IRENA-加速七国集团的氢部署：《氢行动公约》的建议（英）-2022.11-144正式版.doc

ACCELERATING HYDROGEN DEPLOYMENT IN THE G7RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE HYDROGEN ACTION PACT© IRENA 2022Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN:978-92-9260-479-0Citation: IRENA (2022), Accelerating hydrogen deployment in the G7: Recommendations for the Hydrogen Action Pact, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.ABOUT IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.orgACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIRENA is grateful for the external reviews and feedback received from Jean-Philippe Bernier (NRCan/Canada), Noam Boussidan (WEF), Hélène Chraye (European Commission), Tudor Constantinescu (European Commission), Marcello Capra (Ministry of Ecological Transition/Italy), Laura Droste (DENA), Clarisse Durand (Ministry of Ecological Transition/France), Christine Falken-Großer (BMWK/Germany), Aaron Hoskin (NRCan/Canada), Ruud Kempener (European Commission), Florian Knobloch (BMWK/Germany), Mary Marquez (NRCan/Canada), Yury Melnikov (Consultant), José Miguel Bermúdez Menéndez (IEA), Heino von Meyer (PtX Hub), Mikako Miki (METI/Japan), Frank Mischler (GIZ), Daria Nochevnik (Hydrogen Council), Marion Noel (Ministry of Ecological Transition/France), Misa Okano (METI/Japan), Alessandro Polito (European Commission), Stefano Raimondi (Ministry of Ecological Transition/ Italy), Claudie Roy (NRCan/Canada), Matthjis Soede (European Commission), Kai Tateda (METI/Japan) and Hiroki Yoshida (METI/Japan); as well as officials at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (United Kingdom), and representatives from the United States Department of Energy for reviewing portions of this report.IRENA would also like to thank the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action for their support in making this report possible.The report was authored by Emanuele Bianco, Herib Blanco and Barbara Jinks (IRENA) under the guidance of Dolf Gielen (former Director, IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre).Additional valuable comments, suggestions and support were provided by IRENA colleagues Francisco Boshell, Ute Collier, Jaidev Dhavle, Benjamin Gibson, Steven Go, Francesco Pasimeni and Faran Rana.Design by weeks.de, Munich.DISCLAIMERThis publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.2ACCELERATING HYDROGEN DEPLOYMENT IN THE G7FOREWORDIt has become clear that hydrogen must play a key role in the energy transition if the world is to meet the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement.In particular, low carbon and green hydrogen offer vital opportunities for the development of hard-to-decarbonise sectors that cannot be electrified, or which have no viable alternatives to fossil fuels such as industry and heavy transport including aviation, shipping and road haulage.The potential of hydrogen is well understood, and has been a subject of IRENA analyses and studies since 2018. What is more important now is to implement policies and regulatory frameworks, and to provide incentives to establish and ramp-up a new hydrogen industry. Given that individual nations are unable to do this alone, the focus must be on fostering closer collaboration between countries to develop the mechanism to enable new hydrogen markets.The announcement by the German G7 Presidency of the G7 Hydrogen Action Pact in May 2022 signalled the Groups intent to strengthen joint development of hydrogen and power-to-X value chains, and to streamline the implementation of existing multilateral initiatives that are committed to deploying hydrogen.The analysis undertaken by IRENA to assist the development of the Hydrogen Action Pact resulted in the recommendations presented in this report. These aim to support the efforts by G7 leaders to align policy making and prioritise actions to harmonise standards and certification; share lessons from early implementation; balance the focus on supply with demand creation; promote hydrogen uptake in industrial applications; and establish more targeted collaboration with industry stakeholders and civil society.This work was made possible by the engagement of delegates of the G7 countries, under the leadership of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Action (BMWK).The G7 group of countries has the opportunity to play a leading role in accelerating the development of a global hydrogen market. The recommendations presented in this report mark the start of this journey for the policy makers and stakeholders who will facilitate a new hydrogen trade.It is time for action and IRENA remains committed to working with G7 leaders to ensure a fair, sustainable and secure energy transition.Francesco La CameraDirector-GeneralInternational RenewableEnergy Agency3ACCELERATING HYDROGEN DEPLOYMENT IN THE G7CONTENTSFigures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . .06Tables and Boxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對. .08Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . .09EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . 1001. G7 AND THE HYDROGEN SECTOR. . 161.1.Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . 161.2.Energy and hydrogen overview in the G7. . . . . . . . . .191.3.Country-specific factsheets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40CANADA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . 40EUROPEAN UNION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48FRANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . 56GERMANY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . 65ITALY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . .73JAPAN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . 80 UNITED KINGDOM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. . . . . . . . .96402. CROSS STRATEGY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . .1052.1.Policy framing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . .1062.2.Hydrogen priorities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . 1072.3.Hydrogen policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . .1112.4.Hydrogen valleys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . .1152.5.Hydrogen definition and support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1152.6.Uneven hydrogen diplomacy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1162.7.Differentiated stages of deployment. . . . . . . . . . . .11703. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE G7. .119PILLAR 01Align efforts on standards and certification. . .121PILLAR 02 Collaborate internationally and share lessonsfrom early implementation. . . . . . . . . . . 123PILLAR 03Balance focus on supply with demand creation.125PILLAR 04Promote hydrogen uptake in industrialapplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 .127PILLAR 05Conduct outreach to civil society and industrystakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對129References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . .131Annex Methodology for estimating renewable potential. . . . .1375ACCELERATING HYDROGEN DEPLOYMENT IN THE G7FIGURESFigure S1Recommendations for G7 members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . .12Figure 1.1Primary energy supply mix and electricity mix in 2020 by G7 member. . . . 20Figure 1.2Global hydrogen demand in 2020 and share from G7 members andChina (MtH2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Figure 1.3Hydrogen strategy published or under development, July 2022 . . . . . . .23Figure 1.4Hydrogen demand growth to 2050 by G7 member (including uncertainty).24Figure 1.5Estimated hydrogen production cost from solar PV for G7 members in2021 as a function of CAPEX and WACC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對26Figure 1.6G7 members share of high value inventions over the total inventions andcountries high value invention share in hydrogen technologies. . . . . . .29Figure 1.7Flow of international inventions for G7 members. . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Figure 1.8Specialisation index of G7 members plus China concerning hydrogentechnology areas, comparing average values in the periods 2010-2014and 2015-2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Figure 1.9Carbon pricing level, coverage, and total emissions across G7 members. .33Figure 1.10Hydrogen Certification Market Initiatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對36Figure 1.11Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42Figure 1.12Supply cost curve for Canada in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . . . . . . .43Figure 1.13Hydrogen exports from Canada across scenarios for 2050. . . . . . . . .44Figure 1.14Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimation in theEuropean Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . .50Figure 1.15Supply cost curve for the European Union in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . 51Figure 1.16Total hydrogen imports to the European Union across scenarios for 2050. .52Figure 1.17Survey of hydrogen demand estimates for 2050 in France. . . . . . . . .57Figure 1.18Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59Figure 1.19Supply cost curve for France in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Figure 1.20Total hydrogen imports to France across scenarios for 2050. . . . . . . . 61Figure 1.21Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67Figure 1.22Supply cost curve for Germany in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . .68Figure 1.23Total hydrogen imports to Germany across scenarios for 2050. . . . . . .69Figure 1.24Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimation in Italy. . 75Figure 1.25Supply cost curve for Italy in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . . . . . . . . . .76Figure 1.26Total hydrogen imports to Italy across scenarios for 2050. . . . . . . . .776FIGURESFigure 1.27Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . .對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82Figure 1.28Supply cost curve for Japan in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . . . . . . .83Figure 1.29Total hydrogen imports to Japan across scenarios for 2050. . . . . . . . 84Figure 1.30Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin the United Kingdom. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Figure 1.31Supply cost curve for the United Kingdom in a low-cost scenario in 2030. .91Figure 1.32Land types and exclusion criteria for renewable potential estimationin the United States對98. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Figure 1.33Supply cost curve for the United States in a low-cost scenario in 2030. . .99Figure 1.34Total hydrogen export flows from the United States across scenariosfor 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Figure 2.1Complementarity between electrification and hydrogen across end useapplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110Figure 2.2Policy options to deal with the cost gap for hydrogen derivativesand offtake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112Figure 2.3Use of a stage approa