可再生能源跨区送出交易及价格机制研究.doc

1可再生能源可再生能源 跨区（省）跨区（省） 送出交易及价格机制研究送出交易及价格机制研究 TransactionTransaction andand PricingPricing MechanismsMechanisms forfor Cross-RegionalCross-Regional (Province)(Province) DeliveryDelivery ofof Large-scaleLarge-scale RenewablesRenewables中国经济体制改革研究会公共政策研究中心执行摘要执行摘要风电大规模、远距离的送出必将带来高昂的线路建设成本，同时风电大规模跨区（省）交易还会对各类主体的利益产生较大影响。因此，深入研究我国风电跨区（省）送出交易存在的问题，分析风电大规模送出的主要模式及风电外送成本的影响因素，对于正确认识我国风电开发的特点，促进风电企业与电网企业之间、风电与其他形式电源之间的和谐发展，最小化风电送出成本具有十分重要的意义。为了促进风电大规模跨区（省）送出交易，并设计相应的定价机制科学合理地分摊送出成本，课题组全面梳理了国内已有的相关文献和资料，比较了欧美典型国家分摊风电集中式接入成本的相关政策，对各国的实践经验进行了总结和提炼。然后，在形成基本框架的基础上，以几个典型的风电跨区（省）送出工程为例，评估了新的价格机制可能带来的影响，并对相关细节进行了修改和完善。根据课题组的研究，得到了以下结论：（1）我国风电大规模送出需要建设坚强的跨区（省）输电）我国风电大规模送出需要建设坚强的跨区（省）输电“硬通道硬通道”，并，并需要建立相应的交易机制以保障风电的跨区（省）消纳。需要建立相应的交易机制以保障风电的跨区（省）消纳。首先，首先，我国可再生能源和电力需求的逆向分布格局，意味着必须建设坚强的远距离、大容量跨区（省）输电通道，才能实现我国可再生能源的发展目标。其次，其次，为了保障风电大规模送出消纳，应实行可再生能源配额制度，并在条件成熟时推动跨区（省）的发电权交易，促进风电在较大的范围内优化配置。最最后，后，为克服风电的波动性或预测不精确造成的电量差额，应设计一个灵活的电量滚动机制，解决风电电量波动对网间结算带来的影响。（2）风电大规模送出的成本受输电距离、线路容量和送出方式的影响较大，）风电大规模送出的成本受输电距离、线路容量和送出方式的影响较大，应根据不同情况设计适当的线路容量，并在具备条件的地方尽量采用风火应根据不同情况设计适当的线路容量，并在具备条件的地方尽量采用风火“打打捆捆”的送出方式。的送出方式。根据测算结果，我国不同距离风电单独送出的到网价格将达到0.3710.459 元/kW·h，远高于目前华北、华中、华东电网统调燃煤机组脱硫标杆上网电价。同时，由于风电机组的出力特性，风电外送经济性与弃风电量呈反比例关系，过度的追求送电的经济性将无法保障风电企业的利益。我国西部和北部地区煤炭资源丰富，具备同时开发大型煤电、风电基地的条件，根据平均测算结果，采用风火“打捆”的送出方式送出能降低约 30%的输电成本，从而大大增加风电在“三华”地区的竞争力。（3）专用送出通道、网间送出通道按电量与距离定价是相对较优的选择，）专用送出通道、网间送出通道按电量与距离定价是相对较优的选择，网间互联线路按单一制电量定价是相对较优的选择，同时还应建立配套的输电网间互联线路按单一制电量定价是相对较优的选择，同时还应建立配套的输电价格补贴机制。价格补贴机制。由于风电的间歇性和波动性，风电送出通道的年利用小时数一般低于平均水平，同时风电接入也会增加区域电网省间互联线路的容量需求。因此在选择相对较优的定价机制的情况下，政府需要根据相应的价格标准对其进行补贴。在具体实践中，线路年利用小时数考核标准可根据风电场资源禀赋、风电送出距离、受电区域用户经济承受能力等因素制定。在初期适当将标准定低一点，以后再逐年减少补贴。这样不仅可以提高电网公司接纳风电的积极性，又在中长期对提高电网资产利用效率提供了激励。为促进我国风电的可持续发展，课题组提出了以下建议：（1）加强风电送出的统一规划和经济性评估）加强风电送出的统一规划和经济性评估风电的大规模开发、输送和消纳是一个系统工程，因此必须将风电大规模开发、输送和消纳纳入电力发展的统一规划，建立风电项目与电网工程同步规划、同步核准、同步投产的决策机制。同时，应在充分借鉴国外先进经验和研究成果的基础上，加大对大规模风电送出通道建设的经济技术评价，最小化风电送出的成本。（2）完善可再生能源电力送出价格补贴政策）完善可再生能源电力送出价格补贴政策以目前的可再生能源电价附加补助资金管理暂行办法为参考，增强其对风电远距离送出的适应性（可增加考虑不同输电技术、输电距离对成本的影响），并在严格核定各项输电资产投资及运营成本的前提下，根据风电比例将部分网间送出通道、网间互联线路成本纳入补贴的范围，为大规模风电的跨区（省）送出消纳提供政策保障。（3）用市场的理念和机制促进风电送出交易）用市场的理念和机制促进风电送出交易长期来看，只有用市场的理念作指导，在涉及风电跨区（省）交易电量确定、价格形成、利益分配、交易组织、信息披露等方面的政策制定、制度安排等方面，遵循市场规律，充分发挥市场配置资源的基础性、根本性作用，风电的大规模跨区（省）交易才能健康、持续的进行下去。最后，限于课题组研究成员的行业外部视角，本课题的部分技术细节和结论建议还有待更深入的讨论和接受具体实践的验证。同时，受研究目标、数据资料和研究力量的限制，课题研究还存在以下一些不足：一是未能对我国各大基地的风电外送通道成本及输电价格进行详尽的测算，在今后的研究中需要进一步细化；二是在测算过程中，各项技术和财务参数采用了行业平均值或其它学者的建议值，导致测算结果与实际情况可能有一定的差异；三是由于部分数据未能获取，课题最终得到的结论和建议还有待实践的检验。随着研究的进一步骤深入，以上问题将逐步得到解决。Executive SummaryLarge scale and long distance transmission of wind power will incur high costs for constructing new transmission lines. Meanwhile, large-scale cross-region wind power transaction will have a big impact on different stakeholders interests. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct in-depth studies on existing problems of wind power cross- region transaction in China and analysis of main patterns of large-scale wind power transmission and influence factors of wind power transmission costs. These are extremely important for us to correctly understand the characteristics of wind power exploitation, facilitate the cohesive development between wind power companies and grid companies as well as between wind power and other forms of power, and minimize wind power transmission costs.In order to facilitate large-scale cross-region wind power transaction and design a corresponding pricing mechanism to scientifically allocate transmission costs, the research team reviewed comprehensively relevant domestic literature, compared related policies of wind power centralized access cost allocation in typical European countries and the US, and summarized upon practical experience from these countries. Then, based on the basic framework formed, the research team evaluated the impact new pricing mechanism might bring and made revisions in some details using a few typical cross-region wind power transmission projects as examples.According to the research by our team, the following conclusions have been reached:(1) Large scale wind power transmission in China requires strong cross-region transmission “hard pathways”, and the establishment of corresponding transaction mechanism to ensure wind power cross-region consumption.Firstly, renewable energy resources and electricity demands are distributed reversely in China. In order to achieve the renewable energy development goal, it is necessary to build strong long-distance large-capacity cross-region transmission lines. Secondly, to ensure large-scale wind power consumption, China should adopt the Renewable Portfolio Standard and push forward cross-region generation rights trade when time is right. This can facilitate optimal allocation of wind power in a larger context. Lastly, in order to overcome random fluctuations or power difference caused by inaccurate forecasting of wind power, a flexible power rolling mechanism should be designed to ease the impact of wind power fluctuations on inter-grid settlement.(2) Large-scale wind power transmission costs are influenced a lot by transmission distance, line capacity and transmission methods. Appropriate line capacity should be determined according to different situations and wind power in combination with thermal power transmission should be adopted in places where conditions can be met.Based on the calculation results, the price of sole transmission of wind power to grid with different distances will reach 0.3710.459 yuan/kWh, much higher than current on-grid benchmark price for centrally dispatched coal desulfurization plants in northern, central and eastern China. Meanwhile, there is an inverse relationship between the economic efficiency of sending wind power out and the quantity of abandoned wind power due to the characteristics of wind turbine power generation. Thus, over emphasis on the economic efficiency of transmitting the power will not ensure the benefits of wind power companies. In western and northern China, there are abundant coal resources, and the conditions to build large-scale coal-fired power plants and wind power plants can be met. According to the average calculation results, the adoption of transmitting wind power in combination with thermal power can reduce transmission costs by 30%, which will increase the competitiveness of wind power in northern, central and eastern China.(3) It is a relatively better choice to set the price of special transmission pathway and inter-grid transmission pathway based on quantities of electricity and distances. One-part pricing is a better choice for inter-grid connection lines. Meanwhile a matched transmission cost subsidy mechanism needs to be established.Due to the intermittency and volatility of wind power, the annual utilization hours of wind power transmission pathways usually are lower than the average. Wind power integration will also increase the capacity need for regional grid inter-provincial power lines. Therefore, the government should subsidize the prices based on corresponding pricing standards under the condition of selecting a better pricing mechanism. The evaluation standards of power line annual utilizations hours can be set based on wind farms resources endowment, wind power transmission distances, affordability of users and so on. It is better to set the standards low in the beginning and decrease subsidies later. It will not only promote wind power to grid companies, but also stimulate the increase of grid assets utilization efficiency in the middle and long term.The research team has proposed the following recommendations in order to realize the sustainable development of wind power in China:(1) Strengthen unified planning and economic evaluation of wind power transmissionLarge-scale development, transmission and consumption of wind power are a systematic project, which thus should be included in the integrated planning of power sector development. It is necessary to establish a decision-making mechanism in which wind power projects are planned, evaluated, and put into production at the same time with power grid projects. At the same time, we should borrow successful experience and research results from foreign countries, increase economic and technical evaluation of large-scale wind power transmission pathways construction, and minimize wind power transmission costs.(2) Complete renewable energy power transmission price subsidy policyThe current “Provisional Measures On Special Subsidies For Renewable Energy Electricity” is used for reference. Its adaptability to long-distance wind power transmission can be strengthened. In addition, under the condition of verifying strictly every transmission asset investment and operation cost, part of inter-grid transmission pathway and inter-grid line costs can be included in the subsidy based on the portion of wind power. This will provide policy insurance for large-scale cross-region wind power transmission and consumption.(3) Facilitate wind power transmission transaction through market forcesIn the long term, only under the guidance of market ideology can large-scale cross- region wind power transactions go on in a sustainable and healthy way. In areas related to policy making in determination of electricity quantity, price formation, benefits distribution, transaction organization, information disclosure and so on in cross-region wind power transaction, market laws should be followed for resources distribution.Finally, part of the technical details and recommendations in this research needs to be further discussed and verified through practice due to the limitation of the research teams external perspectives. There are other limitations in this research due to the limitation of research subjects, data resources, and research capacity. Firstly, this study is not able to give detailed calculation on wind power transmission pathway costs and transmission prices in big Chinese power bases. This can be refined in future studies. Secondly, this research referred to industry average values or recommended values by other scholars for the technical and financial parameters in the study, which might incur a certain level of difference between calculated results and the actual situation. Thirdly, the final conclusion and recommendations of the study need further verification through practice due to the part of data not acquired. Along with the deepening of this study, the above issues will be solved step by step.8目目 录录一、导 言.131、研究背景.132、课题研究意义.143、课题预期目标.154、课题研究内容.16二、大规模可再生能源跨区(省)送出交易及价格现状.171、大规模可再生能源跨区（省）送出交易现状.172、大规模可再生能源跨区（省）送出价格现状.183、可再生能源送出交易及价格存在的问题分析.21三、大规模可再生能源送出交易及价格国际经验借鉴.251、欧美各国可再生能源概况.252、典型国家的输电定价机制.303、可再生能源送出成本分摊.334、大规模可再生能源送出交易及定价的目标和原则 .381、交易及价格机制设计的目标.382、交易及价格机制设计的原则.395、大规模可再生能源跨区(省)送出及交易模式分析.431、可再生能源送出方案及消纳区域.432、可再生能源送出的几种主要方式.453、可再生能源跨区（省）交易模式.47六、考虑大规模可再生能源送出的跨区(省)价格机制设计.511、可再生能源外送涉及的成本分类.512、制定价格机制需考虑的主要因素.523、考虑可再生能源送出的定价机制.604、不同价格机制的比较与选择.71七、基本结论及主要建议.771、基本结论.772、主要建议.793、研究展望.80参考文献.81附录 A 我国大规模可再生能源发展现状及外送通道情况.85一、大规模可再生能源现状及趋势.85二、大规模可再生能源网络送出通道状况.87三、结论与建议.90附录 B “十二五”大规模可再生能源送出交易价格测算.92一、研究思路及方法.92二、基本假设和参数.94三、计算结果分析.9710正正 文文 一、导一、导 言言探索建立可再生能源的送出交易及价格机制，实现大规模可再生能源跨区（省）送出成本合理、及时、足额回收，是引导可再生能源健康、有序、持续发展，实现我国可再生能源战略目标的重要措施。由于我国可再生能源资源分布和电力负荷中心逆向分布的特点，有必要建立与之相适应的跨区（省）送出交易及价格机制，从而促进可再生能源在较大的区域内优化配置。本章阐述了大规模可再生能源跨区（省）送出交易及价格机制研究的背景、意义、内容、预期目标和研究内容等基本问题。1、研究背景、研