(12)Unit 6《信息管理与信息系统专业英语》DSS(精品).ppt

信息管理与信息系统专业英语信息管理与信息系统专业英语Unit6Decision Support Systems SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support SystemsIn this lesson,we cover the following area:Vocabulary Difficult and Emphasis Decision theory Decision making SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems词汇1.Decision maker/making/theory/support system2.Group DSS3.Mathematics(math)/management/operation research/statistics/psychology/philosophy/physics/chemistry/geometry/linear algebra/higher mathematics/discrete mathematics/macro-economic/micro-economic/economics/probability theory/geography/biology/history 4.Normative/prescriptive 5.Method/model/methodology SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems词汇6.Hypothesis7.Software package/software module/software model(p136)8.expert system9.Office automation system10.Algorithm(decision tree,support vector machine,association rule,clustering,classification,bayesian)SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems词汇11.Distributed computing12.Rational decision13.Cost-effective/cost-reduction 14.ACM SIGBDP conference (Association for Computing Machinery -Special Interest Group on Business Data Processing)15.AI(artificial intelligence)16.Model-driven DSS SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems词汇17.Information system design and optimization system18.Firmware/groupware/shareware19.Vantage point/starting point/end point20.Sort out 21.Computer-aided decision system 22.Paper/dissertation/thesis 23.Spreadsheet SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems词汇24.Relational database products25.Process duration26.Subroutine 27.Real estate industry 28.Trade association/association rule 29.Textbook knowledge(p139)30.Fuzzy logic31.Cognitive process SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)Today it is still possible to reconstruct the history of Decision Support Systems from first-hand accounts*and unpublished materials as well as published articles.Accounts=a written or spoken report description.对事物报道描述。当今，依据对决策支持系统的一手的报道和未发行及已发行的资料和文章的描述，仍能够勾现出其历史全貌。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)This hypertext paper is a starting point in documenting the origins of the various technology threads*that are converging(集中集中)at the start of the 21st Century to provide integrated support for managers working alone,in teams and in organization hierarchies to manage organizations and make more rational decisions.(p134)SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)A DSS is an interactive,computer-based information system that provides a flexible tool for analysis and helps managers focus on the future（p134）一个决策支持系统是一个互动的，基于计算机的信息系统，它提供了灵活的分析工具来帮助决策者针对未来进行决策。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)An Expert System(ES),or knowledge system,is a set of interactive computer programs that helps users solve problems that would otherwise require the assistance of a human expert,which costs more。（p139）(从句译主句)一个专家系统或者知识系统是一整套的计算机互动程序，它能帮助用户解决了需要花费更多的开支来寻求专家才能解决的问题。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)Decision theory is an interdisciplinary(跨学科)area of study,related to and of interest to practitioners in mathematics,statistics(统计学),economics,philosophy(哲学),management and psychology(心理学).(p143)决策理论是一个跨数学、统计学、经济学、哲学、管理学、和心理学学科间的研究领域，同时也是有兴趣于在这些跨学科间进行开拓的开拓者的研究领域。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Difficult and Emphasis(-Difficult and Emphasis(难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点难点与重点)Most of decision theory is normative(标准化的)or prescriptive(规范性的),i.e.it is concerned with identifying the best decision to take,assuming an ideal decision maker who is fully informed,able to compute with perfect accuracy,and fully rational.（p148 翻译有问题）大部分决策理论是标准化或者规范化的，即就是：它是假设在知道一切情况的前提下，理想的决策者是能够识别和采取完全合理，相当精确的最佳决策的一门理论。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryIt is concerned with how real decision-makers make decisions,and with how optimal decisions can be reached.现实当中决策者如何进行决策，和决策者如何获得最佳决策的过程是决策理论所关住的重点。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theory1Normative and descriptive decision theory The practical application of this prescriptive approach(how people should make decisions)is called decision analysis,and aimed at finding tools,methodologies(方法论)and software to help people make better decisions.The most systematic and comprehensive software tools developed in this way are called decision support systems.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theory1Normative and descriptive decision theory Since it is obvious that people do not typically(向来)behave in optimal ways,there is also a related area of study,which is a positive or descriptive discipline(良好或者指导性规范),attempting to describe what people will actually do.很显然，由于人们的行为方式向来是不规范的，因此存在一个与行为相关的，尝试阐述人们现实中将要做些什么的良好或者指导性规范的研究领域。Since the normative,optimal decision often creates hypotheses(假说)for testing against(依据)actual behaviour,the two fields are closely linked.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theory1Normative and descriptive decision theory Furthermore（also=而且）it is possible to relax(放宽)the assumptions of perfect information,rationality(合理性)and so forth(and so on)in various ways,and produce a series of different prescriptions or predictions about behaviour,allowing for further tests of the kind of decision-making that occurs in practice.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theory2What kinds of decisions need a theory?Decision theory is only relevant in decisions that are difficult for some reason.A few types of decision have attracted particular attention:riskless choice between incommensurable commodities(没有可比性的商品)choice under uncertainty Inter-temporal choice(跨期选择)social decision SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice between incommensurable commodities This area is concerned with the decision whether to have,say,one ton of guns and 3 tons of butter,or 2 tons of guns and 1 ton of butter.这个领域是关注像枪炮换黄油这样不可比商品的决策。This is the classic subject of study of microeconomics and is rarely considered under the heading of decision theory,but such choices are often in fact part of the issues that are considered within decision theory。这是微观经济学领域中经典研究课题，并罕见成为决策理论研究的热点。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice under uncertainty This area represents the heartland(中心地区=核心部分)of decision theory.Daniel Bernoulli stated that,when faced with a number of actions each of which could give rise to more than one possible outcome with different probabilities,the rational procedure is to identify all possible outcomes,determine their values(positive or negative)and the probabilities that they will result from each course(过程)of action,and multiply the two to give an expected value.The action to be chosen should be the one that gives rise to the highest total expected value.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice under uncertainty In reality people do not behave like this,at least if“value”is taken to mean“objective financial value”(客观价值)-otherwise no-one would either gamble or take out（destroy）insurance.Within behavioural decision theory(行为决策理论),this has led to various dilutions(稀释)of the expected value theory;for example,objective probabilities can be replaced by subjective estimates,and objective values by subjective utilities,giving rise to the subjective expected utility(主观期望效用)or SEU theory,developed by Savage.The prospect theory(前景理论)of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky is another alternative to the expected value model within behavioural decision theory SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice under uncertainty A highly controversial(争议)issue is whether one can replace the use of probability in decision theory by other alternatives.The proponents(支持者)of fuzzy logic,possibility theory and Dempster-Shafer theory maintain(坚决主张/assert)that probability is only one of many alternatives and point to many examples where non-standard alternatives have been implemented with apparent success.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice under uncertaintya)the work of Richard Threlkeld Cox for justification of the probability axioms,b)the Dutch book（荷兰赌）paradoxes(自相矛盾，悖论)of Bruno de Finetti(意大利统计和概率学专家)as illustrative*of the theoretical difficulties that can arise from(appear,happen)departures from(背离)the probability axioms.(Bruno 诠释了背离概率原理的荷兰赌的理论是悖论）。SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryChoice under uncertaintyc)the complete class theorems(定理)which show that all admissible（acceptable）decision rules are equivalent to a Bayesian decision rule with some prior distribution(先验概率分布)(possibly improper(not suitable)and some utility function.d)Thus,for any decision rule generated by non-probabilistic methods either there is an equivalent rule derivable(可引出的)by Bayesian means,or there is a rule derivable by Bayesian means which is never worse and(at least)sometimes better.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryInter-temporal choice This area is concerned with the kind of choice where different actions lead to outcomes that are realized at different points in time.If I receive a windfall(横财)of several thousand dollars,I could spend it on an expensive holiday,giving me immediate pleasure,or I could invest it in a pension scheme,giving me an income at some time in the future.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryInter-temporal choice What is the optimal thing to do?The answer depends partly on factors such as the expected rates of interest and inflation,my life expectancy*(hope),and my confidence in the pensions industry.However even with all those factors taken into account,human behaviour again deviates(偏离)greatly from the predictions of prescriptive decision theory,leading to alternative models in which,for example,objective interest rates are replaced by subjective discount rates SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theorySocial decisions Some decisions are difficult because of the need to take into account how other people in the situation will respond to the decision that is taken.The analysis of such social decisions is the business of game theory,and is not normally considered part of decision theory,though it is closely related.(student)SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision theory-Decision theoryComplex decisions Other areas of decision theory are concerned with decisions that are difficult simply because of their complexity,or the complexity of the organization that has to take them.In such cases the issue is not the deviation between real and optimal behaviour,but the difficulty of determining the optimal behaviour in the first place(首要，首位).Reference:http:/ SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Any Questions or Comments?If you have any comments and worth suggestions,please do not hesitate to contact with me by mobile message or email.Dont forget your learning Exercises!Next session,we will mention the information technology.(page 165-)Bye-Bye SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action(行动的过程)from among multiple alternatives.Common examples include shopping,deciding what to eat,and deciding who or what to vote for in an election or referendum(公民投票).Decision making is said to be a psychological construct(心里学的构建体).This means that although we can never“see”a decision,we can infer*(deduce 推断)from observable(看得见的)behaviour that a decision has been made.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making Therefore we conclude that a psychological event that we call“decision making”has occurred.It is a construction that imputes(归因于)commitment(承诺的义务)to action.That is,based on observable actions,we assume that people have made a commitment to effect the action.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making Decision making is an important part of many professions*,where specialists apply their expertise*in a given area to making informed decisions.For example,medical decision making often involves making a diagnosis and selecting an appropriate treatment.Due to the large number of considerations involved in many decisions,decision support systems have been developed to assist decision makers in considering the implications of various courses of action.They can help reduce the risk of errors.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making1Decision making style According to Myers(1962),a persons decision making process depends to a significant degree on their cognitive style.Starting from the work of Carl Jung,Myers developed a set of four bi-polar(两极)dimensions.The terminal points on these dimensions are:thinking and feeling;extraversion(外向)and introversion(内向);judgement(判断)and perception(感觉);and sensing(感应)and intuition(直觉).SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making1Decision making style He claimed that a persons decision making style is based largely(mainly)on how they score on these four dimensions.For example,someone that scored near the thinking,extroversion,sensing,and judgement ends of the dimensions would tend to have a logical,analytical,objective,critical(判断谨慎的),and empirical(经验的)decision making style.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making2Cognitive and personal biases in decision making It is generally agreed that biases(偏见)can creep into our decision making processes,calling into question(对.有异议)the correctness of a decision.Below is a list of some of the more common cognitive biases.Selective search for evidence-We tend to*be willing to gather facts that support certain conclusions but disregard other facts that support different conclusions.SQL Server 数据库管理与开发安徽财贸职业学院 计算机系Decision Support Systems-Decision making-Decision making2Cognitive and personal biases in decision making Premature(未成熟)termination*of search for evidence-We tend to accept the first alternative that looks like it might work.Conservatism(保守主义)and inertia(惰性)-Unwillingness to change thought pat