珠宝行业FrankToney博士讲座（英文）33469.pptx
MGT251:Scheduling&CostControlDr.FrankToneyInstructor Notes1NotesforUMTPage1-1AgendaSchedule*StartStop*Breaksevery50minutesSocraticmethodMaterials:notebook,supplementalnotes,benchmarkingpracticesHomework:Olympicswebsites.Eachteam2articlesaboutcostsorschedule.NoteWebSiteTestonSundayBeijingOlympicscasestudyCulture2UMT1-1Franks bioEducation:MBAfromUofToledo,DoctoratefromNovaSoutheasternU,PMP.UOPDocLeadershipChair;GWU;UofCaliforniafaculty.Leadership:CEOof5companies;4boards,2trustsWriting:7leadership&projectmanagementbooks.Manyarticles.BoardofBest Practices Journal.Project Management:Projects inover20countries.PMI Activities:Standards,Research,Academiccommittees.Benchmarking:LeadTop500ProjectManagementBenchmarkingForum.120companies.Personal:Wife&3kids,liketofly.LiveinScottsdale,AZ3UMT1-1Introduction to Scheduling&Cost ControlIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control DocumentFlow4NotesforUMTPage1-1Introduction to Scheduling&Cost ControlIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control WhyScheduling&CostControlareImportantMajorproblemnowinI/Tindustry.300400%overestimates.HelpsallocateresourcesGuidesprojectperformanceEstablishesperformancebaselinesevaluateperformanceHelpsmanageprojectchange80%ofprojectproblemsoriginateinplanningPresentsimageofprofessionalism5NotesforUMTPage1-1Introduction to Scheduling&Cost ControlIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control ObjectivesoftheCourseImprove career opportunitiesImprove organizational performanceLearnestimatingthatisvalid,reliable,accurate.ApplyforecastingtechniquesUnderstandriskestimating&evaluationUnderstandtheWBS:itsimpactonscheduling,costing,riskanalysisInvestigatethecriticalchainconceptLearnprojectevaluationtechniquesUnderstandprojectcontrolmethodsDetailEVMtechniquesLearnprojectcloseouttools6NotesforUMTPage1-1Introduction to Scheduling&Cost ControlIntroduction to Scheduling&Cost Control StructureoftheCourseModule1:EstimatingModule2:EstimatingbestpracticesModule3:CostestimatingbasicsModule4:ForecastingModule5:Estimation&riskModule6:WBS&schedulingintroductionModule7:Criticalchain&timeboxedschedulingModule8:ProjectevaluationModule9:ProjectcontrolModule10:EarnedvaluemanagementModule11:Projectclose-out7UMT1-1Modules 1&2:EstimatingModules 1&2:EstimatingObjectivesofModules1&2ExplaintheimportanceofEstimatingDescribeestimatingproblemsPresentbestestimatingpracticesExplainmeasurementtheory&practice8NotesforUMTPage1-2Modules 1&2:Estimating Preamble 1-3Modules 1&2:Estimating Preamble 1-3PredictingtheFutureHistorical*Prophets,seers,visionaries*Twocomponents(a)theprediction,(b)hadtocometrue.*Spiritual,mysticalovertonesModern*Intuition*PragmaticIncludes*Quantitativeanalysis:math,observe,measure,replicate*Qualitative:abstract(love,spirit),intuition9UMT1-1Modules 1&2:Estimating(p 1-5)Modules 1&2:Estimating(p 1-5)Formalvs.InformalEstimatesFormalestimates:retainedaspartoftheprojectrecord.*Schedule*Budget*MemosInformalestimates:norecordkept.*Casualdiscussionsandpredictions10UMT1-1Modules 1:EstimatingModules 1:EstimatingTime,Money,Resources:Constraints&Assumptions11NotesforUMT1-10Module 2:Good EstimatingModule 2:Good EstimatingOther Estimating GuidelinesPaddingestimatesmeanstheprojectstartsonaninaccuratebaseEstimatesfailtoadequatelyaccountforriskScopechangesarenotaccountedforEthicaldilemmasresultfrompoliticalpressureandlowballingEstablishanaccuracystateofmindUsetheprojectteam12NotesfromUMTpage2-7Module 2:Good EstimatingModule 2:Good Estimating Establish Clear Measurement Metrics Metrics characteristics*Simple,easytounderstand,interpretandcompile,reliable,andcomparable*Lendthemselvestobeingrolled-upintoportfoliowidestatistics*EncouragebehaviorthatresultsinpositiveprojectandportfolioresultsMetrics Problems*Measurement,compiling,analyzingandreportingofperformancemetricsareexpensive*Face-to-facemanagementofprojectsmaybesacrificed*Toomuchemphasisoneasy-to-obtain quantitative metrics13NotesforUMTpage2-8Module 2:Good EstimatingModule 2:Good Estimating Potential Metrics Used CustomersatisfactionMilestonesDeliverablesCriticalpathmonitoringPeriodicreviewsFinancialandNontimebasedperformancemeasurementsOtherquantitativemeasurementsSubjectiveperformancemeasuresPortfolioperformancemeasurementsMeasurethecostofprofessionalprojectmanagersThecostoftheprojectorganization14NotesforUMTpage2-8Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating BasicsObjectivesofModule3Chartofaccounts&itsuseCostestimatingaccuracyBudgeting;topdownvs.bottom-upParametric/analogousestimatingDesigningtocostLevelofeffortestimates15NotesforUMTpage3-2Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Basic Estimating ConsiderationsTheprojectmanagerisresponsiblefortheprojectestimatesEstimatingistimeconsumingandexpensiveEstimatetoanappropriatelevelofdetailBudgetincashIncludetheforgottenitems(maintenance,pettycash)Communicatethemannerinwhichestimatescanchange16NotesforUMTpage3-2Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Communicate Assumptions and Level of Accuracy ConstructionI/S Order of Magnitude+75%to-25%+300%to+100%Budget Estimate+25%to-10%+100to+25%Definitive Estimate+10%to-5%+25%to-5%17NotesforUMTpage3-5Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Budget Type Impacts Speed,Efficiency and Effectiveness Bottom up budgets aredetailedTop down budgetsarefastZero base budgets justifyallexpensesandrevenuesCheck-book budgetsareeasiestPercentage base budgetingbuildsonasolidfoundationProgressive and rolling budgetscompensateforscopechanges18NotesforUMTpage3-9Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Universal Code of Accounts Increases Budget Accuracy Through Benchmarking19NotesforUMTpage3-15Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Percentage of Revenue:Combining top down&bottom up Prior Year%of Sales Next Year%of Sales (Same as Last Year)Cash inflowRevenue1,500,000100%1,650,000100%Cash OutflowCostofGoods1,000,00067%1,105,50067%-GrossMargin500,00033%544,50033%Direct Expenses:StoreRental72,0004.8%79,2004.8%Utilities 26,0001.7%28,0501.7%Labor180,00012%198,000 12%Advertising120,0008%132,0008%-TotalExpenses398,00026%437,250 26%Indirect Exp50,0003.3%54,4503.3%PROFIT52,0003.5%52,8003.2%(roundingerror)Mostpopularmethodofforecasting&budgetingAlwaysbudgetbasedonactualcashflows.Showcashinflowsandoutflowsnotpayablesandreceivables.20NotesforUMTpage3-18Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Define the Types of Costs Contained in the Budget Usestandard coststoincreasespeedandeaseunderstandingDirect costsareassociatedwithoneprojectIndirect costs&overheadarespreadovermorethanoneprojectBudget for direct or controllable expenses Variable vs.fixed costs.Q:Equipment.Fixedcostof$1,500.Variableof$100perunit.Whatiscostof10extraunits?(A:$1,000)21NotesforUMTpage3-18Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Cost Basic Estimating Tools and Techniques Learning curve*Parametrictool*Double#softimetodosomethingdurationoftimereduced.Law of diminishing returns.Q:extracostvs.extrarevenue.DepreciationCost management plan.Describesthemanagementofcostvariances(scopechanges)22NotesfromUMTpage3-18Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Team ActivityTeam ActivityThe Bid Proposal is the Toughest Budgeting Task Preparing the Bid ProposalYoursmallinformationsystemscompanyhasbeenaskedtobidaprojectforalarge,localoilrefinery.Thecompanyisknownforestablishinglongtermandprofitablerelationshipswithvendorsthathaveexhibitedsuperiorperformance.Itisimportantthatyourorganizationbeawardedthisbid.Youknowthattwoother,wellrespectedIScompaniesarealsobiddingthejob.Yourtaskistoprepareabudgetconsistingofyourbestestimateofthetruecostsoftheproject.Fromthis,selectabidprice.Clearlydifferentiatebetweenyourestimatedtotalcostforperformingtheprojectandyourbidprice.Rawdataisgivenonthenextgraphic:23NotesforUMTpage3-20Module 3:Cost Estimating BasicsModule 3:Cost Estimating Basics Break Out:Break Out:The Bid Proposal Raw Data ActivityEst.CostEst.TimeTot.Budgeted Cost1.Planning,prep.,drawings$1,500/dayfortheteam4-5days2.Hardware,webuildEstbuildcostis$20K,Weusuallymarkup45%3.SoftwareProgrammerpd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr30workdays4.VendorSW$300/computer.Plan6computers.Usuallymarkup25%5.InstallationInstallerspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr8workdays6.TrainingInstructorspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr5workdays7.FactoryOH20%ofprojectcost8.HeadofficeOverhead15%ofprojectcost9.ExWarranty2%ofprojectcost10.ShippingEst.$2,00011.Travel$350perdayEst4workdaysTotal24NotesforUMTpage3-20Module 4:ForecastingModule 4:ForecastingObjectivesofModule4Normativevs.extrapolativeforecastingTrendextrapolationMultipleregressionDelphiMethodology25NotesforUMTpage4-2Module 4:ForecastingModule 4:Forecasting Budgets and Forecasts can be more Accurate Contingency reservesreduceriskofoverrunsinmeetingobjectivesManagement reservesforunknownsBudget for accuracy,use contingency funds for riskApply contingency and buffer psychology26NotesforUMTpage4-32Module 4:ForecastingModule 4:Forecasting Parametric&Analogous Estimating Improve Accuracy through Simplifications Heuristicsgivearoughideaofcosts.Grossmargininmanufacturingthistypeofproductis45%.Parametric estimates aresimpleformulas.ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiswas$100perfoot.Thereforethecostwillbeabout$200,000.Analogous data isgainedfrompriorprojects.ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiscostabout$200,000.Iwouldexpectthisonetobeaboutthesame.IncludesdatabasesliketheUCOAccounts.27NotesforUMTpage4-32Module 5:Estimating&RiskModule 5:Estimating&RiskObjectivesofModule5ImpactofriskonestimatesEvaluationofriskfactorsEstimatingriskvs.uncertaintyIncorporatingpessimism(betadistributions)TriangulardistributionsMonteCarloAnalysisRiskassessmentgroupsLifecyclecostingDatagathering/databases28NotesforUMTpage5-2Module 5:Estimating&RiskModule 5:Estimating&RiskGenericRiskEvaluationMatrix29NotesforUMTpage5-5Module 5:Estimating&RiskModule 5:Estimating&RiskOtherSourcesofRiskIdentificationWBS:StillananimportanttoolStaffing plan:anypotentialpeoplerisks?Procurement management plan:opportunitiesorrisksrelatedtovendors?30NotesforUMTpage5-5Module 5:Estimating&Risk Module 5:Estimating&Risk EMV:Most Popular Quantitative Tools for Risk Analysis(PMBOK p139)Statistical independence:UsedforEMVanddecisiontrees.Tossingacoin.Eventsareindependentofeachother.Expected monetary value:Impactedbyrisk proneness orrisk aversivenessAmountValueProbabilityOf WinningEMV$50.01$.50$2.10$.200.89$.00Total1.00$.7031NotesforUMTpage5-5Module 6:The Work Breakdown StructureModule 6:The Work Breakdown Structure&Project Scheduling Basics&Project Scheduling BasicsObjectivesWorkbreakdownstructuredetailsofconstructionandbenefitsWBSasbasisforcostingWBSasbasisforschedulingSchedulingbasics32NotesforUMTpage6-2Module 6:The Work Breakdown StructureModule 6:The Work Breakdown StructureWorkBreakdownStructuredefinestheScopeoftheProjectWelovetheWBSHeartoftheprojectplanninganddefinitioneffort.Techniqueforbreakingdowntheprojectintoitscomponentelements.NotmandatorybutimportantNohardorfastrulesaboutputtingittogether.NotaaschedulingtoolDoesnotshowdependencies33NotesforUMTpage6-2Module 6:The Work Breakdown StructureModule 6:The Work Breakdown StructureWorkBreakdownStructureBenefitsShowstheprojectvisuallyBuildstheteamFocusesondeliverablesForcesplanningandmethodologyIdentifiesworkpackagesandgroupsofactivitiesServesasthebasisforscheduling,cost,specdetails,performancemeasurement,metrics.34NotesforUMTpage6-2Module 6:Project Scheduling Module 6:Project Scheduling Estimating Considerations:How Long is Time?WorkingtimeorworkdaysProductivetimeElapsedtimeProductivitylevelContinuousdurationDurationinterruptible 35NotesforUMTpage6-39Module 6:Project Scheduling Module 6:Project Scheduling Schedule Supporting Detail Responsibility assignment matrix.Activitiesandwhoseisresponsible.Resource spreadsheet.Effortneededfromeachresourceduringeachtimeperiod.Resource Gantt chart.Wheneachresourceisscheduledpertask.Resource histogram.Alternative schedulesScheduled contingency reserves.36NotesforUMTpage6-39Module 6:Project Scheduling Module 6:Project Scheduling Other Scheduling ConsiderationsResourceLevelingAddstimeusuallyResourceconstrainedschedulei.e.,cash,EinsteinTime-constrained(Y2K).Reverseresourceallocation37NotesforUMTpage6-39Module 7:Module 7:Critical Chain&Time-Boxed SchedulingCritical Chain&Time-Boxed Scheduling Objectives of the ModuleApplicationofcriticalchainasamanagementtoolInvestigatethepsychologicaldimensionsofschedulingUsingbufferstoincreaseschedulingaccuracyTime-boxedschedulingtoincreaseprojectspeedManagingtheplayersMiscellaneoustime-boxedissues38NotesforUMTpage7-2Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Increasing Project SpeedMulti-functionalprojectmanagementOverlappingprojectphasesModularize(sub-projects)ValueanalysisTimemanagement39NotesforUMTpage7-48Module 7:Module 7:Critical Chain&Time-Boxed SchedulingCritical Chain&Time-Boxed Scheduling Multi-functionalProjectManagement40NotesforUMTpage7-21&7-48Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling FastTracking:OverlappingPhases41NotesforUMTPage7-48Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Modularize(Sub-projects)forspeed42NotesforUMTpage7-48Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling FastTrackingValueAnalysisforimprovedspeedandcost*Revieweachactivityrelatedtotimeandcost*Criticallyreviewtheprocesses*Reviewelapsedtimevs.worktime*Canactivitiesbedoneconcurrently43UMT1-1Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling ValueAnalysisforSpeedPurpose:Thevalueanalysisisarigorousreviewofprojectcostsandworkpackages.Itisusedtoreducescheduledurationandcosts.ConsiderEliminationofanyprojectactivity,product,orservicecomponentthatdoesnotsatisfytheseevaluationquestionsWhatarehighestpriorities?Itclearlycontributestovalue.Itstime&costisproportionatetoitsusefulness.Alltheactivitiesandfeaturesareneeded.Itisthebestavailablefortheintendeduse.Itrepresentsthefastest&lowestcostmethodofattainingtheobjective.Itisfaster&lowercostthanastandardproductorcontractservicei.e.Itusesthepropertooling,equipment,(resources)andproceduresconsideringthevolumesinvolved.Itisfaster&lowercostthancomparablegoodsorservicesprovidedbysuppliers.Ourspeedisfastestandcostsarethelowestintheindustry.Itsspecificationsaretheleastrestrictiveneededtoachievetheobjective.Therearenowaystoreducetime&costthatwehavenotconsidered.Canweusestandardparts,components,approaches?44NotesforUMTpage7-48Module 7:Time-Boxed SchedulingModule 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling TimeManagementforSpeedHighschedule&costdisciplineBringinhigherqualityprojectleaderandteammembersInvolvevendors&stakeholdersWorklongerhours&weekends.Addextrashifts.AddpeopletocriticalpathUseextraresourcestocompletenon-criticalpathworkpackagesearly.Freeresourceslater.45NotesforUMTpage7-48Module 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Module 7:Time-Boxed Scheduling Discipline Increases Project SpeedPositivedefinitionfromtheGreek:totrain,instruct,correctMostresearchaboutteensWhyneeddiscipline:*Humannaturetoresistbeingforced;toquestionauthority*Desirepeerrecognition,attention,power,reve
