量增价涨.docx
量增价涨一般量增价涨的走势，通常会发生在多头初升段、多头整理结束、多头末升段、空头盘整反弹与空头末期的盘底等五种行情结构中。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);"> (1)多头初升段：当股价完成底部，从空头行情转为多头走势时，通常定位此为初升段行情，若股价出现上涨信号，宜伺机切入做多，此时出现的新高量，往往会有新高价，可以期待。ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">在图l-2中，友达股价在2003年5月打出一个底部形态后上涨，故定位为初升段行情，于标示A的量价关系属于“量增价涨，当时出现的新高量，通常还会有新高价可以期待，这是因为当时股价才刚上涨，投资人认为风险有限，追价意愿会较强，因此属于良性换手的现象之一。ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);"> (2)多头整理结束：当股价已经从底部翻扬上涨一大段之后，代表股价属于回升行情，若利用黄金螺旋测量估计股价处于相对高位，应该注意股价容易针对上涨波段做拉回修正的行情，当股价修正结束后呈现再度上涨的多头走势，仍会伴随量增价涨的现象，只是此时如果出现创新高价的走势，不一定会跟随着出现新高量。（批注：图中45不一定量增价涨，如果出现量价背离，要小心已是头部出货期.ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">请看图1-3，台泥股价从底部翻扬上涨后，利用黄金螺旋测量目标区的2.618倍幅被穿价满足之后，即进入回调修正的整理走势，在标示A的区域中，通常定位是属于“中段整理，整理过程中，观察量价关系或是其他技术面的种种变化，只要没有对多头走势产生破坏，股价修正结束后自然会呈现再度上涨的多头走势。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">在标示B穿越4.236倍幅，同时再出现新高量，因此必须注意主力是否有出货行为。因为4.236倍幅视为满足点之一，因此标示B后出现短线卖出信号，宜将手中多单出脱，小图中提供了后续走势的图形，是盘了一个头部之后，股价反转下跌，就可以定位标示B的量增价涨并非主力攻击盘，而是主力出货盘。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);"> (3)多头末升段：当股价整理后续涨，在相对满足区出现成交量暴增，接着成交量迅速萎缩，价格却略为创高后便迅速拉回，暗示未来有机会将要进入强势修正的征兆。因为股价在高位或上涨已久的背景下，正是主力出货的最佳良机，所以量价关系会出现多头最后喷出现象，呈现“多头力竭。因此在高位区，且疑为多头末升段的结构时，只要股价上涨而成交量异常大增，不论是否留有上影线，都暗示大户可能趁高出货。ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">请看图1-4，台泥股价在2004年2月中旬，于标示A出现量增价涨的走势，当时已经进入相对高位的满足区，成交量较前一日暴增许多，所以有“量大好出货的嫌疑，当日虽为中红蜡烛线，但是隔一日却无法再创新高，多头有怯战的现象，股价也随之拉回进入盘头的走势。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">后续的成交量也无法为继，并在标示B呈现“量能退潮，暴大量后再出现量能退潮更增主力已于高位出货的疑虑，因此标示A可以定位为“多头力竭的中红棒线，也是主力群趁机拉高出货的良机。 (4)空头盘整反弹：当股价趋势转空进行初跌段结束之后，会接着进行反弹的短期多头行情，反弹过程中，也会出现量增价涨的走势，但是因为上位解套及低位短线买多的获利卖压会在反弹末端出笼，往往会出现短期大量，使走势呈现止涨，并恢复原始下跌走势，根据经验法则，这种反弹行情约为1/2的幅度。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">接着请看图1-5，台泥股价在2003年1月时盘一个头部下杀，成交量出现量能退潮，股价也顺势拉回。当完成头部的下跌，我们可以定位已经进入中期空头波动，当下跌到3月初时开始出现反弹走势，根据股价惯性，这是初跌段结束后的反弹，正常而言，会出现量增价涨的走势，且反弹幅度为前波下跌的1/2幅度。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">反弹走势定位成短期多头行情，我们可以在标示A、B看见正好反弹到大约1/2的位置，同时呈现暴量止涨的现象，这里就是所谓上位解套及低位短线抢短多获利的卖压，只有认识不清的投资人会在此处不考虑风险而介入，这里也往往是下跌中继站，未来跌幅还会相当可观。标示C的信号暗示反弹已经结束，因为它跌破连续的“镊底组合。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">(5)空头末期：当股价处于空头下跌末期，股价进入打底过程，也会出现量增价涨走势，但是此处走势容易与空头中的反弹行情混淆。为了分辨其中差异，实际操作者往往会利用潮汐理论与波浪理论的特性，搭配测量系统预估走势最有可能的方向。ALIGN="center"STYLE="text-align:left;margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">图1-6是奇美电股价已经拉回相当幅度，走势有机会进入最后下跌波动中，当股价进入打底过程，正常会出现量增价涨的走势，在标示A与标示B就出现这样的现象，且为形态学中的W底形态，因此可以在底部完成时积极介入做多。ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);">ALIGN="center"STYLE="margin:0px0px5px;padding:0px;border:0px;list-style:none;word-wrap:normal;word-break:normal;color:rgb(50,62,50);font-family:'MicrosoftYaHei','Helveticaneue',simsun;background-color:rgb(127,163,206);" 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