兰德-更具弹性的国家级卫星定位、导航和定时能力（英文）-2021.5正文版.doc

Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing CapabilityRICHARD MASON, JAMES BONOMO, TIM CONLEY, RYAN CONSAUL, DAVID R. FRELINGER, DAVID A. GALVAN, DAHLIA ANNE GOLDFELD, SCOTT A. GROSSMAN, BRIAN A. JACKSON, MICHAEL KENNEDY, VERNON R. KOYM, JASON MASTBAUM, THAO LIZ NGUYEN, JENNY OBERHOLTZER, ELLEN M. PINT, PAROUSIA ROCKSTROH, MELISSA SHOSTAK, KARLYN D. STANLEY, ANNE STICKELLS, MICHAEL J. D. VERMEER, STEPHEN M. WORMANHSACHOMELAND SECURITYOPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTERAn FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHSPublished in 2021PrefaceThe 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) mandated a study “to assess and identify the technology-neutral requirements to backup and complement the posi-tioning, navigation, and timing PNT capabilities of the Global Positioning System GPS for national security and critical infrastructure.”Having accurate PNT is essential for critical infrastructures across the country, and currently GPS is the primary source of PNT information for many applications. However, GPS signals are susceptible to both unintentional and intentional disruption, thus leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable. Because of the essential need for precise positioning or timing in many critical-infrastructure sectors, the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) was tasked to provide the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with a study of the costs and benefits of proposed new PNT systems for the various types of critical infrastructure.This research was sponsored by the DHS National Protection and Programs Directorate, Office of Infrastructure Protection, and conducted within the Acquisition and Development Program of the HSOAC federally funded research and development center (FFRDC).About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis CenterThe Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to pro-vide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation oper-ates the HSOAC as an FFRDC for the DHS under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007.The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of sig-nificance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private-sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDCs research is undertaken by mutual consentvviAnalyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capabilitywith DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under HSHQDC-17-J-00441, Analysis of Position Navigation Timing (PNT) Alternatives.The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opin-ion or policy.For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more informa-tion on this publication, see www.rand.org/t/RR2970.ContentsPreface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxv Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxviiCHAPTER ONEIntroduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Objective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Scoping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Outline of This Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8CHAPTER TWOConsiderations in Evaluating Backups and Complements to PNT/GPS Systems. . . . . . . 11 Prior Efforts That Examined the Value and Vulnerabilities of PNT Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Considerations in Evaluating Potential Backups or Complements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12CHAPTER THREEIdentify Threats and Vulnerabilities of GPS and Other PNT Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 A Systematic Way to Consider the Risks of a Full Range of Threats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Explicating the Threat Matrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21A Specific Case: Cyberattacks Against GPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35CHAPTER FOURConduct an Economic Analysis of the Damages Resulting from Varied Threatsto PNT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Approach for Conducting the Economic Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38viiviiiAnalyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing CapabilityEstimating Damages Due to a Nationwide Disruption of GNSS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Estimating Damages from Regional GNSS Jamming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Consumer Location-Based Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Commercial Road Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Emergency Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Surveying. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Maritime. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Railway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Telecommunications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Electricity Generation and Transmission. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Finance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Port Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Mining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Oil and Gas Exploration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73Multisector Regional Jamming Vignette: Los AngelesLong Beach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Some Historical Evidence Against Predictions of Extreme Disruption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77CHAPTER FIVEIdentify Alternative Sources and Technologies to Increase National PNTResilience and Robustness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Identifying the Technology Options for Increasing PNT Robustness and Resilience. . . . . . . 84 Considering System Performance Versus User Fidelity Ranges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113CHAPTER SIXConduct Cost-Benefit Assessment of Alternative Sources and Technologies toIncrease National PNT Resilience and Robustness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Considering the Costs of GPS Disruptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Considering the Relative Costs of PNT Options. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Considering the Potential Benefits from Different PNT Options. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Example Cases of Potential Losses Avoided from Threats and Hazards Comparedwith Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129CHAPTER SEVENSummary and Weighing Alternatives and Potential Federal Initiatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Impact of Worldview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132ContentsixInverse Problem: Assumptions on Threats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Potential Federal Actions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Final Observations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140APPENDIXESA. Nationwide Framework for Valuing the Change in Productivity Enabledby GPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143B. Supplemental Information on the Regionally Based Microeconomic andGeographic Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157C. Technical Overview of GPS Enhancements and Alternatives for DegradedGPS Environments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165D. Traditional Acquisition Versus Public-Private Partnership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201E. U.S. Commitments and Obligation to Sustain and Operate GPS. . . . . . . . . .