兰德-在生命科学中使用量子计算机和模拟器的当前趋势和未来展望（英）-133正式版.doc

Using Quantum Computers and Simulators in the Life SciencesCurrent Trends and Future ProspectsRAND Europe: Salil Gunashekar, Camilla dAngelo, Isabel Flanagan, Dadiso Motsi-Omoijiade, Mann Virdee, Carolina FeijaoDigital Science: Simon PorterFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA1899-1About RAND EuropeRAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. To learn more about RAND Europe, visit www.randeurope.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decision making through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behaviour. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.© 2022 Novo Nordisk FoundationAll rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the Novo Nordisk Foundation.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UKR® is a registered trademark.Cover: Adobe StockIIIPrefaceQuantum technologies are expected to lead to new products and services having potentially transformative impacts across many sectors.Recognising the disruptive potential of quantum technologies in the future, several countries and funders have taken active measures to invest in quantum technologies researchand innovation (R&I). However, despite the numerous opportunities, the development and application of quantum technologies also pose several challenges and risks that will need to be addressed if the benefits of the technologies are to be fully realised.This report analyses the development and adoption of quantum computing technologies in the life sciences sector with a particular focus on quantum computers and quantum simulators. The scope of the research referred to by the phrase quantum computers and simulators covers different aspects related to the hardware and software components required for operation. This includes topics such as quantum electronics, quantum software, quantum algorithms, quantum materials, and qubit control and engineering, and the applications of these topics to the life sciences (the broader topics of quantum sensing and quantum communication were not considered within the scope of the research).We have analysed the research landscape of quantum computers and simulators focusing on key R&I developments, potential applications and the general direction of travel of developments within the ecosystem. Specifically, through a detailed literature review, interviews with a range of stakeholders anda comprehensive scientometric analysis, thework focuses on addressing the following main research questions:1. What are the current developments associated with the application of quantum computers and simulators to the life sciences?2. What are the potential opportunities and challenges associated with the application of quantum computers and simulators to the life sciences?3. How are initiatives (including policy measures, strategies, actions and plans) being adopted globally to strengthen the quantum technology R&I ecosystem?The work analyses and synthesises evidence both qualitative and quantitative on various aspects associated with the global quantum computers and simulators and life sciences research ecosystem including growing research areas and key countries, institutions, companies and funders that are engaged in emerging quantum computer and simulator research in the life sciences domain. The research presented in this report will be of interest to a range of stakeholders including those in academia and industry, policymakers and more generally to anyone interested in the development, adoption and impact of emerging technologies.This research was prepared for the Novo Nordisk Foundation and Novo Holdings. However, RAND Europe had full editorial control and independence of the analyses performed and presented in this report, which has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND Europes quality assurance standards. This work is intended to inform the publicIVUsing Quantum Computers and Simulators in the Life Sciencesgood and should not be taken as a commercial endorsement of any product or service.We were able to carry out this research because of the support and contributions of many individuals. First, we would like to thank the team at the Novo Nordisk Foundation (Lene Oddershede, Morten Bache and Kasper Nørgaard) and Novo Holdings (Jeroen Bakker) for their support throughout the study. We are also grateful for the helpful insights provided by the numerous stakeholders we engaged with through the interviews over the course of the study. Finally, we would like to thank our quality assurance reviewers at RAND Europe, Susan Guthrie and Erik Silfversten, for their valuable and constructive comments on this report.RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that aims to improve policy and decision making in the public interest, through research and analysis. RAND Europes clientsinclude European governments, institutions, non-governmental organisations and firms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis. Digital Science is a technology company working to make research more efficient.For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact:Dr Salil Gunashekar (Associate Research Group Director, Science and Emerging Technology) RAND EuropeWestbrook Centre, Milton Road Cambridge CB4 1YGUnited KingdomRue de la Loi 82 / Bte 31040 BrusselsBelgiumEmail: sgunasherandeurope.orgVSummaryBackground and contextQuantum technologies are expected to lead to new products and services having potentially transformative impacts across many sectors.Recognising the disruptive potential of quantum technologies in the future, several countries and funders have taken active measures to invest in quantum technologies research and development (R&D). However, despite the numerous opportunities, the development and application of quantum technologies also pose several challenges and risks that will need to be addressed if the benefits of the technology are to be fully realised.There is widespread acknowledgement that the life sciences with its consideration of complex phenomena at molecular levels is one of the key areas of potential application for quantum technologies. Indeed, quantum technologies (for example, quantum computers and quantum simulators) are already making significant progress in areas such as drug development, simulation of chemical processes, and genetic and genomic sequencing.Objectives of the studyThe overarching aim of this study commissioned by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and Novo Holdings was to conduct a landscape review to understand key trends and the challenges and opportunities associated with the development and adoption of quantum computing technologies in the life sciences sector with a particular focus onquantum computers and quantum simulators. The scope of the research referred throughout the report by the phrase quantum computers and simulators covers different aspects related to the hardware and software components required for operation of quantum computers and simulators. This includes topics such as quantum electronics, quantum software, quantum algorithms, quantum materials, and qubit control and engineering, and the applications of these topics to the life sciences.1 This report focuses on addressing the following main research questions:1. What are the current developments associated with the application of quantum computers and simulators to the life sciences?2. What are the potential opportunities and challenges associated with the application of quantum computers and simulators to the life sciences?3. How are initiatives (including policy measures, strategies, actions and plans) being adopted globally to strengthen the quantum technology R&I ecosystem?The work analyses and synthesises evidence both qualitative and quantitative on various aspects associated with the global quantum computers and simulators and life sciences research ecosystem including growing research areas and key countries, institutions, funders and companies that are engaged in emerging quantum computer and simulator research in the life sciences domain.1 The broader topics of quantum sensing and quantum communication were not considered within the scope of the research, despite topics like quantum sensing potentially having applications within the life sciences.VIUsing Quantum Computers and Simulators in the Life SciencesThe independent research presented in this report is intended to inform the direction of the Novo Nordisk Foundation and Novo Holdings in relation to their strategic focus area on quantum computers and simulators for future life science applications. In addition,the research will be of interest to a range of stakeholders including those in academia and industry, policymakers, and more generally to anyone interested in the development, adoption and impact of emerging technologies.Defining quantum technologyQuantum technology is an umbrella term for a range of different technologies that harness quantum effects (physical effects on the subatomic level). Systems based on quantum technologies use the properties of electrons, photons, atoms or molecules. For several decades, so-called Quantum 1.0 technologies such as lasers and transistors have been widely used. The new wave of quantum technologies, sometimes referred to as Quantum 2.0, is expected to lead to new products and services potentially impacting sectors like finance, defence, aerospace, energy, telecommunications and health. Key areas of advancement include: quantum communication, quantum sensors and metrology, and quantum computers and simulators. In this study, we have focused on quantum computers and quantum simulators, and the development and adoption of their applications in the life sciences.Quantum computers store data in qubits and exploit quantum mechanical properties of entanglement and superposition. This allows quantum computers to tackle tasks significantly faster than a traditional computer and simulate complex quantum systems in nature. Quantum computers are thought to be particularly suited to problems with factorisation, searches, optimisation or simulations. It is estimated that within the next 1530 years a universal quantum computer could be developed which would be able to run any type of algorithm, although it is likely there will remain some problems quantum computers will be unable to solve.While quantum computers, once realised, will be able to tackle complex problems, fault-tolerant machines may not be available until far into the future, so in the short term, quantum simulators are being developed. Quantum simulators, which are easier to construct than a full quantum computer, are controllable systems which reproduce the behaviour of another quantum system. These are systems which do not necessarily simulate quantum dynamics of physical systems but can still generate superposition states.VIIResearch approachWe adopted a mixed methods approach to address the objectives of the study drawing on distinct but inter-related research methodologies that complemented each other.First, we conducted a rapid evidence assessment of the literature (including targeted searches of the grey literature) to identify and analyse information associated with key international developments in quantum computer and simulator research and applications in the context of the life sciences. The search was conducted using the Dimensions database and Google.Second, to complement the literature review, we carried out a series of semi-structured interviews with key opinion makers and stakeholders with knowledge of the quantum technology R&I ecosystem. The interviewees included senior experts from academia, industry and the third sector.Third, alongside the literature review and interviews, we carried out a comprehensive scientometric analysis of global quantum technologies research, focusing on quantum computers and simulators in the life sciences. We used Dimensions as the global dataset. By identifying quantum computer and simulator research publications, we aimed to develop a rounded picture of the surrounding research ecosystem in order to provide insight into the countries, funders, institutions and companies engaged in the research.Key findings from the researchWhat are some of the general trends observed in the wider quantum technology ecosystem?Below we summarise some of the high-level trends observed in the wider quantum technology (including quantum computers and simulators) ecosystem.Summary of general trends in the wider quantum technology ecosystem With Quantum 2.0, industries are in the midst of a second quantum revolution.2 Quantum computers are starting to show advances over classical computers in specific and limited problem areas. There is an increasing diversity of technological approaches in quantum computing hardware and software. There are increased investments in quantum technology by the public and private sectors. Currently, national governments remain the major source of funding for quantum computer and simulator research, far exceeding the private sector. Globally, the top five funders of quantum computer and simulator research originate from China, the European Union (EU