财务报表分析与证券投资研究报告bopb.pptx
财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华Guohua Jiang北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授Associate Professor of AccountingGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University1The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli(1445-1517)nHe wrote a famous mathematics booknIn one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnHe taught Leonardo Da Vinci perspective and proportionality.The knowledge was used to paint“the Last Supper”2n学过财务报表分析课程的请举手3Dow Jones Industrial Average 1930-20024DJIA,NASDAQ 1990-20025Back to Square One:DJIA 1998-20026D or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-20027The Three Major Stock Exchanges8The Regulator of U.S.Stock Market9The Current SEC Commissioners 10Who Issue American Accounting Standards?11International Accounting Standards12“Big Four”International Accounting FirmsnErnst Young(worldwide revenue 2002:$10.1 billions,4.3 billions in the U.S.)nPriceWaterhouseCoopersnDeloitte&TouchenKPMG13中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会(Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission)14Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges15Amount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets16Market Capitalization17Market Size relative to NYSE18Market Performance19Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms:1992-200420ROE21 Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%)22Share types in ChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegal personStateA shareB shareH,N,S,Share2324Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1 billion shares):State Shares 2410.61 46.20Domestic Legal Person Shares 663.17 12.71Other non-tradable Shares 331.07 6.4%Total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25Tradable:A Shares 1318.13 25.26%B Shares 163.09 3.13%H/N and other shares 331.94 6.36%Total Tradable:1813.16 34.75%Total:5218.01 100%25Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/TunnelingAn Example,Jiang,Lee and Yue,(2005)2627Chinas Stock Market:A ten-year perspectiveFrom zero to an important emerging capital marketFirst developed fast,then became stagnant:Fewer new listingsMarket index downRaises less capitalLess trading activitiesListed companies performed worseOverall Less important in the booming economy!28The Users of financial statementsnEquity investorsnCreditorsnGovernmentnCustomernSuppliersnLabor union29课程结构第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节 会计报表回顾-资产负债表第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量第六节 赢利能力分析第七节 赢利预测第八节 风险分析第九节 证券价值评估30Perspectives of This CoursenA security analysts perspectivenEmphasize two issues:Earnings Management and valuation31Earnings Management:Rao,Teoh,Wong,Review of Accounting Studies,199832Earnings Restatements Min Wu,HKUST333435Widespread Earnings Manipulation(Jiang and Wang 2005)36Accounting-based ValuationnWho are my peers?Earnings multiples,book-value multiples,sales multiplesnEVA,Economic value added,Residual income valuation(RIV),Edward,Bell,Ohlson Model(EBO)nIn one word,Share value=f(earnings,book value,dividend,cash flow,etc.)37Accounting-based Valuation-238How Important is Accounting Information?nJanuary 22,2003,after market closed,AT&T(stock symbol T)announced:Revenue for 4th quarter shrank to$9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous year Loss from continuing operations widened to$611 million from$216 million.39How Important is Accounting Information?(http:)40How Important is Accounting Information?nIn the weekend before Monday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announced fourth quarter results:nRevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9%to$1.56 billion.nNet income increased by 35%to$186.1 million.nEarnings per share(EPS)increased to 42 cents from 31 cents.41How Important is Accounting Information?4243Investing MottoTwo friends went hunting in the jungle.All of a sudden,a bear jumped out of nowhere and came after them.A:Run!B:No,it is hopeless,we wont overrun a bear.A:But I do not have to run faster than the bear.I only need to run faster than you!44Questions on stock market?45作业n六人一组n两个作业n每次课上分别布置作业，下次课上交，打印版n注意报告的形象美46作业1：n每组选一家中国上市公司做投资价值分析（非金融类公司）n使用该公司行业平均数据做比较，比如，行业平均利润率；或对比公司数据n使用最新年报n参见所附宇通客车公司分析报告47作业2：nExcel股票定价建模n和本课程一一对应n用不同的spreadsheet录入三大报表（最好有5年的）、发现赢余操纵、进行赢利分析、风险分析、赢利预测、建立价值模型n和作业1使用同一家公司nSpreadsheet之间要相互勾联n今后评估另外一家公司只需要重新录入三大报表即可n作业2的价值评估进入作业148
