临汾市水资源承载力研究,水利工程硕士论文.docx

临汾市水资源承载力研究,水利工程硕士论文摘 要 在我们国家经济社会快速发展的背景下，全社会对水资源的需求量显着提高，对水资源系统的稳定性和安全性构成了挑战。而水资源承载力作为衡量区域经济社会和水资源系统之间协调发展程度的指标，对其进行合理评价可为经济社会发展规划制定、水资源可持续利用、良好生态环境维护奠定基础，为贯彻绿色发展理念和人民幸福生活提供保障。 本文以2021年为现在状况年，在综合考虑临汾市整体和各县市、区水资源状况和经济社会发展水平的基础上，以临汾市各县市、区为评价单元，从经济社会、水资源和生态环境3个方面出发，构建了14个指标的水资源承载力评价体系；应用模糊综合评价法和集对分析法，按水资源承载力弱、较弱、中等、较高、高等5个等级，对临汾市水资源承载力进行了评价。 评价结果为：2021年临汾市水资源承载力总体为较弱水平。 1临汾市东部山区水资源承载力处于中等水平，但各县水资源承载力水平相差较大。华而不实安泽县的水资源承载力属于较高水平，水资源承载力综合评分值达0.62；古县水资源承载力综合评分值为0.54，属于中等水平；但同属于东部山区浮山县的水资源承载力综合评分值仅为0.22，属于较弱水平。 2临汾市中部平川区水资源承载力属于较弱水平。华而不实霍州市和翼城县水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.40和0.41，属于中等水平；尧都区、侯马市、曲沃县、襄汾县和洪洞县的水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.35、0.34、0.25、0.24和0.31，均处于较弱水平。 3临汾市西部山区水资源承载力属于中等水平。华而不实水资源承载力到达中等水平的县有吉县、乡宁县和蒲县，其水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.45、0.49和0.45；水资源承载力处于较弱水平的县为大宁、永和、隰县和汾西县，水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.33、0.32、0.35和0.33。 针对各县市、区水资源承载力现在状况，提出相应的水资源承载力提高方式方法和改良措施，通过各项工程措施及非工程措施，提高临汾市总体的水资源承载力。本研究能够为临汾市产业构造调整和政策制定提供参考，具有一定的现实意义，并丰富了临汾地区水资源承载力相关研究。 本文关键词语 ： 水资源承载力；临汾市；组合权重；模糊综合评价；集对分析法 。 Abstract In the context of rapid economic and social development in China, the demand forwater resources in the whole society has increased significantly, which poses achallenge to the stability and security of water resources system. As an indicator tomeasure the coordinated development degree between regional economic society andwater resources system, water resources carrying capacity can lay a foundation for theformulation of economic and social development planning, the sustainable utilizationof water resources and the maintenance of a good ecological environment, and providea guarantee for the implementation of the concept of green development and people shappy life. This paper takes data from 2021, and in consideration of water resources conditionand the level of economic and social development of Linfen city and its various counties(city, area), on the basis of in linfen city in various counties (city, area) as evaluationunit, from the economic society, water resources and ecological environment threeaspects, the index evaluation system for the water resources carrying capacity with 14criteria; Based on the Fuzzy Comprehensives Appraisal and Set Pair Analysis, the waterresources carrying capacity of Linfen City is evaluated according to five grades: weak,semi-weak, medium, semi-high and high. The evaluation results show that the overall water resources carrying capacity ofLinfen City in 2021 is at semi-weak level. (1) The carrying capacity of water resources in the eastern mountainous area ofLinfen City is at a medium level, but the level of carrying capacity of water resourcesin different counties varies greatly. Among them, the water resources carrying capacityof Anze County is at a semi-high level, and the comprehensive score of water resourcescarrying capacity is 0.62. The comprehensive scoring value of water resources carryingcapacity in Guxian County is 0.54, which belongs to the medium level. However, thecomprehensive scoring value of water resources carrying capacity in Fushan County inthe eastern mountainous area is only 0.22, which belongs to the semi-weak level. (2) The water resource carrying capacity of Pingchuan District in the middle ofLinfen City is relatively weak. The comprehensive scoring value of water resourcescarrying capacity in Huozhou City and Yicheng County was 0.40 and 0.41, respectively,which belonged to the medium level. The comprehensive scoring values of water resources carrying capacity in Yaodu District, Houma City, Quwo County, XiangfenCounty and Hongdong County were 0.35, 0.34, 0.25, 0.24 and 0.31, respectively, whichwere all at a weak level. (3) The carrying capacity of water resources in the western mountainous area ofLinfen City belongs to the middle level. Among them, Ji County, Xiangning Countyand Puxian County reached the middle level of water resources carrying capacity, andtheir comprehensive scoring values were 0.45, 0.49 and 0.45, respectively. The countieswith relatively weak water resources carrying capacity were Daning, Yonghe, Xi andFenxi, with the comprehensive scoring values of 0.33, 0.32, 0.35 and 0.33, respectively. According to the present situation of the water resources carrying capacity of eachcounty (city, district), this paper puts forward the corresponding methods and measuresto improve the water resources carrying capacity, and improves the overall waterresources carrying capacity of Linfen city through various engineering measures andnon-engineering measures. This study can provide reference for industrial structureadjustment and policy formulation of Linfen City, and has certain practical significance,and enriches the related research on water resource carrying capacity in Linfen area. Keywords : water resource carrying capacity; Linfen City; combined weight; FuzzyComprehensives Appraisal; Set Pair Analysis 。 文章为硕士论文，如需全文请点击底部下载全文链接】 1.2、国内外研究进展 1.2.1、 国外研究进展 1.2.2 、国内研究进展 1.2.3 、主要研究方式方法 1.2.4、研究存在的问题. 1.3、研究方式方法与技术道路图. 1.3.1、 研究方式方法 1.3.2 、技术道路图 第2章 研究区大概情况 2.1 、自然地理与经济社会 2.1.1、地理位置与行政区划 2.1.2 、水文气象条件 2.1.3、 河流水系 2.1.4、经济社会 2.2、水资源大概情况 2.2.1、水资源总量. 2.2.2、水资源开发利用情况 2.3、水环境大概情况 2.3.1、地表水环境质量 2.3.2、地下水环境质量 第3章 水资源承载力评价指标体系. 3.1、水资源承载力评价指标体系构建 3.1.1、评价指标选取原则 3.1.2、影响因素分析与指标选取. 3.1.3、水资源承载力评价指标体系确定 3.2、指标权重确定 3.2.1、层次分析法. 3.2.2、熵权法. 3.2.3、组合权重确定 3.2.4、指标赋权计算 3.3、评价指标分级标准 第4章 水资源承载力评价模型. 4.1、模糊综合评价模型. 4.2、集对分析模型 4.2.1、集对分析法原理. 4.2.2、评价体系构建 第5章 临汾市水资源承载力评价. 5.1 、基于模糊综合评价的水资源承载力评价. 5.2、基于集对分析法的水资源承载力评价. 第6章 水资源承载力评价结果比照分析. 6.1、水资源承载力评价结果比照 6.2、水资源承载力评价结果分析. 6.2.1、 水资源承载力总体评价及分析. 6.2.2、水资源承载力子系统评价及分析. 6.3、水资源承载力提高措施 第7章 结论 在现有研究的基础上，本文构建了适用于临汾市的水资源承载力评价指标体系，并通过层次分析法和熵权法对各指标进行赋权，在赋权经过中通过提高水资源子系统和生态环境子系统的权重，以具体表现出本次水资源承载力评价对生态环境的重视。并采用模糊综合评价法和集对分析法构建水资源承载力评价模型，对临汾市各县市、区进行水资源承载力评价，同时将模糊综合评价中综合评分值的概念引入到集对分析法对联络度系数赋值的经过中，并对两种方式方法的评价结果进行量化比照，以研究评价方式方法的可靠性与合理性。本文获得的主要结论如下： 1根据水资源承载力评价指标选取原则，选取适用于以县级行政区划为研究对象的水资源承载力评价指标，构建了以临汾市水资源承载力评价为目的层，经济社会、水资源和生态环境为准则层，14个评价指标为指标层的水资源承载力评级指标体系。 2为了克制模糊综合评价中信息缺失和主观随意性问题，选取模糊综合评价与集对分析法相结合的评价方式方法对临汾市各县市的水资源承载力进行评价，结果表示清楚临汾市总体上水资源承载力处于较弱水平，而临汾市各县市、区的水资源承载力与其地理位置相关，临汾市位于东部和西部山区的县市、区水资源承载力高于临汾市中部地区的县市、区，华而不实以位于山西省东部安泽县的水资源承载力最高，水资源承载力综合评分值达0.62，属于较高水平，而位于中部地区的襄汾县和曲沃县水资源承载力最低，水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.24和0.25，属于较弱水平。 3为了对两种评价方式方法进行量化比照，引入组内相关系数对两种评价结果的一致性进行检验，其结果表示清楚模糊综合评价法和集对分析法的评价结果具有满意的一致性，以为这两种方式方法的评价结果是可靠和合理的。同时对模糊综合评价法与集对分析法结合应用方式做出了尝试性探寻求索。 4本文通过对临汾市开展以县为基本单位的水资源承载力评价，为临汾市产业构造调整和政策制定提供了借鉴，具有一定的现实意义，并为华北地区水资源承载力相关研究提供参考。 以下为参考文献. 1 金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价J水科学进展, 2021, 29(1): 31-39. 2 Guan X, Wei H, Lu S, et al. 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