首席经济学家2021年全球展望.docx

ContentsDrivers Shaping the New Context4Emerging Policy Pathways for Recovery and Transformation 10Fiscal policy 10Monetary policy 12Competition policy 14Multilateral cooperation 15The Outlook for Prosperity, People, Planet and Institutions in 2021 17References20Acknowledgments22How to manage a transition from general emergency support to transformative fiscal stimulus and which elements should be made permanent as part of a new social contract?Governments in high-income countries stepped in either to support employment directly, as in Europe, or to sustain disposable incomes with more generous unemployment benefits, as in the United States, thereby avoiding the mistakes that were made in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.Policy-makers will eventually be challenged to find ways of transitioning from general support measures to more targeted measures that favour sustainable sectors. The majority of survey respondents feel that the second half of 2021 will be the appropriate time to start making the transition, while some feel that governments should wait until the first half of 2022. It has been pointed out that the transition will need to be extremely carefully managed, since there is a significant risk of a delayed wave of bankruptcies, in particular in Europe where initial emergency support was generous. Allianz, 2020b, and Tooze, 2020.Policy-makers will eventually be challenged to find ways of transitioning from general support measures to more targeted measures that favour sustainable sectors. The majority of survey respondents feel that the second half of 2021 will be the appropriate time to start making the transition, while some feel that governments should wait until the first half of 2022. It has been pointed out that the transition will need to be extremely carefully managed, since there is a significant risk of a delayed wave of bankruptcies, in particular in Europe where initial emergency support was generous. Allianz, 2020b, and Tooze, 2020.Figure 4: "In light of the recent vaccine availability, what will be the right point in time to phase out general wage support programmes in favour of measures supporting structural change?"SourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (24 responses).An additional consideration is to what extent innovations in social safety nets will be anchored more permanently. For example, the crisis response in some countries extended coverage of unemployment benefits for freelancers and gig workers. Leaving these measures in place would go some way towards adapting the welfare state to the needs of the new economy and building a new social contract.Monetary policyMonetary policy is currently playing a critical supporting role in providing room to manoeuvre for public spending. Since this is happening in a macro setting that has shifted significantly in recent years, there are two key open questions regarding the implications of current monetary policy action for central bank independence, and whether, in supporting the recovery, the scopeof central bank mandates should extend to contributing directly to a green transformation.To what extent will central bank independence emerge weakened from the crisis?The ever-growing use of quantitative easing (QE) and recent moves to broaden central bank mandates point to a coming paradigm shift in monetary policy and its interconnection with government spending. Central bank financing of public debt in the form of QE has become an important part of central banks* toolboxes. Global QE at the end of last year stood at $17 trillion and continues to intertwine fiscal and monetary policy ever more closely.29Recent months have also seen significant shifts as far as the primacy of inflation targets is concerned. In August, the US Federal Reserve added maximum sustainable employment as a target to its policy framework, giving itself the dual mandate of ensuring price stability and employment. Others may be following suit. For example, politicians in Indonesia and South Korea have asked for labour market stability to be included as part of the mandate in their central bank's charter.30In a best-case scenario, stimulus will revive economic growth to such an extent that growth rates remain above interest rates, allowing governments to repay interest and principals. There is, however, also a low-growth scenario, where a retreat of globalization and emerging demographic shortages in the labour force will push inflation beyond 2%, while government exerts pressure on the central bank to prioritize other targets over inflation management.There is a growing number of voices who feel that we may have reached “peak central bank independencen.31 While opinions were divided, the majority of respondents to the Chief Economists Survey felt that a reduction in central bank independence will indeed be a likely consequence of the crisis.SourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (24 responses).How much should central banks be involved in the transformation to a greener economy?In line with efforts by a growing number of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) investors, the European Central Bank has recently started investigating options for greening the asset purchases it is making as part of its monetary policy interventions.The president of the ECB has suggested that climate change targets have relevance for thebank's primary mandate to safeguard price stability as opposed to simply for EU economic policies, its secondary mandate. She has therefore suggested that assets bought by the ECB as part of QE interventions should be tilted towards green assets. The Economist, 2020a.bank's primary mandate to safeguard price stability as opposed to simply for EU economic policies, its secondary mandate. She has therefore suggested that assets bought by the ECB as part of QE interventions should be tilted towards green assets. The Economist, 2020a.Opinions among members of the Chief Economists Community on whether environmental considerations should play a direct role in monetary policy decisions diverge, yet lean in favour of greening.SourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (23 responses).Competition policyWhile there has been momentum on both sides of the Atlantic on reigning in the growing market power of digital companies, an important open question is whether competition authorities5 toolboxes have been sufficiently upgraded to create a more level playing field for the digital economy.How effective are current approaches likely to be in curtailing abuse of market dominance in the digital economy?The EU has been pioneering new approaches to competition policy in the digital economy for some years. Momentum is also gathering in the United States, where authorities last year started looking more closely at new types of data-drivenmarket power and the ways in which it is being exploited. There is reason to believe that the recent momentum in antitrust action against the market dominance of some digital players will be sustained and built out under the new US administration, adding to ongoing and European efforts in the area. A recent report suggests that 2021 will likely see more scrutiny of acquisitions by tech giants and tougher regulation to prevent abuse of market dominance, for example in the form of excluding competitors from access to platforms. Freshfields, 2021.Respondents to the Chief Economists Survey felt that it was too early to tell whether current antitrust efforts will be sufficient to effectively level the playing field of the digital economy.Recognizing the size of the challenge, US, UK and EU antitrust authorities have been allocated increased budgets in 2021 and will be dedicating more staff to the investigation of digital economy market power. Espinoza, 2021, and Freshfields, 2021. An additional avenue will be to further foster technological efforts that aim to return control over data to consumers. Thornhill, 2020. Building out both approaches should eventually combine into a powerful, two-pronged tool to ensure wide participation in markets and a more equal division of the gains of digitalization.SourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (24 responses).Multilateral cooperationThe outcome of the US election has given a new lease on life to a number of multilateral organizations. In particular, the incoming US administration has signalled a return of the UnitedStates to the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, and, importantly, the Paris Climate Agreement.Given a revival of multilateral cooperation, what should be top of the agenda?Among the issues on the multilateral agenda that need to be addressed with urgency, survey respondents see by far the greatest urgency in making progress on international efforts to tackle climate change, followed by stemming the tide of rising protectionism and fiscal support to the most vulnerable economies, followed by an agreement on a new architecture for corporate tax.Other areas that were mentioned as requiring multilateral cooperation and guidance included data management, which could involve surveillance technology, wealth inequality, migration, vaccine distribution, cybersecurity and preparation for future pandemics.Figure 8: "Renewed international cooperation is most urgently needed for" (figure shows rank average).SourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (24 responses).Is there a need for a new multilateral mechanism in the post COVID-19 economy?Most survey respondents felt that the first order of business on the international agenda should be a revival and, where necessary, reform of existing international organizations and multilateral mechanisms over the creation of new ones. Additional mechanisms could be needed in future for managing the data economy and surveillance, creating a modern framework for migration and addressing wealth inequality. It was also suggested that additional resources should be allocated for greater international fiscal coordination and to shaping a more equitable form of globalization.The Outlook for Prosperity, People, Planet and Institutions in 2021The drivers of the new context and the policy pathways aiming to address them combine into a complex mix for the 2021 outlook for prosperity, people, the planet and governance.Prosperity: Forecasts for traditional measures of GDP are showing signs of recovery somewhat better than projected a few months earlier thanks to the news of an effective vaccine, with China furthest ahead in the recovery as one of very few economies with positive growth expected for 2020. OECD, 2020. Yet as we have pointed out previously through a proposal to develop a new dashboard for the new economy, a recovery in GDP will be necessary but not sufficient to declare a recovery or indeed mark a leap to something better.People: The pandemic has caused much trauma from the loss of lives and livelihoods on a global scale. The vast majority of Chief Economists consulted for this edition felt that the social fabric in their country has significantly deteriorated over the course of 2020. People have adapted to new situations with impressive speed; however, they will also be carrying the scars of the pandemic experience for some time. The demands on individuals to continue adapting to a new world of work are immense as the pandemic has further accelerated the automation of tasks. Some relief might come from more flexible work arrangements, but also more pressure from new types of remote competition. A K-shaped recovery continues to be a distinct possibility within economies unless governments manage to shape more inclusiveFigure 9: "The social fabric in my country has improved as a consequence of the pandemic.”AgreeStronglyDisagreeSourcesWorld Economic Forum, Chief Economists Survey, January 2021 (24 responses).job creation and enact major reforms to the structure of their social safety nets and the overall social contract. Between high- and low-income economies too, there is a risk of a diverging, or K-shaped, global recovery in the absence of more support to low-income countries.Planet: Environmental risk looms large, yet by now is firmly at the top of many government and business agendas. Environmental concerns are flowing into an increasing number of policy decisions, breaking new ground in areas such as stimulus packages and monetary policy. After resistance around the wearing of masks, there is a question, however, to what extent behavioural change to avoid climate catastrophe will be an effective approach. The rapid success in finding a vaccine suggests that directed innovation could be a powerful complement. An open question is also to what extent net zero goals and accelerating digitalization are on a collision course.Institutions: After years of neglect and decline, World Economic Forum, 2020e. the COVID-19 crisis has made clear the critical importance of both formal and informal, national and global institutions for resilience. Trust in government has been shown to be a critical determinant of compliance with COVID-19 measures and ultimately had a significant impact on infection rates and loss of life. Trust in government and in global institutions will be equally important if measures for an economic transformation are to succeed. Rebuilding this trust will be one of the most difficult challenges post-pandemic, in particular in cases where trust in institutions has been actively destroyed.Multilateral institutions, on the other hand, are likely to see a more rapid reset and revival in 2021, with one of the most important players, the United States, back at the table.Most members of the Chief Economists Community see the biggest risk for 2021 in virus mutations that will slow efforts to contain the pandemic and lead to new lockdowns. There are further policy risks from not calibrating responses to differentiate between the deep structural impact of the pandemic on some sectors vs the mere intermission of activity in other sectors. In addition, there is concern that fiscal stimulus will be phased out too early, but also that doubts arise over debt sustainability. A further risk lies in longer-term repercussions to social mobility from interruptions to education that have mostly fallen on the least well-off as well as growing cross-country and within country inequality.Effective leadership by governments will entail addressing short- and medium-term domestic challenges regarding growth, economic transformation, employment, health, education and societal cohesion,