《新能源专业英语》.ppt

Technical English of New and Renewable EnergyZongming ZhengSchool of Renewable Energy,NCEPUContent1.International Energy outlook2.Global Renewable Energy Status3.China Renewable Energy StatusReferences:1 International Energy outlook1.World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook2.Liquid Fuels3.Natural Gas4.Coal5.Electricity6.Transportation Sector Energy Consumption7.Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide EmissionsWorld Energy Demand and Economic Outlook Total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 50 percent50 percent from 2005 to 2030.The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECDnon-OECD economies.China and India-China and India-thethe fastest growing non-OECD economies-will be key contributors to world energy consumption in the future.1980 8%2005 18%2030 25%USA 22%in 2005 to about 17%in 2030 World Marketed Energy Consumption 1980-2030OECD vs non-OECD Energy consumption in other non-OECD regions also is expected to grow strongly from 2005 to 2030,with increases of around 60 percent projected for the Middle East,Africa,and Central and South America.World Energy Consumption by Source1.liquid fuels are the worlds slowest growing source of energy;2.Renewable energy and coal are the fastest growing energy sources,with consumption increasing by 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent,respectively;3.Chinas coal consumption increased by 17 percent per year on average from 2002 to 2005.4.Natural gas remains an important fuel for electricity generation worldwide;5.Electricity generation from nuclear power increases from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 3.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3.8 trillion kilowatthours;6.Plant safety,radioactive waste disposal,and the proliferation of nuclear weapons,6.Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid-to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in non-OECDAsia and Central and South America;7.Some areas of China and India also rely heavily on woodfuel,woodwaste,and charcoal for cooking.In China,about 55 percent of the rural population uses biomass for cooking,as does 87 percent of the rural population in India.8.Most of the increase in OECD renewable energy consumption is expected to come from nonhydroelectric resources,such as wind,solar,geothermal,municipal solid waste,and biomass.World Economic OutlookThe worlds real GDP growth on a purchasing power parity basis is projected to average 4.0 percent4.0 percent annuallynPopulation growthnLabor force participation ratesnCapital accumulation,nProductivity improvements.2 Liquid Fuels World use of liquids grows from 83.6 million barrels oil equivalent per day5 in 2005 to 95.6 million barrels per day in 2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030.Much of the increase in total liquids consumption is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia and the Middle East.World Liquid Fuels Production,2005-2030 China and India account for much of the growth in liquids demand,and together they account for 11.5 million barrels per day(74 percent)11.5 million barrels per day(74 percent)of the regional increment in liquids use.Middle-east:1 High birth rate 2 Subsidy 3 High income per capitaOil prices In the long term,four factors determine the price of oil:1.growth in world liquids demand,2.high production costs for accessible non-OPEC conventional liquids resources,3.OPEC investment and production behavior,4.and the costand availability of unconventional liquids supply.World Liquids Production World liquids production increases by 28 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2030 to meet projected growth in demand.About 47 percent of the total world increase in liquids supplies is expected to come from OPEC member countries.Thus,in 2030,OPEC production is projected to total 49 million barrels per day and non-OPEC production 63 million barrels per day.Caspian area(Kazakhstan)and South America(Brazil)NON-OPEC OPECs total liquids production increases at a 1.3-percent average annual rate from 2005 to 2030.The most rapid growth in OPEC production is projected for Qatar.Oil Reserves and ResourcesAs of January 1,2008,proved world oil reserves,as reported by the Oil&Gas Journal,were estimated at 1,332 billion barrels.The 56 percent of the worlds proved oil reserves are located in the Middle East.Among the top 20 reserve holders in 2008,11 are OPEC member countries that,Together,account for 69 percent of the worlds total reserves.3 Natural Gas Worldwide,total natural gas consumption increases from 104 trillion104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion158 trillion cubic feet in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case.Natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows more than twice as fast as consumption in the OECD countries,with 2.3-percent average annual growth from 2005 to 2030 for non-OECD countries,compared with an average of 1.0 percent1.0 percent for the OECD countries.North AmericaEUNON-OECDSupplyReserves and Resources Almost three-quarters of the worlds natural gas reserves are located in the Middle East and Eurasia.Russia,Iran,and Qatar together accounted for about 57 percent of the worlds natural gas reserves as of January 1,20084 Coal World coal consumption increases by 65 percent over the projection period,from 122.5 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202.2 quadrillion Btu in 2030.In 2005,coal accounted for 27 percent of world energy consumption.Of the coal produced worldwide in 2005,63 percent was shipped to electricity producers,34 percent to industrial consumers,and most of the remaining 3 percent went to coal consumers in the residential and commercial sectors.In 2005,Australia was the worlds leading coal exporter,supplying 6.1 quadrillion Btu of coal to the international market,while Japan and South Korea were the worlds leading importers,receiving 4.5 and 1.9 quadrillion Btu of coal,respectively.More than one-half(53 percent)of Chinas coal use in 2005 was in the non-electricity sectors,primarily in the industrial sector.China was the worlds leading producer of both steel and pig iron in 2005.World Coal Production China,Australia,the United States,and India dominate the overall trends for the OECD and non-OECD,accounting for 99 percent of the increase in net production for all the OECD countries and 82 percent of the increase for the non-OECD countries.World Coal Reserves Total recoverable reserves of coal around the world are estimated at 930 billion tons.Although coal deposits are widely distributed,76 percent of the worlds recoverable reserves are located in five countries:the United States(28 percent),Russia(19 percent),China(14 percent),Australia(9 percent)and India(7 percent).5 Electricity World net electricity generation nearly doubles in the reference case,from 17.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 24.4 trillion kilowatthours in 2015 and 33.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2030.Nuclear Energy Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to increase from about 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 3.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030,China is trying to diversify its sources of electricity,and increasing nuclear power capacity is seen as a strategy to achieve that goal.Unlike most of the OECD nations,China will be able to expand its nuclear program largely without political deterrents.At present,China has 11 commercial nuclear power reactors in operation,6 of which have been brought on line since 2002.Another 6 plants are currently under construction,and several more are in various stages of planning.The Chinese government is also in the process of awarding billions of dollars in contracts to build additional nuclear plants.Frances AREVA,Russias AtomStroyExport,and U.S.-based Westinghouse all have won bids.In the worlds largest nuclear power deal to date,China will pay$11.9 billion to AREVA to build two nuclear reactors.China also has a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects under construction,including the 18,200-megawatt Three Gorges Dam project slated for completion at the end of 2008.The China Yangtze River Three Gorges Project Development Corporation already has announced it plans to increase its total installed capacity to 22,400 megawatts.In addition,work continues on the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River(scheduled for completion in 2020 as part of a 14-facility hydropower development plan)and the countrys third-largest hydroelectric facility,the 6,300 megawatt Longtan project on the Hongshui River6 Transportation Sector Energy Consumption The transportation share of total liquids consumption increases from 52 percent in 2005 to 58 percent in 2030.Much of the growth in transportation energy use is projected for the non-OECD nations,where many rapidly expanding economies are expected to see strong growth in energy consumption as transportation systems are modernized and rising standards of living increase the demand for personal motor vehicle ownership.Both China and India have become major vehicle manufacturers.In 2006,China produced nearly 7.2 million motor vehicles,the third-highest production level in the world after Japan and the United States and more than one-tenth of the worlds total production.In 2007,motor vehicle production in China grew by another 22 percent,to 8.9 million vehicles.Within the next several years,Chinas production of motor vehicles may reach 10 million vehicles.7 Carbon Dioxide Emissions The average annual increase in non-OECD emissions from 2005 to 2030(2.5 percent)is five times the increase projected for the OECD countries(0.5 percent).In 2030,non-OECD emissions,projected at 26.8 billion metric tons,exceed the projection for OECD emissions by 72 percent.In pre-industrial times,the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per million(ppm).The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at present is about 380 ppm,and according to the IEO2008 reference case projections,by 2030 it would be about 450450 ppm.2 Global Renewable Energy Status In 2007,more than$100 billion was invested in new renewable energy capacity,manufacturing plants,and research and developmenta true global milestone.Biomass and geothermal energy are commonly employed for both power and heating,with recent increases in a number of countries,including uses for district heating.More than 2 million groundsource heat pumps are used in 30 countries for building heating and cooling.Production of biofuels(ethanol and biodiesel)exceeded an estimated 53 billion liters in 2007,up 43 percent from 2005.Ethanol production in 2007 represented about 4 percent of the 1,300 billion liters of gasoline consumed globally.Annual biodiesel production increased by more than 50 percent in 2006.Renewable energy,especially small hydropower,biomass,and solar PV,provides electricity,heat,motive power,and water pumping for tens of millions of people in rural areas of developing countries,serving agriculture,small industry,homes,schools,and community needs.Twenty-five million households cook and light their homes with biogas,and 2.5 million households use solar lighting systems.Developing countries as a group have more than 40 percent of existing renewable power capacity,more than 70 percent of existing solar hot water capacity,and 45 percent of biofuels production.Global overviewINVESTMENT FLOWS An estimated$71 billion was invested in new renewable energy capacity worldwide in 2007,up from$55 billion in 2006 and$40 billion in 2005.3 China Renewable Energy StatusNew energy account for 20%in energy mix in 2004.Biomass 0.25 billion ton standard coalHydroelectricity 0.1 billion kilowattSolar,wind and other new energy 25 million ton standard coal1 Wind energy 2000-2005 growth rate 20%by the end of“Eleventh five”5 million kilowatt 1-3 megawatt wind electricity equipment is not available2 PV Solar radiation received 51022 joule by the end of“Eleventh five”0.4 million kilowatt3 Solar water heaterChina ranks first with 70 million m70 million m2 2Production capacity 10 million m10 million m2 2 per yearper year4 BiomassDomestic biogas plant 12 millionEthanolEthanol 1 million ton 1 million ton Bioelectricity Bioelectricity 2 million kilowatt(5 million by the end of eleventh five)2 million kilowatt(5 million by the end of eleventh five)