管理学原理robbins_PPT06.ppt

8 8thth edition editionSteven P.RobbinsSteven P.RobbinsMary CoulterMary CoulterPowerPoint Presentation by Charlie CookPowerPoint Presentation by Charlie CookCopyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Decision-Making ProcessDefine decision and decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.The Manager as Decision MakerDiscuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Describe the concepts of bounded rationality,satisficing,and escalation of commitment.Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making.Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.2Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd)Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Manager as Decision Maker(contd)Contrast the three decision-making conditions.Explain maximax,maximin,and minimax decision choice approaches.Describe the four decision making styles.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit.Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases.Explain the managerial decision-making model.3Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd)Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.Decision Making for Todays WorldExplain how managers can make effective decisions in todays world.List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process.Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.4Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision MakingDecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making ProcessIdentifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.5Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.1Exhibit 6.1The Decision-Making Process6Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 1:Identifying the ProblemProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.7Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 2:Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the problem.Costs that will be incurred(investments required)Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm)Step 3:Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.8Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.2Exhibit 6.2Criteria and Weights for Franchise DecisionCriterion WeightStart-up costs 10Franchisor support 8Financial qualifications 6Open geographical locations 4Franchisor history 39Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 4:Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.Step 5:Analyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.10Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 6:Selecting an AlternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7:Implementing the DecisionPutting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.11Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.3Exhibit 6.3Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision CriteriaStart-Up Franchise Financial Open FranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations HistoryFranchiseCurves For Women 10 3 10 8 5Quiznos Sandwiches 8 7 7 8 7Jani-King 8 5 7 10 10Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service 8 7 7 8 7GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 7 8 7 8 7Radio Shack 8 3 6 10 8Chem-Dry Carpet Cleaning 10 7 8 6 7McDonalds 4 10 4 8 1012Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.4Exhibit 6.4Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives Against Weighted CriteriaStart-Up Franchise Financial Open FranchisorCosts Support Qualifications Locations History TotalFranchiseCurves For Women100 24 60 32 15 231Quiznos Sandwiches80 56 42 32 21 231Jani-King80 40 42 40 30 232Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service80 56 42 32 21 231GNC Vitamins andNutritional Supplements 70 64 42 32 21 229Radio Shack 80 24 36 40 24 204Chem-Dry Carpet 100 56 48 24 21 249McDonalds 40 80 24 32 30 20613Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Step 8:Evaluating the Decisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?14Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Making DecisionsRationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:vAre perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.vHave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.vHave a clear and specific goalvWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.15Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.6Exhibit 6.6Assumptions of Rationality16Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Making Decisions(contd)Bounded RationalityManagers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:vWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesvWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.17Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Influences on Decision MakingEscalation of CommitmentIncreasing or continuing a commitment to previous decision despite mounting evidence that the decision may have been wrong.The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision makingvMaking decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgement.18Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.7Exhibit 6.7What is Intuition?Source:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller.“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making.”Academy of Management Executive.October 1999.pp.9199.19Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Problems and DecisionsStructured ProblemsInvolve goals that clear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Programmed DecisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.20Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Types of Programmed DecisionsA PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.A ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.A RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do in carrying out the steps involved in a procedure.21Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Policy,Procedure,and Rule ExamplePolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.22Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Problems and Decisions(contd)Unstructured ProblemsProblems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed DecisionsDecisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.23Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.8Exhibit 6.8Types of Problems,Types of Decisions,and Level in the Organization24Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making ConditionsCertaintyA ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.RiskA situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.25Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making ConditionsUncertaintyLimited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,hunches,and“gut feelings”.vMaximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffvMaximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffvMinimax:the managers choice to minimize his maximum regret.26Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.9Exhibit 6.9Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski LiftExpectedExpected Probability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy snowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5=362,500Light snowfall 350,0000.2=70,000$687,50027Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.10Exhibit 6.10Payoff Matrix28Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.11Exhibit 6.11Regret Matrix29Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making StylesDimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinkingvRational,orderly,and consistentvIntuitive,creative,and uniqueTolerance for ambiguityvLow tolerance:require consistency and ordervHigh tolerance:multiple thoughts simultaneously30Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making Styles(contd)Types of Decision MakersDirectivevUse minimal information and consider few alternatives.AnalyticvMake careful decisions in unique situations.ConceptualvMaintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making long-term decisions.BehavioralvAvoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.31Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.12Exhibit 6.12Decision-Making StylesSource:S.P.Robbins and D.A.DeCenzo,Supervision Today.2nd ed.(Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,1998).p.166.32Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.13Exhibit 6.13Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases33Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristicsUsing“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.Overconfidence BiasHolding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.Immediate Gratification BiasChoosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.34Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)Anchoring EffectFixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.Selective PerceptionSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.Confirmation BiasSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.35Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)Framing BiasSelecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability BiasLosing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation BiasDrawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness BiasCreating unfounded meaning out of random events.36Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd)Sunk Costs ErrorsForgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving BiasTaking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.Hindsight BiasMistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).37Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Decision Making for Todays WorldGuidelines for making effective decisions:Know when its time to call it quits.Practice the five“whys”.Be an effective decision maker.Habits of highly reliable organizations(HROs)Are not tricked by their success.Defer to the experts on the front line.Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.Embrace complexity.Anticipate,but also anticipate their limits.38Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making ProcessIt focuses on what is important.It is logical and consistent.It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.It is straightforward,reliable,easy to use,and flexible.39Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.Exhibit 6.14Exhibit 6.14Overview of Managerial Decision Making40Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall,Inc.All rights reserved.