企业管理TheMultiplierProcessasMarketExchangeProcess英文版.docx

The Mulltipplieer PProccesss as MMarkket Excchannge ProocesssA CConttribbutiion to thee Miicroo Foounddatiion of Keyynessiann MaacrooecoonommicssGangg Goong#. Dept. of economics, Graduate Faculty, New School for Social Research, 65 Fifth Ave. New York, NY 10003. 093992newschool.edu.Feb., 119955The autthorr iss veery graatefful to Edwwardd Neell, Wiillii Seemmller, Duuncaan FFoleey, Davvid Collandder, Joohn Eattwelll, Pauul DDaviidsoon aand Willliaam MMilbbergg foor ttheiir ccommmentts aand sugggesstioons on thee eaarlyy drraftt off thhis papper.The Mulltipplieer PProccesss ass Maarkeet EExchhangge PProccesssA CConttribbutiion to thee Miicroo Foounddatiion of Keyynessiann MaacrooecoonommicssAbsttracctTradditiionaal eequiilibbriuum aanallysiis hhas beeen iincoorreectlly ffounndedd onnce an "orrderringg isssuee" iis cconccernned. Too ciircuumveent thiis pprobblemm, tthe auttonoomouus ddemaand, whhichh haas bbeenn miisseed iin ttradditiionaal mmicrroecconoomicc annalyysiss, hhas to be inttrodduceed iintoo thhe ssysttem as a sstarrtinng ppoinnt oof aa seequeencee off maarkeet eexchhangges. Foolloowinng tthiss diirecctioon, Keyyness's mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan alsso bbe vviewwed as a ddesccripptioon oof tthe proocesss tthrooughh whhichh maarkeet eexchhangges aree geenerrateed. Furrtheer, thee Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomicc reelattionn caan aalsoo bee prroveed wwithhin a mmicrro eeconnomiic cconttextt. (JELL D00, EE0)"Thee coonseensuus iin mmacrroecconoomiccs tthatt prrevaaileed uuntiil tthe earrly 19770s fallterred beccausse oof ttwo flaaws, onne eempiiriccal andd thhe ootheer ttheooretticaal. . Thhe ttheooretticaal fflaww waas tthatt thhe cconssenssus vieew lleftt a chaasm bettweeen mmicrroecconoomicc prrincciplles andd maacrooecoonommic praactiice thaat wwas tooo grreatt too bee inntelllecctuaallyy saatissfyiing." (Mannkiww, 119900, ppp. 16447) I. IIntrroduuctiionLastt twwentty yyearrs hhavee wiitneesseed ttwo oppposiite ressearrch dirrecttionns. Onee, eentiitleed aas NNew Claassiicall, iis tto eexpllainn maacrooecoonommic pheenommenaa baasedd onn ann inndivviduual chooicee-thheorretiic fframmewoork of traadittionnal miccroeeconnomiics thhouggh tthe axiiom of rattionnal exppecttatiion is oftten adoopteed. Thee ottherr iss thhe aatteemptt too reeconnstrructt miicrooecoonommicss soo ass too puut KKeynnesiian maccro-anaalyssis on a ffirmmer fouundaatioon. Thiis ccateegorry iis nnow terrmedd Neew KKeynnesiian. Iss thhe ""chaasm"" sttilll leeft? Wee beelieeve (inndeeed mmanyy beelieeve) "iit iis!"". IIt iis sstilll nnot obvviouus wwhatt iss thhe mmicrro ffounndattionn off Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomiccs.Thiss paaperr wiill preesennt mmy oown conntriibuttionn too thhis subbjecct. I bbeliievee thhe mmicrro ffounndattionn off Keeyneesiaan mmacrroecconoomiccs eexissts in thee coonteext of Keyyness's mulltipplieer pprinncipple. Sppeciificcallly, Keyyness's mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan alsso bbe vviewwed as a ddesccripptioon oof tthe proocesss tthrooughh whhichh maarkeet eexchhangges aree geenerrateed. Thiis cconssideerattionn prroviidess uss a neww thheorretiicall frrameeworrk. Thee waay aan eeconnomyy opperaatess iss coomplleteely diffferrentt frrom thee waay ddesccribbed by traadittionnal equuiliibriium anaalyssis. Evven thee coonceept of equuiliibriium hass too bee chhangged. Yeet tthe neww thheorretiicall frrameeworrk pprovvideed hheree tuurnss ouut tto bbe mmuchh suuperriorr inn thhe ssensse tthatt maany myssterriess off trradiitioonall miicrooecoonommicss auutommatiicallly dissapppearr annd ffurttherr, tthe Keyynessiann maacrooecoonommic rellatiion is exaactlly sspeccifiied in a mmicrro eeconnomiic cconttextt.The papper is orgganiizedd ass foolloows. Fiirstt, II wiill raiise an isssue, whhichh I bellievve hhas lonng bbeenn suupprresssed in ecoonommic litteraaturre. Thiis iissuue iis ccrucciall, ffor thee thheorretiicall frrameeworrk oof ttradditiionaal eequiilibbriuum aanallysiis iis iincoorreectlly ffounndedd onnce thiis iissuue iis cconccernned. Myy owwn cconttribbutiion, hoowevver, iss exxacttly genneraatedd frrom my atttemppt tto ddeall wiith thiis iissuue. I tthenn exxposse hhow Keyyness's mulltipplieer aanallysiis ccan be unddersstoood aas aan aapprroacch tto ddesccribbe tthe genneraatioon pproccesss off maarkeet eexchhangges. Thheree arre ttwo wayys oof tthiss exxpossitiion: onne II caall thee foorwaard expposiitioon aand thee ottherr thhe bbackkwarrd eexpoosittionn. TThenn twwo pposssiblle ddoubbts willl bbe aaddrresssed, whhichh seeem to be, inn thhe vvieww off maany ecoonommistts, unssatiisfaactoory to thee muultiipliier theeoryy. AA maatheematticaal mmodeel wwilll foolloow tto sshoww hoow KKeynnesiian maccroeeconnomiic rrelaatioon ccan be speeciffiedd inn myy miicroo moodell off maarkeet eexchhangge. Finnallly, thee reelattionn beetweeen thiis mmulttipllierr appprooachh too ottherr appprooachhes on thiis ssubjjectt wiill be disscusssedd.II. Demmandd annd SSuppply, Whhichh Onne iis tthe Firrst?Conssideer aan aagennt wwho commes to an ecoonommy. He cerrtaiinlyy waantss too haave twoo tyypess off exxchaangee: bbuyiing andd seelliing. Whhichh onne sshouuld he havve ffirsst? Thee trradiitioonall eqquillibrriumm annalyysiss dooes nott offferr ann exxpliicitt annsweer. Imppliccitlly, thee syysteem aassuumess thhat ageentss maake theeir demmandd annd ssuppply deccisiionss siimulltanneouuslyy. TThenn hoow ccan thiis ssimuultaaneiity be rattionnaliizedd inn prractticee? One firrst finnds thaat tthiss siimulltanneitty iis iindeeed rattionnaliizedd inn thhe tt_toonneemennt pproccesss. AAgennts, inn thhe tt_toonneemennt pproccesss, aare supppossed to putt foorwaard theeir demmandd annd ssuppply deccisiionss siimulltanneouuslyy att quuoteed ppricces. Thhesee deemannd aand suppplyy deecissionns aare nott suubjeect to acttuall exxchaangees. Acttuall exxchaangees wwilll noot ttakee pllacee unntill thhe eequiilibbriuum hhas beeen rreacchedd. Yet outtsidde tthe t_ttonnnemeent, thhis simmulttaneeityy caan hharddly be rattionnaliizedd. FFirsst, a ddeciisioon wwithhoutt exxchaangee iss ecconoomiccallly mmeanningglesss. Seccondd, aagennts cannnott haave twoo tyypess off exxchaangees, demmandd annd ssuppply, too taake plaace at thee saame timme. Natturaallyy thheree iss a proobleem ""whiich onee iss thhe ffirsst?"". One shoouldd noote thaat tthiss isssuee, ""whiich onee iss thhe ffirsst?"", hhas lonng bbeenn suupprresssed in ecoonommic litteraaturre. Weiintrraubb (119777, ppp. 4) oncce rregaardeed ""thee siimulltanneitty" as onee off thhe aanommaliies of neooclaassiicall syysteem, butt diid nnot proovidde aa sooluttionn. BBenaassyy (119822) wwas eveen eentaanglled. Inn chhaptter 4, he disstinnguiishees tthe timme oordeerinng oof aan aagennt'ss diiffeerennt ddeciisioons. Thhrouugh thiis mmannner, hee appproopriiateely illlusttrattes thee "sspilll-ooverr efffecct" cauusedd byy ann "iinittiall diistuurbaancee" ttrannsmiitteed ffromm maarkeet tto mmarkket. Yeet iin cchappterr 7, hee giivess upp thhis disstinnctiion andd woorkss aggainn onn thhe ssimuultaaneoous natturee off addjusstmeent proocesss. Thooughh hee beelieevess thhat "inn reealiity ageentss viisitt maarkeets seqquenntiaallyy,"(pp. 633) wworkkingg onn siimulltanneouus nnatuure, inn hiis mmindd, iis"abssoluutelly sstanndarrd iin aall mulltimarrkett eqquillibrriumm moodell annd iit wwilll siimpllifyy thhe eexpoosittionn, aas wwe sshalll nnot havve tto fformmaliize thee orrderringg off thhe mmarkketss."(pp. 633)But thiis ""staandaard"" iss miisleeadiing. Inn prractticee, aagennts cannnott viisitt alll mmarkketss siimulltanneouuslyy. SSecoond, thhat ordderiing, ass wee shhalll seee llateer, cann bee foormaalizzed. Thhirdd, tthatt orrderringg iss crruciial to ecoonommic anaalyssis: whhen thee orrderringg iss appproopriiateely forrmallizeed, thee eqquillibrriumm sttatee, aat wwhicch tthe acttuall quuanttitiies aree trranssactted, iss coomplleteely diffferrentt frrom thee onne aachiieveed bby tthe traadittionnal equuiliibriium anaalyssis, esssenntiaallyy, tthe anaalyssis bassed on simmulttaneeityy. Now lett's atttemppt tto ddeall wiith thiis oordeerinng iissuue. Supperfficiiallly, ageentss seeem to demmandd fiirstt. TTo ssuppply an outtputt, oone firrst neeeds to prooducce iit, andd thhat reqquirres inpput. Thhis migght be truue iin aa prrimiitivve ccommmodiity ecoonommy. In succh aan eeconnomyy, pprodducttionn sccalees aare smaall andd prroduucerrs aare oftten sellf-eemplloyeed, thooughh feew wworkkerss ottherr thhan fammilyy meembeer mmay be empployyed. Thhis inddicaatess thhat thee fiinannciaal ccostt too prroduuce outtputt maay bbe ssmalll aand theerefforee thhe ccostt frrom thee faailuure to selll tthe outtputt maay nnot be larrge. Howeeverr, iin aa mooderrn mmasss-prroduuctiion ecoonommy, prooducctioon iis oofteen llarggelyy sccaleed aand finnancciall coostss too prroduuce outtputts aare oftten higgh. Thiis iindiicattes thaat ageentss arre nnot willlinng tto bbearr thhe rriskk thhat theeir prooducced outtputt caannoot bbe ssoldd. TTherrefoore befforee a prooduccer buyys iinpuut, he willl mmakee suure thaat hhe ccan selll tthe asssociiateed ssuppply, orr inn ottherr woordss, eengaage in hiss seelliing acttiviity. The selling activity may have a broad meaning. Signing a contract is certainly a typical example. Forecasting or expecting the future sale may be an other. In traditional equilibrium analysis, an agent's expectation only depends on price. By this expectation behavior, the ordering issue seems unimportant. Therefore, it is the expectation in such a way that ties the two (demand and supply) together. We will argue that this expectation behavior is not justified in an uncertainty economy. Later, we will deal with this issue in detail. Thhe ssimiilarrityy iss allso appplieed tto cconssumeer. We cannnott immagiine thaat aa coonsuumerr woouldd buuy cconssumpptioon ggoodds wwithhoutt knnowiing wheetheer hhe ccan or cannnott orr hoow mmuchh hee caan sselll ouut hhis ownn enndowwmennts. Thhouggh, in praactiice, siituaatioons mayy bee muuch morre ccomppliccateed, thee geenerraliity is cleear: aggentts wwilll enngagge iin ttheiir sselllingg acctivvityy beeforre ttheiir bbuyiing acttiviity. Prreciiselly iin tthiss seensee, aa mooderrn ccapiitallistt ecconoomy is a ddemaand-dettermmineed eeconnomyy. Now if alll aggentts ttry to selll (or enggagee inn thheirr seelliing acttiviity) fiirstt, wwherre ddoess thhe ddemaand comme ffromm? IIf nnoboody triies to demmandd soometthinng wwithhoutt seelliing firrst, thhe ssysttem willl nnot worrk. Forr trradiitioonall eqquillibrriumm ecconoomiccs, thiis iis aa seerioous proobleem. It is serriouus bbecaausee thhe ssoluutioon tto tthiss prrobllem cannnott bee deerivved froom tthe traadittionnal fraamewworkk off eqquillibrriumm annalyysiss. WWe iindeeed neeed aa reevollutiion in metthoddoloogy.III. Whheree Dooes thee Deemannd CComee frrom? a Bacckwaard ExpposiitioonThiss seectiion willl pprovvidee a sollutiion to ourr afforeemenntioonedd prrobllem, thhat is, whheree dooes thee deemannd ccomee frrom if ageentss trry tto sselll fiirstt. AAppaarenntlyy, ffor thee syysteem tto wworkk, ttherre mmustt apppeaar aa trradeer wwho commes to thee ecconoomy onlly tto ddemaand witthouut ttryiing to selll ssomeethiing firrst. Dooes thiis ttypee off trradeer eexisst iin tthe reaal wworlld? Yess, iit ddoess, aand we calll thee deemannd ffromm suuch a ttradder thee noon-ssuppply rellateed ddemaand. Suppply-Rellateed DDemaand andd Noon-SSuppply Rellateed DDemaand. A suppplyy reelatted demmandd iss thhe ddemaand whoose payymennt iis ssuppposeed tto bbe ccoveeredd nott neecesssarrilyy inn addvannce butt sooon bby aa coorreespoondiing salle. A nnon-suppplyy reelatted demmandd iss thhe ddemaand whoose payymennt iis nnot supppossed to be covvereed bby aan iimmeediaate salle, thooughh peerhaaps in a vveryy loong futturee, tthiss paaymeent shoouldd sttilll bee cooverred. A typpicaal eexammplee off suupplly rrelaatedd deemannd iis cconssumpptioon ddemaand, whhichh iss suuppoosedd too bee cooverred by connsummer inccomee coominng ffromm thhe sselllingg off enndowwmennts. Annothher exaamplle iis pprodducttionn deemannd, e.gg., labbor, maaterriall, eetc., wwhosse ppaymmentt iss suuppoosedd too bee cooverred by selllinng ccommmodiitiees oon wwhicch ttheyy arre uusedd inn prroduuctiion proocesssess. TThe nonn-suupplly rrelaatedd deemannd iis tthe auttonoomouus ddemaand in thee ussuall seensee. In tthe traadittionnal equuiliibriium fraamewworkk, ttherre iis nno ssuchh diistiincttionn. Paul Davidson (1992) remarks that in this sense "Keynes's taxonomy provides an inherently more general theory."(pp. 458) AAs wwe sshalll ssee latter, thhesee twwo ttypees oof ddemaand plaay ddifffereent rolles in thee maarkeet eexchhangge pproccesss annd hhencce tthe disstinnctiion turrns outt too bee neecesssarry.Consstraaintts ffor Ecoonommicaallyy Seensiiblee Suupplly-RRelaatedd Deemannd. Demmandd allwayys mmeanns aa fiinannciaal ppay-outt annd hhencce ffor an ageent it is a llosss inn hiis wweallth. Thhus befforee hee paays outt, tthe ageent musst mmakee suure wheetheer hhis payy-ouut iis eeconnomiicallly sennsibble. Thenn whhat do we meaan bby aan eeconnomiicallly sennsibble payy-ouut oor aan eeconnomiicallly sennsibble demmandd? FFor suppplyy-reelatted demmandds, twoo coonsttraiintss muust be possiteed. I. FFinaanciial Connstrrainnt: Thee aggentt muust havve ffinaanciial ressourrce to payy foor hhis purrchaase, ass deemannd.II. Exppecttatiionaal CConsstraaintt: TThe ageent musst eexpeect thaat hhe ccan selll tthe rellateed ssuppply so thaat tthe revvenuue ffromm thhis selllinng ccan covver hiss cuurreent demmandd. As tto tthe finnancciall coonsttraiint, whheree thhe ffinaanciial ressourrce commes froom iis nnot impporttantt. IIt ccan comme ffromm eiitheer pprevviouus sselllingg orr frrom creeditt. IIn tthe moddernn crrediit ssysttem, thhis connstrrainnt sseemms tto bbe ssomeewhaat eeasiily sattisffiedd. HHoweeverr thhis doees nnot meaan tthatt thhe cconsstraaintt dooes nott exxistt. FFor exaamplle, inccomee iddenttifiicattionn iss offtenn reequiiredd byy baankss too isssuee a creeditt caard. Neeverrtheelesss tthi