世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2022年9月（英）-31正式版.doc

Centre for the New Economy and SocietyChief Economists OutlookSeptember 2022每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimerThis document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.2Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookSeptember 2022This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading Chief Economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geo-economic and geopolitical events.3Chief Economists OutlookContents1. Context_ 52. The outlook darkens_ _ 6 Global growth falters_ _ 6 Inflation heightens recession risks_ _ 93. The cost of living bites_ _ 13 Real wages continue to fall_ 13 Food and energy security under threat_ 14 Social unrest is on the rise_ 174. Debt dynamics deteriorate_ 185. Global fragmentation deepens_ _ 20 Geopolitics and the global economy_ 20 Businesses adapt to an unsteady global landscape_ _ 216. Looking ahead_ 23References_ 24Contributors_ 28Acknowledgements_ _ 29Cover: Unsplash/Digital Solacism4Chief Economists Outlook1. ContextThe September 2022 Chief Economists Outlook1 launches at a time of significant economic danger. The risks highlighted in our May outlook have begun to crystallize, dramatically so in the case of persistent inflation, which has surged to levels not seen in a generation in response to a combination of demand-side and supply-side factors. This in turn has triggered a sharp tightening of monetary policy in many countries, including the United States, threatening to choke off global growth. Meanwhile, real wages and consumer confidence are in freefall, adding further headwinds to growth and raising the prospect of social unrest.Against this daunting backdrop, leaders face a catalogue of challenging decisions and trade-offs. As policy-makers seek to rein in inflation they risk triggering recession and a spike in unemployment. Introducing fiscal support measures for struggling households risks adding to levels of public borrowing that are already high after the outlays required by previouscrises. Debt distress is at worrying levels among lower-income countries, increasing their exposure to additional shocks, such as climate-related natural disasters and placing many in a vicious cycle of debt servicing costs. The aftereffects of the pandemic era disruptions and the ongoing war in Ukraine are contributory factors in the current global economic picture.The longer-term risk is that deepening geopolitical fissures continue to undermine policy coordination, weaken the global interconnectedness built over numerous decades and reduce opportunity, investment and growth potential for all. This is dramatically illustrated by changes to global supply chains as businesses seek to recalibrate in response to numerous shocks to global political and economic systems. Domestically and globally, we are in uncharted waters in the months ahead, and the repercussions of decisions by policy-makers and business leaders will be with us for years to come.1 Data collection for the Chief Economists Survey was concluded on 11 September 2022. Editing was concluded on 20 September 2022.5Chief Economists Outlook2. The outlook darkensGlobal growth faltersThe prospects for the global economy have dimmed according to the results of our latest survey of chief economists. Expectations for growth have been pared back in all regions and almost three-quarters of respondents now consider aFigure 1. Global recession outlook How likely is a global recession in 2023?global recession to be at least somewhat likely. This darkening of mood is in line with consensus forecasts. For example, in July the IMF trimmed 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from its global growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, to 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively.2 Extremely unlikely Somewhat unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat likely Extremely likelyGlobal recession risk141414649Share of respondents (%)Note: The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down.Source: Chief Economists Survey, August 2022On a disaggregated basis, our survey again highlighted Europe and China as being weak points in the global growth outlook this year. Almost nine out of ten respondents expect growth in Europe to be weak or very weak. This is unsurprising given the headwinds facing the region, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation and threats to energy suppliesahead of a potentially extremely challenging winter.3 Respondents are marginallyless pessimistic about Chinas growth prospects, with 67% expecting weak or very weak growth in 2022, but concerns about the countrys real estate sector and its COVID-19 restrictions continue to cast a shadow on the growth outlook.42 IMF, July 2022.3 See European Investment Bank, June 2022 for a detailed analysis of the wars impact on the European recovery.4 Sano and Cheng, September 2022.6Chief Economists OutlookFigure 2. Economic growthWhat is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies for years 2022 and 2023?Very weakWeakModerateStrongVery strongMiddle East and202262424416North Africa20236245912East Asia and Pacific20222250282023393922South Asia20221767172023246512Sub-Saharan Africa2022635536202364747United States2022365952023955325Latin America and202264450the Caribbean202367124Central Asia202265044202365044China202210572952023335214Europe20222364142023275995Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey, August 2022Moving into 2023, there is a notable divergence in respondents expectations for Europe and China. A slight, further weakening of growth is expected in Europe, whereas there is a marked increase in the proportion of respondents expecting a pick-up to moderate growth or better in China. The projected improvement in China in 2023 also diverges from the expected trajectory for the United States: more than 60% of respondents expect moderate growth or better in the US this year, but less than half as many are as optimistic for 2023. A key driver of this slowdown is the likely continuation of monetary tightening in the US, which we discuss in the next section.Elsewhere in the world, our survey points to a broadly positive outlook for full-year growth in 2022 across most regions. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region looks set to perform particularly well, with around 71% of respondents expecting growthto be moderate or better, in line with the strong year enjoyed by the regions many energy exporters. For example, Saudi Arabiaexperienced record growth in the first half of 2022, and the IMF expects it to record GDP growth of 7.6% for the full year.5 The outlook for MENA remains broadly positive in 2023, with an unchanged proportion of respondents expecting moderate growth or better, but there is a sharp reduction in the proportion expecting growth to be strong or very strong (from 47% to 12%).In South Asia, the vast majority of respondents expect moderate growth in both 2022 and 2023, but there is an uptick (from 7% to 20%) in the proportion suggesting growth will be weak. A more pronounced version of this trend is recorded in Central Asia, where the proportion expecting weak growth doubles from 20% to 40%, while in sub-Saharan Africa the large majority (43%) expecting weak growth in 2022 becomes a solid majority (60%) in 2023. By contrast, respondents are modestly more upbeat about Latin Americas prospects next year than this year, with a small increase in the proportion (from 50% to 56%) expecting moderate growth.5Mati and Rehman, August 2022 and IMF, September 2022.7Chief Economists OutlookFigure 3. Employment growthWhat is your expectation for employment growth in the following geographies for years 2022 and 2023?Very weakWeakModerateStrongVery strongUnited States202225401520202355405East Asia and Pacific20227801320231981Middle East and2022235423North Africa2023206713South Asia2022787720232080Central Asia20222073720234060Sub-Saharan Africa2022435720236040Europe202210353025202356035Latin America and20225050the Caribbean20234456China20221331562023315613Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey, August 2022Our survey respondents appear som