亚开行-亚洲债券监测——2022年11月（英）-110正式版.pdf
Asia Bond Monitor November 2022This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook,risks,and policy options.It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Peoples Republic of China;Hong Kong,China;and the Republic of Korea.About the Asian Development BankADB is committed to achieving a prosperous,inclusive,resilient,and sustainable Asia and the Pacific,while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.Established in 1966,it is owned by 68 members 49 from the region.Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue,loans,equity investments,guarantees,grants,and technical assistance.ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila,Philippineswww.adb.orgASIA BOND MONITORNOVEMBER 2022ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKThe Asia Bond Monitor(ABM)is part of the Asian BondMarkets Initiative,an ASEAN+3 initiative supported by the Asian Development Bank(ADB).This report is part of the implementation of a technical assistance project funded by the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund of the Government of Japan under the Regional Cooperation and Integration Financing Partnership Facility.This edition of the ABM was prepared by a team from ADBs Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department headed by Albert Park and supervised by Abdul Abiad,director of the Macroeconomics Research Division.The production of the ABM was led by Shu Tian and Donghyun Park,and supported by the AsianBondsOnline team.The AsianBondsOnline team members include Angelica Andrea Cruz,Debbie Gundaya,Jeremy Grace Ilustrisimo,Russ Jason Lo,Patrick Vincent Lubenia,Resi Olivares,and Roselyn Regalado.Mai Lin Villaruel provided operational support,Kevin Donahue provided editorial assistance,Principe Nicdao did the typesetting and layout,and Carlo Monteverde and Erickson Mercado provided websitesupport.Contributions from Sylvia Chen(senior sustainable officer)of Amundi,Gemma Estrada(senior economics officer),David Keith de Padua(economics officer),IrfanQureshi(economist),and Mai Lin Villaruel(economics officer),all from ADBs Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department;JohnBeirne(vice-chair of research and senior research fellow)and Pradeep Panthi(research associate)of the ADBInstitute;Hyun-Hoon Lee(professor)and Danbee Park(assistant professor)of Kangwon National University;Cheonkoo Kim(research fellow)of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry;Jungsoo Park(professor)of Sogang University are gratefullyacknowledged.How to reach us:Asian Development Bank Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTel+63 2 8632 6545E-mail:asianbonds_feedbackadb.orgDownload the ABM athttp:/asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_nov_2022.pdf.The Asia Bond Monitor November 2022 was prepared by ADBs Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department and does not necessarily reflect the views of the ADB Board of Governors or the governments theyrepresent.ASIA BOND MONITORNOVEMBER 2022ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)2022 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City,1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTel+63 2 8632 4444;Fax+63 2 8636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved.Published in 2022.ISBN 978-92-9269-859-1(print);978-92-9269-860-7(electronic);978-92-9269-861-4(ebook)ISSN 2219-1518(print),2219-1526(electronic)Publication Stock No.TCS220523-2DOI:http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS220523-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank(ADB)or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area,or by using the term“country”inthis document,ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.By using the content of this publication,you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license.For attribution,translations,adaptations,and permissions,please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication.If the material is attributed toanother source,please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content,or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms,or for permission to use theADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Note:ADB recognizes“China”as the Peoples Republic of China;“Hong Kong”and“Hongkong”as Hong Kong,China;“Korea”as the Republic of Korea;“Siam”as Thailand;“Vietnam”as Viet Nam;“Russia”as the Russian Federation;“Hanoi”as Ha Noi;and“Saigon”as HoChi Minh City.Cover design by Erickson Mercado.ContentsEmerging East Asian Local CurrencyBond Markets:A Regional UpdateExecutive Summary .viGlobal and Regional Market Developments .1Bond Market Developments in the Third Quarter of 2022.13Recent Developments in ASEAN+3 Sustainable Bond Markets.38Policy and Regulatory Developments.42Special Topics on Financial Markets.45Market SummariesChina,Peoples Republic of.52Hong Kong,China.57Indonesia.62Korea,Republic of.68Malaysia.74Philippines.79Singapore.85Thailand.89Viet Nam.95Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets:A Regional UpdateExecutive SummaryRecent Developments in Emerging EastAsian Financial ConditionsEmerging East Asia witnessed the accelerating deterioration of financial conditions and rising bond yields between 31 August and 4 November,largely driven by aggressive monetary tightening in major advanced economies.1 Nearly all major emerging East Asian central banks continued to pursue monetary tightening to combat persistent domestic inflation and the impact of tightening by the United States(US)Federal Reserve.During the review period from 31 August to 4 November,regional currencies depreciated against the US dollar by a gross-domestic-product-weighted average of 4.2%,equities declined by a market-weighted-average of 7.5%,and risk premiums,as proxied by credit spreads,widened by a gross-domestic-product-weighted average of 28basis points.Deteriorating financial conditions were much more pronounced during the review period than during any prior months in 2022.Theaccelerated deterioration in financial conditions followed the release of higher-than-expected August inflation data in the US,which led to market expectations that the FederalReserve would persist with its aggressive monetary tightening.TheFederal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75basispoints in November,and implied that interest rates may rise higher than previously expected.Aggressive monetary tightening in the US and negative market sentiment also led to portfolio outflows from the region.Regional equity markets recorded aggregate net outflows of USD5.6 billion during the review period.The largest net outflows were observed in the PeoplesRepublic of China(PRC),amounting to USD7.8 billion,amid a negative economic outlook due to uncertainties related to pandemic containment measures.Portfolio outflows were also noted in most regional bond markets in September as accelerated US monetary tightening not only subdued investment sentiment toward risky assets but also made yields on regional bonds relatively less attractive.The risk outlook for regional financial conditions remained tilted to the downside.In the short-term,the region faces a bleak economic outlook and uncertainties over a larger-than-expected slowdown in the PRC,continued global inflationary pressure,aggressive monetary tightening both globally and domestically,and greater-than-expected fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Over the medium term,during the transition of some regional economies to net-zero emissions,emerging East Asias financial sector will be challenged by asset vulnerability,especially in high-emitting sectors that could experience higher cash flow uncertainties,increased financing costs,and stranded asset issues.Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets in Emerging East Asia Amid headwinds to the global and regional outlooks,the expansion of emerging East Asias local currency(LCY)bond market moderated to 2.3%quarter-on-quarter(q-o-q)and 12.5%year-on-year(y-o-y)in the third quarter(Q3)of 2022 from 3.1%q-o-q and 14.0%y-o-y in the second quarter(Q2).The amount of LCY bonds outstanding in emerging East Asia reached USD22.0trillion at the end of September.Issuance of LCY bonds totaled USD2.2 trillion during Q3 2022,contracting 1.1%q-o-q and rising 5.4%y-o-y,compared with issuance growth of 13.6%q-o-q and 12.1%y-o-y in Q2 2022.Government bonds continued to dominate emerging East Asias LCY bond market.At the end of September,outstanding government bonds reached USD14.0trillion and accounted for 63.6%of the regional bond markets size.During Q3 2022,issuance of government bonds totaled USD1.4 trillion on a contraction of 4.5%q-o-q,as some governments had already fulfilled most of their 1 Emerging East Asia is defined to include member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)plus the Peoples Republic of China;Hong Kong,China;and the Republic of Korea.2 ASEAN+3 is defined to include member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)plus the Peoples Republic of China;Hong Kong,China;Japan;and the Republicof Korea.Executive Summaryviiannual financing requirements.Regional corporate bond issuance totaled USD0.8 trillion on growth of 5.7%q-o-q,which was largely driven by Chinese companies(7.2%growth in issuance)taking advantage of monetary easing measures designed to stimulate economic recovery.Corporate bond issuance in member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)contracted 2.0%q-o-q in Q3 2022 on rising interest rates and a bleak economic outlook.The dimming economic outlook and monetary tightening in both regional and global markets weighed on ASEAN+3s sustainable bond market in Q3 2022.2 Sustainable bonds outstanding in ASEAN+3 economies reached USD521.6 billion at the end of September on moderating growth of 1.7%q-o-q versus 5.0%q-o-q in Q2 2022.The regions sustainable bond issuance totaled USD49.8 billion in Q3 2022 on a contraction of 25.3%q-o-q,reversing the 2.6%q-o-q growth posted in Q22022.ASEAN+3s sustainable bond market witnessed improved diversification in terms of market profile and bond types.The regions sustainable bond market has significant potential for increased issuance from the public sector,more long-term bonds,and more bonds issued in local currencies.Special Topics on Financial Markets The November 2022 issue of the Asia Bond Monitor presents two special sections.Special Section 1:Local Currency Bond Market Development and Exchange Rate VolatilityRecent accelerated monetary tightening in the US has led to currency depreciations and capital outflows in emerging markets,highlighting their vulnerability to global shocks.Several studies have linked LCY bond market development and financial stability by addressing financial market structural issues such as the“double mismatch”problem.The research highlighted in this special section provides empirical evidence that,after controlling for economic fundamentals,emerging economies benefit from lower exchange rate volatility during periods of market turmoil when they have a larger LCY bond market,a greater share of LCY bonds in the overall bond market,and relatively more long-term bonds.Emerging economies should therefore consider designing policies to develop their LCY bond markets to promote financial stability and resiliency in the face of external shocks.Special Section 2:Does Regional Trade Integration Automatically Foster Regional Financial Integration?The Case of Regional Comprehensive Economic PartnershipThe Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)free trade agreement among 15 economies in Asia and the Pacific came into effect on 1 January 2022.New empirical analysis explores whether growing regional trade integration within the trading bloc,where 50%of all current trade is intra-RCEP,has also led to greater regional financial integration.The evidence clearly shows that the financial markets of RCEP economies have not yet become more closely integrated with each other.Thissuggests that financial integration requires institutional efforts such as the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Initiative to standardize regional market practices and enhance financial collaboration.Global and Regional Market DevelopmentsBond yields rose and financial conditions deteriorated in emerging East Asia on accelerating monetary tightening.Government bond yields rose across emerging EastAsia during the review period from 31 August to 4November,largely due to higher bond yields in advanced economies and continued monetary tightening globally.To address financial and price stability concerns,almost all major regional central banks hiked interest rates during the review period,which,in combination with a bleak economic outlook,weighed on domestic financial conditions in the region.During the review period,emerging East Asias major currencies depreciated against the United States(US)dollar by a gross-domestic-product(GDP)-weighted average of 4.2%,equity markets retreated by a market-weighted average of 7.5%,and risk premiums widened by a GDP-weighted average of 28basis points(bps)(TableA).1Government bond yields in the US and major European markets surged between 31 August and 4November.The2-year government bond yield in the US and Germany rose by 117 bps and 93 bps,respectively,following policy rate hikes by their respective central banks(Table B).The10-year government bond yield rose 97bps and 75bps in the US and Germany,respectively,on higher policy rates and persistent inflation.In the United Kingdom,10-year bond yields surged by 74bps following the 23 September announcement of a series of tax cuts,which led to market panic over concern that government indebtedness would sharply increase.This was further exacerbated when bond price declines triggered margin calls among pension funds,forcing additional bond sales.The Bank of England was forced
