PitchBook-全球基金业绩报告（截至2022年第一季度含2022年第二季度初步数据）-20正式版.pdf

2022As of Q1 2022 with preliminary Q2 2022 dataGLOBALFund PerformanceReport2ContentsPitchBook Data,Inc.John Gabbert Founder,CEONizar Tarhuni Senior Director,Institutional Research&EditorialDylan Cox,CFA Head of Private Markets ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisGLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)DataZane Carmean,CFA,CAIA Lead Quantitative Research APublishingReport designed by Chloe Ladwig&Julia MidkiffPublished on November 8,2022Click here for PitchBooks report methodologies.Click here for PitchBooks private market glossary.Overview3Private equity6Venture capital8Real estate10Real assets12Private debt14Funds of funds16Secondaries18Horizon IRRs by strategy*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*Yearly horizons are as of March 31,2022*Preliminary quarterly returnHilary Wiek,CFA,CAIA Lead Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable IKyle Stanford,CAIA Senior Analyst,US Venture LTim Clarke Senior Analyst,Private EAnikka Villegas Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable IKyle Walters Associate Analyst,Private EJuliet Clemens Analyst,Fund S xQ2 2022*1-year3-year5-year10-yearPrivate equity-3.2%29.9%26.1%21.8%17.1%Venture capital-2.3%24.3%30.6%24.3%17.1%Real estate3.6%27.8%14.4%12.4%12.7%Real assets2.2%22.5%8.1%8.0%7.1%Private debt-1.8%12.9%9.3%8.6%9.1%Funds of funds4.8%30.5%24.9%19.9%14.7%Secondaries4.7%42.1%21.2%18.6%14.5%Private capital-1.1%27.0%20.7%17.5%14.5%An accompanying Excel file contains additional charts and all underlying data for this report.PitchBook Benchmarks(as of Q1 2022 with preliminary Q2 2022 data)may be found here.The quarterly report provides greater detail than the Fund Performance Report,with granular IRR,multiple,and PME breakouts for Global,North America,Europe,Private Equity,Venture Capital,Real Estate,Real Assets,Private Debt,Funds of Funds,and Secondaries.Both Excel and PDF versions are available.3GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)OVERVIEWOverviewPrivate equityVenture capitalReal estateReal assetsPrivate debtFunds of fundsSecondaries-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1201720182019202020212022*Rolling one-year horizon IRRs by strategy Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Hilary Wiek,CFA,CAIA Lead Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable Investing Through the first quarter of 2022,one-year private fund performance was still at historically high levels,as more muted performance in Q1 2022 was still overcome by three quarters of phenomenal 2021 performance.While well off from the 42.8%one-year figure seen just three quarters earlier,the 27.0%overall private capital return was still well ahead of the 10-year average of 14.5%.Preliminary figures for Q2 2022 do show a recognition that the macro environment has shifted,as private capital is indicating a-1.1%return.In the preliminary figures,PE and VC trailed the other private fund strategies in Q2 2022,with the highest fliers of 2021 having further to fall back to recognize the new normal.As often happens when the public markets fall dramatically,private markets tread a less volatile path.While arguments can and will be made that the muted volatility in private funds versus public markets may not fully reflect reality,private funds valuations are not indicating much concern about the macro environment in comparison to the S&P 500.Inclusive of the preliminary results of Q2 2022,several strategies continued to increase in value in the first half of the year,although VC,PE,and private debt have all come off their peaks.Compared to the 20.0%drop in the S&P,however,the-6.7%VC return for the first six months through June was much milder than one might have expected given the headlines around the war in Ukraine,inflation,and the possibility of entering a recession.While private funds have not shown extreme volatility overall,within strategies the median returns mask a fairly high amount of dispersion,meaning that any one investors experience of individual funds may vary widely from the headline median numbers.As an example,while we report that VC funds that launched between 2004 and 2017 had a median IRR of 15.5%,top decile funds provided a 39.9%return or better and bottom decile funds have returned-6.7%or worse.Private debt continues to have the narrowest band of top-to-bottom returns,with the median IRR of 8.5%flanked by a top decile return of 15.7%and a bottom decile of 1.5%.Funds of funds(FoF)and secondaries have seen a nice positive skew to their return dispersiontop decile FoF performed 15.2%better than the 12.5%median,while bottom decile FoF only did 8.2%worse.Secondaries fund outcomes ranged from 14.9%above to 8.8%below the 13.6%median.4GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)OVERVIEW0%10%20%30%40%50%Real estateReal assetsPrivate debtSecondaries1-year3-year5-year10-yearPrivate capitalPrivate equityVenture capital Funds of fundsHorizon IRRs by strategy*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Private equityVenture capitalReal estateReal assetsPrivate debtFunds of fundsSecondariesS&P 500 TR 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2*20152016201720182019202020212022NAV growth rebased to 100 at end of Q4 2015*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of June 30,2022 Note:Q2 2022 data is preliminary5GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)OVERVIEW-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Private capitalPrivate equityVenture capital Real estateReal assetsPrivate debtFunds of fundsSecondariesTop and bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedian IRRBottom decileFund performance dispersion by strategy(vintage years 2004-2017)Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Pooled IRRs by vintage year*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,20222007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202010-year horizon IRR*11.3%13.6%18.9%19.8%22.1%20.3%21.7%25.3%25.2%34.1%40.5%43.1%50.9%50.1%19.7%10.6%13.4%14.5%16.8%16.9%17.6%17.7%24.6%23.9%28.2%34.7%33.0%48.2%47.0%17.1%10.0%13.1%12.8%14.0%16.6%16.2%17.3%20.9%21.9%24.2%34.1%30.3%47.8%42.1%16.8%9.5%11.5%12.6%13.6%16.4%16.1%16.2%20.0%19.4%23.6%30.5%29.9%37.4%40.8%14.7%6.5%11.0%11.5%13.6%15.1%14.1%12.0%17.0%18.3%23.1%21.2%29.5%35.8%38.7%14.5%6.2%7.9%11.5%12.7%14.2%14.0%12.0%13.1%14.9%15.7%19.1%18.1%35.2%37.5%12.8%5.8%7.8%11.2%10.8%13.3%13.4%11.5%12.2%11.7%13.8%16.4%17.4%29.9%35.2%12.7%5.0%5.9%8.7%9.0%9.0%12.0%10.7%10.8%11.3%11.8%16.2%16.9%18.2%32.5%10.4%3.7%5.1%6.8%8.0%6.0%7.1%6.8%10.2%9.2%10.2%12.0%12.0%15.5%14.5%9.1%2.4%-4.2%1.4%-5.7%1.9%0.1%6.5%6.4%7.8%8.8%8.7%9.5%12.8%13.1%3.3%Growth-expansionOil&gasBuyoutFunds of fundsInfrastructureSecondariesPrivate debtValue-add real estateOpportunistic real estateVenture capital6GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)PRIVATE EQUITYPrivate equity-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022*PE funds quarterly returnTim Clarke Senior Analyst,Private EquityA year ago,PE was celebrating its highest ever one-year return of 55.9%for the period ending in Q2 2021.Today,PE continues its inevitable slide toward a drawdown.Our tally for PE returns in Q1 2022 is 2.1%and our preliminary estimate for Q2 2022 is-3.2%.While not as severe as Q1 2020s 8.2%decline stemming from the global COVID-19 pandemic lockdown,we are unlikely to see a“one-and-done”episode as that one turned out to be.Recent results from public PE firms like EQT and Blackstone provide a glimpse of what may come in Q3 and beyond.While not providing a single point estimate,EQT guided to a flat PE value in Q3,as it believes its portfolio companies operational growth has fully offset shrinking deal and trading multiples where they apply.As EQT is based in Sweden,a favorable currency translation from a predominantly dollar denominated portfolio also helped shore up returns in Q3.EQT estimates that its PE-owned companies were still growing 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1201720182019202020212022*Private equity$250M$250M-$500M$500M-$1B$1B+PE funds rolling one-year horizon IRR by sizebucketSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of June 30,2022 Note:Q2 2022 data is preliminary7GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)PRIVATE EQUITYrevenue by 20%with EBITDA growth in“the mid-teens”as of August,defying predictions of a slowdown or inflation-induced profit squeeze.Blackstones Q3 results told a similar story.Like EQT,it is seeing 17%revenue growth for its portfolio companies,though it fully expects that growth to slow,especially at the EBITDA line.Due to currency being more of a headwind than tailwind,Blackstone reported a slight decline of 0.3%in PE portfolio value in Q3.This follows a 6.7%decline in Q2,or a total decline of 7.0%for the two quarters.To put this in perspective,the global financial crisis(GFC)produced five consecutive quarters of industry-wide write-downs to the tune of 29.3%.While no one is projecting a repeat of those dark days,its reasonable to expect another quarter or two of flat to negative returns after such a historic run-up.-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2007 2008 2009 20102011201220132014201520162017Vintage yearTop and bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedian IRRBottom decilePE fund performance dispersion by vintage year*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022ContributionsDistributionsNet cash flow-$800-$600-$400-$200$0$200$400$600$8002007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022*PE cash flows($B)Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,20221:“Q3 Announcement 2022:Future-Proofing our Global Platform,”EQT,October 18,2022.2:“Blackstone Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results,”Blackstone,October 20,2022.8GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)VENTURE CAPITALVenture capital-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022*VC funds quarterly returnKyle Stanford,CAIA Senior Analyst,US Venture LeadGlobal VC fund performance statistics have quickly fallen back to earth,marking a one-year rolling IRR of 24.3%through Q1,a datapoint much more in line with historical trends than with the sky-high performance of 2021.Ongoing turmoil in the public markets will continue to add drag to near-term performance of the strategy.The relative inability to exit in the current market and the decline in capital availability are circumstances that will lengthen hold times at best or lead to portfolio markdowns and possible down roundsall of which will negatively impact VC performance.The calculated quarterly return for VC funds turned negative in Q1 2022,becoming the first quarter that datapoint came in below even 5%since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q1 2020.Preliminary data for Q2 shows a second consecutive quarter of negative return,again due to the lack of IPOs globally.Public listings generated roughly 86%of the record$771 billion in US VC exit value from 2021as discussed in our Q3 2022 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitorhighlighting their influence on performance for the VC market.0%20%40%60%80%100%Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1201720182019202020212022*Venture capital$250M$250M+VC funds rolling one-year horizon IRR by fund size Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of June 30,2022 Note:Q2 2022 data is preliminary9GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)VENTURE CAPITALWithout a fruitful IPO market,the growing group of unicorns adds pressure to the venture market and the returns that the industry has generated in recent years.With part of VC fund performance being attributed to the growth of private,not-yet-realized valuations,we expect venture performance in the near term to hinge on the fortunes of this group.The top of the late-stage valuation market has more quickly corrected than other areas of VC,leaving these company valuations exposed with revenue multiples from 2021 and no clear path to realize those values for investors.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Vintage yearTop and bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedian IRRBottom decile VC fund performance dispersion by vintage year(vintage years 2004-2017)*-0.3x-0.2x-0.1x0 x0.1x200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Vintage yearPooled DPI deltaPooled RVPI deltaPooled TVPI deltaVC funds QoQ change in pooled cash multiples by vintage*Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,2022Source:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,202210GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)REAL ESTATEReal estate-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022*Real estate funds quarterly returnSource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of June 30,2022 Note:Q2 2022 data is preliminaryAnikka Villegas Analyst,Fund Strategies&Sustainable InvestingQ1 2022 marked the second consecutive quarter in which real estate achieved a post-GFC high with respect to rolling one-year horizon IRR,which hit 26.2%in Q4 2021,followed by 27.8%the next quarter.This record-breaking performanceas referenced in our Real Estate PitchBook Benchmarks(as of Q1 2022)is driven by North American returns,which struck a 30.7%one-year IRR,while European and rest-of-world numbers came in at 21.2%and 14.7%,respectively.Strategy-wise,robust one-year returns are coming largely from value-add and opportunistic funds,which had IRRs of 29.0%and 29.7%through Q1 2022.The first quarter of 2022 may have been a sweet spot for real estate funds when inflation allowed for an increase in rental income and for properties to fetch higher prices,but before interest rates dramatically affected the cost of capital.Preliminary quarterly returns for Q2 2022 are significantly lower at 3.6%after Q1s 7.3%,which was also down from the previous quarter.11GLOBAL FUND PERFORMANCE REPORT(AS OF Q1 2022)REAL ESTATESource:PitchBook|Geography:Global*As of March 31,20220%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q12016201720182019202020212022*All real estateValue-addOpportunisticReal estate funds rolling one-year horizon IRR by type It is likely that the effects of the inflationary environment and counter-inflationary policies will weigh more heavily on returns in upcoming quarters.As shelter comprises almost a third of the Consumer Price Index,it is interesting to see that Redfins new median US asking rent price index showed a quarter-over-quarter decline in September for the first time since 2020a desired outcome for renters and inflation watchers like the Federal Reserve(the Fed),but also a potential harbinger of turning tides for the sectors returns.While GPs are keeping a watchful eye on the space,this does