中国高铁的崛起.docx

No£n< amsoosao-qnCLRail DeveloomentMartha Lawrence, Richard Bullock, and Ziming LiuWORLD BANK GROUPAbout the AuthorsRichard Bullock has over 40 years of experience in the railway sector, covering costing and pricing, project analysis, railway restructuring, and regulatory issues. He has worked on over 50 railways worldwide, in every continent except North America, and has worked in China since 1987. Before becoming an independent consultant, Mr. Bullock was a director of Travers Morgan Australia and, in addition to the World Bank, has worked on projects for several other international institutions. He has worked on seven high-speed rail projects in China with the World Bank, as well as five outside China.Mr. Bullock has an MA in mathematics from Cambridge University and an MA in operational research from Brunel University.Martha Lawrence is the leader of the Railways Community of Practice at the World Bank and a team leader for the World Bank's technical assistance and lending programs in China and India. She has over 30 years of experience in the railway sector, with extensive knowledge in railway restructuring, railway finance, and transport regulation. Ms. Lawrence led the development of the World Bank's resource on railway reform, Railway Reform: A Toolkit for Improving Rail Sector Performance, and the report Attracting Capital for Rail Development in China. She has prepared business, restructuring, and financing plans for railways worldwide and advised private sector investors on over US$8 billion in structured lease financing of transit rolling stock and infrastructure.Ms. Lawrence has a BA in economics from Northwestern University and an MBA in finance and transportation management from Northwestern University.Ziming Liu joined the World Bank in 2017 as a transport consultant in the Beijing office. She has been involved in the World Bank's technical assistance and lending programs in China and Central Asia in the transport sector since then. She has contributed to multiple World Bank studies, including the upcoming flagship report Innovative China: New Drivers of Groivth, the study on land-based transport in Europe-Asia trade, and other studies on China transport and logistics.xiBeforejoining the World Bank, Ms. Liu worked asa student research assistant at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Hong Kong. She applied advanced geographic information system techniques and big data analysis to urban economics and geography research in an innovative way.Ms. Liu's current interests are railways, freight and logistics, transport economics, and mega infrastructure projects.She has a BEng in civil engineering from the University of Hong Kong and a master's degree in city planning from the University of Pennsylvania.AbbreviationsCRC CRCC CREC CRH EIRR EMU FIRR FYP GDP GHG HSRJv km kph kWh MLTRP MOR MOT NDRC NRA PDL pkm RA SASACChina Railway CorporationChina Railway Construction Corporation Ltd.China Railway Group Ltd. China Rail Highspeed economic internal rate of return electric multiple unit (trainset) financial internal rate of return Five-Year Plan gross domestic product greenhouse gas high-speed rail joint venture kilometer kilometer per hour kilowatt-hourMedium-and Long-Term Railway Plan Ministry of Railways Ministry of TransportNational Development and Reform Commission National Railway Administration passenger dedicated line passenger-kilometer Regional AdministrationState-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration CommissionvOSL vOT Yvalue of Statistical Life value of time Chinese yuanxiiiExecutive SummarySince 2008 China has put into operation over 25,000 kilometers (km) of dedicated high-speed railway (HSR) lines, far more than the total high-speed lines operating in the rest of the world. The World Bank has provided financing for some 2,600 km of these lines, beginning in 2006. Since then, the World Bank has evaluated and monitored seven projects, five of which are already in service. This report builds on a report prepared by China Railway Design Corporation, together with analysis and experience gained during the World Bank's work. It summarizes China's experience with HSR and presents key lessons for other countries that may be considering high-speed rail investments.China was the first country with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita below US$7,000 to invest in developing an HSR network. China is unique in many ways, including size (9.6 million km2); long distances between North and South, and East and West; the current stage in its economic development (GDP of US$7,590 per capita in 2017); and substantial population density (141 people per km2).1 China has many large cities with population greater than 500,000, located at distances (between 200 and 500 km) that are well suited for HSR.In 2008 the first fully HSR line in China was opened, between Beijing and Tianjin, coincidingwith the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Since then, China has opened 25,162 km of high-speed lines (as of end-2017) with design speeds ranging from 200 to 350 km per hour(kph) .It is by far the largest passenger-dedicated HSR network in the world and currently operates over 2,600 pairs of China Rail Highspeed (CRH)2 trains each day.The high-speed services represent a radical change in the provision of passenger services by China Railways. Not only have travel times been markedly reduced, but capacity has also significantly expanded. For the first time, passengers on most HSR routes can now turn up and go, except at peak periods. Over 10 years, the CRH service has carried over 7 billion high-speed passengers, second only to the 11 billion carried by the Japanese Shinkansen over the past 50 years. CRH currently carries 56 percent of the 8.3 million passengers using the China nonurban rail network each day.The current level of demand, at 1.7 billion passengers per year, confirms the strong need for such service along core corridors and the willingness of many to pay substantially higher fares than charged for conventional intercity trains. The total annual volume carried is already far larger than on the FrenchTGv services and the Japanese Shinkansen services. It will continue to grow rapidly as the many lines under construction are completed and as urban incomes and population in China continue to rise. Traffic on conventional rail services has continued to grow despite diversion to high-speed services, but at a very slow pace (0.5 percent per year). Compared with other leading countries with HSR services, China has achieved a strong start with good tra仔ic densities at an early stage of implementation.A broad range of travelers of different income levels select the HSR for its short travel time, comfort, convenience, safety, and punctuality. It facilitates labor mobility, family visits, tourism, and expansion of social networks. Nearly half of the passengers travel for business purposes.By offering a new service quality at a very different price point, China has broadened the range of intercity options, enabling a better matching of supply and demand. This has freed up considerable capacity on conventional trains, on which tickets were formerly very difficult to secure, for lower-income groups who are more price sensitive.During the past decade, China has accumulated considerable experience in planning, constructing, and operating high-speed lines. This report summarizes key lessons from this experience that may be applicable in other countries.The first chapter outlines the background to the development of HSR in China and the key role played by the Medium- and Long-Term Railway Plan (MLTRP). This plan, first approved in 2004 with revisions in 2008 and 2016, looks up to 15 years ahead and is complemented by a series of Five-Year Plans, prepared as part of the general planning cycle. These plans are rarely changed once approved. The initial Medium and Long Term Development Plan planned for an HSR network of 12,000 km by 2020. The 2016 revision is now aiming for a network of 30,000 km by 2020, 38,000 km by 2025, and 45,000 km by 2030 (NDRC 2016). The development of a well-analyzed long-term plan, strongly supported by government, provides a clear framework for development of the system.The lines havebeen constructed from the start through special-purpose asset construction and management companies. These companies are normally joint venturesbetweenthecentral and provincialgovernments.Thisstructure secures the active participation of local government in planning and financing the projects. Cooperation among rail manufacturers, universities, research institutions, laboratories, and engineering centers enables capacity development, rapid technological advancement, and localization of technology.The second chapter discusses the key choices in service design. Service frequency must balance operating cost and use ofline capacity with attractiveness to potential passengers. Most HSR lines have at least an hourly service between 7:00a.m. and midnight. This level of service requires an average load of4 million to 6 million passengers per year throughout its route to be operated efficiently. On most lines, the China Railway Corporation (CRC) operates a mixture of express and stopping services. Few services stop at all intermediate stations. The choice of service frequency is matched to the volume of passengers using the station. Line speed is determined by balancing the line's role in the network, market demand, and engineering conditions with investment cost.Fares are competitive with bus and airfares. Chinese HSR fares are low compared to other countries, which enables HSR to attract passengers from all income groups.The third chapter analyzes the market for HSR. It gives examples of HSR's ability to attract passengers from other modes (including conventional rail). In corridors in China, HSR typically captures up to half of the conventional rail traffic, most of the intercity bus traffic (except for short distances), and a large share of air traffic up to 800 km. In China, HSR also generates 10-20 percent new trips that were not previously madeby any mode.3 Although halfofthe trips are made for business purposes, the low fares enable HSR to attract passengers for all trip purposes and from all income groups.The fourth chapter describes the procedures China has adopted when constructing new lines. One of the most striking lessons for other countries is the speed with which public sector organizations can build high-quality infrastructure when given clear guidance and responsibilities. The Chinese HSR network hasbeenbuiltatanaveragecostof$17million to $21 million per km abou t two- thirds of the cost in other countrieseven though many Chinese lines have a high proportion of their route on viaducts or in tunnels.Although labor costs are lower in China, a key factor in the lower cost and rapid and efficient HSR construction has been the standardization of designs and procedures. The steady stream of projects has also encouraged the creation of a capable, competitive supply industry. The large HSR investment program, which does not change once approved, has also encouraged the development of innovative and competitive capacity for equipment manufacture and construction and the ability to amortize the capital cost of construction equipment over multiple projects.HSR projectmanagershaveclear responsibilitiesand delegated authority to carry them out. They typically stay for the full duration of the project, ensuring a clear chain of responsibility for the implementation of the project. Their compensation includes a significant component of incentive compensation related to performance.The fifth chapter discusses the procedures China has adopted when commissioning new lines and its approach to ensuring operational safety. China manages safety risks throughout the project life cycle by assuring appropriate technology in the design phase, quality construction in the building phase, and thorough inspection and maintenance in the operational phase.Toensuresafeoperation, China collectsasset condition data through a mix of physical inspection and dynamic testing with instrumented equipment. These data are analyzed centrally to identify maintenance requirements. During operation, a test train is run at the start of each day's operations to check the infrastructure. An instrumented train is run every 10 days to check condition. A four-hour window is provided every night for maintenance.The sixth chapter explains the financing of the system. As might be expected, the financial picture varies from line to line. Heavily used 350 kph lines with averagetrafficdensitiesof more than40 millionpassengers peryear and average revenue per passenger-kilometer (pkm) of Y 0.50 (US$0,074) are able to generate enough ticket revenue to pay for train operations, maintenance, and debt service.In contrast, many lines in China with traffic density oflO million to 15million passengers peryear, especially 250 kph lines with average pkm revenue ofY 0.28 (US$0.041), can barely cover train operations and maintenance, and will be unable to contribute toward their debtservice costs for many years. These results should not be interpreted as demonstrating that a 350 kph line is inherently more financially viable than a comparable 250 kph line. The main reason for the disparity in financial viability is the pricing policy that has been adopted in China. This issue has been recognized, and greater pricing flexibility is now being allowed.Options to improve cost coverage for loss-making lines include (i) increasing fares for250 kph lines where traffic demand permits, (ii)increasingnonfare revenue, and (iii) providing government subsidy. Financial restructuring actions include (i) grouping feeder lines with main lines to pool revenues and costs and (ii) reprofiling principle repayments to shift payments to later years when traffic volumes are greater. Overall, the financial rate of return for the network as it was at end-2015 is estimated at 6 percent,4 a return on par with the cost of financing of CRC.5The seventh chapter discusses the economic impact of the HSR services. These services provide major benefits to users in terms of reduced travel time, increased service frequencies, greater availability of seats, and improved comfort.Economic benefits also accrue from reductions in operating cost as users of higher-cost modes such as au tomobile and air transfer to HSR. These transfers also generally reduce externalities (accidents, highway congestion, and greenhouse gases).6 Benefits also derive from the deferral of the need to invest in expanding the capacity of other modes as a result of demand transferring to HSR.Othereconomicbenefitsareassociatedwithimprovedregiona