2012年钢铁行业分析steelsummery2012 summ.pdf
U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 1 Steel Industry Executive Summary:November 2012 Highlights U.S.imports of steel mill products decreased 2.7%to 2.36 million metric tons in September 2012.In September 2012,the U.S.steel trade deficit widened 2.9%to-1.4 million metric tons.U.S.steel production decreased by 6.8%to 7 million metric tons in September 2012.Table of Contents Trade-Imports of Steel Mill Products.2 Trade-China.2 Trade-United States Trade Balance in Steel.6 Trade-Steel Import Changes by Country and Product.7 Demand.10 Trade Remedy Case Determinations October/November 2012.12 Industry Status.12 SIMA Team Contact Information.14 List of Figures Figure 1-US Imports of All Steel Mill Products from World.2 Figure 2-US Imports of All Steel Mill Products from China.3 Figure 3-Chinas Imports/Exports of Steel Mill Products.4 Figure 4-Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner in September 2011.5 Figure 5-Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner in September 2012.5 Figure 8-U.S.Trade of All Steel Mill Products-Monthly.6 Figure 9-U.S.Domestic Steel Capacity Utilization.8 Figure 10-Monthly World Crude Steel Production.9 Figure 11-Monthly Crude Steel Production-Major Producers.9 Figure 12-Share of World Crude Steel Production.10 Figure 13-U.S.Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill Products.11 Figure 14-Import Penetration for All Steel Mill Products.11 Figure 15-U.S.Steel Industry,Quarterly Net Income.13 Figure 16-Steel Stocks vs.S&P 500,1 Year Activity.14 U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 2 Trade-Imports of Steel Mill Products U.S.imports of steel mill products decreased 2.7%to 2.36 million metric tons from August to September 2012,according to final Census figures.o U.S.steel imports in September 2012 are 15%above the volume in September 2011.o September 2012 steel imports are 9.6%above the 2011 average monthly volume of 2.2 million metric tons.Figure 1-US Imports of All Steel Mill Products from World Trade-China U.S.imports of steel mill products from China appeared to be on a steep rise in 2012,despite falling sharply in July and September.September 2012 imports are 109.2%above the most recent low in February 2011.o From August to September 2012,imports from China decreased 37.5%to 93.1 thousand metric tons,according to final Census data.o September 2012 imports from China are 6%below the volume in September 2011 and on par with the 2011 average.o U.S.imports from China represent a total of 3.9%of all U.S.steel imports,significantly below the 6.1%share in August 2012 and slightly below the 4.8%share one year ago.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 3 Figure 2-US Imports of All Steel Mill Products from China According to the latest available data from the three NAFTA countries,imports from China into NAFTA countries decreased 5.5%in volume from July 2012 to August 2012.August steel mill imports from China into NAFTA countries increased 21.8%in volume from August 2011.At 2.4 million metric tons,August steel imports into NAFTA countries from the world(excluding intra-NAFTA trade)were 10.1%below the volume in July 2012 and 19.3%above the volume in August 2011.Imports from China represented 5.8%of all NAFTA country steel imports in August 2012,above the 5.4%share in July 2012 and the 5.2%share in August 2011.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 4 Chinese steel mill exports increased significantly while imports slightly decreased from August 2012 to September 2012,widening Chinas steel trade surplus 32.6%to 3.7 million metric tons.o From August to September 2012,Chinese exports increased 22.5%to 4.9 million metric tons,10%below the most recent export peak in June 2010.o Chinese steel exports are 23.8%above September 2011 exports.o September 2012 steel mill exports are 2.7%above the volume of March 2012 exports and 111.6%above September 2009 exports.o Chinese imports in September 2012 were on par with August 2012 imports,at 1.2 million metric tons.Chinas steel imports for September 2012 are 6.6%below the volume of March 2012 imports,9.7%below imports a year ago,and 44%below imports in September 2009.Figure 3-Chinas Imports/Exports of Steel Mill Products Chinese steel mill exports increased 23.8%by volume from September 2011 to 2012.o The United States received the 9th largest share of Chinese steel exports at 2.6%in September 2012.o The volume of Chinese steel exports to the United States increased 29.2%to 130.9 thousand metric tons from September 2011 to September 2012.o From September 2011 to 2012,Chinas volume of steel mill exports to South Korea rose 18.5%.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 5 Figure 4-Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner in September 2011 Figure 5-Chinese Exports of Steel Mill Products by Partner in September 2012 U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 6 Trade-United States Trade Balance in Steel U.S.imports of steel mill products have fluctuated in the past few years,while exports have slowly increased.In September 2012,the steel trade deficit widened to -1.4 million metric tons,2.9%more than the deficit in August 2012.o Compared to the trade balance one year ago,the September 2012 steel trade deficit expanded 47.1%.o From August to September 2012,the volume of exports decreased 9.7%,while the volume of imports decreased 2.7%.o September 2012 exports are 12.8%less than the volume of September 2011 exports;September 2012 imports are 15%above the level a year ago.Exports and imports are still below the three-year highs in May 2012 and April 2012,respectively.Figure 6-U.S.Trade of All Steel Mill Products-Monthly U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 7 Trade-Steel Import Changes by Country and Product Notable Increases Country Product Average monthly quantity Aug 2012-Oct 2012(metric tons)Average monthly quantity Nov 2011-Jul 2012(metric tons)Percent change from Historic to Current average quantity JAPAN Plates Cut Lengths-C&A 7,999 2,409 232%FRANCE Plates Cut Lengths-C&A 7,406 2,516 194%MEXICO Bars-Light Shaped-C&A 7,036 2,692 161%TURKEY Standard Pipe-C&A 7,402 2,852 159%WORLD Strip-Hot Rolled-C&A 9,904 7,042 40%POLAND Blooms,Billets and Slabs-C&A 13,353.Notable Decreases Country Product Average monthly quantity Aug 2012-Oct 2012(metric tons)Average monthly quantity Nov 2011-Jul 2012(metric tons)Percent change from Historic to Current average quantity MEXICO Oil Country Goods-C&A 6,248 16,729-62%SOURCE:US Department of Commerce,Import Administration,SIMA Table last modified November 14,2012,with Licensing data collected through October 2012 and Final Census data compiled through September 2012.A notable change is defined here by a significant decrease in the current three month average quantity over the previous nine months average quantity;the program examines the largest importers within each product group.Steel mill categories are defined by 10-digit HTS codes.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 8 Production U.S.domestic capacity utilization has maintained steady gains over a historic dip.o In September 2012,the capacity utilization rate was estimated at 70.4%.o Though the capacity utilization rate has increased 72.6%from the eight year low in April 2009,it still remains under the historical averages.The September 2012 capacity utilization rate decreased from August,reversing the temporary utilization gain in August,and continuing the downward trend from recent months.The industry has not reported utilization rates below 71%since December 2010.According to data from the World Steel Association,U.S.steel production decreased by 6.8%to 7 million metric tons in September 2012 from 7.5 million metric tons in August 2012.This marks a 3%decrease from the September 2011 production level.Figure 7-U.S.Domestic Steel Capacity Utilization Global steel production decreased 0.1%to 123.6 million metric tons in September 2012 from 123.7 million metric tons in August 2012.o Global production has increased by 0.01%from one year ago.o Chinas September 2012 production level decreased by 1.3%to 58 million metric tons from 58.7 million metric tons in August 2012.o The European Union 27 remains the second largest producer behind China with a September 2012 production level of 14.1 million metric tons,a 15.7%increase from August 2012.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 9 Figure 8-Monthly World Crude Steel Production Figure 9-Monthly Crude Steel Production-Major Producers U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 10 Chinas share of total world steel production remained constant at 47%between August and September 2012,accounting for nearly half of monthly total world production,while the U.S.ranked fourth at 6%.Chinas share is larger than the combined production of the U.S.,the EU 27,Russia,and Japan,which historically were the largest producers of steel.Figure 10-Share of World Crude Steel Production Demand Apparent consumption(used to measure domestic demand)for steel,excluding semi-finished products,decreased 11.6%to 7.4 million metric tons in September 2012 from 8.4 million metric tons in August 2012.o September 2012 demand has decreased 2.9%from one year ago.o Demand in September 2012 was 79.9%higher than April 2009,when steel demand was at its lowest level in recent years.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 11 Figure 11-U.S.Apparent Consumption of Steel Mill Products Import penetration for steel mill products,excluding semi-finished products,increased to 24.5%in September 2012 from 22.1%in August 2012.Import penetration remains well below its high point of 35.6%in January 2009.Figure 12-Import Penetration for All Steel Mill Products U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 12 Trade Remedy Case Determinations October/November 2012 Informal tracking of anti-dumping and countervailing duty case initiations,investigations,and orders applicable to steel products.Trade Remedies undertaken by the U.S.Product Country Department of Commerce Finding Steel Wire Garment Hangers Taiwan Affirmative Final Antidumping Determination Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe India Affirmative Final Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Determinations Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe Oman Affirmative Final Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Determinations Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe United Arab Emirates Affirmative Final Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Determinations Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe Vietnam Affirmative Final Antidumping Duty Determination Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe Vietnam Negative Final Countervailing Duty Determination SOURCE:US Department of Commerce,Import Administration.Factsheets available at http:/ia.ita.doc.gov/ia-highlights-and-news.html.Industry Status The U.S.steel industry,as represented in the chart below,posted a net gain of$176 million in the 3rd Quarter of 2012.o According to publicly available figures,five companies reported quarterly net incomes,while AK Steel ended the quarter with a net loss,its fifth consecutive quarterly loss.o Of the six companies monitored,Nucor reported the highest quarterly net profit at$110.3 million.AK Steel reported a net loss of$60.9 million.o Since Q1 2009,the group of steel companies monitored in the below chart has collectively reported net income for only six out of fourteen quarters.The groups quarterly figures are significantly below performance levels from 2004 to 2008.o The net income chart includes AK Steel,Carpenter Technology,Commercial Metals Company,Nucor,Steel Dynamics,and US Steel.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 13 Figure 13-U.S.Steel Industry,Quarterly Net Income Most charted steel stocks closed October 2012 well below 2012 opening prices but above the months opening prices.o Indexed to January 3,2011,many steel stocks rebounded in late 2011 and early 2012 since the low point in October 2011,but most reversed these gains in the first half of 2012.Some steel stocks have rebounded since June 2012.Charted steel stock performance still remains below the S&P 500 trend line.o The steel stocks charts include the S&P 500,US Steel,Nucor,Steel Dynamics,AK Steel,and Mittal.U.S.Department of Commerce|International Trade Administration 14 Figure 14-Steel Stocks vs.S&P 500,1 Year Activity SIMA Team Contact Information Import Administration Office of Policy 14PthP&Constitution Ave.,NW,Suite 2837 Washington,DC 20230 Phone:(202)482-2105 Fax:(202)501-1377 Steel.Licensetrade.gov http:/ia.ita.doc.gov/steel/license/index.html ished 11/21/2012
