析与预测方式步行自行车公交方式小汽车及其他日总量比例日总量比例日总量比例日总量比例年限（万人次） （ ） （万人次）（ ） （万人次） （ ） （万人次）（ ）205204.363983.8416115.2822120.52232021256.2836106.7915177.9825170.85242021309.8632116.2012290.4930251.7526根据方式预测结论，采用地区间模型获得机动车高峰小时出行OD 分布，将全天的出行OD 转化为机动车高峰小时出行OD 要注意下面4 个方面的问题：1） 机动车的组成：公交车方式和小汽车方式；2） 车辆换算系数：以小汽车为标准车，将公交车折算为标准小汽车；3） 车辆的载客系数：参考国内外的取值或做简单的实地调查；（ 4）高峰小时流量比：可参考长沙市的实地调查数据，207 年和 2021 年长沙市内主要道路的高峰小时流量比如下表2.6 所示。表 2.6 长沙市内主要道路的高峰小时流量比道路五一大道三一大道芙蓉路人民路八一路年度韶山路2077866（24h高峰小时流量比）20219.5109.4（12h高峰小时流量比）由于机动车由公交车和小汽车构成，而且以小汽车为标准车辆，则公交车的转算系数为2.5 ，又根据惯例公交车的载客系数为35，小汽车为1.5，又根据长沙市几条路段的调查可得高峰小时的流量比取10。则转换系数为0.3.12.5/35+0.26.1/1.5=0.0195 ，得到机动车高峰小时出行OD 分布数据如下表2.712表 2.7机动车出行OD分布表单位： PCU/h123456789101112131415161718192021222324252611862551264435163147131696415160703699425433362483577442624135201535781221258191110102244981144110149406853997756123704131801658136211171971206761152627036790244232604634744225453929549491040529408397212195475191221921328778132102191148108236134795181119104527181976167807934365484363352716771877302770392189169442182204719025168118901661299520411769716410016612463951591626862158657336991254333604735754325829223155618981990315425190169451187208719125169119901661299520411769926417334218681026324431154136374156172615620355967313310477164955510176127244127463017424519725971822223193173758415211323615111724314383111931382611374663185256203305664219237103396448916511834216214726015610412967013670236410014411817713921715351782024788641258365133794613178130257132469518927622825421410084111129333610218214121517613127716190145036713711885274616456171993718630443456603380412315342547251120334737444010046586160423838486332984923161339618496347813218614923821754419219410349882381222401511282411478817634585451218618567981432137681312130574012254518753351811885162853415115161129153137348162198162142091331311683111134011748019112811558124001111561251551433621621638322222741032391271272021238520412956291143405645544812459594787334487171611439939211138115381239010915112016620535813214272253316516610511715020913710022409293556292914143945484354994531109505710436626865644104885484261794725319237151975122496997779198207899451341524998100167102193151166242241603031595768214297236273248605272325233603762482233383336122765192072572529851225070977791852069095612513061781331241411232959226362649261126354939454810143463647524464578531161017913五 交通分配预测交通分配预测用户均衡交通分配模型，相关公式为：am i n z( )at a ( )d0s.t.f kijtijkf kij0aijijf ka ,kijk式中： a 路段 a 的车辆数；t a( a ) 路段 a 的广义出行时间；f kij 小区 i 到小区 j 的第 k 条路径上的车辆数；t ij 小区 i 到小区 j 的机动车出行量；ijij1 ，否则ij0 。a ,k 常系数，当路段 a 属于从小区 i 到小区 j 的第 k 条路径时，a ,ka ,k利用 transcad 软件进行分配得到的网络流量图2.4 如下图 2.4网络流量图六 社会经济发展预测社会经济发展预测是开展弹性系数法预测的基础，本次设计主要针对GDP 数据开展预测，要注意对14GDP 数据开展组合预测，如可以采用指数、回归分析法、增长率法、灰色预测法等方法进行。表 2.8长沙市历年 GDP发展变化年份GDP 总值（亿元）年份GDP 总值（亿元）1998542.852051519.901999588.442061790.6620656.412072190.25201728.0820213000.98202812.920213744.8203928.22202145002041108.85在这里我们按照按回归分析法预测得到以后几年的GDP 发展变化趋势及相关数据根据长沙市经济发展历史资料，进行线性回归得到从1998 年开始的回归方程：y306.8 613116，相关系数为0.8424 ，为年数， y 为 GDP,得到 2021 年的经济总量为 6620 亿元， 2033 年的经济总量为 10608.40 亿元。按回归分析法得到历年 GDP 发展变化趋势图 2.5GDP发展线性预测5000）元亿（PDG40003000201000y = 306.8 - 6131162R = 0.8424019961998202022042062021202120-1000时间（年）图 2.5GDP发展趋势图按回归分析法计算出预测期经济指标的数值，计算结果如表2.9表 2.9线性回归 - 历年 GDP总值年份GDP总值年份GDP总值年份GDP总值年份GDP总值（亿元）（亿元）（亿元）（亿元）1998542.852072190.25205392.8202581541999588.4420213000.98205699.620268460.820656.4120213744.8206006.420278767.6201728.0820214500206313.220289074.4202812.920213858.82021662020299381.2203928.22204165.620216926.8203096882041第 90 页 共 90 页