亚开行-建设城市穷人的复原力：系统性变革的建议（英）-2022.11-54正式版.pdf
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKNOVEMBER 2022BUILDING RESILIENCE OF THE URBAN POOR:RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKNOVEMBER 2022BUILDING RESILIENCE OF THE URBAN POOR:RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)2022 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City,1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTel+63 2 632 4444;Fax+63 2 636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved.Published in 2022.ISBN 978-92-9269-806-5(print);978-92-9269-807-2(electronic);978-92-9269-808-9(ebook)Publication Stock No.TCS220444-2DOI:http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS220444-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank(ADB)or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area,or by using the term“country”inthis document,ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.By using the content of this publication,you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license.For attribution,translations,adaptations,and permissions,please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccessThis CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication.If the material is attributed toanother source,please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content,or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms,or for permission to use theADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS220444-2.Cover design by Lowil Fred Espada.On the cover(from left to right):(i)A Typhoon Ulysses-affected resident of San Mateo,Rizal,Philippines carrying the support she received under the Bayan Bayanihan program;(ii)Community members in Indonesia participating in the decision-making process(photo by RISE Program);and(iii)The construction site of a three-story multipurpose cyclone shelter at Surikata Government Primary School in Amtali Pourashava,Barguna District,Bangladesh.Printed on recycled paperContentsAcknowledgments vDefinition of Key Terms and Concepts viAbbreviations viiiExecutive Summary ix1 The Case for a Change in Approach to Building the Resilience of the Urban Poor 11.1 The Need for Change 21.2 A Framework for Change 41.3 The Benefits of Change 72 The Pathway to a Change in Approach to Building the Resilience of the Urban Poor 92.1 A Pathway to Change 102.2 Entry Points to Change 113 Strategic Interventions on the Pathway to Building the Resilience of the Urban Poor 153.1 Strategic Interventions Starting at the Household 163.2 Strategic Interventions Starting at the Neighborhood 203.3 Strategic Interventions Starting at the City 223.4 Interventions to Strengthen the Enabling Environment 244 Conclusion 27APPENDIXES 29APPENDIX 1 Background to the Synthesis Report 29APPENDIX 2 The Need for Change Associated with Key Policy Areas 30APPENDIX 3 The Need for Change Associated with the Enabling Environment 37REFERENCES 41Figures1 A Continuum of Adaptation Strategies 32 A Framework for Systemic Change 53 Integrated and Complementary Action with the Household as an Entry Point 174 Integrated and Complementary Action with the Neighborhood as an Entry Point 215 Integrated and Complementary Action with the City as an Entry Point 23Building Resilience of the Urban PoorivAcknowledgmentsThis regional report is one of the outputs of the regional technical assistance project of the Asian Development Bank(ADB)for Advancing Inclusive and Resilient Urban Development Targeted at the Urban Poor.The project is financed by the Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust Fund(UCCRTF),administered by ADB and with financial support from The Rockefeller Foundation and the governments of Switzerland and the United Kingdom.The regional report distills the findings and recommendations of the Resilience for the Urban Poor Forum 2021(RUP2021),the country diagnostic studies on building climate and disaster resilience of the urban poor in Indonesia and the Philippines,and the background studies undertaken for the upcoming Coastal Towns Climate Resilience Sector Project in Bangladesh,which were undertaken by technical assistance in close consultation with governments and relevant stakeholders.It discusses the importance of new approaches to building resilience of the urban poor,as well as the recommendations for systemic change by identifying opportunities and entry points.Kirsten McDonald,associate principal of Arup prepared the report under the overall guidance and supervision of technical assistance co-team leaders Arghya Sinha Roy,principal climate change specialist(climate change adaptation),Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department(SDCC),and Yukiko Ito,principal social development specialist,SDCC.The report gained additional inputs from discussions during the RUP2021 event held 16-18 November 2021,which tackled the findings and recommendations of the country diagnostic studies and identified opportunities for scaling up pro-poor policies and investments at different scales to strengthen resilience of the urban poor.The report benefited from the technical inputs,comments,and feedback provided by David Dodman,director,International Institute for Environment and Development,alongside members of the UCCRTF team.These included Virinder Sharma,principal urban development specialist,SDCC,and Joy Amor Bailey,consultant.Technical assistance personnel and consultants Cristina Gregorio,Anna Marie Karaos,Rowena Mantaring,and Fatima Angela Marifosque also contributed to the report This report was edited by Layla Tanjutco-Amar,proofread by Levi Rodolfo Lusterio,and page proof checked by Marjorie Celis.Graphics and layout were done by Lowil Espada in collaboration with Melanie Sison,knowledge management and communications consultant.vDefinition of Key Terms and ConceptsAdaptive social protectionSocial protection that delivers on resilience outcomesreduced risk,strengthened capacity to adapt,and enhanced residual risk management strategies to help recover from the adverse impacts of climate change and disaster-related shocks and stresses(ADB 2018).Anticipatory adaptationAdaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed;also referred to as proactive adaptation(McCarthy et al.2001,p.982).Autonomous adaptationAdaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems;also referred to as spontaneous adaptation(McCarthy et al.2001,p.982).Business-as-usualBusiness-as-usual in the context of this document refers to actions to strengthen the resilience of urban poor and near poor which do not address the underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change and disaster risk.Cascading riskCascading risk is typically understood“as a chain of causality that emerges when hazards,risk and accumulated vulnerabilities connect across multiple scales to produce a disaster”(Zaidi 2018,p.307).Climate changeA change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties,and that persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer(IPCC 2018,p.544).Climate departureThe point at which the average temperature of the coolest year from then on is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of its hottest year between 1960 and 2005(Fujii 2016).Climate riskThe risks to natural and human systems induced by climate change;onset can be both slow(such as droughts and increases in temperature)or rapid(such as storms and flash floods).Compounding riskInteraction of multiple hazards that have an impact that is extreme and greater than the sum of the parts.(Zaidi 2018).Coping strategiesCoping strategies(or mechanisms)are a way of responding to an experienced impact that enable short-term survival.Coping does not address underlying drivers of vulnerability but brings about short-term change that enables a system to survive experienced shocks and stresses.Covariate eventsShocks and stresses can be referred to as covariate or idiosyncratic.Covariate events are widespread,infrequent events that directly affect large numbers of people in a given geographic area.Entry pointIn the context of this report,entry points are the openings or opportunities for national governments or cities and urban municipalities to strategically invest in actions that contribute to building resilience of urban poor and near poor to climate change and disaster risk.Building Resilience of the Urban PoorviHigh-regret approachHigh-regret approaches are high-risk investments that yield benefits or positive returns in the long-term under specific future climate scenarios.High-regret approaches respond to future climate variability and contribute to building the capacity to adapt to future uncertainty.High-regret approaches require planning and consideration of uncertainty.Investment in relocating critical infrastructure or the construction of protective infrastructure are examples of a high-regret approach.Idiosyncratic eventsShocks and stresses can be referred to as covariate or idiosyncratic.Idiosyncratic events are significant events that affect specific individuals or households within a community.Incremental adaptationIncremental adaptation includes interventions that address the proximate causes of vulnerability rather than the underlying drivers of vulnerability.Incremental adaptation can be considered business-as-usual(ADB 2020)as it does not significantly change existing drivers of vulnerability.Incremental adaptation brings about small-scale change that enables a system to respond to immediate and anticipated shocks and stresses.Low-regret approach Low-regret approaches are low-risk investments in adaptation that yield benefits or positive returns in the short-,medium-,and long-term under many future climate scenarios.Low-regret approaches respond to both current and future climate variability and contribute to building the capacity to adapt to future uncertainty.No-regret approachNo-regret approaches are very low-risk investments in adaptation that yield benefits or positive returns in the short-term without consideration of the risks associated with future climate scenarios.No-regret approaches respond to current climate variability and contribute to building the capacity to adapt to future uncertainty.No-regret approaches can be implemented immediately.Planned adaptationAdaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision,based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to,maintain,or achieve a desired state(McCarthy et al.2001,p.982).Resilience“(T)he ability of countries,communities,businesses,and individual households to resist,absorb,recover from,and reorganize in response to natural hazard events,without jeopardizing their sustained socioeconomic advancement and development”(ADB 2013,p.5).Transformational adaptationTransformational adaptation involves interventions that address the underlying drivers of vulnerability.Transformational adaptation“challenges and significantly changes fundamental attributes of existing social structures and power relations”(ADB 2020,p.3).Transformational adaptation brings about change that enables a system to learn from and transform in response to future and uncertain shocks and stresses.Urban povertyIncome-based urban poverty,which uses either the international or national poverty line as a benchmark or the multidimensional poverty index,the latter recognizing that poverty goes beyond income to include access to basic services,education,and social protection as well as rights.viiDefinition of Key Terms and ConceptsAbbreviations ADB Asian Development BankMFImicrofinance institutionMSMEmicro,small,and medium-sized enterpriseNGO nongovernment organizationRUP2021 Resilience for the Urban Poor Forum 2021SDCCSustainable Development and Climate Change DepartmentUCCRTFUrban Climate Change Resilience Trust FundBuilding Resilience of the Urban PoorviiiExecutive SummaryClimate change and disaster risk are increasing and while the impacts are already being felt globally,people living below or just above the poverty line in urban areas are highly vulnerable and at risk.Without action to address the structural inequalities that are the underlying drivers of vulnerability and build resilience to climate change and disasters,there is a risk that the number of poor and near-poor households in urban areas in Asia will rise over time,increasing the vulnerability of entire urban and country systems.The action needed requires a change from the business-as-usual approaches to addressing risk,to new approaches that have an explicit focus on the urban poor and near poor,and that put the urban poor and near poor at the center of decision-making.Crucial to these new approaches is an explicit focus on the drivers of vulnerability of the urban poor and near poor to climate change and disaster risk.The key to change is integrated action across specific policy areas that bridges households,neighborhoods,and cities,as well as sectors,and jurisdictional boundaries and that is complementary over time.National governments in partnership with other stakeholders have a critical role in supporting urban areas leading the change to new approaches that have an explicit focus on the drivers of vulnerability and bring about systemic change.By changing their approach to six policy areasurban planning and development,social protection,housing,livelihoods,health,and integrated infrastructurefrom fragmented and siloed to integrated and coordinated through risk-informed and inclusive governance,and by making available finance at the household,neighborhood,and city levels,national governments can create an enabling environment for securing and sustaining resilience in individual urban areas,and for facilitating the innovation and partnerships necessary to scale up nationally.Several key openings or opportunities exist in each country and in each city to bring about systemic change
