联合国粮农组织-粮食展望：全球食品市场半年期报告（英）-100正式版.docx

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsIS sN 02 5119 59BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETSNovember 2022FAO's forecast for world wheat production in 2022/23 stands at a record 784 million tonnes, up 0.6 percent from last season. Significant harvest recoveries in Canada and the Russian Federation are expected to make up the bulk of the year-on- year increase and offset production declines foreseen in several countries, including Argentina, Australia, the European Union, India, Morocco and, especially, Ukraine.At 775 million tonnes, total wheat utilization is seen expanding marginally in 2022/23, by 0.3 percent, from 2021/22, mostly driven by higher food consumption of wheat, which is forecast to continue rising in line with population growth, as well as a greater industrial use. By contrast, high wheat prices relative to feed grains, maize in particular, will likely reduce feed use of wheat in 2022/23, largely in China and, to a lesser extent, the United States of America, where supplies are tight.Based on the latest global production and utilization forecasts, global wheat inventories are expected to rise above opening levels by 2.0 percent in 2022/23 to 300 million tonnes, the highest level on record. However, most of the projected accumulation of wheat stocks is expected to occur in China and the Russian Federation. Excluding these two countries, wheat inventories in the rest of the world are predicted to fall by more than 8 percent below their opening levels, led by drawdowns expected in India, the European Union and the United States of America, as well as several countries in Africa and Asia.World wheat trade in 2022/23 (July/June) is forecast to contract by 1.0 percent from the 2021/22 record level, down to 194 million tonnes, mostly reflecting export disruptions and expectations of lower import demand in some countries due to bigger domestic harvests. Despite greater recent shipments due to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/23 are forecast to be well below average and last season's level because of a slower pace of exports and ongoing logistical challenges. Export restrictions to protect domestic supplies are expected to reduce wheat sales from India, while reduced production will likely curb Argentina's exports. On the import side, anticipated smaller purchases by China, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Kazakhstan, on account of bigger national harvests, are seen to be reducing wheat import demand.For additional analyses and updates, see:FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief http:q，worldfoodsituation Crop Prospects and Food Situation http: www.fao.oiQ/qiews/reports/croD-DrosDectsAMIS Market Monitorhttp: Contact:Erin CollierJonathan Pound (Production)WHEAT PRODUCTION, UTILIZATIONProduction (left axis)Utilization (left axis)Stocks (right axis)WORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE2020/212021/222022/23 Changeestim. f'cast 2022/23over2021/22million tonnes%WORLD BALANCESUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSProduction775.0779.3783.80.6Tradei189.4195.7193.7-1.0Total utilization761.8773.0775.00.3Food525.5529.5535.31.1Feed147.9151.7146.8-3.2Other uses88.591.892.91.3Ending stocks2291.5293.7299.62.0Per caput food consumption:1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.World (kg/yr)LIFDC (kg/yr)World stocks-to-use67.058.237.767.057.937.967.157.638.00.3-0.5ratio (%)Major exporters stocks-to-disap-15.216.017.5pearance ratios (%)FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4 (2014-2016=100)202020212022J an-Oct.% Change Jan/Oct2022 over Jan/Oct202110113216723.92 May not equal the difference between supply (defined as production plus carryover stocks) and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the BUnited States of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index.FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2022APPENDIX TABLE 28: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICES AND FAO MEAT PRICE INDICESPeriodFAO indicesTotal meatPoultry meatPig meatBovine meatOvine meatAnnual (Jan/Dec)(2014-2016=100) .201110511711288135201210511511193111201310611811393101201411211411710711420159796921029420169190929192201798989896112201895939196124201910096981011242020968794100117202110810294118141Monthly2021 - October112108891271572021 - November113109891291512021 - December111107891281452022 - January112108861331402022 - February114108891361362022 - March1191121001381392022 - April1221181041371372022 - May1231261031361322022 - June1261351051361342022 - July1241341061311322022 - August1211291061261302022 - September1201281071251252022 - October118128104124121Notes:The FAO Meat Price Indices consist of 2 poultry meat product quotations (the average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 3 bovine meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 3 pig meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights), 2 ovine meat product quotation (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights): the four meat group average prices are weighted by world average export trade shares for 2014/2016.Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject to revision.68 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2022APPENDIX TABLE 29: FISH PRICE INDICESSource of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index: EUMOFA, INFOFISH, INFOPESCA, INFOYU, Statistics Norway.PeriodTotalWhitefishSalmonShrimpPelagic excl. tunaTunaAnnual (Jan/Dec)(2014-2016=100)2011104114100971041052012971117887115119201310410499991071192014107105102113100108201592978492999120161029711494101101201710610811796921122018106118119889610520191021211088692100202095107978692932021102116109929987Monthly2020- January1061221348692802020- February1011191168682892020-March95103978590972020-April90978685801012020-May9194968293972020-June979610888108902020-July94103939096912020- August94103899095992020- September92103868892932020- October92108838795922020- November91112838393882020- December94120888189952021 - January96117908493942021 - February96115968494892021-March1011111158494922021-April1021121208690902021-May10712012890104842021 - June10512411290118802021-July10311311294109812021 - August10011110295107832021 - September99114989698862021-October1031161089794872021 - November1021171059896842021 - December1081221199896932022-January111119127971011062022- February11712514697911062022- March1281771479793972022-April13417817097100932022-May132167163961121012022- June13518515895119992022-July121162135959994202 - August119160116931251042022- September11915395901981056969FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 202270APPENDIX TABLE 30: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE；(Fob Bangladesh Port)Currency and unitEffective dateLatest quotationOne month agoOne year agoAverage 2017-2021Sugar (ISA daily price)US cents per lb31-10-2217.0517.6819.5814.35Coffee (ICO daily price)US cents per lb31-10-22163.58193.28181.57119.09Cocoa (ICCO daily price)US cents per lb31-10-22102.22101.16116.46103.97Tea (FAO Tea Composite Price)USD per kg30-09-222.972.982.612.64Cotton (COTLOOK A index)US cents per lb30-09-22118.29124.42103.6885.19Jute “BTD”USD per tonne30-09-221200.001250.001250.00934.92FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2022FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 202272MARKETINIDCATORSInternational Grains Council (IGC)45Despite generally buoyant trade in grains and oilseeds, as well as challenging logistics in some areas, freight rates for the transportation of dry bulk commodities took a significant step down over the past six months, as geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and global recessionary fears weighed on market sentiment and curbed chartering activity.The dry bulk freight complex witnessed volatile demand over the past six months, with market sentiment often shaped by macroeconomic conditions, as well as geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Black Sea conflict and fears of potentially escalating tensions between China and the United States of America.Amid hostilities between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, freight rates in the second half of 2022 were buoyed by a broad-based increase in dry bulk journey length and times, especially for Capesize and Panamax carriers, as some trade flows were re-directed owing to international sanctions and difficulties sourcing supplies from the region. This included a partial shift in purchases of grains and oilseeds from Russia and Ukraine to the Americas, as well as increased coal deliveries from Australia and South Africa to Europe. Coal exports from South Africa to the European Union rose nearly six-foldr Zi iriccfiruf ciriG mcc+hu cf O002 alucSummary of dry bulk freight marketsSource: Baltic Exchange, IGC. * 4 January 1985 = 1000. * 23 May 2006 = 1000. * 1 January 2013 = 100.24 Oct2022Changes6 monthsy/y%Baltic Dry Index (BDI)*1797-22-59Sub-indices:Capesize2036+ 10-67Panamax2113-30-51Supramax1670-38-53Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI)*9593653IGC Grains and OilseedsFreight Index (GOFI)*175-24-35200 N D J F M A M JJ A S O20212022IGC GOFI BDINote: IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index, constructed based on nominal freight rates on major grains/oilseeds routes using trade- weighted approach. Source: Baltic Exchange, IGCamid surging gas prices. More broadly, world seaborne coal trade over the same period was estimated to be 3 percent higher year-on-year, at around 890 tonnes, marking a recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels.Nevertheless, with mounting worries about worsening global economic conditions, and the associated uncertain outlook for seaborne trade, average time charter rates posted a sizable drop in the past six months, as reflected by the benchmark Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has contracted by more than one-fifth since late-April 2022. After peaking at a five-month high in late-May, the composite indicator subsequently fell markedly, to its lowest level in more than two years by the end of August. Although markets saw some improvement in the period since, values remain subdued, with the Index down by 59 percent year-on-year as at late-October, including steep annual declines in all constituent sectors.Significant logistics-related developments during the six-month period included the late-July deal to establish safe corridors for seaborne grain and oilseed exports from Ukraine, and the subsequent resumption of shipments from three Black Sea ports - Odessa, Chomomorsk and Pivdennyi. This had an overall positive impact on the market, although observers highlighted the reluctance of some vessel owners, especially of larger-sized carriers, to commit to business in the region because of perceived conflict-related risks.FOOD OUTLOOK 73NOVEMBER 2022Baltic Capesize Index24 October 2021- 24 October 2022rains and oilseeds carrying sectors: Panamax andSupramax sub-indices and Handysize Index 24October 2021 - 24 October 2022906030Rebased, 24 Oct 2021= 1001200 ON DJF MA M J JASO2021202220212022 SupramaxHandysizeRebased, 24 Oct 2021 = 100120Source: Baltic ExchangeSource: Baltic ExchangeanamaxIn the past several weeks, the attention of the market was also focused on worsening bottlenecks across the United States Midwest, where low water levels on the main Mississippi river hampered barge movements to export terminals at the Gulf.Calculated total costs on key grain and oilseed routes (including fuel expenses), which are tracked by the International Grains Council (IGC) Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), also saw a sizable net decline since April. While values slipped by one-quarter over the period, the annual drop was relatively smaller compared to the BDI, in part owing to firmer bunker prices. Steep losses were recorded at all underlying origins, although voyage rates out of the Black Sea region were seen as highly indicative, with trade sources citing significant risk premiums for local deliveries.While prospects for seaborne trade remain hazy against a poor macroeconomic backdrop, some positivity stems from an envisaged rebound in Chinese mineral demand following the removal of COVID-19-related measures. Furthermore, the implementation of new rules from the International Maritime Organization, which seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to slow the supply of new vessels in the medium term, while potentially triggering increased demolition rates for non-compliant ships.Movements across Panamax, Supramax and Handysize vessel segments - commonly associated with deliveries of grains and oilseeds as well as bulk commodities, such as coal, sugar and fertilizer - were broadly consistent during the past several months. With initial falls followed by a moderate rebound, average rates contracted by one-third in the period since late-April. Consequently, values were less than half their year-earlier levels.Reduced enquires at the United States Gulf and in South America amid relatively soft demand from China -the world's major importer of dry bulk commodities -contributed to declines in vessel hire rates during the summer months. Bearish influences also included India's move to raise export taxes on iron ore pellets and some steel products, following earlier bans on wheat and sugar shipments. Subsequent restrictions on a few rice shipments were also negative for fixing activity. Variable enquiry levels were also reported in other parts of Asia during that period, albeit as Australia and the no