(11.1.1)--第3单元ArnoldHowitt-及时行动：风险治理的综合框架.pdf

ACTING IN TIME:及时行动：A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR RISK GOVERNANCE 风险治理的综合框架 Arnold M.Howitt,Ph.D.阿诺德M豪威特博士 Co-Director,Program on Crisis Leadership 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院危机领导力项目 联合主任 Senior Adviser,Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation Harvard Kennedy School The Looming Threat of Disaster 迫在眉睫的灾难威胁 COVID-19 is a dramatic world crisis,but society regularly faces largescale disasters of several types:新冠肺炎疫情是一场戏剧化的世界危机，但是社会经常会面临各种大规模的灾难：Natural disasters 自然灾害(hurricanes 飓风,tsunamis 海啸,earthquakes 地震,floods 洪水),Technology,infrastructure,and systems failures 技术、基础设施以及系统故障 (industrial disasters 工业灾难,air crashes 飞机失事,oil spills 石油泄漏),Public health crises 公共卫生危机 (emergent infectious diseases like H1N1,SARS,West Nile virus,avian flu 新发传染病，比如H1N1甲型流感、非典型肺炎、西尼罗河病毒、禽流感;and bioterrorism 以及生物恐怖主义),and 以及 Protests,civil disorder,terrorism 抗议、内乱、恐怖主义 Chronic or long-term emergencies 慢性或长期突发事件 (drought,famine,climate change,war 干旱、饥荒、气候变化、战争)The Looming Threat of Disaster 迫在眉睫的灾难威胁 Social Welfare 社会福利(no disaster event 无灾难事件时)Aggregate Social Welfare 社会福利总量 Social Welfare 社会福利(with disaster event 有灾难事件时)Welfare Loss 福利损失 Disaster occurs 灾难发生 Time 时间 The Costs of Disaster 灾难带来的损失 Aggregate Social Welfare 社会福利总量 Less Welfare Loss 更少福利损失 Potential Welfare Gain 可能的福利增益 Social Welfare(no disaster event)社会福利（无灾难事件时）Social Welfare(with improved preparation,response,and recovery)社会福利（有更好的准备、响应和恢复工作时）Welfare Loss 福利损失 Disaster occurs 灾难发生 Time 时间 Social Welfare(with disaster event)社会福利（有灾难事件时）But Effective Preparedness Can Make a Difference 但是充分的准备工作会产生影响 Prepare for Response 做好应对准备 Response 应对 Advance Recovery 促进恢复 Recovery 恢复 Pre-Event 事前 Event Begins 事件发生 Event Evolving 事件逐步发展 Post-Event 事后 Prevention/Mitigation 预防/减轻 Five Leverage Points for Reducing Social Loss from Disasters 五个可以减轻灾难带来的社会损失的杠杆点 A Comprehensive Risk Management Framework 风险治理的综合框架 Investment/Action/Intervention 投资/行动/干预 Time Period 时间段 Intended Benefit/Impact 预期受益/影响 Prevention/mitigation 预防/减轻 Before the event 事前 Reducing harm that an event could produce by averting it or minimizing its impacts 通过避免发生或将其影响降至最低，以减轻事件带来的伤害 Preparation for response 做好应对准备 Before the event 事前 Getting ready for rapid,effective response to an event 做好快速有效应对事件的准备 Advance recovery 促进恢复 Before the event 事前 Creating conditions that will make recovery faster,less costly,and more complete 创造条件让恢复工作更快、成本更低、更为全面 Response 应对 During and immediately after the event 事中及事后短时间内 Reducing damage in progress and ministering to human needs 在过程中减少损失，满足人们的需求 Recovery 恢复 After the event 事后 Restoring social welfare as rapidly as possible 尽快恢复社会福利 Impacts of Effective Risk Management 有效风险管理的影响 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.The Continuum:Normal Operations to Emergencies 连续过程：从正常运作到突发事件 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现问题 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.8 The Continuum:Normal Operations to Emergencies 连续过程：从正常运作到突发事件 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现问题 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.9 EMERGENCIES 突发事件 Placing Emergencies in the Continuum 连续过程中突发事件的位置 What are the Characteristics of Routine Emergencies?常规突发事件的特征 Characteristics 特征:Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on plans/decision/actions 后果根据计划/决定/行动不同而有所不同 Copyright 2018 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Routine emergencies can be anticipated in terms of general characteristics,if not in timing and place 即使无法预见其时间或地点，常规突发事件可以预见其一般特征 Scale Does NOT Necessarily Define Routine Emergencies 规模不一定是常规突发事件的特征 From this perspective,“routine emergencies”can be relatively small or quite large.What counts is whether responders can forecast them by type,and then prepare,practice,and gain experience in repeated instances.从这个角度来说，“常规突发事件”的规模可能相对较小，或者相当大。重要的是响应者是否能预测其种类，然后在重复出现的事例中为之做好准备、练习并获得经验。NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现问题 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 CRISES 危机 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.12 EMERGENCIES 突发事件 Crises 危机 Crises Are Different from Routine Emergencies!危机不同于常规紧急事件 Characteristics 特征:Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on decisions/actions 后果根据决定/行动不同而有所不同 Significant elements of NOVELTY “新”的重要元素 Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.13 Extraordinary scale:An emergency far larger than what we have prepared to handle.不同寻常的规模：规模远超我们已经做好准备应对的突发事件。“New under the sun”an unprecedented challenge,something never before encountered by responders.“全新的事件”从未有过的挑战，响应者从未遇到过的事情。A complex combination of emergencies not expected to occur together.未预料到的突发事件的复杂组合同时发生。Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.The Nature of“Novelty”(1)“新”的特性（1）Novelty arises in several ways:“新”出现在以下几个方面：Novelty is a subjective concept:new for the jurisdiction,organizations,or responders experiencing it “新”是 主观 概念：对于经历此事的辖区、组织或者响应者来说都是“新”的 Atlanta ice storm,January 2014 亚特兰大冰暴，2014年1月 Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.The Nature of“Novelty”(cont.)“新”的特性（续）Boston blizzard,January 2015 Minneapolis blizzard,January 2018 波士顿暴风雪，2015年1月 明尼阿波利斯暴风雪，2018年1月 Copyright 2015 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.but not necessarily for the world.但对世界来说不一定是“新”的。The Nature of“Novelty”(cont.)“新”的特性（续）Consequences 负面影响 Identify risks 识别风险 Analyze/assess their likely consequences 分析/评估其可能造成的负面影响 Manage the risks 管理风险:Prevent 预防 Mitigate 减轻 Transfer 转移 Accept 接受 2018 by Herman B.“Dutch”Leonard The Standard Risk Management Paradigm 风险管理标准范式 频率 Frequency Preparing for anticipatable emergencies is a tremendously worthwhile endeavor.为可预见的突发事件做准备的努力非常有价值。Example:Preparation for annual flooding has reduced life-threatening danger and property damage.例如：为每年发生的洪涝做准备减少了可能造成的生命危险和财产损失。Example:Vaccination for infectious disease has reduced childhood mortality.例如：接种传染病疫苗降低了儿童死亡率 Example:Fire departments have concentrated on prevention strategies 例如：消防部门注重采取预防措施 e.g.,smoke alarm and sprinkler system installations to greatly reduce fires.比如安装烟雾报警器和喷淋系统极大地减少了火灾。Copyright 2018 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.But it is not enough.但还不够。18 The Standard Risk Management Paradigm 风险管理标准范式 Highly ValuableBut Insufficient 极具价值但还不够 High Intractable Low How to Improve Risk Management 如何改进风险管理 1.Manage known risks more effectively 更有效地管理已知风险 2.Identify additional risks and manage those well 识别并管理额外的风险 3.Develop ability to adapt to novelty agilely and respond with flexibility 发展迅速适应并灵活应对“新”的突发事件的能力These risks are the ones that the Standard Risk Management Paradigm can handle well 标准风险管理范式可以很好地处理这些风险 2018 by Herman B.“Dutch”Leonard Tractable 可控的 UNCERTAINTY about Frequency 频率的不确定性 Another Way of Thinking about Risk?换个方式思考风险？UNCERTAINTY about Consequences 负面影响的不确定性 “新”High高 High高 Low低 Routine Emergencies 常规突发事件 Can the hazard be and is it foreseen?能否预见/是否预见到其危险（致灾因子）？Yes 能 Can we prepare to respond adaptively?能否准备好有针对性地应对？Yes 能 No 不能 Can we develop actions with high expected value-cost ratios?能否制定高预期价值成本比的行动？Yes 能 No 不能 Can and do we take action?我们能否/是否采取了行动？Yes 能 Yes 能 NOT Acting in Time 不能及时行动 Copyright 2015 by Herman B.“Dutch”Leonard and Arnold M.Howitt Can we improvise effectively in the moment of crisis?危机中我们能否有效地随机应变？Simple Analytics of Acting in Time 及时行动的简单分析 No 不能 ACTING IN TIME 及时行动 Acting in time involves three distinct leadership challenges 及时行动涉及到三种不同的领导力挑战 Mobilized?动员情况？Actionable?可实施性？Visible?可见性？Novelty Crises“新”危机 No 不能 No 不能 No 不能